Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees to modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision as the conflict in the Middle East constrains output and shipments. Delegates said the move signals alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Also developing:
India's air‑conditioner makers are confronting a sharp LPG shortage that is disrupting the brazing process essential for unit assembly. To keep lines running, firms have shifted to oxy‑acetylene, a fuel tied to Middle‑East limestone imports, raising exposure to geopolitical volatility. Brands have responded with price hikes of 5‑10% and anticipate modest Q4FY26 revenue growth despite tighter margins. The combined pressure of higher input costs, a depreciating rupee and new star‑rating regulations is reshaping the sector's cost structure.
A proof‑of‑concept platform now tracks bulk fertilizer shipments bound for Australian ports before they berth, using publicly available shipping data combined with commercial signals. Early trials have successfully identified vessel names, tonnages, arrival dates and end‑customers at ports such as...
US copper smelters face rising strategic pressure as weak refining economics reshape the copper supply chain. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/us-copper-smelters-face-strategic.html
Israel launched a missile strike on Tehran while President Trump announced that the United States is negotiating a cease‑fire with Iran. The news sent crude oil prices plunging more than 6%, before partially recovering on doubts about the report’s veracity....
Indian steel producers are preparing for another price increase as U.S. attacks on Iran lift coking coal, ferro‑alloy and shipping costs. Domestic hot‑rolled coil prices have risen 23 percent to roughly $650‑$700 per tonne, up from about $566 a month earlier....
Oil prices plunged about 5% on Wednesday as optimism grew that a US‑Iran cease‑fire could be negotiated, pushing Brent crude below $100 per barrel and WTI to $88.31. The decline follows a recent peak near $119, but ongoing strikes and...
Food inflation in February 2026 shows a fragmented pattern, with red meat prices driving overall increases while fresh produce prices decline. Beef rose 7.9% year‑over‑year and lamb/goat 6.8%, whereas vegetables, fruit and eggs fell 1‑2% annually. Monthly data reveal a...
Trump Iran talks revived Strait of Hormuz oil flow fears and pushed global energy prices higher. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/trump-iran-talks-put-strait-of-hormuz.html
In this episode of the Argus Crude Report, Lina Bullock and Mediterranean reporter Eleni Krak discuss how the Middle‑East Gulf War is reshaping crude supplies for European refiners. They explain that Europe faces a loss of roughly 600,000 barrels per...
Anhydrous ammonia prices in Illinois surged to $998 per ton in mid‑March 2026, an 18.4% rise from February levels before the Iran‑U.S. conflict. A regression model linking ammonia prices to corn and natural‑gas markets forecasts the fertilizer will still trade...
SPR releases are a rounding error against a 10–17 mb/d disruption, says @ericnuttall Paper oil is still pretending everything’s fine. Even if this ends tomorrow, you’re left with a $10+ security premium Damaged infrastructure takes years, not weeks to recover This is a...
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for a U.S. recession in 2026 to a 30% probability, up from 25%, citing a confluence of geopolitical tension, higher oil prices and waning fiscal support. The revised outlook is prompting corporations to tighten budgets...
In March 2026 a rupture in the Transportadora de Gas del Perú pipeline near Megantoni, Cusco, halted the flow of unprocessed natural gas to the Piura processing plant, cutting supply of both GLP and CNG nationwide. The outage triggered immediate...
ConocoPhillips unveiled a $4 billion ordinary dividend for 2026 after oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, driving an 11% month‑to‑date rise in its shares. The payout reflects a $9 billion total return in 2025 and a commitment to return 45% of...
Eurozone private‑sector activity slipped to a ten‑month low in March, with the flash composite output index dropping to 50.5, below expectations. At the same time, input‑cost inflation accelerated to its strongest level in over three years, underscoring weakening domestic demand...
Slovenia became the first EU member to impose fuel purchase limits after the Strait of Hormuz blockage triggered long lines and shortages. Private motorists can buy up to 50 liters a day, while companies are capped at 200 liters, with the army...
At CERAWeek in Houston, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, TotalEnergies chief Patrick Pouyanne and NNPC GCEO Bashir Ojulari warned that the Iran‑Israel war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are creating unprecedented volatility for oil and gas markets. Their...
A blast was reported at a Texas oil refinery, though details remain scarce. The incident comes as crude oil prices slipped on easing US‑Iran tensions, while India's coal consultancy CMPDI struggled to attract investors and turmeric prices fell sharply amid...
Valero Energy's Port Arthur, Texas refinery suffered a massive explosion that ignited a fire and forced an immediate shutdown of the plant. The incident sent a thick smoke plume over the Gulf Coast, prompting emergency response teams and sparking worries...
London’s FTSE 100 rose modestly on Tuesday, buoyed by gains in oil majors BP and Shell as Brent crude breached the $100‑a‑barrel mark. The rally came amid fresh uncertainty over the Israel‑Iran conflict and a five‑day pause on U.S. strikes...
The White House is (truly) winning the oil jawboning battle against Tehran — still to be seen if Trump would win the physical oil market war. But to see Brent trading at sub-$100 a barrel (and WTI below $90) after...
My take on @AJEnglish on how the US-Israeli war has backfired and is benefiting Iran: “Iran is getting more oil out, they’re selling it at higher prices, and at lower discounts than prior to the US-Israeli attacks.” https://t.co/ySeIcR0lFS
The whey protein concentrate (WPC) market is splitting as performance‑nutrition demand fuels stable, premium‑priced WPC80 while broader human‑use WPC stocks tumble about 25% year‑on‑year. USDA data show inventory declines through December 2025 and January 2026, signaling constrained production and tightening...
