Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
Ireland launches €250M relief package as heating oil prices double
Heating oil prices in Ireland surged from about $545 to over $1,090 per fill within a month amid the Middle East conflict. The government responded with a €250 million ($273 million) relief package that includes excise cuts and a diesel rebate, though experts say a national energy‑security strategy is still lacking.
Also developing:
By the numbers: Oil majors acquire $164M of Alaska oil leases
Refined product shipments on medium‑range tankers from the US Gulf to Europe broke the $100 per tonne barrier for the first time in nearly two decades, reaching $108.08/t on a Worldscale 545 voyage. The surge is linked to Iran's de‑facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz following recent US‑Israeli strikes, eclipsing the previous peak set after the Ukraine‑driven Russian diesel bans. Traders are now hiring MR vessels for atypical routes, such as to South Africa, while Jones Act waivers are tightening the US Gulf spot‑tonnage pool and further lifting rates.
India’s food consumption shows early strain as the Iran‑Israel conflict curtails LPG supplies, forcing hotels, restaurants and street‑food vendors to cut operations. Over the past three weeks wheat‑flour sales fell 5‑7% and edible‑oil demand plunged, with palm oil usage down...
Month two. No de-escalation. More troops. Kharg Island occupation being planned. In my experience, markets that price short conflicts and get long ones reprice quickly and painfully. Kharg Island handles 90%+ of Iran's oil exports. The implicit assumption built into current market prices...
U.S. natural‑gas inventories withdrew 43 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week to March 20, trimming the year‑over‑year surplus to about 101 Bcf. The lower‑48 storage balance is projected to end March at roughly 1,846 Bcf, still 68 Bcf above the 2010‑median but narrowing the...
Commodity Context released its March 2026 Global Oil Data Deck, highlighting the profound impact of the Iran‑War‑driven Hormuz stoppage on oil balances. Confirmed production shut‑ins are set to push the market into its largest deficit on record through March, while...
Silver plunged to a intraday low of $61.00 on March 23, marking its weakest level since December 12, as risk‑off sentiment swept markets. The metal quickly recovered, climbing back to $70.75 by late morning, erasing much of the early loss. Despite an...
Metal and mining exchange‑traded funds now control roughly $826 billion, with 84% allocated to physical metal ETFs—gold alone accounts for about $577 billion. By contrast, funds that own mining equities represent just over 12% of assets, leaving critical‑mineral ETFs at a modest...
Oil prices plunged more than 5% after President Donald Trump suggested his team was discussing an end to the Iran conflict, a claim Tehran denied. The comments temporarily eased geopolitical risk premiums, prompting a sharp sell‑off in crude futures. In...
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a pause on attacks against Iranian energy assets, prompting a risk‑off wave that pushed April Nymex natural‑gas futures lower. The diplomatic de‑escalation eased Middle‑East tensions, further depressing global gas prices. At the same time, weak...
President Donald Trump ordered a five‑day suspension of U.S. strikes on Iranian power facilities, saying “very good and productive conversations” had taken place. The pause follows a 48‑hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and comes as oil prices...
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) trimmed its 2026 global oil‑glut forecast to 1.87 million barrels per day (bpd) in the March short‑term energy outlook, down from 3.05 mbpd projected in February. Quarterly projections show a modest surplus early in the year,...
In this episode, Richard Stevenson of Pendle Commodity Investments explains why capesize freight rates surged in early 2026, highlighting the unexpected boost from Guinea’s bauxite shipments and elevated bunker costs due to Middle‑East tensions. He outlines the political risk of...
Kamoa-Kakula's #copper smelter is currently producing 1,600 tonnes of high-strength sulphuric acid per day. We are currently selling this acid for between $470/t and $500/t to local mining operations in the DRC Copperbelt that critically need the acid to leach...
🇺🇸Monday's flash sale of U.S. corn was the first since March 4, and the bean sale was the first since Feb. 12. These also marked the first U.S. flash sales explicitly to Mexico since Dec. 17 (corn) and Jan. 13 (soybeans)....
Global demand for copper and lithium is surging as electrification, AI data centers, and defense spending accelerate, pushing copper prices up 53% to around $13,000 per ton and keeping lithium in a $11,500‑$28,500 range. Analysts forecast a copper production deficit...
I don't think we'll see Silver go substantially lower from here. It's quite clear that there's the range. In between $65-90 I'd expect volatility to slow down. Given that there's been so much upside in these assets, the money is likely...
CHART OF THE DAY: Brent crude oil has settled today below $100 a barrel (at $99.94 a barrel). As the chart shows, still way higher than pre-crisis levels, but also well below the peak reached during the early days of...
Rising demand from LNG terminals, industrial plants, petrochemicals and power generators is tightening U.S. pipeline capacity, forcing natural‑gas end users to rethink supply strategies. The surge pushes LNG feed‑gas deliveries toward 20 billion cubic feet per day, creating price spikes during...
IEA released 400 million barrels. The largest emergency release in history. Oil is STILL above $110. $112.76 Brent right now. When the biggest intervention ever can't move price, the supply damage is real. $XLE https://t.co/dls2Gube4l
Jet fuel prices have DOUBLED to over $200/barrel since the Iran war. Asian airlines and energy suppliers face MAJOR SHORTAGES. SIGNS OF A MAJOR CRISIS ARE APPEARING: Thousands of flights have already been canceled AIRLINES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO...
Portugal is close to meeting EU criteria for declaring an energy crisis as natural‑gas wholesale prices surge past €180 per megawatt hour (about $195) and are 85% above pre‑war levels. If the European Council confirms the crisis, the government could...
