Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. The adjustment, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is intended to signal alliance cohesion despite output constraints from the ongoing conflict.
Also developing:
Silver exchange‑traded funds slumped as much as 18.5% after the metal’s price fell 7% in January, wiping out recent gains and leaving investors with deep paper losses. The drop mirrors a broader sell‑off in precious metals driven by higher oil prices, rising U.S. Treasury yields and a shift away from safe‑haven assets.
United Airlines announced a potential 20% increase in ticket prices if jet‑fuel prices stay high and introduced a new premium “Relax Row” seat class. CEO Scott Kirby said the airline is already cutting capacity on unprofitable routes and preparing for...
The dollar index jumped 0.2% to 99.42 on Thursday, while the euro slipped to $1.1584 and the pound fell to $1.3383 as investors retreated from fleeting optimism over a U.S.–Iran de‑escalation. The move follows a failed peace‑talks narrative, a U.S....
The Australian Energy Market Operator’s 2026 Gas Statement of Opportunities shows that expanding grid‑scale battery storage and accelerated electrification have pushed the nation’s first major gas shortfall from 2026 to 2030. AEMO still flags a peak‑day risk in the southern...
$5 Corn May Mark a 2026 Peak Alongside $120 Crude - The December corn future (Dec26) stretch to $4.99 a bushel around the onset of the Iran war on March 9 may have peak inklings akin to Dec22's $7.66 apex...
The U.S. import price index jumped 1.3% month‑over‑month in February, the strongest gain since March 2022, driven by a 3.8% rise in fuel imports and a 1.1% increase in non‑fuel goods. Capital goods such as computers and industrial machinery posted...
Oil crashes 10% on diplomacy hopes. Snaps back 4% when Iran denies those talks. WTI: $88 to $91.62 in 24 hours. Same war. Same region. Different headline. The volatility is the signal — not the direction. A 14-point crude range in 48...
Gold bounces upwards after taking the liquidity beneath the wick. Classic price action. I think that we'll slowly see the volatility wind down in Gold as it has established a range. Upper side of the range is $5,000-5,100. The lower end of...
In this episode, Ed Elson and Flexport CEO Ryan Peterson discuss the cascading effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure and Red Sea disruptions on global supply chains, highlighting soaring oil, diesel, and fertilizer prices and a 50% rise in...
The article examines how the escalating Iran crisis could reshape Russia’s gas exports to Europe, a market where Russia still accounts for roughly 40% of supply. It argues that the EU’s recent pivot toward liquefied natural gas (LNG) has swapped...
Overnight markets flipped, with grain futures slipping while soybean contracts rose. The shift comes amid a quiet news week ahead of next week’s USDA quarterly stocks and prospective plantings reports. Analysts are trimming corn acreage expectations and expanding soybean plantings,...
Asia, which purchases more than 80% of the crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz, is confronting a severe fuel shortage after Iran blocked the waterway following its war on February 28. Governments from South Korea to the Philippines are reviving...
U.S. RETAIL DIESEL prices including taxes climbed to an average of $5.38 per gallon on March 23 up from $5.07 a week earlier and $3.81 before the war started. Inflation-adjusted prices have averaged $4.80 so far this month (75th percentile...
Iran’s abrupt closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices soaring, prompting non‑Middle‑East exporters to step into the breach. Canada’s energy minister hailed the country’s surge as a strategic moment, positioning it as a reliable guarantor for allied...
Costco is capitalizing on its $0.20‑$0.30‑per‑gallon gas discount to attract new members and lift overall sales, reporting a 4.8% rise in paid memberships and a 6.7% jump in comparable sales for Q2 FY2026. The strategy turns volatile fuel costs into...
China's state‑backed surge in copper smelting and fabrication now accounts for roughly 80% of new global capacity, tightening markets as the United States lags in domestic investment. The imbalance has prompted 50% Section 232 tariffs and renewed calls for export...
Ember’s latest study shows that swapping ASEAN’s planned gas‑fired capacity for solar would save the region up to $67 billion and reduce electricity generation costs by roughly 50%. The finding arrives as LNG prices surge after disruptions in the Strait of...
Iran's war has shut down more than 20 million barrels of oil per day and driven Brent crude toward $120 a barrel. Tehran has begun charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while soaring prices are pushing Asian importers toward...
Valero's Port Arthur refinery in Texas suffered a massive explosion that ignited a fire and sent a thick smoke plume across the Gulf Coast. Emergency crews responded as the blast raised immediate safety and supply concerns for the U.S. fuel...
The Sensex climbed 1.89% and the Nifty rose 1.78% after crude oil prices fell 5% on reports of a possible US‑Iran ceasefire. The rally was reinforced by Reliance Industries' first Iranian crude purchase since 2019, signaling renewed confidence in energy...
California’s average pump price hit $5.88 per gallon, the highest in the nation, driven by a mix of state policies and global market shocks. Long‑standing factors such as high excise taxes, cap‑and‑trade fees, and limited refinery capacity have kept prices...
While most eyes are focused on hydrocarbons in the Middle East, keep an eye on #Lithium in China as well... Some data providers flagged a weekly reduction in inventories, and prices have bounced over the past few days. We seem...
Asian airlines are increasingly hoarding jet fuel as the Iran‑Russia war drives crude prices above $120 per barrel. South Korea’s transport ministry is debating redirecting export‑bound jet fuel to the domestic market, while Philippine Airlines warns of imminent fuel rationing....
