Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Macquarie Strategists Predict USA Crude Inventory Drop
Macquarie strategists forecast U.S. crude inventories will drop by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending April 24, following a 1.9 million‑barrel build the prior week. The model also anticipates a sizable 7.1 million‑barrel draw from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and modest increases in refinery runs. Exports are projected to surge by 1.3 million barrels per day while imports edge up slightly, creating a tighter supply balance. Gasoline and distillate stocks are expected to decline, with jet fuel inventories rising.
Powell’s Final FOMC Meeting Faces Inflation Spike and Nominee Warsh’s Balance‑Sheet Push
Jerome Powell presided over his last Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 29 as U.S. inflation is projected to rise to 3.56% in April, a 116‑basis‑point two‑month jump driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict. At the same time, President‑elect Donald Trump’s...
Physical‑paper Oil Price Gap Narrows to Six‑week Low
Lots of ink was spilled in recent weeks on decoupling between physical and paper oil prices (lhs). But here we are: the gap (rhs) is the narrowest it's been in 6 weeks. This after all the talk this gap could...
Thailand Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast to 1.6% as Oil Prices Jump to $91 Amid Middle East Conflict
Thailand's Finance Ministry slashed its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.6% from 2% and raised the crude oil price outlook to $91 a barrel, citing the spillover of the Iran‑Israel war into global commodity markets. The downgrade underscores the vulnerability...
Indian Rupee Slides as Oil Prices Surge, Losing 3.5% Since West Asia Conflict
The Indian rupee weakened by roughly 3.5% against the U.S. dollar after crude oil prices jumped from $63 to above $114 per barrel, a shift tied to the West Asia war. Reserve Bank of India officials warned of heightened external...
UAE Leaves OPEC, Stripping Cartel of Its Third‑Largest Producer
The United Arab Emirates announced it will quit OPEC effective May 1, ending nearly 60 years of membership and freeing Abu Dhabi to increase output toward a 5 million‑barrel‑per‑day capacity. The exit removes about 15% of OPEC’s production, raising questions about the cartel’s ability...
Natural Gas Prices Weekly Update – JKM, TTF and Henry Hub (27 April 2026)
Last week natural gas prices diverged across regions: Asian spot LNG (JKM) climbed to the low‑$17 per MMBtu range, while European TTF rose to $15.4 per MMBtu, and U.S. Henry Hub slipped to $2.6 per MMBtu. The JKM rally was...
US Treasury Yields Jump to 4.35% as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Fears
U.S. Treasury yields surged on Tuesday, with the two‑year note topping 3.85% and the 10‑year reaching 4.35%, the highest in about a month. The spike was driven by rising oil prices and heightened inflation worries amid the ninth‑week Iran‑related conflict,...
UAE Leaves OPEC, Stripping Cartel of 13% Capacity as May 1 Exit Takes Effect
The United Arab Emirates announced it will quit OPEC on May 1, ending a 59‑year membership and removing roughly 13% of the cartel’s production capacity. The move follows months of friction with Saudi Arabia and a desire to free up spare...
Oil Climbs Above $100 as US Pressures Iran
Oil prices are higher again as the US doubles down on Iran: With news that America's "blockade of the blockade" is now targeting Iranian ports longer-term, WTI oil has followed Brent in trading above $100 (CNBC table below). #economy #oil #markets
Gold Loses Lustre on Middle East War
Gold prices surged to a record‑near $5,600 per ounce in January but fell back to an average of $4,873 per ounce in the first quarter, as the World Gold Council reported a 5% drop in investment volumes. Heavy outflows in...
Japan’s Ferrous Scrap Exports Dip in March
Japan’s ferrous scrap exports slipped in March, falling 5.1% month‑on‑month to 597,000 tonnes and 7.5% year‑on‑year. The decline was driven by a sharp ¥7,000/t ($44/t) rise in domestic scrap prices, prompting suppliers to favor local mills. Exports to Vietnam rose...
Trader PhD Survey Highlights Fertilizer Price Impact on 2026 Crop Year
A Trader PhD survey of more than 800 U.S. producers shows 76.5% have pre‑booked fertilizer for the 2026 growing season, with the Midwest leading at 83% and the South lagging at 68%. Despite higher input costs driven by the Middle‑East conflict,...
Interview with AGAGA
Alasdair Macleod argues that China’s massive household savings—estimated at $30 trillion—combined with new gold‑accumulation accounts could enable the country to purchase the world’s entire annual gold output. He contrasts the All‑In Sustaining Cost of top gold miners, which yields roughly $54,000...
Thai Influencer Sells Premium Durians for Dirt Cheap to Avoid Rotting Amid Surplus
Thai influencer Pimrypie used a four‑hour live stream to sell premium Monthong durians at as low as $3 per fruit, far below the usual $21‑$24 price, in an effort to prevent a looming surplus. The broadcast attracted 700,000 peak viewers...
Red Meat Tops List of Domestic Food Price Inflation Items
Australia’s March CPI showed headline inflation jump to 4.6% year‑on‑year, the fastest pace since September 2023. Red‑meat prices, led by beef and lamb, surged 11.8% and were the biggest driver of food‑price inflation, while coffee rose 10.7%. Overall food inflation held...
