Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees to modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision as the conflict in the Middle East constrains output and shipments. Delegates said the move signals alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Also developing:
Futures were mixed on Tuesday, with grain contracts climbing while soybeans slipped, reflecting a modest correction from the previous session’s volatility. Market activity remained thin due to a lack of fresh news, especially regarding the ongoing US‑Iran conflict. The White House indicated that diplomatic talks are progressing, yet no concrete breakthroughs have emerged, leaving uncertainty about troop deployments. Energy analysts forecast crude oil could breach $125 per barrel and even reach $150, prompting managed‑money investors to re‑enter the energy space and buoy commodity prices.
I've been describing the Hormuz crisis as a detonation in spacetime. It hit spot crude markets in the Middle East and refined products markets in Asia first. Then the shockwave travels further through time down the delivery curve, and out geographically toward...
Since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began in late February, the U.S. Dollar Index has risen sharply, pulling down precious‑metal prices. The dollar’s strength is tied to a parallel surge in crude oil, which jumped from the $60s to around...
China’s crude oil inventories have surged since early 2024, climbing roughly 15% year‑over‑year and reaching levels not seen in a decade. Despite oil prices soaring well above the breakeven cost of the stockpiled barrels, Beijing has drawn little to none...
Turkish refiner Tupras awarded part of its domestic sulphur e‑tender for April loading, pricing the commodity at $662‑672 per tonne FCA—an increase of $155‑$183 per tonne from the February round. The awards include 8,850 t from the Izmit refinery at $662‑664/t...
Helpful timeline info from @Amena__Bakr on restart timelines for shut-in production. At lest count Kuwait had already shut in 1.6 MMbpd of production (likely higher by now), roughly 30 million barrels unproduced by end-March. Let's be generous and use 3 months from...
The European Commission announced it will postpone the planned EU-wide ban on Russian oil imports that was slated for 15 April, pushing the decision to after the Easter break without setting a new deadline. The delay is attributed to heightened energy...
Goldman Sachs predicts the U.S.–Iran war will keep the global LNG market disrupted through 2027, tightening supply after Iran’s attacks knocked out 17% of Qatar’s export capacity. Higher margins—averaging 200% above historical levels for 2026‑2028—create a favorable backdrop for producers....
France’s energy regulator, the Commission de Régulation de l’Énergie (CRE), is proposing to tie subsidies for large‑scale photovoltaic projects to the inclusion of energy‑storage systems. The rule change targets installations above 100 kW and aims to curb revenue erosion caused by...
JUST IN: 🇶🇦 QatarEnergy declares force majeure on LNG contracts with China, Italy, South Korea, and Belgium.
The episode reports that the Philippines has declared a national energy emergency as diesel and petrol prices more than double amid the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, prompting an executive order that lets the government control fuel distribution, purchase supplies, and subsidise costs....
USA Rare Earth secured $1.6 bn in U.S. government funding and $1.5 bn from private investors, while MP Materials received a 15% government stake and a $110/kg price floor from the Department of Defense. The twin capital moves have lifted both stocks...
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has created a sharp "war premium" that is boosting fossil‑fuel equities. Jeremy Hosking’s hedge fund, which manages roughly $3 billion, saw its oil, gas and coal holdings rise by more than $25 million since the war began. Hosking has...
The International Cotton Advisory Committee warned that cotton farming faces mounting threats from soaring input costs, climate‑driven disruptions, and insufficient policy support. Dr. Keshav Kranthi presented data showing farmer margins shrinking as pest pressures and extreme weather intensify. Meanwhile, apparel...
Crude oil futures experienced a dramatic swing from $84.37 to $101.67 after President Trump’s Truth Social remarks, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical headlines. The contract now sits near $92.68, just below the 50% midpoint of $93.02, keeping sellers in...
Trump’s war in Iran is putting extreme pressure on global oil supplies, driving up crude prices that now may stay higher for longer. My @morningjoe Chart
$8T+ Oil & Gas market. Goldman sees $115 crude. When prices rise, cash flow explodes across the energy stack. Here’s who wins 👇 Oil demand >104M bpd. Gas >4.2T m³. Supply stays tight while LNG demand grows. Goldman’s near-term price targets show...
Global iron ore shipments rose 5% year‑over‑year in the first 12 weeks of 2026, driven by stronger Chinese import demand. Yet Chinese steel production slipped 4% in the same period, pushing inventories to a record 179.5 million tonnes by March 12....
Rising gas prices caused by the war are already hurting Americans’ bottom line — in both expensive and affordable states. On average, Americans are paying almost $1 more per gallon than they were last month. My @morningjoe e Chart
U.S. aluminum scrap markets are feeling the ripple effects of a supply disruption in the Middle East, where cheap energy fuels large‑scale smelting. The interruption of primary aluminum shipments has driven U.S. manufacturers to lean heavily on recycled content, spiking...
People think high oil prices will be good for oil companies. Exxon expected to lose $5billion/yr based on Middle East damage so far. Shell's Pearl GTL will be shut for a year. Exxon gets 20% of its oil & gas...
Benchmark Brent crude rose over 2% to $98.25 a barrel and WTI jumped 3.4% to $91.09 after President Donald Trump delayed planned strikes on Iran. The rally revives concerns that higher energy costs could lift U.S. inflation and pressure the...
