Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
TC Energy Launches $1.5 B Appalachia Supply Project to Meet Soaring U.S. Gas Demand
TC Energy Corp. unveiled the $1.5 billion Appalachia Supply Project, a low‑risk expansion of its Columbia Gas system aimed at the high‑growth power and industrial corridor in the United States. The move follows record natural‑gas deliveries, a 3% quarterly volume rise and an oversubscribed open‑season that signals strong demand from data‑center operators and heavy industry.
Rocky Mountain Power Joins Western Extended Day‑Ahead Market, Aiming to Cut Wyoming Rates
Rocky Mountain Power, the largest utility in Wyoming and a PacifiCorp subsidiary, began trading in the new Western Extended Day‑Ahead Market on Thursday night. The move could let the utility meet 100% of its demand through market purchases, up from...
Durian Express? New Southeast Asia Rail Service Cuts Fruit Prices in China
A new cold‑storage rail line linking Thailand, Laos and Yunnan province in China now moves durians at scale, reducing transit time from weeks to under two days. Operated by a joint venture of regional rail operators, the service lowers logistics...
US LNG Exports to Asia Surged in April as Middle East Conflict Curtailed Supply
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Asia surged in April, with shipments climbing to 2.71 million tonnes—up 175% from February—after Middle‑East supply was disrupted by the Iran conflict. Asian spot LNG prices stayed high, averaging $17.92 per MMBtu, roughly 17%...
Oil Falls on Hopes for US-Iran Negotiations, Hormuz Progress
Oil slipped to around $102 per barrel on Friday as US‑Iran peace talks remain tenuous, even though West Texas Intermediate posted an 8% weekly gain. Traders trimmed risk amid thin volumes and global market holidays, while the ongoing de‑facto closure...
Russia Now Main Supplier Of Oil To Post-Assad Syria, Despite Pivot To West
Russia has surged to become Syria’s leading oil supplier after the fall of Bashar al‑Assad, with shipments climbing 75% to about 60,000 barrels per day. The increase reflects Damascus’ acute energy shortfall and a pragmatic turn toward Moscow despite a...
India's Sensex Slides 0.75% as Oil Spike and Geopolitical Tensions Drag Markets
The BSE Sensex fell 582.86 points (0.75%) to 76,913.50 and the NSE Nifty 50 slipped 180.10 points (0.74%) to 23,997.55 on Thursday. A surge in Brent crude above $120 per barrel and heightened geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz...
US Citrus Imports Would Not Affect Domestic Supply
Taiwan's agriculture ministry says U.S. tangerine imports, averaging 1,115 tonnes a year, represent only about 1% of domestic consumption and will not disrupt the local citrus market. Imports arrive from March to May, a period that does not coincide with Taiwan's...
Exxon, Chevron Ramp Refinery Utilization Amid Mideast Crisis
Exxon Mobil and Chevron are aggressively increasing refinery utilization in response to severe supply disruptions caused by the near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical bottleneck has driven crude and refined product prices to their highest levels in several...
US Producer Antero Expects Cash Boost From Mideast War
Antero Resources, a U.S. natural‑gas producer, says the ongoing Middle East conflict will act as a significant cash‑flow tailwind. The near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz is tightening global oil and gas supplies, pushing prices higher. Antero expects higher gas...
New US Entrants Lining Up to Fill Global LNG Supply Gap
U.S. developers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have cleared two critical regulatory hurdles, positioning new export projects to enter service within the next few years. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved construction permits while the Department of Energy issued export...
Crude Tankers Decline Despite Yanbu Demand
Crude shipments from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port surged to roughly 4‑4.2 million barrels per day in April, compensating for a steep drop in Middle‑East Gulf loadings that fell to 1.8‑1.9 million b/d after the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict halted Hormuz traffic. Despite the Yanbu...
Oil Cools Slightly After a 4-Year High as Gasoline Jumps
Brent crude slipped to $108.27 a barrel on Friday after hitting a four‑year high above $120 amid shaky U.S.–Iran peace talks. West Texas Intermediate fell about 3% to $101.92, reflecting broader market cooling. Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline prices rose 9 cents...
It Now Costs $160 to Fill up America’s Top-Selling Vehicle as the Iran War Nears Its 10th Week
Gasoline prices have surged to four‑year highs since the Iran war began, reaching $4.42 per gallon nationally. At that price, filling a new Ford F‑150, America’s best‑selling vehicle, costs about $160. The price jump represents a nearly 50% increase in nine...
Exxon Mobil CEO Sees ‘More to Come’ on Price Spikes From Iran War as Exxon, Chevron Beat on Earnings Despite...
Exxon Mobil and Chevron posted first‑quarter earnings that beat analysts’ forecasts, yet both saw net income plunge year‑over‑year as early‑year price weakness and Middle‑East disruptions hit results. CEOs Darren Woods and Mike Wirth warned that if the Strait of Hormuz...
