Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day, a symbolic adjustment as the war constrains output and shipments. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision, signaling alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
US President Donald Trump’s fluctuating threats and subsequent pull‑back on striking Iranian power plants sent oil prices tumbling and sparked sharp moves in grain futures. Canola, soybean, corn and wheat contracts all slipped, with canola down $6‑7 per tonne and soybeans falling 64 cents per bushel after a week of volatility. Meanwhile, Mexico’s CUSMA technical talks progress, Canada launches $500,000 loan support for fertilizer‑strained farms, and China’s U.S. soybean imports plunged 84% while Brazil’s shipments surged. The International Grains Council now projects a decline in global grain production for 2026/27, heightening concerns over supply‑side risks amid Middle‑East conflict and drought in the Canadian Prairies.
Gold futures opened at $4,495.20 per ounce on March 23, 2026, slipping 0.09% from the prior close of $4,499.36. The metal has fallen 10.8% over the past five trading days, reflecting short‑term volatility. Despite the dip, gold posted strong gains...
Oil prices have surged as the Strait of Hormuz closure removes roughly 20% of global supply, double the impact of the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war. In the week of March 9, U.S. diesel jumped $0.96 per gallon to $4.86, marking the largest...
WTI Peaks and Recessions: $120 (2026), $147 (2008), $130 (2022) - WTI crude oil was near unchanged for the week ending March 20 despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining mostly closed, suggesting a potential topping process reminiscent of 2008. Roughly...
Crude vs. 2026 Commodity Pump-Then-Dump Pattern - Front-month US natural gas futures surged roughly 100% to the January peak, then reversed to about a 15% decline by March 20. Will WTI crude oil follow? Silver and copper have also shifted...
The war in the Middle East has shut the Strait of Hormuz, sending global oil prices soaring and causing farm diesel in the West of England to double to about £1.25 per litre. Fertiliser costs have jumped from £350 to...
This one is intuitive and goes without saying. But let’s say it anyway; “When oil spikes, food prices tend to follow” Do you know why?
Both the COVID-19 oil shock and the current Middle East oil shock (has) caused big moves in oil prices (Volatility), but for opposite reasons though. In 2020, demand absolutely collapsed because nobody was using or wanted as much oil as...
China’s refined copper inventories shrank by 78,700 tons in the week to March 23, falling to 486,200 tons—the steepest weekly drop this year. The decline was driven by a roughly 12% price plunge on the London Metal Exchange this month, spurred...
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 120 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major gas futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 17....
The Iran‑Israel conflict has nearly closed the Strait of Hormuz, sending Singapore diesel swaps soaring to about $180 a barrel—almost double pre‑conflict levels. Fortescue Metals Group, the world’s fourth‑largest iron‑ore producer, said a 10‑cent diesel price shift translates to $70 million...
Three weeks into the Iran‑Israel war, Brent futures have jumped about 50 % to roughly $110 a barrel, yet physical oil prices are rising even faster as supplies tighten. Spot benchmarks such as Oman ($162) and Murban ($145) are soaring, and...
Malaysia’s Deputy Prime Minister Fadillah Yusof said Petronas is preparing contingency plans to source oil and gas from Australia and other Asia‑Pacific nations as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the Middle East conflict. The closure has pushed...
OK, let’s get this out in the open so we all know where we stand. I’m a long-term #copper bull. But I’m a short-term copper bear. And this is why. I was both a long-term and short-term copper bull in 2008 –...
This is correct So much of the world now can increasingly just be driven by overconfidently posting through it—but not oil, not for long Hormuz flow still hasn't resumed and every day we're shedding more oil from the system That'll catch up—can't jawbone...
The article proposes a "Supply Accord" – a coordinated fiscal‑monetary framework to tackle a persistent, geopolitically‑driven oil shock that has moved from price spikes to real supply constraints. It argues that the Fed’s rate tool can protect the inflation anchor...
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the US flow rate from the SPR exchange would amount to be 1.0-1.5m b/d and says the total IEA release would come close to 3m b/d. (Those are the first flow rates estimates publicly discussed...
Watch Oil Moving on ‘A Couple Words and a Tweet,’ Atlantic Council’s Wald Says - Bloomberg @ACGlobalEnergy #oott https://t.co/YElH8A8ORG
Swiss wealth manager Dieter Lüscher warned that gold and silver are about to experience a sharp, engineered dip as large short positions and expiring options pressure prices downward. He says the low could arrive within days, after which a structural...
Goldman: "Higher energy prices will boost global headline inflation sharply in the next 1-2 months.... our country-specific rules of thumb imply that the shock will add 0.8pp to global headline inflation over the next year under our baseline and 2pp...
Brent is down to $100. The latest de-escalation signal is worth about as much as the escalation signal Saturday night, but - underneath all that - it's clear that high oil prices scare this administration as much as they scared...
A war‑induced energy shock in Iran has tightened global oil supplies, prompting bond markets to price a 50% chance of a U.S. rate hike by October and spurring tighter monetary policy in Asia. Central banks such as the Reserve Bank...
its the "biggest ever shock to global oil supply", as people keep pointing out, but the US economy is also less oil-intensive than it has ever been.. https://t.co/zk9SxpcEA5
A Classic End to A major Gold and Silver Correction like we're seeing occurs when Metal Prices Fall but Miners Hold steady then Begin to rise, giving the all-clear signal- that's what investors should be watching this week. $GLD $SLV...
