Today's Commodities Pulse
Lower‑48 gas producers expand output despite storage surplus
U.S. lower‑48 natural‑gas operators are adding production capacity even though storage inventories remain in surplus, according to NGI. At the same time, spot prices are climbing as summer temperatures rise and LNG demand increases.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Gold, Silver Rates Today Nosedive up to 5% as Crude Oil Price Soars After Escalation in the US-Iran War
Gold and silver prices plunged on May 4, 2026 as crude oil rallied over 5% following a reported missile exchange between Iran and a U.S. warship. COMEX gold slipped to about $4,535 an ounce, a 2.3% intraday loss, while silver dropped roughly 5% to $72.60 an ounce. In India, the MCX gold price fell below ₹150,000 (≈$1,800) per 10 gm and silver slipped under ₹2,45,000 (≈$3,000) per kg. Analysts link the sell‑off to a stronger petrodollar and hawkish Fed expectations amid heightened geopolitical risk.
Crude Oil Jumps over 5% as US-Iran Tensions Flare Again; Brent Crude Climbs Past $114
Oil prices surged more than 5% on May 4 after a tanker was reportedly struck in the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting U.S.-Iran tensions. President Trump pledged to guide commercial ships through the strategic waterway, while Iran warned of military action against...
Crude Spikes Rare; only 1973 Embargo Sustained Rise
Surges in Crude Typically Their Own Worst Enemy The only period in our database since 1861 that crude oil went up sharply and stayed up was during the first Arab oil embargo in 1973-74, when WTI jumped to about $10 a...
Fuel Prices Rise May 5: Petrol +R3.27, Diesel +R
SABC News has just reported; “that fuel prices will increase this Wednesday, the of 5th May. The Petrol price will go up by R3.27 per litre and diesel by R6.19 per litre.
Oil Jumps by 5% After Report of US Warship Being Hit by Missiles
Oil prices surged about 5% on Monday after Iran’s Fars news agency reported that a U.S. warship was hit by missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures climbed to $113.69 a barrel and WTI to $107.04, reversing Friday’s losses....
US Escort Plan Aims to Cap Oil Price Spikes
The real intent of the U.S. escort plan is to limit the upside tail risk on oil prices, says @anasalhajji Signaling that some ships will move reduces the worst-cases scenario probability Not reopening Hormuz. Not restoring flows. Just trying to keep prices from...
OPEC+ Decides to Boost Output
OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed on May 3 to raise output by roughly 188,000 barrels per day in June, the first joint move after the United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from the group....
Trump’s Project Freedom to Escort Ships Through Strait of Hormuz Triggers Oil Market Volatility
Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces will begin "Project Freedom" on Monday, guiding stranded merchant ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. The move, aimed at unblocking a key oil and gas corridor, has already rattled commodity markets and drawn...
Commodity Radar: As Gold Holds Near Rs 1.5 Lakh Support, NFP Data to Decide Next Breakout. Buy-on-Dips Strategy Emerges
Gold in India is consolidating near the ₹150,000 (≈ $1,800) support level after a modest correction, while COMEX gold slipped $25.70 to $4,603.90 per ounce. Analysts cite inflation concerns and stalled Iran‑US talks as headwinds, but the real catalyst this week...
Silver Futures Plunge Rs 3,917 to Rs 2.47 Lakh/Kg on Weak Global Trends
Silver futures on India’s MCX fell 1.56% on Monday, dropping Rs 3,917 to Rs 2.47 lakh per kilogram (≈ $3,000/kg). The decline came amid higher crude‑oil prices and inflation worries that dampened investor sentiment, even as global Comex contracts slipped 2.06% to $74.85 per...
Consultancy Unpacks Why Gold Prices Are Trending Lower Despite High Demand
Gold prices have slipped toward $4,626 even as global demand hits record levels, a divergence that analyst Rania Gule attributes to rising U.S. real yields and a tight monetary stance. Higher rates boost the dollar and increase the cost of...
