Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Correction to Steel Hot-Rolled Coil Import, Cfr Main Port Southern Europe Price on April 29
Fastmarkets issued a correction for its EU hot‑rolled coil import price, changing the range from €554‑652 to €590‑652 per tonne (approximately $643‑$711). The pricing database has been updated to reflect the accurate figures. The notice invites market participants to provide feedback or submit their own price data. This correction ensures that steel traders and manufacturers rely on reliable cost benchmarks.
$6 Gas in California Signals New Phase of the Global Energy Crunch
California’s average gasoline price has surged past $6 a gallon, the highest level since October 2023, while diesel now averages $7.48 per gallon. Nationally, gasoline hovers around $4.30 per gallon, keeping the politically sensitive $4 threshold in focus. Crude oil...
US House Readies E15 Floor Vote in May
The U.S. House will hold a standalone vote on a biofuel reform bill on May 13, aiming to lift the seasonal ban on gasoline containing up to 15% ethanol (E15). The legislation would standardize exemption rules, shifting eligibility from crude‑throughput...
Oil Price Shock Ripples Through Inflation, Rates, Stock Valuations
The Iran-Hormuz story is not "just geopolitics" Here is the money chain Supply threat pushes crude up higher crude feeds inflation expectations higher inflation pressure keeps rates sticky sticky rates compress growth-stock multiples So even if your portfolio has zero oil names...you still feel this through...
Singapore's Gold Imports From Dubai Hit Record Amid War
singapore is pulling in dubai gold as middle east war drags on. Imports of gold into Singapore from Dubai hit a record last month
Indonesian Exports to China Rise, Cushioning the Blow of Disrupted Middle East Shipments
Indonesian seafood exporters are turning to China as shipments to the Middle East stall amid the Iran‑Israel conflict. Chinese demand for high‑value species such as grouper, snapper and shrimp remains strong, keeping export volumes robust. Indonesia’s seafood trade to China...
The Perth Critical Minerals Report (04.30.2026): Dysprosium’s Price Drop Is a Mirage — Control of Supply Is Tightening
The Perth Critical Minerals Report shows dysprosium oxide has slipped 28.6% over the past year to $172 /kg, yet a 2.7% weekly rise to $179 /kg indicates the drop is more a correction than a collapse. China still dominates 85‑90% of global...
Japan’s March Industrial Output Slips 0.5% as Middle East Conflict Spikes Oil Prices
Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported that industrial output fell 0.5% in March, the first monthly decline after a 2% drop in February. The slide reflects higher crude oil prices and supply‑chain disruptions linked to the Middle East...
Oil Futures Surge as Fed’s Hawkish Tone Pushes Treasury Yields Higher
Crude oil futures jumped after the Federal Reserve issued a hawkish post‑meeting statement, citing elevated energy prices, while Treasury yields rose on the sell‑off in bonds. The dual shock sparked heightened activity in oil and Treasury options as traders priced...
Oil Prices Spike as US‑Iran Conflict Deepens, Raising Stakes for Emerging Markets
Brent crude surged to $126.41 a barrel and U.S. WTI to $108 as the United States escalated its blockade of Iran, prompting a $25 bn Pentagon cost estimate for the war. The price shock is straining emerging‑market importers and reshaping global...
MidDay Futures: Storage-Driven Pop Proves Fleeting as June Natural Gas Gives Back Gains
June NYMEX natural gas futures took over as the front‑month contract on April 29, 2026, edging higher after the latest EIA storage report but quickly surrendered those gains. The prompt‑month contract rose 4.5 cents to $2.692 per MMBtu before easing from...
Pentagon Cites $25 Bn Price Tag as US Escalates Iran Blockade, Lawmakers Demand Answers
Pentagon Comptroller Jules Hurst told the House Armed Services Committee the United States has already spent about $25 bn on the Iran war, mainly on munitions. The figure fuels a heated hearing where Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defended the blockade while...
Iran War Pushing India Back to Coal, Off Gas
The escalating US‑Iran conflict has tightened global LNG supplies, forcing India to lean on coal to meet its summer peak power demand. Traditionally, Indian utilities boost gas‑fired generation during April‑June, supported by government subsidies that cap retail electricity rates. With...
OPEC+ Delegates Expect Another Symbolic Supply Hike
OPEC+ is poised to add 188,000 barrels per day to its June output target, marking the group’s first production adjustment since the United Arab Emirates announced its departure. The increase will be approved in a video conference led by Saudi...
California Gas Prices Hit $6 per Gallon as Fuel Costs Jump Nearly 30 Cents in a Week Across the U.S.
California gasoline prices surged to $6.01 per gallon, the highest level since October 2023 and a 30% jump since the U.S. and Israel entered the war against Iran in late February. Nationwide, the average pump price rose to $4.30 per gallon,...