Gold prices have fallen 17% since their January peak, pulling South Africa's all‑share JSE index down 14.8% as gold miners, once 20% of the top‑40, saw sharp sell‑offs. The decline is linked to leveraged positions unwinding after gold’s rally to...
In this podcast conversation with @paulkrugman from last week, we debate my view that oil prices are near their peak because large risk premia are priced into oil that embed substantially reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Watch...
Crude Oil creating one of the largest monthly bearish reversal patterns in its history, as it tests the top of its trading range? $USO $SPY $TLT https://t.co/GivNir6qgu
Smaller Japanese companies across auto parts, plastics, and trucking are feeling the impact of the largest Middle East oil‑supply disruption in decades. Crude prices have jumped to multi‑year highs, driving up fuel and raw‑material costs for firms that typically operate...
Global LNG exports drop to the lowest level in six months due to Middle East conflict ⚠️ 🚢 This basically erases supply additions from the US and elsewhere during that period The drop is primarily from Qatar — and to a...
European natural gas prices drop as much as 9% after Trump said he instructed US forces to postpone all strikes against Iranian infrastructure for 5 days 🇪🇺 ⚠️ Prices still well above pre-war levels And there’s been no direct/indirect contact...
Thungela Resources reported a full‑year loss of R7.1 billion (≈$374 million) after taking an R8.8 billion (≈$463 million) asset impairment tied to a steep drop in thermal‑coal prices. South African export coal fell 20% to $89.53 per ton and Australian Ensham prices slipped 17%...
People had lots of questions about the oil shock after this weekend's podcast with @paulkrugman, including on all the different types of oil and which one is most important. I've been pounding the table that oil prices have peaked, so...
The outage at the world’s biggest LNG export plant in Qatar is apparently benefiting Russia 🇷🇺 ⚠️ Russia’s largest LNG producer Novatek has signed a preliminary deal to supply Vietnam, Tass reported citing CEO Mikhelson (Vietnam is struggling to buy LNG...
Australia’s National Farmers’ Federation warns that soaring diesel prices, triggered by the US‑Israel war on Iran, will soon push grocery costs higher. Farmers are struggling to secure fuel for operations, while transport firms face mounting freight expenses. The National Road...
Oil and energy commodities tumble after Trump postpones U.S. strikes against Iran energy infrastructure for five days: CNBC https://t.co/nO7poYHdmx
Bullish reversal coming…discount window in gold and silver going to come to an end soon. https://t.co/Yd9oNzf6ao
Urea prices have surged, pushing the urea‑to‑wheat ratio to 1.83, a 97th‑percentile level that compresses farmer margins. Historical analysis of five major spikes since the 1970s shows elevations lasting from six months to nearly five years, depending on whether the...
An off ramp? A TACO? Another bait and switch? Brent cratered ~$16/bbl on Trump’s latest post talking about “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. https://t.co/6dfE8zEiRE
1-year % change: silver +105% gold +50.3% oil +44% S&P 500 $SPX +14.9% bonds $AGG -0.2% long bonds $TLT -5.9%
The UK government will double import duties on foreign steel to 50% and slash import quotas by 60% from July, aiming to protect domestic steelmakers. HS2 contractor Mace warned the move will exacerbate already‑inflated construction costs, as the Iran‑war energy...
Compare and contrast US Natural Gas prices to European TTF Natural Gas prices. US prices have barely moved. What was that about there only being one international price for gas 👀 This is what madness looks like with respect to energy policy...
Adnoc is now reducing LNG production because Strait of Hormuz is shut, tightening the global gas market 🇦🇪 ⚠️ Adnoc has “made temporary operational adjustments to production of Liquefied Natural Gas” They’re working with customers to fulfill commitments “wherever possible” https://t.co/dLBNlgiLER
Crude oil futures surged on Monday as US‑Iran tensions escalated, pushing Brent crude above $108 per barrel and WTI close to $99. The rise was sparked by President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s retaliatory...
I don’t think we have understood yet how serious this crisis is. IEA’s Fatih Birol: ~5 mb/d lost in each of the 1970s oil shocks; ~75 bcm gas after Russia’s 2022 invasion. Now: ~11 mb/d oil and ~140 bcm gas disrupted. https://t.co/6G8leH3lHR https://t.co/ESkY9LyQjx
Gold prices slumped on March 23, pulling down the shares of India’s leading gold‑loan financiers. Manappuram Finance fell about 3% while Muthoot Finance dropped more than 5% in early trading. The decline also spread to jewellery retailers, with stocks like...
"Over the past week, spot prices at the Waha gas trading hub in the Permian Basin fell as low as -$9.75 per million British thermal units, with expectations that it could hit -$10." https://t.co/camxY0zKrz
Gold’s price has slumped more than 15% this month as stagflation concerns surge following the Iran war, and the market now assigns roughly a 30% chance of a Fed rate hike by year‑end, up from expectations of multiple cuts a...
Lots of emphasis on rising fertilizer prices in the US but food is a small part of budgets in the developed world. It's around 40% of the CPI basket in Bangladesh, Thailand, Ghana and Nigeria. That's 500 MILLION people. https://t.co/g5gtlNlsWN...
The LNG shock is about to get real The last Gulf cargoes loaded before the war are now arriving After that, Europe & Asia hit the wall This is a major structural shock that may last years https://t.co/Dw60mbEoxn #LNG #Hormuz #Qatar #Pakistan #Bangladesh #Taiwan #EnergyCrisis...
If held flat at current shut-in levels of around 9 MMbpd, Gulf crude oil production would be down by ~6.5 million on the month in March. Balance math gets much uglier when these run for a full month or more—and things...
