Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day, a symbolic adjustment as the war constrains output and shipments. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision, signaling alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Shell Trading secured the largest share of the first Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release, receiving 16.2 million barrels, followed by Trafigura (8.86 mn bl) and Marathon Petroleum (7.7 mn bl). The U.S. Department of Energy is delivering 45.2 million barrels of sweet and sour crude from Texas and Louisiana between 1 April and 31 May, with the option for earlier shipments. These allocations function as long‑term crude loans, obligating buyers to return 18‑22% more oil by September 2028. The DOE’s broader plan could release up to 172 million barrels this year to curb war‑driven price spikes.
You can hold that garbage can full of gasoline and wait for higher prices, but risk Trump TACOing and prices dumping. Or you can simply sell the garbage can of gasoline into spot and buy the same garbage can back for...
GOLDMAN: “We upgrade our price forecast for two reasons. First, we now assume that Hormuz flows remain at only 5% of normal levels for a longer 6-week period before a gradual 1-month recovery. Second, a recognition of the risks from...
Coal is re‑emerging as a key fallback fuel after the Iran‑triggered Operation Epic Fury disrupted global gas supplies. The International Energy Agency now projects 2026 coal demand at a record 8.85 bn tonnes, a 0.5% rise, while thermal‑coal prices have jumped...
Gold has slumped 18.6% from its January 28, 2026 all‑time high of $5,589 to $4,575, marking a 9.6% weekly drop—the steepest since September 2011—and setting up its worst month since October 2008. The decline is not rooted in a fundamental...
Forget TSA lines, the real problem with air travel in the coming weeks is fuel. Some cargoes are already diverting toward the U.S. on a Jones Act waiver, so domestic travel might hold. Europe? Different story. About 1.77M barrels/day of jet fuel...
U.S. gasoline prices have jumped over 30% in a month, with the national average climbing to $3.88 per gallon from $2.93. The article argues that the single dominant factor is the global price of crude oil, which is rising due...
Oil futures surged on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran of bombing its power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz reopened within 48 hours. Brent crude rose 1.27% to about $113.5 a barrel and WTI to $99, pushing...
⚠️ Iran threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz is NOT just geopolitical noise. It’s the single biggest macro risk in the market right now. ~20% of global oil flows through that choke point. If it closes: • Oil spikes • Inflation rebounds • Risk...
The Devil's Metal: Silver and Risks of Contagion - Silver's 1Q pump-then-dump may prove contagious. The so-called "devil's metal" has lived up to its reputation, reversing a 63% year-to-date gain on Jan. 28 to a 5% decline on March 20....
Bloomberg’s Emerging Markets podcast notes that soaring oil prices have forced a revision of global interest‑rate expectations, unsettling the once‑popular strategy of investing in emerging‑market local‑currency bonds. The energy price shock is prompting investors to unwind positions as higher rates...
The last LNG tankers from the Gulf arrive in the next 10 days. After that, many countries face a sharp drop in supply. Qatar's Ras Laffan — 20% of global LNG — could be offline for 3-5 years. Fossil fuel...
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, it’s still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) that’s a ~$2.5...
Equity markets are underestimating the risk of a major energy shock from a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could choke global oil and LNG supplies. While U.S. economic growth remains solid, driven by fiscal stimulus and a manufacturing...
Finacial Times. LNG from the Middle East expected to stop within 10 days. More supply and maritime problems ahead.
More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed. The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices. https://t.co/qqyd5NrZQ8
India’s coal imports slipped 4.2% to 213.1 million tonnes in the April‑January window, with non‑coking imports falling to 127.8 MT while coking imports rose modestly to 50.4 MT. The decline reflects a deliberate push toward self‑reliance as domestic output expands. Seaborne coal prices...
🌽Money managers as of March 17 held their most bullish position in CBOT corn fut & opt since late Feb. 2025, as more shorts were forced out of the market. That marked funds' 9th consecutive week as net corn buyers, their...
DXY up 3% in a month on safe-haven demand. Oil up 50%. Dollar up AND oil up simultaneously. Emerging markets are getting crushed from both sides. This is the squeeze nobody is modeling. https://t.co/xogAtPGq0m
Recent attempts by the IEA and the United States to flood the market with strategic petroleum reserves—totaling roughly 572 million barrels—failed to curb soaring oil prices. Even temporary waivers that allowed the sale of sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude did not...
By what? Giving waver to Putin to sell his oil freely at prices we have not see since 2022? 😉
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... European Natural Gas: +85% Heating Oil: +80% Brent Crude Oil: +54% Urea: +48% WTI Crude Oil: +46% Gasoline: +44% Diesel: +42% Sulfur: +25% Coal: +24% Fertilizer: +23% Palm Oil: +13% US Natural Gas: +8% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7%
The Philippines imports roughly 60% of its coffee, leaving the market vulnerable to global price swings. Nestlé Philippines, which generates $3.2 billion annually, sources only 20% of its Nescafé beans locally and is spearheading a push for self‑sufficiency. Domestic green‑bean output...
Everything this guy says is fake or misleading. The chart is one of taxes, not RE cost https://t.co/LxtCmfzTkR RE correlates with lower, not higher, electricity prices. Of the 14 states meeting 50-124% of demand with WWS, 12 are 2-5...
