Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Nitrogen Prices Surge as Middle East Conflict Tightens Fertilizer Supply
LSB Industries warned that North America faces a nitrogen shortfall while CVR Energy’s fertilizer segment posted a $25 million EBITDA gain, underscoring how Middle‑East geopolitics are driving sharp price spikes in nitrogen‑based fertilizers and pressuring global food supply chains.
India’s Below‑Normal Monsoon Forecast Fuels Inflation Fears
India’s Meteorological Department projected the 2026 southwest monsoon at just 92% of the long‑period average, classifying it as below‑normal. The shortfall raises the risk of higher food prices, nudging CPI inflation to 3.4% in March and prompting the RBI to...
Marine Fuel Prices Surge, Prompt Slow‑Steaming as Shipping Grapples with Middle East Tensions
Singapore’s bunker fuel prices hit a record $1,450 per metric tonne, the highest since the early March conflict, prompting shipping lines to adopt slow‑steaming. The move eases port congestion but lengthens transit times, raising concerns for global trade and commodity...
Saudi Arabia Set For Oil Windfall After Hormuz Boosts Prices
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has split Gulf oil exporters, giving Saudi Arabia and Oman a revenue boost while the UAE sees a sharp decline. Saudi rerouted 4 million barrels daily to the Red Sea, lifting weekly oil revenue...
Russia’s Oil Revenues Surge as the World Scrambles for Supply
Asian buyers are snapping up discounted Russian crude as global supply tightens, driving a sharp rise in Moscow’s oil revenues. China imported a record over 100 million tonnes in 2024, while India’s imports doubled to about 2.25 million barrels per day in...
Gas Prices Are Surging Fastest in 5 States that Backed Trump — and Consumer Sentiment Hit an All-Time Low
Gas prices in the United States have surged above $4 per gallon, the highest level since July 2022, as crude oil climbs past $100 a barrel amid the Iran conflict. The five Midwestern states that supported Donald Trump in 2024—Indiana, Michigan,...
Oil Prices Spike to $111.4 Brent, $105.4 WTI as Iran‑U.S. Ceasefire Gains Traction
Brent crude jumped to $111.42 a barrel and U.S. WTI to $105.40 after the White House announced a ceasefire with Iran, reviving optimism in the market. The price rally follows a brief plunge when early reports suggested Iran’s response to...
Impact of UAE’s Exit From OPEC
The United Arab Emirates has formally exited OPEC, giving the world’s third‑largest oil exporter freedom to set its own production levels. By pledging a gradual increase in output, the UAE could add modest supply that eases price pressures in the...
US Still Reliant on Persian Gulf Oil and Resources
Tell me again how the Persian Gulf does not impact the US? 8% of our oil imports (approx 250M bbls) comes through the Strait of Hormuz. The world is pulling WTI crude out of the US at record levels, along with refined...
US Met Coal Isn't "Dead" – But The Indices Are
The author argues that US metallurgical coal isn’t a dead market, but the price indices—especially Platts—are. While Argus and McCloskey provide occasional assessments, Platts’ benchmark, which settles most contracts, publishes daily numbers based on infrequent, often weekly, market observations. This...
Southern Copper and Vale Report Negative Copper Costs as Gold and Silver Credits Surge
Southern Copper Corp. and Vale SA announced that copper production costs turned negative in the January‑March quarter, with Southern Copper reporting a cash cost of minus 11 cents per pound after by‑product credits. The shift reflects record gold and silver...
PacifiCorp Joins Western Day‑Ahead Market, Opening New Venue for Power Futures
PacifiCorp, Wyoming’s largest utility, started trading in the newly launched Extended Day‑Ahead Market on the Western grid, giving the company access to a broader pool of buyers and sellers. The market, run on CAISO’s network, is expected to generate new...
West Asia War Threatens EMDE Growth, Pushes Inflation to 5.5% and Strains Trade Routes
The IMF’s April 2026 outlook warns that the renewed Iran‑Israel clash could cut emerging‑market growth to 3.9% in 2026 and push consumer‑price inflation to 5.5%. The shock is already rippling through energy markets, commodity prices and Indian seafarers stranded in...
ExxonMobil Q1 Upstream Production Rises 8% Amid Middle East Disruptions, Earnings Drop 46%
ExxonMobil posted Q1 2026 earnings of $4.18 billion, down 46% from a year earlier, but its upstream segment grew 8% year‑over‑year despite external disruptions in the Middle East, Kazakhstan and a Permian winter storm. Management highlighted record Guyana output, a new...
Exxon Mobil’s Golden Pass LNG Train Boosts U.S. Export Capacity as Pipeline Projects Accelerate
Exxon Mobil’s Golden Pass LNG Train 1 entered service in March, lifting U.S. LNG export capacity by roughly 5% and setting the stage for a 15% increase once all three trains are online. At the same time, DT Midstream and MasTec announced...
Tether’s Gold Reserves Near $20 Billion After Buying Over 6 Tons in Q1
Tether Holdings SA added more than six tons of gold to its balance sheet in the first quarter, lifting its total bullion holdings to $19.8 billion (about 132 tons). The surge makes the stablecoin issuer the biggest non‑government gold holder and...