Launch of High-Grade Iron Ore VIU Indices for Silica, Alumina Content, Cfr Qingdao: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets has launched two new high‑grade iron ore Value‑In‑Use (VIU) indices for silica and alumina content, priced cfr Qingdao. The indices, MB‑IRO‑0194 (silica) and MB‑IRO‑0195 (alumina), apply to cargoes with ≥65% Fe and silica 0.5‑8.5% or alumina 0.01‑1.5%, using regression...
A Closed Strait of Hormuz Was Once Unthinkable
Energy planners have historically dismissed a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz as implausible, a view reflected in 2007 and 2022 scenario exercises that omitted the extreme event. Recent disruptions, however, have forced executives like TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné...
Asian Buyers Offer Big Premium for Diesel-Rich Crude From UAE
Asian refiners are offering roughly $20 a barrel above ADNOC’s official selling price to secure Upper Zakum crude, a diesel‑rich grade from the UAE. The premium reflects heightened demand for medium‑sour crudes after the Iran‑related conflict disrupted traditional supply routes....
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 4 May 2026
Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) published its May 4 2026 gold buying rates for Zimbabwean producers. The fire‑assay cash price tops the table at $138.70 per gram ($4,314 per ounce) for shipments over 100 g, while sample grades (5–10 g) receive $131.40 per gram. Tiered...
Gulf LNG Export Woes Push Gas Prices up but Diversification Becomes Europe’s Energy Lifeline
The Middle East conflict halted roughly 80 mtpa of Gulf LNG exports, creating a supply shock that could have driven European gas prices sky‑high. Instead, Europe’s diversified fuel mix—new 40 mtpa of LNG capacity, over‑60% renewable penetration in Spain, and expanding battery...
Oil Prices Edge Down While Stock Futures Inch Up
Oil prices slipped modestly on Sunday as investors weighed ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic uncertainty. President Trump said he was reviewing Iran’s peace proposal but expressed doubt it would be acceptable. He also hinted the United States would use “best efforts” to...
India Is Burning More Coal as Extreme Heat and the Iran War Squeeze Energy Supplies
India’s coal‑fired power output rose to an average 164.9 GW in April, a 3.5% increase over last year, as extreme heat and the Iran‑related LNG supply squeeze pushed gas plants out of the merit pool. Higher LNG prices and disrupted petcoke...
The Weekly Finger: Resource Wars and the Tungsten Trap
The upcoming RIU Sydney Resources Round‑up will zero in on two emerging bottlenecks—fuel security and a tightening global sulphur supply—while the Tungsten ’26 webinar highlights China’s 80% grip on tungsten and NATO’s surge in defence stockpiling. James warns that the...
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Continues to Impact Energy Prices
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, is keeping oil prices volatile near US $100 per barrel. Coal prices have followed, trading in a US $100‑110 band, while 6.5 % sulfur petcoke has risen to US $106 per...
Commodity Market Movers Report - Portfolio Update 03.05.2026
The fund added a long position in sugar, citing Brazil’s shift of cane to ethanol and a strong El Niño forecast that could curb Indian sugar output. Simultaneously, it exited its long gold exposure to tighten risk controls. The moves reflect...
Malaysia’s Fuel Supply Secure but Finances Continue to Be Strained to Keep Budi95 at RM1.99 a Litre – Anwar
Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said the nation’s fuel supply remains secure, allowing the government to keep RON95 petrol priced at RM1.99 per litre (about $0.44). Rising global oil prices, driven by West Asian conflict‑related shipping and insurance...
Asean Shares Crude Oil Supply Concerns with Japan, China, South Korea
Finance ministers and central bank governors from ASEAN, Japan, China and South Korea warned that the Middle‑East conflict is amplifying downside risks to regional oil supplies, especially after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. The group, meeting on the...