Soybean, Corn Futures Boosted by Technical Buying, Watching Planting
Soybean and corn futures rose on a wave of fund‑driven technical buying, extending gains that were already in place. USDA data showed soybean crush in March up 13 million bushels month‑over‑month, while corn ethanol use jumped 10% from February. Planting conditions...
UN Warns Hormuz Blockade Could Trigger Global Recession as US‑Iran Tensions Flare
U.N. Secretary‑General Antonio Guterres urged the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that a prolonged choke‑point could spark a global recession with inflation soaring past 6%. The warning comes as U.S. naval forces confront Iranian vessels and Brent...
US Inflation Jumps 0.7% in March, Annual Rate Hits 3.5% Amid Iran War Gasoline Surge
U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 0.7% in March, pushing the annual rate to 3.5%, the fastest increase since May 2023. The surge was driven by a 24.1% jump in gasoline prices after the Iran war disrupted oil supplies,...
U.S. and China Vie for Zambia’s $10 Billion Battery‑Metal Market
U.S.-backed KoBold Metals began construction on the $2.3 billion Mingomba copper mine while Chinese Cinfeng Investment Limited Group proposed a $40 million restart of the Munali nickel mine, highlighting a $10 billion scramble for Zambia’s battery‑metal assets.
UAE Leaves OPEC Effective May 1, 2026, Redefining Global Oil Coordination
The United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance effective May 1, 2026, ending nearly 60 years of participation. The move follows long‑standing disputes with Saudi Arabia over quota allocations and aims to let Abu Dhabi fully monetize its expanding...
Shell's 2025 Profit Drops 22% as Oil Price Rout Slashes Earnings
Shell said underlying earnings fell 22% to $18.53 billion for 2025 as Brent crude slid below $60 a barrel. The oil major announced a $3.5 billion share‑buyback and a 4% dividend increase, but its shares slipped more than 2% on the news.
Crude Futures Fall on New Iran Proposal for Peace Talks
Crude futures slipped on Friday after Iran sent a new peace proposal to Pakistani mediators, easing some of the market’s war‑risk premium. Brent settled at $108.17 a barrel, down $2.23, while WTI fell to $101.94, down $3.13. Despite the dip,...
Wyoming’s Largest Utility Joins a New Western Day Ahead Market for Electricity
Wyoming’s largest utility, Rocky Mountain Power— a PacifiCorp subsidiary—began trading in the new Extended Day Ahead Market on the Western grid, which runs on CAISO’s platform. The market expands access to a broader pool of buyers and sellers, allowing the...
Oil Falls on Hopes for US-Iran Negotiations, Hormuz Progress
Oil prices slipped as West Texas Intermediate dropped up to 5.5% before stabilizing near $102 per barrel, reflecting thin trading ahead of Labor Day holidays. Ongoing US‑Iran negotiations remain deadlocked, with both sides maintaining a de‑facto blockade of the Strait...
Shift in the Middle East Has Implications for Countries Like Australia
The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC, marking a dramatic break with its Gulf neighbours and underscoring a new strategic direction. UAE diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash warned that Gulf policies toward Iran have failed and called for a...
U.S. Oil Prices Will Exceed Iran Wartime High to Above $125 as Conflict Drags on, Kalshi Traders Say
Traders on the Kalshi prediction‑market platform see a better‑than‑50% chance that U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will climb to around $127 per barrel in 2026, well above the current $113 level. A 63% probability now exists for WTI to...
Daily Energy Report
The ongoing Iran‑Russia conflict has fractured Asia’s diesel market, creating a two‑tier system where affluent refiners like China and South Korea curb exports while poorer importers scramble for supply. India, needing export revenue, has continued to ship diesel, with March...
Exxon Mobil CEO Expects Higher Oil Prices Due to Iran War: ‘The Market Hasn’t Seen the Full Impact’
Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods warned that current oil prices do not reflect the full impact of the Iran‑triggered supply shock, noting that strategic reserves and in‑transit tankers have temporarily cushioned the market. He said oil flows from the Persian...
Iran War Stalemate Fuels Oil Price Gamble
The bottom line is the Iran War is "stuck." No War (shooting) No Peace No Shipping No Crude Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, and/or Helium And it will stay "stuck" until circumstances change. The most likely change ... * The US/Israel restart kinetic attacks with the goal...
Renewables Shield Consumers From Fuel Price Volatility
Retail electricity prices are influenced by fuel volatility, transmission upgrades, grid maintenance, and utility rate structures. Natural gas price spikes, such as those seen in 2022, directly raised electricity costs in gas-dependent regions because fuel costs are passed through to...
Diesel Prices Decline While Gasoline Costs Rise Across U.S. Markets
Diesel prices slipped 5 cents to $5.351 per gallon, while gasoline rose 8 cents to $4.123 per gallon, according to the EIA. The West Coast saw the steepest diesel decline, down 9 cents to $6.53, whereas the Rocky Mountain region...