Non-consensus view here @fejau_inc @qthomp ... Feels like short term inflation expectations are likely making a top here. Obviously this has a lot to do with oil. If oil can't go any higher on the headlines now, time to pay attention.......
Depending on where the WTI crude oil front month closes the day, we are looking at either the biggest single-day drop since Jun 23, 2025 or Mar 9, 2022. Either way...massive day...and yet still over 36% higher than the 200-day...
China's National Development and Reform Commission trimmed a planned gasoline hike, setting the average pump price at $4.70 per gallon instead of the slated $5.10. The adjustment follows a 20% price surge since the Iran conflict began and aims to...
"We're focused on and worried about the rise in oil prices, but it's the rise in interest rates that can actually have a broader negative impact on the global economy..." 🎙️ @pboockvar, CIO @onepointbfg https://t.co/JjvKGO6Kfq
I used Claude to draw a chart that captures how I see the Fed's asymmetric reaction function towards oil. https://t.co/q9WcR7aCNC
US President Donald Trump’s fluctuating threats and subsequent pull‑back on striking Iranian power plants sent oil prices tumbling and sparked sharp moves in grain futures. Canola, soybean, corn and wheat contracts all slipped, with canola down $6‑7 per tonne and...
$92… no $110… wait $75… now $87 a barrel Now trading — Crude Oil (Brent & WTI) Powered by @HyperliquidX 24/7 oil markets, users can trade monthly, weekly, and daily Predictions 🛢️ https://t.co/7TwArSgY9T
Oil sinking back toward those reaction lows... WTI $87 Brent $99 Gasoline futures down 36 cents https://t.co/68SjGUaFW0
Gold futures opened at $4,495.20 per ounce on March 23, 2026, slipping 0.09% from the prior close of $4,499.36. The metal has fallen 10.8% over the past five trading days, reflecting short‑term volatility. Despite the dip, gold posted strong gains...
Current Gulf production shut ins alone, if held at current levels through end-March, will result in roughly 200 million barrels of crude *not being produced* over the first ~30 days of the Iran War Not simply displaced supply, but barrels that...
Thanks to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is ‘closed’. As a result, countries worldwide are facing a gas supply CLIFF-EDGE. LNG from Qatar is NOWHERE TO BE FOUND. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/qE8zgTwxgC
Oil prices have surged as the Strait of Hormuz closure removes roughly 20% of global supply, double the impact of the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war. In the week of March 9, U.S. diesel jumped $0.96 per gallon to $4.86, marking the largest...
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the physical oil market is tighter than the financial oil market is reflecting, particularly for refined products. The scarcity, particularly in Asia, is “not fully priced in the oil futures curve,” he says. #CERAWeek
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says that U.S. oil production probably reached a “plateau” over the last 6 months or so — too early to say whether growth would re-start as it would depend whether current prices stay or not.
🇧🇷Brazil's soybean harvest was 68% complete as of last Thursday, well below the year-ago pace of 80%. https://t.co/CzD6l0Ilyg
one of the more useful ways to track market tension in Iran is the spread between WTI and Brent crude (nearest contract). Here a 1 yr chart, lower pane shows the spread. src: BBG https://t.co/o0tLpkaSdP
This is correct So much of the world now can increasingly just be driven by overconfidently posting through it—but not oil, not for long Hormuz flow still hasn't resumed and every day we're shedding more oil from the system That'll catch up—can't jawbone...
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the US flow rate from the SPR exchange would amount to be 1.0-1.5m b/d and says the total IEA release would come close to 3m b/d. (Those are the first flow rates estimates publicly discussed...
Watch Oil Moving on ‘A Couple Words and a Tweet,’ Atlantic Council’s Wald Says - Bloomberg @ACGlobalEnergy #oott https://t.co/YElH8A8ORG
Goldman: "Higher energy prices will boost global headline inflation sharply in the next 1-2 months.... our country-specific rules of thumb imply that the shock will add 0.8pp to global headline inflation over the next year under our baseline and 2pp...
Brent is down to $100. The latest de-escalation signal is worth about as much as the escalation signal Saturday night, but - underneath all that - it's clear that high oil prices scare this administration as much as they scared...
its the "biggest ever shock to global oil supply", as people keep pointing out, but the US economy is also less oil-intensive than it has ever been.. https://t.co/zk9SxpcEA5
A Classic End to A major Gold and Silver Correction like we're seeing occurs when Metal Prices Fall but Miners Hold steady then Begin to rise, giving the all-clear signal- that's what investors should be watching this week. $GLD $SLV...
In this podcast conversation with @paulkrugman from last week, we debate my view that oil prices are near their peak because large risk premia are priced into oil that embed substantially reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Watch...
Crude Oil creating one of the largest monthly bearish reversal patterns in its history, as it tests the top of its trading range? $USO $SPY $TLT https://t.co/GivNir6qgu
Global LNG exports drop to the lowest level in six months due to Middle East conflict ⚠️ 🚢 This basically erases supply additions from the US and elsewhere during that period The drop is primarily from Qatar — and to a...
European natural gas prices drop as much as 9% after Trump said he instructed US forces to postpone all strikes against Iranian infrastructure for 5 days 🇪🇺 ⚠️ Prices still well above pre-war levels And there’s been no direct/indirect contact...
People had lots of questions about the oil shock after this weekend's podcast with @paulkrugman, including on all the different types of oil and which one is most important. I've been pounding the table that oil prices have peaked, so...
The outage at the world’s biggest LNG export plant in Qatar is apparently benefiting Russia 🇷🇺 ⚠️ Russia’s largest LNG producer Novatek has signed a preliminary deal to supply Vietnam, Tass reported citing CEO Mikhelson (Vietnam is struggling to buy LNG...
