Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Yara Warns Iran War Could Spark Fertilizer Price Surge and Food Shortages in Africa
Yara International’s CEO Svein Tore Holsether warned that the Iran war has driven urea prices up 60‑70% and could trigger a global fertilizer auction, leaving Africa’s most vulnerable farmers unable to afford inputs. The warning comes as supply chains scramble with reduced ammonia output and limited stockpiles, raising the specter of food shortages across the continent.
Odisha Kicks Off Mango Season with First Domestic Shipment
Odisha’s 2026 mango season kicked off with a 3‑tonne domestic shipment from Dhenkanal to Siliguri, organized by the Madanmohan Farmer Producer Company under the National Cooperative Development Corporation. Farmers saw price realization jump to ₹45 per kg (≈ $0.54) from ₹25...
Venezuela Oil Exports Hit 7-Year High as U.S., India, Europe Ramp Up Buying
Venezuela’s oil exports jumped 14% in April to 1.23 million barrels per day, the strongest monthly level since late 2018. The surge was driven by higher shipments to the United States, India and Europe after U.S. sanctions were eased and a...
Oil Rally Stalls as Iran Proposal Triggers Profit-Taking
Oil prices stalled below $110 per barrel after a week of extreme swings, with Brent’s June contract briefly touching $126. The slowdown was driven by Iran’s latest negotiation proposal, which sparked profit‑taking amid uncertainty over President Trump’s 60‑day war‑powers deadline....
Supply‑Side Risks Bolster Zinc Prices Amid Trade Volatility, BMI Raises Forecast to $2,950/Tonne
Research firm BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, lifted its 2026 zinc price forecast to $2,950 per tonne, up from $2,780, citing persistent supply‑side risks. The revision comes as zinc consumption growth slows to 1.9% and trade remains erratic after...
Gas Prices in Great Lakes Region Jump by 84 Cents Per Gallon in One Day
Gasoline prices in Indiana jumped 84 cents per gallon on May 1, marking the steepest one‑day increase in the United States. Analysts attribute the surge to heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict, a blockage in the Strait of Hormuz, and an...
India’s Wheat Procurement Down 9% on Lower Buy in Madhya Pradesh
India’s wheat procurement for buffer stocks slipped 9% year‑on‑year to 23.25 million tonnes (mt) as of April 30, 2026, driven primarily by a sharp decline in Madhya Pradesh where purchases fell 59% to 2.75 mt. Despite the dip, Punjab and Haryana outperformed their...
Could OPEC Lose Its Grip on Oil?
The United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, ending a six‑decade partnership that had bolstered the cartel’s credibility. While Saudi Arabia retains the lion’s share of spare capacity and Russia continues to back the...
Silver's Next 7-Year Low Predicted for Late 2029
$Silver - The next 7 year cycle low is due in late 2029, let's say in November 2029. No one in the silversphere thinks that silver is in a bear market which probably means that it is. The January top...
Permian Discounts Intensify While North American Natural Gas Forward Prices Slide
Physical natural gas markets weakened on April 30 as Texas and Midcontinent prices fell, while the Permian Basin saw its discount widen to roughly –$8 per MMBtu. May fixed‑price contracts slipped 16 cents, and forward prices across North America retreated...
Biofuel Use Pushes up Food Prices: Is Demand Here to Stay?
Recent oil price spikes from the Iran war have accelerated biofuel production, putting upward pressure on food commodities used as feedstocks. In the EU, 39‑44% of biodiesel and in the US 70‑80% comes from crops such as vegetable oil, corn...
Wavelength Podcast: Tanker Market Insights as Gulf Conflict Continues and UAE Leaves Opec
The latest Wavelength podcast examines how the tentative Iran‑US/Israeli cease‑fire and ongoing blockades of the Strait of Hormuz are sustaining high tanker‑market rates. Angelica Kemene of Optima Shipping Services discusses the potential shift in crude flows if the United Arab...
Softs Report 05/01/2026
U.S. cotton futures surged as dry conditions in Texas persisted and the dollar slipped, while delivery notices remained low at 389 contracts for May. Coffee markets showed strong activity with 825 delivery notices, but prices stayed mixed amid shipping disruptions...
Brent Prompt Price Shifts From June to July Contract
On the Brent futures contract roll: The "price" everyone typically talks about is the prompt Brent (or WTI) futures price (white on the chart), which is the nearest-dated monthly contract. In April that was set by the June contract (blue), now in...
Gold Flat While Silver Rallies, And CNBC Tries Another Peace Deal Headline
Gold futures held steady at $4,616 per ounce on Friday, while silver futures jumped $2.13 to $76.15. CME silver inventories continued their decline, reaching 315.2 million ounces, the lowest level since November 2024. U.S. silver bullion exports surged to 95...
Oil Market Will Need 2.7 MMbpd Surplus Post‑Hormuz
We're actually really going to *need* a supply glut after this end to fill in the hole left by Hormuz. Minimum 1 billion barrels lost, requires an *annual* surplus of 2.7 MMbpd to recover. And that assumes Hormuz reopens today, which it...