Crude Surge Is a Price Shock, Not Supply Shock for India: CEA Nageswaran
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran told the ICPP Growth Conference that the recent surge in crude‑oil prices is a price shock, not a supply disruption for India. He outlined four transmission channels – higher oil‑price inputs, trade slowdown, sticky logistics costs,...
Wirth Warns Global Energy System Under 'Extreme Stress'
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC that the ongoing U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran is pushing the global energy system to "extreme stress." He warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil...
World Bank Warning as Energy Prices Set to Soar
The World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook warns that global energy prices will jump 24% in 2026, reaching the highest levels since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Brent crude is projected to average $86 a barrel in 2026, up from...
Oil Marketing Companies Seek LPG, Petrol, Diesel Price Hike as Iran War Deepens Losses
India’s state‑run oil marketing companies are pressing the government to lift retail fuel prices as crude oil spikes above $126 per barrel amid heightened Middle East tensions. Crude prices surged after the U.S. signaled a continued naval blockade of Iran,...
UK Airlines Cite Jet Fuel Shortage, Warn of Summer Flight Cancellations
British airlines and airport operators warned on Wednesday that a tightening jet‑fuel supply could force flight cancellations across Europe this summer. Transavia, Ryanair and Volotea have already cut May‑June services, while the UK relies on imports for 60% of its...
US Futures Rise as Oil Slides on Iran Cease‑Fire Optimism, Apple Leads Tech Rally
U.S. equity futures edged higher, with the S&P up 0.3% and Apple surging 3.8%, after Iran submitted a response to U.S. cease‑fire amendments, sparking optimism that the Gulf conflict may de‑escalate. At the same time, Brent crude fell about $1...
Kailix Advisors Invests $8.4 M in Peabody Energy, Expanding Coal Exposure
Kailix Advisors LLC disclosed a new $8.38 million stake in Peabody Energy, buying 239,800 shares that now represent about 7% of its $114.34 million assets under management. The move highlights a niche fund’s willingness to increase exposure to coal amid a broader...
CPC to Keep Gasoline, Diesel Prices Unchanged Next Week
CPC Corp. announced that Taiwan’s recommended retail prices for gasoline and diesel will remain unchanged from May 3 to May 10, marking the fifth straight week of price stability. The freeze holds 92‑octane gasoline at NT$32.4 per liter (US$1.02) and premium diesel...
Oil Prices Fall as Iran Proposes New US Talks
Oil prices slipped on Friday after Iran signaled a willingness to restart talks with the United States via Pakistan, briefly pushing WTI below $100 a barrel. The dip was short‑lived, with WTI rebounding to $101.7 and Brent to $108.4 as...
Gold Consolidates in $4,600-$4,800 Range for Almost 2 Months. A Big Rally Brewing in May?
Gold has been confined to a tight $4,600‑$4,800 per ounce band since mid‑March, despite heightened Iran‑related geopolitical risk and strong central‑bank buying. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields, a firm dollar and expectations of prolonged higher rates are suppressing upside, while technicals...
Lifts in Steer and Heifer Values in Smaller 16,219 Head AuctionsPlus Offering
AuctionsPlus reported a 28% smaller offering of 16,219 head, yet clearance surged to 81%, up 19 points week‑over‑week. Steer and heifer categories posted double‑digit price gains, with lighter steers rising 41c to 511c/kg and heifers climbing 66c to 435c/kg. Northern...
India Faces Imminent Fuel and LPG Price Hikes
🚨 ANOTHER BAD NEWS FOR INDIAN PUBLIC 🚨 Insiders say - Fuel prices are set to rise in India soon. Petrol and diesel will get expensive by ₹4-5 per litre. Domestic LPG prices may go up by ₹50 per cylinder. WAS THE GOVERNMENT...
Underestimate at Your Peril — Hormuz Chokes Tropical Hardwood Supply
The February 28 closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a severe diesel shortage in Malaysia and Indonesia, pushing industrial diesel prices up 140% and crippling the region’s tropical hardwood supply chain. Logging concessions, log carriers and sawmills are...
Oil Crisis Deepens: Shrinking Stocks Guarantee Higher Prices
From the article in The Economist on "The crisis in oil markets will get bigger before it goes away: As stocks dwindle, further price rises are inevitable." #economy #oil #energy #markets @theeconomist
Trump's Strike on Iran Oil Could Cripple Global Supply
Targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure could be Trump's decisive move, writes @HolmanJenkins Losing that supply is a structural hit to a tight global system with lasting fallout. https://t.co/nRhyrPO9q8 #OilMarkets #IranWar #EnergyIsTheEconomy #Macro #Commodities
‘Trump Is an Idiot’: Californians Fume over Soaring Petrol Prices
Petrol prices in California have surged to $130 per tank, about $30 more since the United States and Israel began bombing Iran. The conflict, which started on Feb 28, has disrupted oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing gasoline to...
