Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
The Clock Is Ticking as Oil Markets Barrel Toward Nightmare Scenarios with the West Bracing for ‘Tank Bottoms’ and Iran...
The West and Iran face opposite oil emergencies as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, threatening “tank bottoms” for consuming nations and “tank tops” for Iran. Analysts warn OECD crude inventories could hit operational minimums by late May, while Iran may run out of storage within a month, forcing output cuts and floating‑tank solutions. Prices hover around $102 for WTI and $108 for Brent, but strategic releases and alternative routes only offer temporary relief. Exxon Mobil and other majors say the market still underestimates the looming supply shock.
The Trump Slump
The Trump administration is scrambling for an exit from the two‑month‑old Iran war, hampered by Israel’s demand for seized uranium and Gulf states’ insistence on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. Oil prices have surged above $125 a barrel, and...
Govt Says Auto Fuel Shortage Rumour Led to Panic Buys, Assures Stocks Adequate
The Indian government dismissed circulating rumors of a petrol and diesel shortage, confirming that all retail outlets have sufficient stocks and prices remain unchanged. It clarified that while commercial LPG prices rose sharply—about ₹1,000 ($12) per cylinder—the supply of domestic...
Global Aluminium Market Shaken but Resilient Amid Middle East Conflict
The ongoing Strait of Hormuz conflict has disrupted the global aluminium market, cutting off roughly 7% of supply and damaging about 3% of worldwide production capacity. Prices have surged to near‑historic levels, averaging $3,400 per tonne and are expected to...
ECB Holds Rates Steady as Energy-Driven Inflation Rises to 3%
The European Central Bank kept its deposit facility at 2.0%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% after its April 30 meeting. Inflation in the eurozone jumped to 3% in April, up from 2.6%...
UAE Leaves OPEC After Six Decades, Redefining Gulf Oil Strategy
Abu Dhabi announced it will quit OPEC after nearly 60 years, freeing itself from production quotas that capped its output at about 3.8 million barrels per day. The decision aligns with ADNOC’s 5 million‑bpd target for 2027 and a non‑oil GDP share...
Middle East Conflict Spurs Surge in Sovereign Bond Yields, IMF Warns of Crisis Risk
The International Monetary Fund warned that an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz could ignite a global financial crisis, sending yields on G7 sovereign bonds higher. The warning comes as oil prices have risen 66% since recent attacks, and...
WIN Advisors Puts $13 Million Into Harbor All‑Weather Commodity ETF
WIN Advisors, Inc. disclosed a new $13.13 million stake in the Harbor Commodity All‑Weather Strategy ETF (HGER), representing about 6.7% of its reported assets under management. The purchase, filed on May 1, 2026, signals a strategic shift toward inflation‑hedging commodities amid lingering...
Weakening Peso
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% as oil prices surged past $120 per barrel amid a renewed Hormuz blockade. The central bank aims to curb second‑round inflation and stabilize a peso...
Slowdown in Shipping Cargo Adds Pressure to Food Prices
The Philippines saw domestic cargo volumes drop 3% to 27.47 MMT in Q1 2026, while total port throughput rose modestly to 66.96 MMT. Shipcalls fell 1% for local vessels but foreign arrivals grew 6%, reflecting higher fuel costs that prompted shippers to...
Domestic Shale Keeps US Gas Cheap; Europe Pays Import Premium
The Shale Revolution gave US producers access to abundant domestic natural gas, which is why America can maintain low natural gas prices even amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Europe's natural gas prices, by contrast, are suffering because Europe banned fracking and...
US Is Oil Supplier of Last Resort as Hormuz Disruptions Worsen
The United States has become the world’s leading crude exporter, shipping more than 250 million barrels in the past nine weeks and overtaking Saudi Arabia as Hormuz disruptions choke Middle‑Eastern supplies. Domestic oil and fuel inventories have fallen for four consecutive...
OPEC Members Increase Oil Production Quota by 188,000 Bpd, No Word on UAE's Withdrawal Amid War in West Asia
Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC members announced a 188,000 barrel‑per‑day increase to the June production quota, effectively filling the gap left by the United Arab Emirates’ sudden withdrawal from the cartel. The boost mirrors similar adjustments made in...
Pakistan’s Inflation Soars Above 11% as Oil Shock Triggers Stock Market Crash
Topline Securities warned that soaring global oil prices tied to the Middle East war will push Pakistan’s inflation above 11% and force the State Bank to tighten rates. The surge in energy costs has already driven a 15% plunge in...
Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz, Slashing 25% of Global Oil Flow
Iran’s decision to block the Strait of Hormuz has halted roughly 25% of global oil imports, sending crude prices to four‑year highs. The move pits Tehran’s resilient oil‑export strategy against a U.S.-led blockade, while energy firms scramble to profit from...
IMO Pushes Net‑Zero Shipping Framework, Raising Stakes for Marine Fuel Markets
The International Maritime Organization advanced a net‑zero emissions framework for shipping at its MEPC 84 meeting, setting a decisive timeline for a global fuel standard and carbon pricing. The move pits the U.S. and Saudi opposition against a growing coalition...