IGD warns that prolonged Middle East instability could trigger an energy shock that pushes UK food inflation above 8% by June 2026. In its worst‑case scenario, the surge would add roughly $190 to the average household grocery bill, while even...
Blue Moon Metals completed its acquisition of the Apex mine, a former U.S. producer of gallium, germanium and copper, to re‑establish domestic supply of these critical metals. The deal includes a 0.5% net smelter return royalty for Teck and positions...
Kenya’s flower industry is losing up to $1.4 million each week since the Iran war began. The Kenya Flower Council reports over $4.2 million in losses across three weeks, with export volumes dropping by more than half. Freight costs have surged to...
SLN stabilised with fresh funding, but New Caledonia nickel supply still faces deep structural risks. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/new-caledonia-nickel-supply-gains-time.html
India's air‑conditioner makers are confronting a sharp LPG shortage that is disrupting the brazing process essential for unit assembly. To keep lines running, firms have shifted to oxy‑acetylene, a fuel tied to Middle‑East limestone imports, raising exposure to geopolitical volatility....
A proof‑of‑concept platform now tracks bulk fertilizer shipments bound for Australian ports before they berth, using publicly available shipping data combined with commercial signals. Early trials have successfully identified vessel names, tonnages, arrival dates and end‑customers at ports such as...
US copper smelters face rising strategic pressure as weak refining economics reshape the copper supply chain. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/us-copper-smelters-face-strategic.html
Israel launched a missile strike on Tehran while President Trump announced that the United States is negotiating a cease‑fire with Iran. The news sent crude oil prices plunging more than 6%, before partially recovering on doubts about the report’s veracity....
Indian steel producers are preparing for another price increase as U.S. attacks on Iran lift coking coal, ferro‑alloy and shipping costs. Domestic hot‑rolled coil prices have risen 23 percent to roughly $650‑$700 per tonne, up from about $566 a month earlier....
Oil prices plunged about 5% on Wednesday as optimism grew that a US‑Iran cease‑fire could be negotiated, pushing Brent crude below $100 per barrel and WTI to $88.31. The decline follows a recent peak near $119, but ongoing strikes and...
Food inflation in February 2026 shows a fragmented pattern, with red meat prices driving overall increases while fresh produce prices decline. Beef rose 7.9% year‑over‑year and lamb/goat 6.8%, whereas vegetables, fruit and eggs fell 1‑2% annually. Monthly data reveal a...
Trump Iran talks revived Strait of Hormuz oil flow fears and pushed global energy prices higher. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/trump-iran-talks-put-strait-of-hormuz.html
Gold $4,550+. Missiles flying. Bonds selling off. The safe haven playbook just got rewritten. $GLD $GC_F $TLT https://t.co/mnn27BiQUs
In this episode of the Argus Crude Report, Lina Bullock and Mediterranean reporter Eleni Krak discuss how the Middle‑East Gulf War is reshaping crude supplies for European refiners. They explain that Europe faces a loss of roughly 600,000 barrels per...
Lots of headline whipsaw but call me crazy but I do find market price action useful. Oman oil back down to the 90’s from the 170 highs says this is a wrap https://t.co/0WwZo0Hanz
Some awkward facts: Oil is sold via a global price mechanism (there are some variations due to transportation costs). Gas is sold on a regional basis. If it was global, then why is US gas a fraction of UK gas?
Why has gold tumbled? Two reasons: (i) the big rally pre-war sucked in lots of retail investors who're more skittish than the previous buyer base; (ii) volatility meant hedge funds had margin calls, so sold profitable positions like gold to...
Diesel was $7.25 in real dollars back in July 2008, $6.51 in June 2022 @jkempenergy .. $5.38 in real-time. I'd like to see @JeffWeniger work his magic on this chart https://t.co/u3Tn1K8vRc
Oil -10% Monday. Oil +4% Tuesday. Same war. Same geopolitics. The volatility IS the signal. $USO $XLE $SPY https://t.co/Od9t9fzbbl
May soon becomes the RBOB prompt.. it's $2.89... implying a $3.80-$3.85 national average (down from today's $3.99 level) https://t.co/0eD1CGzOZ5
Europe faced with near-empty gas stores just as war hits supply https://t.co/AMi8Pr6NeH via @priazrocha https://t.co/iNtIl6DXzV
Dutch gas inventories fall to **6.1%** full 🇳🇱 ⚠️ This is a seasonal low, and comes as the global LNG market is facing a shortfall due to the conflict in the Middle East https://t.co/OeUgHLyuUf
Thailand is hiking power prices due to the conflict in the Middle East 🇹🇭 ⚠️ Power rates may be increased by as much as 18% for the May-Aug. billing period due to higher fuel costs Other gas importers are...
My take on @AJEnglish on how the US-Israeli war has backfired and is benefiting Iran: “Iran is getting more oil out, they’re selling it at higher prices, and at lower discounts than prior to the US-Israeli attacks.” https://t.co/ySeIcR0lFS
This is why there is so much focus on gas demand destruction 👇 Importers (particularly those in emerging Asia) will need to take less LNG to free-up more for Europe and other richer nations the longer Hormuz/Qatar is shut
OPEC+ crude supply in March will be the lowest since the major production cuts during COVID lockdown in 2020.
Yes. This has been my model for a decade. Oil is approaching peak demand. Perhaps 2030. Natural gas demand will continue to grow well beyond oil.