Brent Holds Above $108 as US Clears StraitBrent Holds Above $108 as US Clears Strait
"Brent was little changed above $108 a barrel, after falling as much as 2.4% at the open, while West Texas Intermediate was near $102. Starting from Monday, the US move was meant to enable vessels that have been stranded by...
Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Trade Shifts and Fertilizer Push
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 65 days. At around 90 days, the shock turns global. Structural adjustments are on the way: trade routes are shifting, stockpiling is rising, and nations are boosting efforts to produce fertilizer domestically....
Oil Prices Subdued After Trump Says US Plans to Help Stranded Ships Cross Strait of Hormuz
U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled "Project Freedom," a plan to escort stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global oil flow. Brent futures hovered near $108 per barrel and WTI around $101.65 as...
LNG Exports Hit Two‑year Low as Hormuz Shuts
Global LNG exports continue to contract due to the Hormuz closure 🚢 ⚠️ Shipments declined to about 33 million tons, the lowest level since May 2024, according to ship-tracking data (Still, the lost volumes were partially replaced with new output from...
Peru’s Mining Exports Surge 59% to $13.8 Bn in Jan‑Feb 2026, Led by Gold and Copper
The National Society of Mining, Oil and Energy (SNMPE) reported that Peru’s mining exports climbed 59% to $13.831 bn in January‑February 2026, with gold and copper accounting for the bulk of the increase. The surge lifts mining to 74% of the...
Iran Weaponizes Hormuz to Disrupt Oil, Raise Prices
Tanker in Strait of Hormuz hit by "unknown projectiles" Doesn't matter if it happened or not This is IRGC's MO & strategy You don’t shut Hormuz. You make it uninsurable. Flows slow. Prices rise. Control achieved. #OilMarkets #Hormuz #IranWar #EnergyIsTheEconomy #Macro
FTSE 100 Dips 0.1% to 10,363 as Energy Slump and AstraZeneca Setback Weigh
The FTSE 100 closed 0.1% lower at 10,363.93 points, dragged down by weak crude prices that hurt Shell and BP and a 3.1% slide in AstraZeneca after an FDA advisory panel rejected a key breast‑cancer drug. The decline highlights sector‑specific...
OPEC+ Lifts Output by 188,000 Bpd as Kuwait Halts Exports Amid Hormuz Blockade
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise June oil output by about 188,000 barrels per day, a symbolic move while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. At the same time, Kuwait Petroleum Corp declared force majeure, stopping roughly 2 million barrels...
OPEC+ Meets Without UAE, Plans 188,000 Bpd Quota Rise for June
Seven OPEC+ nations gathered online for their first meeting since the United Arab Emirates withdrew, agreeing to raise production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day for June. The decision tests the cartel’s unity amid war‑driven supply shocks and a major...
Daily Market Wire 4 May 2026
Wheat markets remained flat as rain in Colorado and western Kansas failed to relieve dryness concerns; Chicago July and Kansas City July contracts each edged up 1 cent while Minneapolis slipped 1.75 cents. Corn rallied, with the December contract gaining...
Price Tracker: Oil, Fuel Monitor for May 4
The Philippine Energy Department’s May 4 price tracker shows Manila’s fuel market shifting from late‑April rollbacks to renewed price hikes. Early‑May estimates forecast diesel up ₱1‑₱3 per litre (about $0.02‑$0.05) and gasoline up ₱1‑₱2 per litre (about $0.02‑$0.04) as the peso...
Iron Ore Soars on the Wars
Iron ore futures are racing toward their highest level in two years, propelled primarily by geopolitical tensions rather than fundamentals. Despite a 6% drop in the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) index and construction PMI forecasts that remain below...
Speculators Flood Commodities as Corn Stalls at $5 per Bushel
Large speculative funds are building record‑size grain positions while December corn barely nudged above $5 per bushel, a two‑year high. Analyst Ted Seifried says the influx reflects broader concerns over fertilizer shortages and geopolitics, but near‑term fundamentals remain mixed.
