Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
CMA Publishes Latest Monitoring Report on Road Fuel Market
The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) reported that average fuel retailer margins in the UK held steady at roughly 10.5 pence per litre in March, despite a sharp price surge driven by the Middle East crisis – petrol up 26 pence/L and diesel up 50 pence/L. Local price gaps remain wide, letting motorists save up to £9 (about $11.5) per tank by comparing stations. The CMA has launched the mandatory Fuel Finder scheme and warned hundreds of forecourts to register, signalling tougher enforcement on pricing transparency.
Research: Enhanced Road Fuel Monitoring Report: May 2026
Britain’s Competition and Markets Authority released its May 2026 road‑fuel monitoring update, examining how the ongoing Middle East conflict has influenced UK pump prices, retail spreads and margins. The report covers data from late February through April 2026, comparing supermarket...
Why Abu Dhabi Walked Away From OPEC After Nearly 60 Years
Abu Dhabi announced it will leave OPEC after nearly six decades, citing a "pure policy change" driven by market fundamentals. The move ends a chronic quota dispute that costs the UAE more than $50 billion in foregone revenue as ADNOC expands...
UAE’s OPEC Exit Hands Asia a Petroyuan Moment
On May 1, 2026 the United Arab Emirates formally quit OPEC after nearly six decades, ending its participation in the cartel that underpins the petrodollar system. The departure frees Murban crude from the organization’s dollar‑only pricing rules, allowing contracts to...
Gold Loses Its Shimmer in Asia over Rising Oil Prices, Hawkish Fed Stance
Gold prices in Asia slipped 12% to $4,620 per ounce, retreating from a February peak of $5,248. The decline is driven by soaring oil prices amid the Iran‑U.S. conflict, which have reignited inflation concerns and pushed central banks toward a...
Could China Drive Oil to US$250/ Bbl?
The piece argues that monetary dynamics, not just geopolitics, drive oil prices, citing the 1973 Arab‑Israeli embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution as reactions to a weakening US dollar. It links those historic spikes to the collapse of Bretton Woods...
Coal India's Production in April Drops Amid Rising Power Demand
Coal India reported a 9.7% drop in April output, producing 56.1 million tonnes, while its offtake fell 2% to 63.2 MT. The decline comes as India’s power grid hit a record‑high peak demand of roughly 256 GW due to an intense heat wave....
Coffee’s Structural Bearish Shift Deepens Amid Historic Crop Expectations
Research firms now forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop above 75 million bags, creating a generational surplus that widens the global imbalance to its widest in six years. Vietnam adds pressure with robusta exports up double‑digits YoY, heading toward a four‑year production...
Engine Trouble Ahead? How the Strait of Hormuz Standoff Threatens Luxury Auto Giants
A prolonged standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is choking the flow of Group III and Group IV base oils, the key feedstocks for high‑performance lubricants. Prices for these base oils have surged nearly 100% in northern Europe since the Iran‑U.S. conflict...
Nigeria Caps Jet Fuel Prices to Avert Disruptions
Nigeria’s government imposed price caps on jet fuel and allowed airlines to buy on credit after fuel costs surged more than 270% in two months. The caps set jet fuel at NGN 1,760‑1,988 per litre in Lagos and NGN 1,809‑2,037 in Abuja,...
India's Sugar Exports to Be 7.5-8 Lakh Tonnes in 2025-26 Season on Weak Global Prices: Official
India’s sugar export outlook for the 2025‑26 marketing season has been trimmed to roughly 7.5‑8 lakh tonnes, down from the 2 million‑tonne ceiling initially set by the Food Ministry. The reduction reflects weak global price parity, which makes overseas shipments uneconomical....
Japan’s Petchem Supplies to Last Into Next Year: PM
Japan’s prime minister announced that naphtha‑derived chemical supplies will extend beyond year‑end, thanks to a surge in imports and continued domestic production. Naphtha imports from non‑Middle‑East sources will triple in May, reaching about 1.35 million kilolitres. Stockpiles of intermediates such as...