Lynas Rare Earths CEO Amanda Lacaze on Having the Guts to Invest During a Price Slump
Lynas Rare Earths has locked in a $110 per kilogram price floor for its neodymium‑praseodymium alloy with the U.S. Department of Defense and secured a $258 million U.S. commitment for a heavy‑rare‑earth refinery in Texas. The company also signed a 10‑year...
Gold Notches Second Weekly Loss as US-Iran Talks Hang in Limbo
Gold steadied but posted a second consecutive weekly decline as traders weighed the stalled US‑Iran negotiations. Spot gold slipped 0.1% to $4,614 per ounce, extending a 14% loss since the conflict began in late February. A stronger dollar added pressure,...
A New MIT-Backed Tool Shows Exactly Why Your Electricity Bill Is Going up in Your Neighborhood — You Should Be...
Researchers at MIT and Heatmap News launched the Electricity Price Hub, a neighborhood‑level tool that visualizes how residential electricity rates and bills are evolving across the United States. Over the past five years, average rates have risen about 33%, adding...
IRGC Just Outdid Khamenei? Forces Kuwait to Halt All Crude Exports for the First Time in 35 Years?
On April 2026, Kuwait ceased all crude oil shipments, marking the first full export halt since the Gulf War. TankerTrackers confirmed zero outbound cargo, attributing the stoppage to heightened security risks in the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions....
U.S. Crude Oil Exports Surge to Record as Tankers Flock to Gulf Coast During Iran War
U.S. crude oil exports surged to a record 5.2 million barrels per day in April, driven by Asian and other buyers seeking alternatives after Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf Coast, especially the Port of Corpus Christi, saw unprecedented...
Aramco May Push OSP Release to June 7‑8
The V7, the group of 7 in OPEC+ will meet on June 7. Historically, they met earlier than the 5th of each month and Aramco issues its OSPs on the 5th. Reason? Two meetings are scheduled that day:...
Energy ETFs Jump 32% as Iran Conflict Fuels Oil Rally
The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) surged 32.07% year‑to‑date, driven by the war in Iran and related geopolitical shocks. Fellow oil‑focused funds such as XOP, FENY and AMLP also posted outsized gains, prompting investors to re‑evaluate exposure to the...
Middle East Conflict Spikes Oil Prices, Stalls Fed Cuts and Lifts Asian Bank Stocks
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged as the Iran war drove oil to four‑year highs, dampening hopes for near‑term cuts. In Asia, Singapore’s DBS Group posted a $2.93 billion Q1 profit, propelling its shares up 2.8% and buoying regional banking sentiment...
Crude Oil Breaks $100 a Barrel as Hormuz Tensions Spur Indian Airline Cost Crunch
Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel on May 3, spurred by renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions. The price spike is hitting Indian airlines hard, with jet‑fuel costs soaring and margins under pressure, while a VLCC carrying 1.9 million barrels slipped...
80% of Africa’s Fertiliser Is Imported: How Food Systems Can Adapt to the Iran Shock
The Iran‑Gulf conflict has sharply reduced urea exports, with Strait of Hormuz traffic down 95%, disrupting the global fertilizer supply chain. Sub‑Saharan Africa, which imports roughly 80% of its fertilizer from Gulf states, faces soaring prices and potential shortages. Past...
FY27 Earnings Growth May Drop to 10%: Jitendra Sriram on the Impact of Sustained $100 Oil
Jitendra Sriram of Baroda BNP Paribas warns that FY27 earnings growth in India could slow to 10‑12% as sustained $100 crude prices strain corporate margins and consumer spending. The two‑month West Asia conflict has already pushed the rupee to the...
The Hormuz Blockade: Why a Fragile Ceasefire May Not Lower Global Oil Prices
Brent crude surged to $125 a barrel, the highest level since March 2022, as naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz curtailed roughly one‑fifth of global oil flows. Iran’s conditional reopening and U.S. naval actions have left tankers stranded and insurers...
Commercial LPG Price Hike, Supply Crunch Push Restaurants to Brink
Nagpur’s restaurants are confronting a severe cost squeeze after the official price of a 19‑kg commercial LPG cylinder rose to ₹3,248 (≈$39), up from ₹2,059 (≈$25) just weeks earlier. The hike, combined with an ongoing supply crunch and black‑market rates...
Japan Locks Down Naphtha Supply Through 2027, Averting Petrochemical Shortfall
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced that Japan has secured enough petroleum‑derived naphtha to last into 2027, expanding procurement beyond the Middle East. The move aims to prevent a supply shock for the country's plastics and chemicals manufacturers as regional...
Trump Reviews Iran's 14‑Point Peace Plan as Oil Prices Top $108 per Barrel
President Donald Trump announced he is reviewing Iran's new 14‑point peace proposal while oil benchmarks surged past $108 a barrel. The move comes as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping global oil and LNG flows constrained and fueling...