The Threat to Summer Holidays Looming From Jet Fuel Shortages
Jet fuel prices have more than doubled since February, climbing to over $1,500 per tonne after the Strait of Hormuz blockage disrupted Gulf exports. European airlines, especially in the UK where 65% of fuel is imported and only four refineries...
Quantifying the Impact of the Iran War on US Inflation
The authors combine a calibrated DSGE model of the global oil market with a monthly structural VAR to estimate how the 2026 Iran war’s oil‑supply shock could affect U.S. inflation. A 15 % shortfall lasting one quarter pushes WTI crude to...
TIPS‑Bond Spread Signals Inflation, Boosting Oil Prices
TIPS relative to bonds are suggesting a higher inflationary world, which it turns out means higher oil. https://t.co/7lvC0M2pIk
Rising Diesel Costs Cripple Owner‑Operators and SME Supply Chains
This diesel price hits trucking across market sectors. Owner operators and SME supply chains will take the biggest hit. And it is not over.
THE 1973 OIL EMBARGO PARALLEL & THE $20,000 GOLD BET: Why the End of the Strait of Hormuz Blockade Could...
The piece likens today’s Strait of Hormuz blockade to the 1973 oil embargo, noting that the 1973 equity crash unfolded months after the embargo lifted, while gold prices doubled. It argues that the eventual resolution of the blockade, combined with...
Dangote Refinery Starts Direct Jet Fuel Deliveries to Ethiopian Airlines, Boosting African Supply
Nigeria's Dangote Petroleum Refinery has begun direct jet‑fuel deliveries to Ethiopian Airlines, marking its first airline‑specific export. The move comes as the refinery runs at full capacity, leveraging surplus output to meet rising demand across Africa and Europe.
Brent Oil Holds Near Support, Bullish EMA Trend Persists
#BrentOil Comp small Down Candle, arguably a doji and Sideways. Resistance $114.7, $124.5, $133.1. Support $100, $86.1. RSI 62 not high. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Up Candle on Weekly. Small Up Candle on monthly but well off the Low.
West Asia Conflict Threatens India’s 4.3% Fiscal Deficit Goal as Oil and Fertiliser Prices Surge
India’s Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran warned that soaring oil and fertiliser prices from the West Asia crisis could widen the current‑account deficit to over 2% of GDP, jeopardising the government’s 4.3% fiscal‑deficit target for FY27. The warning comes...
ICE Cotton Futures Rise 3.8% on Weak Dollar and Surge in U.S. Export Orders
ICE cotton futures surged 3.00 cents per pound (3.79%) on Tuesday, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and a 36% rise in net upland cotton export sales. The July 2026 contract closed at 82.20 cents per pound, the highest level...
Record Net Long in U.S. Grains, Corn Share Diverges
📈Funds ended April with a record net long for the date across U.S. grains & oilseeds, edging past 2021 and 2022. However, corn’s share looks different this time. I cover this, plus updated U.S. soybean crush pace and more, in my...
Chevron CEO Predicts Persistent High Oil Prices Post‑Hormuz Reopening
Ouch. Chevron boss says high oil prices are not going away when the Strait of Hormuz opens up.
From Research to Action: Critical Minerals in the Mid-Transition
The AFD Group, under the French G7 presidency, is convening a high‑level virtual conference on May 6, 2026 to address the growing uncertainties surrounding critical minerals that power the energy transition. Participants will include government officials, financiers, industry leaders, and researchers from...
The Hormuz Cascade, Tier Two
The Hormuz Cascade, Tier Two, maps how the Hormuz Strait bottleneck will ripple through a dozen supply chains beyond the already‑priced crude, fertilizer, helium, aluminum and auto sectors. The author argues that each downstream industry experiences cost inflation on its...
Emerging Markets Will Bear Shortages; West Pays Higher Prices
I am tired of hearing alarmism in the West about food and energy shortages. The reality, while sad, is that emerging market countries will bear the vast majority of these shortages. The West will simply pay higher prices to redirect supply away...