This is why there is so much focus on gas demand destruction 👇 Importers (particularly those in emerging Asia) will need to take less LNG to free-up more for Europe and other richer nations the longer Hormuz/Qatar is shut
OPEC+ crude supply in March will be the lowest since the major production cuts during COVID lockdown in 2020.
As the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil tankers are increasingly diverting to the Atlantic Basin, boosting vessel traffic there. The rerouting eases regional freight rates, offering lower shipping costs for crude moving to Europe and the Americas. Traders note...
Yes. This has been my model for a decade. Oil is approaching peak demand. Perhaps 2030. Natural gas demand will continue to grow well beyond oil.
Australia is RUNNING OUT OF FUEL. As the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, hundreds of gas stations across the country are running dry. THE GAS STATIONS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/9LMx4BprMq
Local gasoline prices have plunged sharply, with spot rates falling roughly 20% year‑on‑year. The decline is driven by unusually mild weather that has suppressed driving demand and hints of an emerging recession that is curbing consumer spending. Analysts note that...
Gas prices in China jumped 20% since the war in Iran began. This is big. It affects 300 million drivers. CHAIRMAN XI SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/5AEwfc2iWb
🇨🇦The ongoing Hormuz crisis presents a historic opportunity for Canada’s oil and LNG industries. 🇨🇦This is the moment. If we miss it, there may not be another. 👇👇👇 Daily Energy Report Link: https://t.co/9c26JYBjru
Oil prices jumped higher on Tuesday before slipping in after‑hours trading, reflecting the market’s reaction to fresh reports of potential US‑Iran talks aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. The price swing underscores how quickly crude markets respond to geopolitical...
What Trump and the IEA Missed About the Oil Market: Relief Does Not Work When Markets Are in Panic Mode Daily Energy Report https://t.co/9c26JYBjru
Kazakhstan's oil exports recovered: What are the implications for OPEC+ and the oil market? (SEE CHART) DAILY ENERGY REPORT https://t.co/3Iw9dtfnRU
China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is projected to avoid a supply shortage through March despite the ongoing Middle East conflict, according to Shandong‑based consultancy SCI99. The firm cites robust existing contracts and a diversified import portfolio that includes Russia,...
Europe will soon face the same kind of fuel supply disruptions as Asia due to the war in Iran, says Shell’s CEO 🇪🇺 ⚠️ “If you look through the slate, jet fuel is already being impacted. Diesel will be next...
I’m asked frequently about whether governments are intervening in futures markets already, and I have no idea nor have I seen any evidence. But, if they are and if Hormuz remains shut, it’ll only work for a bit longer before physical...
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith told CERAWeek attendees that Canada can fill the United States’ oil‑gap by adding roughly 2.5 million barrels per day of southbound pipeline capacity. She reiterated Alberta’s goal to double crude output to about eight million barrels per...
No judgment. We’re all dealing with the Iran War oil market in our own way.
Gold and silver futures rallied late Tuesday, with gold up $65 to $4,505 per ounce and silver gaining $2.10 to $71.45. Both metals rebounded from earlier intraday lows of $4,340 and $66.16, respectively. The rally came amid renewed geopolitical tension...
As a result of the US-Israeli war in Iran, ALUMINUM prices are UP 12-40% THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. The world’s biggest carmakers are reportedly “panic buying.” CARMAKERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/yRInvBpEdm
Iran is testing a selective passage strategy in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing only certain vessels to transit the waterway. Analysts describe the approach as a calibrated tactic that balances political leverage with economic self‑preservation. By targeting specific ships, Tehran...
Recent attacks on Gulf LNG facilities, including Qatar's Ras Laffan plant, have driven JKM prices above $25 per MMBtu and tightened supply for Asia, which absorbs 86% of Hormuz‑transiting cargoes. In Europe, TTF prices have surged past $64 per MWh,...
Oil executives warn that the ongoing war in Iran is severely disrupting crude and refined product flows, creating a global supply crunch. The resulting shortages are driving price spikes that are eroding demand across industrial and consumer sectors. Analysts anticipate...
Diesel prices have climbed to $5.15 per gallon, up from $4.89 a week earlier and $1.57 above the month‑ago average, marking a $1.69 year‑over‑year increase. Ag economist Charley Martinez warns that the higher fuel cost is inflating livestock trucking expenses,...
$GLD trading at 411 AH on the 30day ceasefire news-- should be interesting day tomorrow if it holds to be true https://t.co/0vrW5jToHm
Three big picture observations about the oil surplus (petrodollars/ petroeuros/ petroequities are all downstream of this) pre Hormuz A) The oil surplus is modest relative to the surplus in Asia. Chinese state banks and offshore deposits of Chinese exporters are...
U.S. policymakers are urging the creation of a strategic reserve for critical minerals used in weapons, electric vehicles and electronics, but details of the plan were not disclosed. The move comes as Middle‑East conflict spikes oil prices and fuels concerns...
Soaring oil prices, tight WCS differentials, and a lagging Loonie is a fantastic combination for Canadian oil producers.
Physical gold down 10 straight days... a record... but $GLD was up today by 0.03% @stockcharts https://t.co/VFPXaVWobA