Oil Falls as Iran Proposes Talks but Prices Still Set for Weekly Gains
Oil prices slipped on Friday as Iran submitted a new negotiation proposal to the United States, but the market remains on track for weekly gains. Brent futures fell 0.2% to $110.14 a barrel, while WTI dropped 1.7% to $103.24. Despite...
Oil Prices Up 11% for the Week
Oil markets saw Brent crude dip 0.5% to $109.88 a barrel on May 1, yet the benchmark remains up about 11% for the week as geopolitical worries linger over a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure. The price pressure keeps U.S. gasoline...
Middle East Fertiliser Crisis Likely to Hit Smaller Bulk Carriers
Yara International’s CEO warned that soaring fertilizer prices and a Gulf shipping bottleneck could trigger a global auction, hitting the poorest nations hardest. Around 300 bulk carriers, primarily 20,000‑65,000 dwt handy‑class vessels, are stranded in the Gulf, holding 1.9 million tonnes of...
Bank of England Holds Rate at 3.75% Amid Energy Shock Risks
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 8‑1 to leave the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% on April 30, citing the risk of material second‑round effects from an energy price shock tied to the Middle East war. The decision...
U.S. Wheat Futures Hit Fresh Highs Above $7 on Weather, Fertilizer Shortages
U.S. wheat futures rose above $7 per bushel, reaching fresh contract highs as dry weather, delayed spring‑wheat planting and global fertilizer shortages tighten supply outlooks. The rally lifted nearby corn contracts and sharpened the contrast with soybeans, which faced profit‑taking...
The Iran War Doesn’t Have to Be a Rerun of ‘That ’70s Show’
The Wall Street Journal op‑ed warns that the Iran‑Israel conflict could push crude to near $100 a barrel, reviving the oil‑price shock that helped trigger the 1970s stagflation. However, the United States now runs a net oil export surplus and...
War Sparks Massive Commodity Surge, Stocks Rise, Volatility Falls
Since the start of the Iran war... Jet Fuel: +80% Sulfur: +68% Heating Oil: +56% WTI Crude Oil: +55% Brent Crude Oil: +52% Diesel: +48% Gasoline: +47% Urea: +47% European Nat Gas: +44% Fertilizer: +23% Coal: +13% Palm Oil: +13% Iron Ore: +8% Wheat: +6% S&P 500: +5% $VIX: -15%
Market Open: Natural Gas Futures Probe Higher, Fall Back as Bullish Catalysts Proving Elusive
Natural gas futures posted their biggest one‑day gain since March 11, driven by a 12‑cent jump and a modestly bullish storage report, before slipping back as demand forecasts turned bearish. Physical markets weakened across Texas and the Midcontinent, while the EIA...
Global Market Overview Asparagus
Asparagus markets worldwide are in a transition phase, with Europe flooded by a post‑heatwave harvest that is depressing prices, while North America faces tighter supplies that keep spot rates elevated. Italy saw a 17.2% weekly price drop to €4‑€4.5/kg (≈$4.4‑$5.0/kg),...
Ri6 Durian Prices Plunge to Record Low on Surging Thai Supply
Vietnam’s Ri6 durian prices have collapsed to a record low of $0.75‑$1.32 per kilogram as Thailand’s peak harvest floods the regional market. Musang King and Monthong varieties are now selling at roughly half their early‑year prices, while grade‑A fruit fetches...
China Tightens Screws on Rare Earth Production
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced draft regulations that would impose strict production quotas and licensing requirements on rare‑earth miners. The measures target over‑production that has depressed global prices and aim to stabilize the market ahead of President...
Inflation Surges, Gas Prices Spike as Trump’s War Batters U.S. Economy
U.S. consumer inflation jumped to 3.5% in March, driven largely by a 21% surge in gasoline prices amid the Iran‑Russia conflict. Pump prices now average $4.30 per gallon, with diesel climbing to $5.50, pressuring household budgets. The Federal Reserve signaled...
Southern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast: Production Down 6 Percent, Exports Expected to Rise 4 Percent
The World Citrus Organization’s preliminary forecast shows Southern Hemisphere citrus production slipping 6% year‑over‑year to about 26.4 million tonnes, while exports are slated to grow 4% to roughly 4.74 million tonnes. Orange output is projected to drop over 8% to 17.5 million tonnes,...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
The market is in consolidation as traders brace for the weekend and a slate of holidays that curb trading activity. Crude oil prices rebounded overnight, providing a lift to the soy and corn complexes through light technical buying. Wheat futures...
Inventories Acting as Shock Absorber of Global Oil System
J.P. Morgan analysts say global oil inventories are now the primary shock absorber amid war‑driven supply disruptions. The world entered 2026 with 8.4 billion barrels in storage, 6.6 billion on‑shore and 1.8 billion afloat, but only about 0.8 billion barrels are readily usable without...
Petrol and Diesel Rates Could Rise in Near Future. Here’s Why
India’s four‑year freeze on retail petrol and diesel prices is under pressure as global crude oil surged to $126 per barrel, well above the $110 threshold. State‑owned oil firms report losses of roughly ₹20 ($0.24) per litre on petrol and...