Oil Prices on a Rollercoaster Ride
The episode examines the sudden volatility in oil prices, which spiked to a four‑year high of $126 per barrel before falling $10 within hours, driven by escalating US‑Iran tensions and concerns over Iran’s dwindling storage capacity. Investment strategist Emma Wall...
Midmorning Markets: In-Line Natural Gas Storage Injection Supports Futures
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 79 billion‑cubic‑foot (Bcf) natural‑gas injection for the week ending April 24, a level well above historical norms but in line with market expectations. Storage volumes are now 7.7% higher than the five‑year average, with the...
Energy Impacts Podcast: Dan Doyle Talks About His Book, and His Journey in the U.S. Oil Industry
The Energy Impacts Podcast hosted by David Blackmon features Dan Doyle, President of Reliance Well Services and author of "Of Roughnecks and Riches," who recounts his decades‑long journey from a family drilling venture to founding a fracking company. The conversation...
Oil Prices Surge Past $120, Triggering Historic Energy Crisis
Brent crude oil has crossed $120/barrel for the first time since June 2022. The IEA is calling this the “biggest energy security threat in history.” We’re on track for the biggest oil crisis in decades.
Air Cargo Carriers Add Fuel Surcharges Driven by Iran War
Air cargo carriers are rolling out new fuel surcharges as the Iran‑related conflict drives jet‑fuel prices to near‑double historic levels. Spot U.S. Gulf Coast kerosene hit $4.03 per gallon on April 27, prompting carriers such as United, Air Canada, Cathay, ANA...
Fertiliser Output Steady Despite West Asia Crisis; Govt Secures 37 Lac Ton Urea Imports for Kharif
India’s domestic urea output held steady at 3.75 million tonnes in the March‑April window, matching last year’s levels despite the West Asia crisis. The government secured an additional 3.7 million tonnes of imported urea through a global tender to bridge the shortfall...
Oil Strikes 4-Year Peak, Stocks Rise
Oil prices surged to a four‑year high, with Brent crude briefly touching $126 a barrel as geopolitical tension over Iran escalated. President Donald Trump warned that a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports could extend for months, fueling fears of a...
Softs Report 04/30/2026
The latest softs report shows mixed price action across cotton, fresh‑citrus juice (FCOJ), coffee, sugar and cocoa as weather patterns, geopolitical tension and delivery activity shape market dynamics. Cotton slipped on expectations of rain in the western belt, while delivery...
Iranian Ports Could Be Blockaded for ‘Months,’ Says Trump
President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports could continue for months, as oil prices surged above $126 per barrel. The White House told oil executives the blockade would persist if needed, while U.S. Central Command readied...
Mid-Week Signals Check: Gold Backs Off the Risk-Off Flip
Gold prices retreated on Tuesday, pulling back from Monday's risk‑off rally and slipping below the $2,100 per ounce mark. The lumber market mirrored the move, with prices dropping about 3% as housing‑related demand softened. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields rose modestly,...
DRC Mineral Export Prices Rise Sharply as Key Metals Gain on Global Markets
Export prices for the Democratic Republic of Congo’s mineral portfolio surged between April 27 and May 2, 2026. Gold rose to $155.28 per gram and copper to $13,177.50 per ton, while Germanium jumped 32 percent to $8,208 per kilogram. Tin and aluminum also...
June Brent Expires, July Becomes New Prompt Price
Seeing some confusion on the feed re: Brent prices/volatility and today's expiry. Today is the last day of trading for Brent's June contract (white), and tomorrow the July contract (blue) becomes the "prompt" price most of us see when we search...
Whey’s Growing Influence on Dairy Price Dynamics
Butter prices are under pressure as abundant milk is being redirected into cheese and whey processing, swelling inventories and creating volatility. Cheese remains a stable, growing segment, while high‑value whey proteins are commanding premium prices and attracting new capacity investments....
Oil Hits $126 as Trump Threatens Iran, Adding Pressure to India's Economic Outlook
Oil prices surged to $126 a barrel after former President Donald Trump warned Iran of imminent strikes, while India’s finance ministry flagged a four‑fold shock—war, oil, rupee and rains—threatening its growth. The twin developments tighten inflationary pressures across emerging markets.
European Shares Brace for ECB and BOE Rate Holds as Oil Spike Fuels Inflation Fears
European equity markets are poised for a cautious open as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to keep rates unchanged. A sharp rise in oil prices, driven by Middle East tensions, is reigniting inflation worries...
How Markets Have Responded to Military Action Against Iran : Tracking Crude Oil Prices and Volatility with FRED
The U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iranian nuclear and military sites on February 28, 2026, catching oil markets off guard. Immediate tanker disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz on March 1 caused Brent and WTI prices, along with the VIX, to...