President Donald Trump posted a 48‑hour ultimatum on Truth Social demanding the Strait of Hormuz be reopened, prompting oil prices above $100 a barrel to tumble 10% and defense stocks to rally. The move has intensified market volatility as investors...
I talked to @kairyssdal on @Marketplace yesterday about the latest developments in oil and what to make of the latest switcheroo in the conflict with Iran. I don't think this conflict is over by a long shot, so I doubt...
Central Asian states are mobilising substantial resources to become a new fertilizer hub, with Kazakhstan targeting 6 million tonnes of potash by 2028, Uzbekistan scaling green ammonia, and Turkmenistan expanding phosphate output. The region’s existing gas‑chemical complexes, such as KazAzot and...
A Tactical Traders Delight May Be Just Getting Started - 2026 - Gold, silver, copper, the S&P 500, Bitcoin and US natural gas have turned 1Q gains into declines. How sustainable are the pumps-then-dumps? Crude oil may be next. That...
The episode examines an unprecedented shift in global poultry pricing, where frozen boneless chicken legs are now trading at a premium to breast meat, driven by bird‑flu disruptions, Brazil’s labor shortages, and China’s emergence as a net exporter. Graham Stile,...
Gasoline, Diesel Price Surges May Mirror 2008, 2022 - US average gasoline and diesel prices have approached the $4 and $5 a gallon thresholds, raising the prospect of greater consumer and economic stress -- and peaks akin to 2008 and...
The trouble with looking at the current Hormuz crisis through the lens of which countries have historically imported the volumes is that all of these countries will now be rabidly bidding for all the other barrels. A barrel of oil lost...
Dr. Anas Alhajji argues that the U.S. is a major winner from the Hormuz crisis, aligning with the November 2025 National Security Strategy that ties AI dominance to cheap, abundant energy. By disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas...
Even after assuming the release of global oil stockpiles (which can not be sustained), the world is still short over 6 million barrels of oil per day, @Rory_Johnston finds https://t.co/pZBkSir3aa
$BTU Daily. $39 looks like the level to hold above for Peabody, as coal plays are strong across the board today with sound technical charts to boot. https://t.co/n2Llt8kZcs
Japan will begin releasing oil from its strategic reserves on Thursday to blunt rising fuel prices triggered by the U.S.–Israel‑Iran conflict, while the cabinet also approved mandatory ID checks for data‑only SIM cards to curb fraud. At the same time,...
"$5 Diesel is Crushing Truckers. It Will Soon Be Felt Across the Economy." https://t.co/u6Z4qcVLci https://t.co/m3UrTU1L2r
Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch. https://t.co/ixdOHnatCg
Factoring in Iran’s “transit” fee. And what it does to the price of oil, LNG, and anything else moving thru the Strait.
There's a scramble to look for more fertilizer production & stockpiles. When it comes to Nitrogen fertilizer, "it simply does not exist." - @JLinvilleFert Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc YouTube📽️ https://t.co/qx5Od1DJd1 https://t.co/cSMed2AreF
🇧🇷Through the third week of March, Brazil's average daily soybean export rate was 18% lower than the average daily rate during the full March last year. Brazil shipped 14.7 mmt of soybeans in March 2025, a record for the month. Feb...
Short video update on $WTI #Oil Market Chaos Deepens as Volatility Signals Possible Trend Reversal https://t.co/GWWJ9vTTrK https://t.co/RpKMSg65g7
WTI price and oil volatility From inverse correlation to systemic risk regime April 2025 - April 2026 #WTI #OilVolatility #OilMarkets #CrudeOil #Tariffs #Trump #Iran #Geopolitics #Macro #EnergyMarkets https://t.co/LIBfuivKbw
Gold: time to step in. Gundlach shares the same view. Two ideas I like here: https://t.co/YjKShRTMiy https://t.co/IXZHUSswpm
Check out this edition of the Art of Supply newsletter for a deep dive into the supply and cost dynamics of the coffee supply chain. ☕ https://t.co/JyZWYKIpxp
Sulphur prices now up 40% since before the Iran War Unlike oil, the sulphur market was already in severe deficit https://t.co/gMiE3tcho5
Asking for a friend ... how high did gas prices climb under Joe Biden? https://t.co/sCX5DwSKWz
Silver prices find new floor around $70 an ounce #energysky -- via pv magazine usa: https://t.co/uxezjzwLQq
gold bullion just pulled back to the 200-day moving average, which is the first pullback to the 200-day in 2.5 years... https://t.co/dwiNknUEwy
Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed and will the global oil industry drain down ~15 million barrels of petroleum stocks outside the Middle East today alone because of it? https://t.co/YQqTHgKaN9
Why the war in the Middle East will have long term impacts on energy prices and our energy security. I talked to TRT World last night. https://t.co/Tia1QYZDBJ
The oil price is a combination of two things: (i) a physical shortage of oil in the here and now; and (ii) expectations for how long this conflict lasts. The latter channel is by far the more important one in...
"Petrochemical Shutdowns Spark Industry Shock, Asian Markets Plunge: Naphtha shortages force South Korea, Japan plant halts as Asian stocks crash amid supply fears" https://t.co/SZ6pwkCiSi https://t.co/se32khyggJ