Global Oil Dynamics Enter Volatile Phase After UAE Decision: Peter McGuire
The United Arab Emirates announced a surprise departure from the OPEC+ alliance, cutting roughly 12% of the bloc’s production capacity. The move caught markets off guard, prompting immediate price spikes as West Texas Intermediate hovered around $100 per barrel. Analysts,...
Singapore’s Gold Demand Jumps Record 42% in Q1 Amid Geopolitical Risks, Volatile Prices
Investor demand for physical gold in Singapore surged 42% year‑on‑year to 3.5 tonnes in Q1 2026, the highest on record. Global bar and coin demand also rose 42% to 473.6 tonnes, while Asian‑listed gold ETFs added 84 tonnes, outpacing other regions. Prices peaked near...
FTSE 100 Live: Stocks Drop as Oil Holds Firm over $110; UK Growth Slashed
The FTSE 100 opened lower, slipping 0.2% to 10,316 as oil prices stayed above $110 per barrel and the UK’s growth outlook was sharply cut, with the Treasury estimating a £35 bn (≈$44.5 bn) hit from the Iran war. Major corporates reported mixed...
Crude Shock: Ajay Bagga on How $90 Oil Could Dent India Inc's Earnings and Test Government's Fiscal Nerve
India’s crude import bill could jump from $150 bn to $200‑$225 bn as oil prices surged from $63 to $114‑$116 per barrel, pushing the annual price outlook to around $90 per barrel. Market veteran Ajay Bagga warns the extra $50‑$75 bn cost will strain...
Silver Drops, yet Traders Pile Into Long Options
Despite #silver closing down 3.88% at $82.2/oz on the #SHFE yesterday, the options flow tells a different story. Traders have been adding to their long bets
CITIC Turns Bullish, Adds 3,022 Silver Contracts
#CITIC Flips Long on Silver🚨Major positioning shift on the #SHFE as CITIC has officially flipped Net Positive (+3,022 contracts) on silver.
UAE, Saudi Bypass Hormuz to Boost Crude Supplies to India
India’s crude imports averaged 4.4 million barrels per day in April, 15% below February’s peak, as the country offsets Hormuz‑related disruptions by tapping alternative routes. Saudi Arabia lifted shipments to 697,000 bpd by diverting oil from Ras Tanura to the Yanbu Red Sea...
Saudi Aramco Halts LPG Exports Through May After Damage
Saudi Aramco announced it will suspend LPG exports from its Juaymah facility through May after a support structure collapsed in February, delaying repairs. The halt adds to regional supply constraints already strained by the near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz....
When Will Gasoline Prices Go Down?
Gasoline prices remain elevated as oil futures react to heightened geopolitical risk and a tightening global supply outlook. Uncertainty surrounding potential Iran‑U.S. peace talks and a recent halt in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have added volatility to...
Oil Market Update: Oil Prices Holding Near Recent Highs
Crude oil is hovering above $110 as the Strait of Hormuz remains a bottleneck, shifting market focus from headline risk to physical flow constraints. Washington has signaled a willingness to extend a blockade, while Tehran prioritises reopening the strait, leaving...
UAE Exits OPEC, Iran Peace Talks Spark Mixed Moves in European Stocks
The United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC on April 28, 2026, just as U.S. President Donald Trump weighed an Iranian peace proposal. The twin geopolitical shocks sent the pan‑European Stoxx 600 down 0.3% in one report, while another...
ECB Signals Hawkish Shift as Oil‑Driven Inflation Risks Rise
The European Central Bank left policy rates unchanged in March but delivered a more hawkish outlook, citing rising oil prices and heightened inflation risks. Inflation jumped to 2.6% year‑on‑year in March, and the probability of a 25‑basis‑point hike in June...
World Bank Predicts 24% Jump in 2026 Energy Prices, Biggest Commodity Shock Since 2022
The World Bank’s latest commodity outlook projects global energy prices to rise 24% in 2026, the sharpest increase since the 2022 Ukraine conflict. Brent crude is expected to average $86 a barrel, up from $69 in 2025, while fertilizer costs...
High Costs, Weak Markets: Middle East Conflict Will Have Long-Term Impact on Asia’s Food Supply
Shipping disruptions in the Middle East have sharply curtailed energy and fertiliser flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Asian input costs up 50‑80% while export prices stay flat. Gulf nations have slashed imports of Asian rice, meat and dairy,...
Indonesia Reexamines QMB Nickel Licence Amid Tightening RKAB Quotas
Indonesia reviews QMB nickel licence after IMIP landslide as RKAB quotas tighten nickel supply. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/qmb-nickel-licence-review-signals.html
Oil Markets Stalled; Inflation Rising, Consumers Feel It First
Talks are stuck, Hormuz is still constrained, and paper oil is catching up to physical reality. UAE policy shifts don’t matter mid-crisis. Inflation is rising—and consumers see it before policymakers do. #OilMarkets #Inflation #Hormuz https://t.co/210C3G49T1
Tullow Oil Shares Jump Over 9% as West African Crude Hits $130/Barrel Record
Tullow Oil Plc’s shares jumped over 9% on the London Stock Exchange after the company announced that its West African crude sold at a record $130 per barrel in April, the highest price ever for a Tullow cargo. The premium...