Comex Silver Grinds to a Halt
Comex silver’s open interest has plunged to under 100,000 contracts, the lowest level in more than 15 years. The drop accelerated after silver breached $40 per ounce and the May contract expired, leaving only about 95,800 contracts open. Market makers...
The Cost of Getting Energy Wrong
The UK’s aggressive net‑zero policy, anchored by subsidies for wind and solar and higher carbon costs, has driven domestic fossil‑fuel capacity down while pushing industrial electricity prices among the world’s highest. By raising the marginal cost of gas‑fired power about...
Gold Digger: Is US$8000 REALLY on the Cards?
Deutsche Bank analysts project gold could climb to $8,000 per ounce within five years if emerging‑market central banks allocate 40% of their reserves to the metal. The forecast follows a record‑breaking first quarter of 2026, where the World Gold Council...
Fine Merino Wool Prices Lift in Sydney and Fremantle Auctions
Australia’s wool market held steady this week as fine Merino prices rose in Sydney and Fremantle but slipped in Melbourne. Cross‑bred wool in the 26‑28 micron range saw price gains across the three auction centres. The Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) added...
S6 Ep12: May Market Update – La Niña, Diesel Shortages and a Record Cow Sell-Off
In the latest Weekly Grill episode, Matt Dalgleish and Chris Howie dissect how the Bureau of Meteorology’s La Niña forecast is tightening feed supplies across Australia. A record sell‑off of cattle in New South Wales has surged market activity, while diesel...
Gold Falls Around 2% in One Week as Skyrocketing Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Worries. What Lies Ahead?
Gold slipped about 2% over the past week as oil surged to $126 per barrel, reigniting inflation concerns and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates. Spot gold hovered near $4,620 an ounce, while U.S. June futures edged up 0.1% to...
EU Steel Demand Threatened by Early CBAM Import Advantage
EU steel demand faces CBAM timing risk as downstream imports may gain cost advantage before 2028. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/05/eu-steel-demand-faces-cbam-risk-before.html
Iran War May Cause Food Shortages in Africa, World’s Largest Fertiliser Firm Says
Yara International CEO Svein Tore Holsether warned that the war in Iran is driving urea prices up 60‑70% and tightening supplies of ammonia, the key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers. With 35% of the world’s urea sourced from Gulf states, Africa—already a...
US DOE Has Released 17.5 Million Barrels From the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Since March
The U.S. Department of Energy released 17.5 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve between March 20 and April 24, with a weekly peak of 7.1 million barrels – the highest since October 2022. SPR inventories fell to 397.9 million barrels, about 55 % of the reserve’s...
U.S. Crude Exports Poised to Fill Gulf Blockade Gap
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 30, 2026) US crude exports may be stepping up to fill the supply void left by Arabian Gulf blockades. Can American producers realistically bridge that gap? https://t.co/QiqCnvCaRc
Commercial LPG Cylinder Price Hiked by ₹993 to ₹3,071; Domestic Rates Unchanged
India’s commercial LPG cylinder rates jumped on May 1, with the 19 kg cylinder climbing ₹993 to ₹3,071 (≈ $37) in Delhi and the 5 kg free‑trade cylinder adding ₹261 (≈ $3). The domestic 14.2 kg cylinder remained unchanged, preserving the subsidy for roughly 33 crore households....
Price Dip Driven by Trader Positioning, Not Fundamentals
An ~$8 drop with no fundamental catalyst is almost certainly positioning and profit-taking @ALikhodedov The world didn't change overnight The price fell because traders hit "sell" The expiry may not be the only reason but the timing suggests that's a major factor. #OilMarkets...