Sugar Recovery Gains Momentum, but Global Supply Expansion Still Caps the Upside
Global sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to reach a record high, driven by output gains in Brazil, India and Thailand. India has approved its full export allocation and signaled no restrictions, adding further supply pressure. In Brazil, soaring gasoline...
Antimony Scarcity Threatens Supply Chains as Demand Soars for Flame‑Retardants and Batteries
Analysts warn that surging demand for antimony in flame‑retardants and next‑generation batteries could trigger a resource conflict, as the metal’s reserves are concentrated in a handful of countries. At the same time, new financing models such as tokenized mining assets...
July Brent Front-Month Sets Path to Wartime High
BRENT’s futures contract for July has replaced June as the front-month, temporarily reducing headline oil prices, but the trend remains upward as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz causes oil supplies to tighten. In a strongly backwardated market,...
West Braces for Next Wave of Oil Rationing
Headed into month three of the oil crisis, the energy rationing that hit Asia and Africa is headed West. JPMorgan's commodity desk put out an internal memo recently that made the rounds. The Strait of Hormuz closure removed 13.7 million barrels...
UK Faces Largest Jet Fuel Deficit in Europe as Prices Spike to $209 per Barrel
Allianz’s latest report shows the United Kingdom has the deepest jet‑fuel deficit in Europe, about 200,000 barrels per day, and price spikes from $99 to $209 per barrel. Experts warn the shortfall could trigger widespread flight cancellations and higher ticket...
Gas Prices Surge From $2.80 to Over $4.60
How to win friends and influence people: National average gas price is $4.39 today, but heading to $4.60-ish over the next week. Was $2.80 at the start of the year. https://t.co/WZder6FJCU
Venezuelan Oil Becomes Viable only Above $110/Barrel
what changed? Oil prices & global inventories At $60/barrel Venezuelan oil is too risky/unprofitable. At $110/barrel Venezuelan oil looks investable
Oil Prices Hit Four-Year Highs as Iran-Hormuz Tensions Spur UAE Exit From OPEC
Brent crude surged to its highest level since 2022 on April 30, 2026, as the Iran‑Hormuz conflict tightened supply. The same week, the United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from OPEC after nearly six decades, citing Hormuz disruptions. The twin...
Commodities Reemerge as Strategic Assets Amid Bull Market
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index continues to show impressive strength, even as both oil and gold continue to churn. And the secular bull market (per the CRB index below) also remains intact. In an increasingly fragmented world, commodities are become strategic...
Meeting Maurine Haver Before Oil Price Blockade Talk
This is me with Maurine Haver at the Cornell Club yesterday before I’m about to present on oil prices and the Iran blockade to the Forecasters Club of NY. Maurine built Haver Analytics from scratch and is one of the...
Brent Crude Surges Past $125 Amid Iran‑Hormuz Standoff, Fuel Prices Spike Globally
Brent crude climbed above $125 a barrel on Thursday after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and President Donald Trump's hard‑line stance, sending gasoline in the United States past $4 per gallon and lifting UK petrol and diesel to...
Geopolitical Turmoil Directly Raises UK/EU Household Energy Bills
Me in FT today: “Given that around 80 per cent of UK and European energy still comes from fossil fuels and a large share of that is imported, every geopolitical shock becomes a household bill shock.” More below. https://t.co/qH7tYyZDBT
US Diesel Inventories Won’t Hit Zero, Prices Stay High
Sure @NGLFundamentals But his main point is that US inventories will reach zero I don’t see that happening High diesel prices + recession/depression from Iran War shortages ==>rapid drawdown to some baseline =•=>flat inventories, tight market, lower but still high prices
Diesel Prices Surge as Inventories Plummet, CI Turns Negative
You’re directionally right but volumetrically off @HFI_Research Diesel leads—price is already decoupled from comparative inventory When CI turns negative, price spikes Demand destruction will cap how low inventories fall #Diesel #OilMarkets #Energy #Commodities #Inflation https://t.co/Kagb6TSzbm
Brent Futures Up 85% YTD Challenges Price Hype
Lots of scare stories about how oil prices will rise indefinitely. None mention the fact that the front-month Brent future (pink) is up 85% so far this year. If you think prices should rise more, you first need to explain...
China's Q1 Gold Demand Hits Record 362 Tons
China's gold demand in Q1 just hit a RECORD HIGH of 362 tons. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/i4imHfn9jj
Chevron Beats Q1 Estimates Amid Higher Prices, Strong Refining
BIG OIL 1Q EARNINGS: In line with its peers, Chevron reports stronger-than-expected earnings, with higher prices offseting some output losses (in part due to shutdown in the neutral zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia). Interesting to note very strong refinery...
U.S. Adjusts Petroleum Use After 1974 Arab Embargo
U.S. PETROLEUM supply and consumption and changes in response to the Arab oil embargo in the first quarter of 1974 (estimates taken from the report on Emergency Preparedness for Interruption of Petroleum Imports into the United States published by the...