OUT NOW - @JLinvilleFert on how Strait of Hormuz's closure has blocked >30% of world's fertilizer exports & degraded farming economics. Upward fert & food price risk. It's bad. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc YouTube📽️ https://t.co/qx5Od1DJd1 https://t.co/uA1oP879mc
The Trump administration temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian crude already en route, issuing a 30‑day license that could add about 140 million barrels to global markets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the move is meant to boost supply and limit China’s...
As a first for me, I'm recommending @paulkrugman as a weekend read/listen. @robin_j_brooks makes it possible with a discussion on the Hormuz shock. https://t.co/aQ64hxAHxb
The Oil Shell Game: Peeling Away the Bluster of the Latest Oil Announcements. Trade. https://t.co/FyQ7lGbyR5
Traders now view crude oil as the primary market barometer, with price spikes translating directly into inflation expectations and policy signals. Goldman Sachs outlines a $150‑per‑barrel Brent scenario driven by a domino chain of supply constraints in the Gulf, creating...
Iran struck Qatar's gas infrastructure. Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter. This isn't just oil at risk. It's the entire Gulf energy supply chain. $XLE is at all-time highs for a reason. https://t.co/7TjuVfAelG
"U.S. retail gasoline prices respond to Brent and WTI before January 2010 and then only to Brent afterwards." (Note: this study is from 2019)
The Trump administration issued a one‑month license that will free roughly 140 million barrels of Iranian oil already at sea, a move designed to ease soaring global fuel prices as the Iran‑Israel conflict tightens supply. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and President...
Of course you can paint all kinds of horror scenarios for oil prices. But they require two things: (i) a collapse in oil export volumes out of the Gulf from current levels near 10 mmb/d; (ii) a price elasticity of...
Funny math. If Dec oil meets futures. The YoY inflation of oil will be roughly 40%. Pick your inflation basket weighting and any feed through to core . Headline CPI direct is roughly 7%. Others...
"World faces gas supply cliff edge as Gulf’s final LNG shipments approach ports" https://t.co/OjcnxXcs8a "China gets 30 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf but has some domestic gas production and can switch to coal-fired power generation if needed." https://t.co/ikbgxbUPhV
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Wafer prices fall on weak demand #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/Lzcqrequzf
Threats are flying between the US and Iran, but what matters for oil prices isn't words but deeds. Those deeds are that big oil tankers with capacity of 2 million barrels keep docking at Kharg Island to fill up. This...
Gas only sets Spain's electricity price 15% of the time. When gas costs spike it barely registers on the electricity bill. In countries like Italy and the UK gas sets the price 90% of the time. The difference is enormous. I...
As fully expected when I said March 3, that the selling had just begun and higher oil would spike global yields. NOW, the market has finally changed its outlook and now expects a lot more volatility. I even gave my 🎯🔥⏳ https://t.co/FoGQa6x3Hh
“Just because oil prices have spiked higher on geopolitical risk does not mean that US oil companies will drill baby drill"
"Fertilizer Shock Escalates as New Supply Risks Emerge" https://t.co/lgfrgMYRFg "almost half of the world’s supply of sulfur—which is turned into sulfuric acid for the processing of phosphate fertilizer—comes from countries in the Middle East" And US tariffs are making things worse:
The UK should consider temporarily capping the profits of energy companies to protect consumers as prices spike in the wake of the Iran conflict, a top government adviser says https://t.co/fNlKVlPQy2 https://t.co/Smfsfn7hi3
400 million barrels. Largest emergency stockpile release in history. $BRN still at $112. The market is telling you exactly what it's pricing: this won't be enough. Think. https://t.co/t5SmTDXuzM
Three weeks into the Middle East war, this is where we are from an energy point of view - a nightmare scenario. A weekend read from @Reuters https://t.co/xnlY5DLrvT
TACO is not an option for Trump, writes @biancoresearch He can't leave Iran in control of Hormuz Crude won’t calm down and markets won’t recover. #IranWar #Hormuz #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Trump #Geopolitics #Macro #MiddleEast
I continue to expect crude prices to grind $2-3/bbl higher every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But if you start playing energy facility tit for tat that trend starts getting some step-change bumps real quick.
Everyone is watching oil in dollars. Almost nobody is watching oil in yen. That's where the real risk is. If Japan panics, the carry trade unwinds again — and this time it won't be a two-day event. I laid it all out on CNBC...
Iran’s attacks on Qatar’s LNG export plant could be one of the biggest tailwinds yet to the fast-growing US LNG sector 🇺🇸 🚢 🇹🇼 Taiwan said it plans to buy more LNG from the US from June 🇧🇩 Bangladesh is exploring...
In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, "that means $250-$300 price of oil (Brent)" argues @Rory_Johnston. Because a giant price shock is needed to destroy 15 million barrels per day of demand $220+ "almost guaranteed." https://t.co/fnf6ENgf0N https://t.co/yakBRYsHgc
Exactly as I warned in advance - TWICE now: Mega Silver Bubble Meets Mega Gold Bull Market - BEFORE a 7-sigma downdraft https://t.co/8hEosW0Op2 and just last week: Gold Is Just Another Risk Asset Now - BEFORE the latest sell-off https://t.co/BiIpfFJ2fA #MarketTiming