No Change in Domestic ATF Prices, International Aviation Fuel Rates Revised Upward
State‑owned oil marketing companies kept Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices steady for scheduled domestic airlines in Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai, while raising rates for international operations in the May 1, 2026 revision. Domestic rates sit at roughly $1,280‑$1,340 per kilolitre after...
ERP Produce Shifts Sourcing to Europe and Africa as Middle East Conflict Spurs Fresh‑Produce Costs
ERP Produce, the fresh‑produce arm of Europe Retail Packing, announced a rapid overhaul of its sourcing model, moving volumes toward European and African farms after the Middle East conflict slashed Gulf‑linked airfreight capacity by more than half and drove polymer...
Anaconda Invest Posts 39% Q1 Gain by Betting on Energy, Says Trump Irrelevant
Anaconda Invest SA, a boutique Swiss hedge fund, posted a 39% return in the first quarter of 2026 by maintaining long positions in oil while deliberately ignoring President Donald Trump’s public statements about a possible Iran cease‑fire. The performance outstripped...
ASEAN Ministers Warn Middle East War Threatens Energy Security and Regional Growth
ASEAN economic ministers issued a joint communique warning that the war in the Middle East threatens global energy security and could markedly slow growth in the region. They highlighted that the Strait of Hormuz transports roughly one‑quarter of the world’s...
Lithium Prices Surge, Prompting Miner DSO Rush
We're now entering that phase of the lithium summer cycle where DSO makes its return. Resurgent lithium price sets miners scrambling to make lucrative DSO sales https://t.co/hnnHi7ZDud
From Surplus to Strain: Iran War and El Nino Threaten Global Rice Supply
Global rice supply faces new pressure as the Iran‑U.S. conflict chokes fuel and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, while an emerging El Nino threatens hotter, drier conditions across Southeast Asia. Farmers in Thailand, Vietnam and other top exporters are...
Trump Bets on Quick Iran Oil Crunch. Experts See Prolonged Pain and Rising Costs.
The Trump administration is pressing its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, claiming Iran’s oil storage is on the verge of collapse within days. White House officials argue the pressure will force Tehran to meet U.S. demands as gasoline...
It's Not Just Oil: Iran War Also Threatens Asia's Food Security
War between the United States, Israel and Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly a third of global fertiliser shipments. At the same time China imposed a 50‑80% ban on fertiliser exports to safeguard domestic supplies. The...
One Month to Oil at $200
Oil prices are edging toward the $200 per barrel mark, with analysts projecting the level within a month. After a brief overnight dip, Brent futures settled at $114 on April 30, reflecting volatility amid a stalemate in the Gulf region....
Zambia Raises Diesel and Kerosene Prices as Global Oil Costs Climb
Zambia’s Energy Regulation Board lifted diesel to K33.99 per litre (≈$1.77), kerosene to K35.05/L (≈$1.83) and Jet A‑1 to K37.98/L (≈$1.98) for May 2026, while petrol stayed at K27.15/L (≈$1.42). The hikes mirror sharp global oil price jumps—diesel up 23.11%, kerosene and...
Gold Posts Its Biggest 2-Month Drop Ever. How Its Price Could Still Doubl...
Gold futures recorded their steepest two‑month slide on record, marking the metal's biggest short‑term decline in history. The drop coincided with a strong U.S. dollar and higher real yields, which have pressured safe‑haven assets. Deutsche Bank, however, projects that gold...
EIA Report Shows Expanding US-Venezuela Oil Trade
U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude have risen sharply, reaching the highest weekly volumes since late 2018, according to the Energy Information Administration. The surge reflects a modest easing of sanctions that now permits limited PDVSA shipments to U.S. refineries. Imports...
Dakota Gas' Urea Focus Tied to Demand, Not DEF Rules
U.S. fertilizer producer Dakota Gasification says it is boosting granular urea output at its Beulah, North Dakota plant because imports have dried up, not in response to recent EPA guidance on diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) sensors. The company points to...