April RKEquity Scoreboard Highlights Lithium, Rare Earths
Check out latest #RockStockRecap, which includes a detailed run through #RKEquity April scoreboards for lithium, rare earths and minor metal equities. #GoLongWhereMemoriesAreShort 👇👇
Brent Climbs to $108.17, Monday May See Drop
Brent futures price rose $2.82 from $105.33 to $108.17 week ending May 1 Downward price pressure is likely on Monday based on 12-month spreads #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/rTch11BKet
Fuel Spike Is Coming: Relief at Bowser Not Tipped to Last
Australia’s regional oil benchmark Tapis crude surged to US$125 a barrel, the highest level since the 2022 Ukraine war, prompting expectations of higher pump prices. After a brief two‑week respite following a US‑Iran cease‑fire, fuel prices are set to climb...
Rural Angst Spikes as Democrats Gain Iowa Foothold
"The ratings reflect rural America’s economic angst amid rising fuel, fertilizer and other prices after a year of depressed commodity trade following President Trump’s embrace of tariffs."
U.S. Retail Electricity Prices Surge Ahead of CPI
American retail electricity prices are running very far ahead of CPI - striking report by Grace Fan featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/JRfEtYTzPA
Crude Oil Slides 3.3% to $101.79 as U.S.-Iran De‑Escalation Boosts Market Optimism
Crude oil prices plunged 3.28% on Friday, with WTI June futures trading at $101.79 a barrel, after reports that Iran offered a new peace proposal to the United States. The move lifted the U.S. Dollar Index to 98.22 and revived...
Rising Fuel Costs Threaten Spirit's Low‑cost Flights
You wonder what happened to Spirit Airlines? Kerosene prices doubled in the past 3 months… now poor and middle class Americans lost their low cost flight options. https://t.co/eKxpFeDYms
Oil Retraces 78% of Decline, Iran Drives May Outlook
$USOIL - At the intra week high crude oil retraced 78.6% of the decline from the March high to the April low but closed the week at 102.49. The price of oil in May will keep being determined solely by...
USGS Finds 2.3 Mt of Lithium in Appalachia, Enough for 130 Million EVs
The U.S. Geological Survey disclosed an estimated 2.3 million metric tons of lithium oxide in the Appalachian Mountains, a resource that could supply batteries for roughly 130 million electric vehicles. The find, described as a major contribution to U.S. mineral security, arrives...
Yttrium Shortage Threatens Aircraft; US Seeks New Sources
Yttrium is obscure and only traded in the thousands of tons each year. But aircraft will fall out of the sky without it. China controls production and has exported very little to the US over the past year. That might...
Wind and Solar Slash EU Power Prices by 24%
The data is in. Between 2023-2025, wind and solar slashed EU wholesale power prices by 24.2% on average. In Spain, the cut was nearly 40% This isn't a forecast, it already happened Renewables are the only cure for gas price insanity https://t.co/g6plOs37y2
Minerals Technology Posts 11% Revenue Rise to $547M in Q1 2026, Boosted by Specialty Minerals Demand
Minerals Technology (MTX) posted $547 million in first‑quarter 2026 revenue, up 11% year‑over‑year, as consumer and engineered‑solutions segments posted double‑digit growth. The company highlighted strong demand for specialty minerals used in mining, construction and environmental applications, while noting inflationary pressure from...
This Cycle Hinges on Duration, Not Breakout Shocks
Last cycle the market basically instantly unwound on the gasoline breakout + vice versa Very diff situation as it forced the Fed's hand et Having said that was curious the overlay, obv this cycle is more about duration/absolute levels vs say breakout/shock...
Falling On‑Water Oil Stocks Threaten Five‑Year Low
The @IEA report Oil Market Report for 14 April highlights the issue of falling stocks on water. Fortunately, inventories are high, but the rate of decline can place these inventories below the levels of the past five years very...
Iran War Spurs Record $2.3 Trillion Surge in Clean‑Energy Investment
The Iran‑U.S. conflict has forced oil‑dependent economies to double down on renewables, lifting global clean‑energy investment to a record $2.3 trillion. Analysts cite soaring oil prices, supply bottlenecks and energy‑security concerns as the catalyst for the shift.
TC Energy Launches $1.5 B Appalachia Supply Project to Meet Soaring U.S. Gas Demand
TC Energy Corp. unveiled the $1.5 billion Appalachia Supply Project, a low‑risk expansion of its Columbia Gas system aimed at the high‑growth power and industrial corridor in the United States. The move follows record natural‑gas deliveries, a 3% quarterly volume rise...
Rocky Mountain Power Joins Western Extended Day‑Ahead Market, Aiming to Cut Wyoming Rates
Rocky Mountain Power, the largest utility in Wyoming and a PacifiCorp subsidiary, began trading in the new Western Extended Day‑Ahead Market on Thursday night. The move could let the utility meet 100% of its demand through market purchases, up from...
Durian Express? New Southeast Asia Rail Service Cuts Fruit Prices in China
A new cold‑storage rail line linking Thailand, Laos and Yunnan province in China now moves durians at scale, reducing transit time from weeks to under two days. Operated by a joint venture of regional rail operators, the service lowers logistics...