Expert Raises Concern over Disruptions to Naphtha Supply
Academic Pakorn Opaprakasit warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict threatens naphtha imports, a critical feedstock for Thailand's plastic pellet production. He estimates pellet prices could jump 30‑40% and downstream packaging costs 60‑70%. The expert urged the Thai government to...
Libya's Oil Revenues Triple, Currency Gains 34% Amid Iran War
Since the start of the Iran war, Libya’s oil revenues have nearly TRIPLED, from $1 billion in February to $2.9 billion in April. Not surprisingly, in the Feb-April period, the Libyan dinar has appreciated by 34% vs. the USD. LIBYA = ONE...
UAE’s OPEC Exit Threatens Oil Price Collapse, Recession
Think oil prices are too high? Wait til they completely collapse and send us into an oil-based recession. The UAE’s exit from OPEC is very bad news https://t.co/TqXUsn8Djw
Aussie Food Consumers Are About to Get Eaten by Inflation
Australia faces a sharp rise in food prices as the Iran‑Israel conflict threatens the Strait of Hormuz, driving diesel costs and nitrogen‑fertilizer imports higher. With more than 70% of its agricultural output exported, the nation’s reliance on imported fertilizer and...
U.S. Natural Gas Growth Peaks in April, Then Falls
U.S. natural gas growth is expected to peak in April It is projected to decline through 2026 and beyond #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/LV8XoIfv25
Gas Hits $4.43, Near $5 Trigger for Republicans
According to AAA, the national average cost of a gallon of gas has climbed to $4.43, marking a new 4-year high. WHEN THE AVERAGE PRICE HITS $5/gallon, TRUMP AND THE REPUBLICANS WILL BE TOAST. https://t.co/JEq9VymiI7
Iran War Pushes U.S. Gas Prices to $4.39/gal, Crude Hits $103/Barrel
U.S. gasoline prices surged to $4.39 a gallon, the highest since the cease‑fire, while crude oil climbed above $103 per barrel after President Trump ordered a continued blockade of Iranian ports. The spike reflects a supply shock from the Iran...
Foreign Buyers Paying Premium Keeps U.S. Stock Draws Steep
Of course, there is no additional oil, beyond the SPR release—just the rest of the world still willing to pay more than Americans for American barrels, at least for now. So long as that’s true, more steep stock draws cometh. https://t.co/BvLo10lL0S
China May Begin Food Decoupling, FT Data Shows
Is China about to decouple on food? Riffing on a piece in the FT in the latest chartbook this morning. https://t.co/a0lMMdOOgC https://t.co/fqNWpHCXJi
OPEC+ Agrees in Principle to Raise June Output by 188,000 Bpd Despite Hormuz Closure
Seven OPEC+ members—including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia—reached an agreement in principle to increase June oil output targets by roughly 188,000 barrels per day, despite the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The hike mirrors April’s 206,000‑bpd increase, less...
Diesel Nears New All‑Time High, Trump May Trigger
If diesel rises another 17 cents, it will pass its all-time high. They said it couldn't be done, but Trump might do it https://t.co/BZjCIh8l7U
V7 Lifts OPEC+ Output Ceiling by 188,000 Bpd
OPEC+ group of 7, which I call now "V7," decided to increase production ceiling by 188 kb/d. Link: https://t.co/ENROe7PQye https://t.co/5nt5jnaFhJ
Gasoline Is 59 Cents From Record High, Diesel Only 19 Cents Away
U.S. gasoline prices are now just $0.59 per gallon below their all‑time peak, while diesel sits a mere $0.19 away from its record high, according to the latest AAA national average data. The surge reflects tighter global oil markets, lingering...
Japan's Crude Shortage Forces Rare Mexican Purchases
Japan needs Canadian crude oil, but can’t get it. Why? There’s no additional export capacity. That’s why Japan is making rare purchases of crude from Mexico.
Trump's Hormuz Blockade Halts Kuwait's Oil Sales
Thanks to the Trump Administration’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, KUWAIT CANNOT SELL OIL. https://t.co/p41AG1m4AD
Spare Capacity only Matters when Instantly Available, Says Energy Expert
Spare capacity is meaningless if it's not available on demand--and it never has been @m_schouten Remember the Ukraine War? Biden got major heat for using SPR. He did it because OPEC couldn't deliver. I'm getting weary of dealing with the bullshit...
Hormuz Closure Drives Further Oil Price Spikes
My take on oil price spikes with @MarioNawfal : "On March 29th, I predicted that we would have a spike in the price of oil at the end of April, and we did. If Hormuz stays shut for much longer, more...
Chinese Solar Exports Jump 125% Driven by Policy Rush
Chinese solar exports surge 125% on policy change rush, not underlying demand acceleration #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/PP9hio1bem
Ignore Spare Capacity; Market Already Lost a Billion Barrels
Why obsess over “spare capacity” when the market has already lost ~1 billion barrels since the Iran war @m_schouten ? You’re treating a hangnail while the system is bleeding out. https://t.co/Ch2wZqDzda