Market Watch: June Nymex Rises After Latest Storage Data
June NYMEX gas futures rose 12¢ to $2.767 per MMBtu after a weekly storage build fell slightly below analysts' expectations. Gelber & Associates said the lighter build signals a tighter market balance, noting higher residential and commercial consumption in cooler...
Oil Prices, Apr. 30, 2026
Oil prices ended April with heightened volatility, as Brent hovered near a wartime‑high of roughly $100 a barrel driven by blockade fears in the Middle East. ConocoPhillips announced it will maintain steady upstream activity through year‑end despite the price surge,...
U.S. Turns Net Crude Exporter Amid Overseas Surge
The surge in US crude oil overseas sales means the country was last week a net exporter of crude. (In the past, the US exported more crude oil *AND* refined products — combined — than it imported. But now it's an...
US Commercial Petroleum Inventories Drop Amid Crude Shortage
Sprucing up some EIA charts. Latest on weekly stocks. The total US commercial petroleum inventories **ex-NGLs** is a particularly important adjustment in the current crude-starved environment. https://t.co/gAJ30n96JT
Gold Rebounds as Speculation of Yen Intervention Weakens Dollar
Gold rebounded sharply, gaining 2.2% to trade above $4,600 per ounce after a three‑day decline, as the U.S. dollar slipped on speculation that Japan is intervening to support the yen. Spot gold reached $4,615.20 in London, while silver rose 2.6%...
Silver on Steroids: Why Platinum Group Metals Are the Commodities ASX Investors Are Sleeping On
Platinum group metals (PGMs) are entering a fourth straight deficit year, with the World Platinum Investment Council forecasting a 240,000‑ounce shortfall in 2026. Prices have surged, exemplified by platinum climbing 97% year‑over‑year to about $1,912 per ounce and palladium up...
2026 Growing Season Begins Under Shadow of Rising Expenses
U.S. farmers are starting the 2026 growing season amid sharply higher fertilizer costs. Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium prices have surged, with urea reaching four‑year highs, driven by Middle‑East conflict and broader energy price pressures. Iowa growers like Chris Edgington report...
ArcelorMittal Q1 Profit Falls 28% as Steel Demand Slows, Revenue Rises 4.5%
ArcelorMittal SA posted first‑quarter earnings of $575 million, a 28% decline from $805 million a year earlier, as the global steel market softens. Revenue grew 4.5% to $15.46 billion, reflecting higher pricing but lower volumes. The results underscore mounting pressure on European industrial...
Indian Rupee Slides Past 95 per Dollar as Brent Crude Hits $126, Triggering Capital Outflows
The Indian rupee breached the 95 per dollar mark on April 30, 2026, its weakest level since 2020, as Brent crude surged to $126 a barrel and external capital outflows intensified. Analysts warn the currency slide could erode corporate earnings...
EU Revives Renewables and Nuclear After €22 Bn Surge in Fossil Fuel Bills
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a €22 bn (≈$23.5 bn) jump in fossil‑fuel import bills after the Strait of Hormuz closure, prompting EU governments to fast‑track renewables and nuclear projects. An emergency package unveiled on April 22 adds coordinated gas...
BNEF Talk: Copper’s World of Wires, Wheels and Worries
BloombergNEF’s recent talk highlighted copper as a linchpin of the energy transition, powering electric vehicles, data centers, and future grids. A new S&P Global study warns that surging demand from artificial‑intelligence hardware and heightened defense spending will outpace production, deepening...
Daily Energy Report
U.S. crude output rebounded in February, climbing 389,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.626 million bpd, according to the EIA. Gains were driven by Texas (+246,000 bpd) and New Mexico (+190,000 bpd), while the Gulf of Mexico and North Dakota saw...
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Will Affect More than Gas Prices
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which moves about 20% of global oil and LNG, has sparked immediate spikes in gasoline and jet fuel prices. Experts warn that higher energy costs will cascade through supply chains, inflating prices of...