Fastmarkets Launches European Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp Outright and Premium Prices: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets has introduced a suite of eight new price assessments for European hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) FOB Amsterdam‑Rotterdam‑Antwerp, covering outright, premium‑to‑ULSD and gross‑margin spreads across four feedstock categories (crop, used cooking oil, tallow and palm‑oil‑mill effluent). The launch coincides with...
Iran Blockade Prediction Matches Current Brent Surge; Little Upside Left
In this post from back in March, I calculated that an Iran blockade would cause Brent to rise 80% from pre-war levels. That's exactly where we are now based on the July Brent future. The case for oil prices to...
Chicago Faces Diesel Shortage, Could Spread Nationwide
Chicago is way short on diesel. Hopefully not coming to a region near you. cc @JacobShap @Rory_Johnston
California Gas Tops $6, 40% Above National Average
Gas prices in California have moved up above $6.00/gallon, 40% higher than the US national average ($4.30/gallon). https://t.co/pB0UfwGqPX
UNG Faces $10 Support As
$UNG Daily. When upside breakouts continually fail for natural gas, we might as well see if downside support holds. Here, $10 looks like last stand for natty ETF. Held nicely back in January https://t.co/fzMTGrS8ZG
Brent Hits Four-Year High, Just as Predicted
Brent crude prices just HIT A FOUR-YEAR HIGH. I'M NOT SURPRISED. As I predicted on @davidlin_TV on March 29th, crude oil prices would SPIKE by the end of APRIL. IT’S APRIL 30th, and PRICES HAVE SPIKED. https://t.co/7Tvnl0ojr1
Global Grain Supplies Tightening, Prices Set to Surge
Traders: I am a trader primarily but also send periodic special reports to members of a private community. Here is a report I issued earlier in the week on grain markets https://t.co/Ghz72lxQY3
Complex Reality Beats Simplistic Gas Price Narratives
Part of why I love @sumitroy2 is he never takes simple explanations at face value: witness: 2 minute deep dive on the "hurr hurr califorinia gas prices" trope. The real world is complex. Don't let billionaires and politicians...
Gold vs Fed: Facts Over Feelings
Talking about gold and the Fed with @sonusvarghese on our latest Facts vs Feelings. 🪙 🥇 https://t.co/0u5OIKvnbL
Ethanol Beats Gasoline by 23% After Energy Adjustment
⛽️Ethanol is much cheaper than gasoline. Even after adjusting for its lower energy content, it was 23% cheaper than gasoline as of Wednesday, the biggest gap in data back to 2007. That helps explain why demand has held up, though summer driving...
92.5M Barrel SPR Swap Part of Existing 172M Deal
On the 92.5 million barrels SPR exchange, do NOTE this a tranche that's part of the **already announced** 172 million barrels exchange (it was announced March 12). This is NOT an additional release.
Demand Destruction Caps U.S. Diesel Deficit, Prices Lead
Ukraine Shock: U.S. diesel inventories led, prices followed Today: Prices lead—Demand destruction likely caps inventory deficits #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/FA6tDuU7W2
Futures
Futures markets suggest that trouble in the Middle East -- and higher energy prices -- will still be with us during the U.S. midterm elections in November. https://t.co/sX0oV15qiq
Molybdenum Prices Surge Past $28, $MOLY Near $3B Valuation
Molybdenum prices keep rising. Now firmly above US$28 lb/Mo. That's roughly $ 3bn for $MOLY Expect more announcement re financing and off-take agreement over the quarters. $150m market cap.
Japan Confident of Crude Oil Supply Through Year‑end
Japanese top officials say that "even conservatively, we expect to ensure supply [of crude oil] through the end of the year."
Record Beef Prices Trigger Shift to Other Meats
The biggest food price problem has nothing to do with the US-Iran war. Beef prices are rising higher, today setting a new all-time high above $2.55 per lb. The rise in beef is prompting demand switch to other meat forms, putting...
U.S. Export Sales Meet Expectations; Corn, Beans, Wheat Strong
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. export sales met trade expectations. Corn stayed above average for the time of year, led by Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela & unknown. China led in net bean sales (though most were switched from unknown), Egypt was 2nd. Old-crop...
Economist's Forecast Proven: Hormuz Strait Still Closed
The Economist cover is right this time [if Hormuz remains closed, which is still is] https://t.co/s9dyaHjaCU
Cascading Agrifood Shocks Demand Predictive Modeling for Resilience
Agrifood crises aren’t linear. Risks cascade over time. Example: @FAO's Hormuz analysis shows how energy shocks ripple through fertilizer, productivity and food security. Modeling can predict crises and identify policy combinations that boost resilience. https://t.co/xeHzPqdSuB