China's LNG Imports Plunge to Eight‑year Low Amid Middle East Conflict
DEMAND DESTRUCTION: China's LNG imports are on track to hit an 8-year low 🇨🇳🚢 The Middle East conflict is choking supply of LNG to China. It is also boosting spot prices, discouraging Chinese firms to buy replacements China can instead turn to...
Iran War Triggers Historic Oil Blockade, BP Q1 Profit More Than Doubles to $3.2 Bn
BP reported an underlying replacement‑cost profit of $3.2 bn for Q1, more than double the prior year, after the Iran‑U.S. war shut the Strait of Hormuz and sent crude prices soaring. The blockade, described by the IEA as the largest energy‑security...
Daqo New Energy Corp (DQ) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Daqo New Energy Corp reported a full‑year turnaround in 2025, posting positive EBITDA of $1.7 million and generating $66.1 million of operating cash flow after a $435 million outflow the prior year. Revenue fell to $665 million as polysilicon ASP declined 7.2%, but the...
Turkmen Gas Is Back on Turkey’s Agenda
Turkey has lost its Iranian gas imports, which supplied about 15% of its demand, and is reviving interest in a trans‑Caspian pipeline to bring Turkmen gas to Turkey and Europe. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar urged international talks on the never‑built...
U.S. Light Shale Oil Mismatch Drives Massive Imports
The US produces oil but not the right kind • US crude is dominated by light shale oil • Refineries are optimized for heavier crude • Light oils yield too much gasoline, not enough diesel That's why the US imports 6 mmb/d #energy #OOTT...
Gold Outlook Stalls Amid War Inflation
Gold prices slipped to $4,628.88 per ounce, a three‑week low, as war‑driven inflation dampens expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Analysts now project the Fed will keep the federal funds rate at 3.50‑3.75% through 2026, limiting gold's upside. The near‑term support...
Manufacturing Demand and Infrastructure Drive Steady Growth in Australia Steel Market, IMARC Reports
The IMARC Group forecasts Australia’s steel market to grow from roughly $20.1 billion in 2025 to about $26.6 billion by 2034, a 3.03% compound annual growth rate. Steady demand is anchored by construction, infrastructure projects and a resilient manufacturing base, especially automotive...
Gulf Sealed Tight
The United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC, citing the need to boost output to fund post‑crisis reconstruction. With the UAE’s departure, Saudi Arabia becomes the sole OPEC member prepared to implement substantial production cuts under normal market conditions....
Spot Prices Wrap: Northeast, Midwest Hubs Strengthen on Chilly Forecasts
Physical natural gas spot prices rose in the Northeast and Midwest on Tuesday as colder weather forecasts lifted heating demand. Seasonal maintenance at key production facilities and reduced export volumes constrained supply, while an unexpected uptick in power‑generation consumption added...
Private Survey Inventory Shows a Huge Headline Crude Oil Draw Vs. Build Expected
A privately‑conducted API survey indicated a modest 0.3 million‑barrel increase in headline crude inventories, while expectations were for a sizable draw. The upcoming official EIA report, due Wednesday, is anticipated to show a large crude decline, creating a stark contrast between...
Iran War Disrupting Global Gas Markets
The International Energy Agency warns that the war in Iran has triggered a sharp supply shock in the global natural‑gas market. Production disruptions and transport bottlenecks are pushing spot prices higher and eroding the momentum of a planned surge in...
Precious Metals Near Oversold, Rebound Likely Soon
The precious metals complex remains firmly in an uptrend and is now approaching oversold levels, a condition that often signals a rebound is near.
Analysts Warn Jet Fuel Crisis as Middle East Conflict Squeezes Supply
Analysts say a tightening of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed jet‑fuel prices past the $15‑per‑gallon mark and cut European reserves to just five weeks. The squeeze is already forcing carriers such as Lufthansa, KLM and Air...
Defying OPEC Quotas Invites Invasion, UAE Demands Guarantees
Probably worth reminding that the last time a gulf state defied opec quotas in the context of damages from a wider regional war with Iran, it also got invaded. Context was that after the Iran–Iraq War, Iraq was heavily indebted and...
Global Economy Inching Toward a Massive Oil Shock
Haven’t seen lines like this since airlines in March 2020 It really does seem to me that the whole world is sleepwalking into a massive oil shock. Would be delighted to be wrong. What am I missing?
Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady as Iran Conflict Stokes Inflation Fears
The Federal Reserve is poised to keep its policy rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range as the Iran‑linked war in the Strait of Hormuz lifts oil prices above $108 a barrel, raising inflation concerns. Analysts cite the conflict’s impact on consumer...
Starbucks Forecasts Lower Tariffs, Coffee Costs Later 2024
Starbucks expects tariffs and coffee prices to ease in the back half of this year. $SBUX