Strait of Hormuz Closure Cuts 10M Barrels Daily
According to the World Bank’s NEW Commodity Markets Outlook report, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz wiped out around ~10 MILLION BARRELS/DAY of global oil supply. This is the LARGEST DISRUPTION ON RECORD https://t.co/ERT2BN8SaZ
Foregone Gulf Oil Costs Exceed $60 Billion
Cost of foregone Gulf oil production alone—not counting LNG, fertilizer, helium supply chain consequences—is currently valued at $60+ billion.
JPMorgan: 'Exponential' Oil Price Escalation Coming In May; Ignore The Friday Fudge
JPMorgan warned that OECD commercial oil inventories will reach operational minimums between May 9 and May 30, triggering an exponential rise in crude prices. The note cites a cumulative loss of roughly 1 billion barrels of production and an additional 400 million barrels lost...
Join Saturday 7 Am Talk on Rising Oil Prices
“Hi, would you be interested in joining us for a conversation about oil prices at 7am Saturday morning?” https://t.co/28SRRhRIua
Spot Oil Prices Outpace Futures as Timing Drives Gap
"WTI and Brent are near $100, but physical crude is way higher." Isn't that just a timing issue? Real-time oil is obviously going to be way more expensive than oil contracts expiring in 1-2 months.
GTCR Teams with Data Veteran Brian Crotty to Launch Avelis Holdings
GTCR announced a partnership with seasoned data executive Brian Crotty to form Avelis Holdings, a subscription‑based market‑intelligence platform targeting commodity and industrial sectors. The move underscores GTCR’s Leaders Strategy™ of building operating capabilities alongside seasoned CEOs to capture fragmented data...
US‑Iran Talks Stall, Oil Stocks Dip Another 100 M Barrels
Every weekend half my feed expects a sudden breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations and the other half expects a sharp resumption of bombings. Of course, the most likely outcome is that absolutely nothing changes and we do this again next week, down...
High LNG Prices Curb China's Imports, Freeing Supply Globally
Zero signal about China here China is a discretionary LNG importer. It can generate with dirtier domestic coal if needed. High prices generally mean lower imports. Helps globally -- China is freeing up LNG for folks...
Yara Warns Iran War Could Spark Fertilizer Price Surge and Food Shortages in Africa
Yara International’s CEO Svein Tore Holsether warned that the Iran war has driven urea prices up 60‑70% and could trigger a global fertilizer auction, leaving Africa’s most vulnerable farmers unable to afford inputs. The warning comes as supply chains scramble...
Crude Prices Surge as Iran War Persists, UAE Exits OPEC
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices climb amidst ongoing deadlocked diplomacy, the third month of the Iran War, breaching the billion lost barrel threshold, and the UAE announcing an abrupt departure from OPEC. Summary below, link to full...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Solar Aluminium Supply Chain
How the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects solar aluminium sourcing #energysky -- via pv-tech: https://t.co/NvUU88jGsi
U.S. Navy Blockade Pushes Iran’s Oil to Sea Storage
US Naval Blockade Squeezes Iran's Oil Exports, Forces Crude Onto Floating Storage. What us the Navy doing if there us no war? https://t.co/IVew9eYx3o
War‑Fueled Oil Surge Boosts Exxon, Chevron Profits
Exxon, Chevron Beat Profit Estimates on War-Driven Oil Rally. Americans paying higher gas prices to feed corporate greed? https://t.co/tsjWhL6DSr
Great Lakes Gas Prices Surge to $4.43 Average
$4.43 average gas price right now - massive w/w gains in the Great Lakes.. $1 or more in some spots https://t.co/2ER5bwqoz3
Higher Oil Prices Will Cripple Demand, Stalling Rises
"no, oil prices won't rise because demand will be destroyed due to rising prices.." https://t.co/pBEj3OkRN5
July Brent Prompt Surges $9, Outpacing Weekly Gain
Prompt Brent crude weekly price gain: +$3/bbl July Brent, now the prompt contract weekly gain: +$9/bbl
Gasoline Crack Spreads Hit 2022 High Ahead of Summer
US gasoline crack spreads sitting at their highest level since 2022. Brent crude is currently going for ~$107.50 per barrel. New York Harbor gasoline going for $150 per barrel. And summer driving season is about to kick off. https://t.co/nFAPXdyFZx
China Still Dominates US Soybean Exports Despite Low Volumes
🇺🇸🇨🇳Even though China.... ✔️Didn't start buying until late October ✔️Has secured the smallest U.S. tonnage in 19 years .... it's still by FAR the leading destination for U.S. soybean exports so far in 2025/26, a reminder of how hard China is to replace...
Short‑term Oil Loss From Hormuz Can Be Offset
In the short-term and for a limited time, the losses of oil from the Straits of Hormuz can be made up. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/xfKk6k7sQC