Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Why Is Gas So Much More Expensive in Some States Than Others?
Gasoline prices have surged about 50% since the Iran‑Israel conflict began, with the national average reaching $4.54 per gallon on May 6, 2026. California leads with $6.16 per gallon, while Oklahoma sits at $3.96, illustrating stark regional gaps. The price swing reflects higher crude costs, the concentration of refineries in Louisiana and Texas, and the expense of moving fuel long distances. State taxes, regulations and local competition further widen the gap between counties and cities.
THE COMING URANIUM SQUEEZE: The 85M Lb Deficit, the A.I. Demand Shock, the Hollowed-Out U.S. Production Crisis & Why Uranium...
Uranium markets are entering a tight supply cycle, with global demand projected to outpace supply by roughly 85 million pounds, driven largely by AI‑powered data centers and grid modernization. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust now holds over 81 million pounds—about two years...
Central Banks Turn Net Sellers of Gold for the First Time in 10 Months
For the first time in ten months, central banks were net sellers of gold in March, disposing of roughly 30 tonnes. Turkey led the outflows with a 60‑tonne sale, while Russia shed 6 tonnes, both citing liquidity and budget needs. In contrast,...
Online Sleuths Are Raising More Red Flags Around Suspiciously Timed Iran-War Oil Trades
Oil prices plunged after reports that the United States and Iran were close to a peace agreement, sending Brent down 11.9% and WTI over 13%. Data from The Kobeissi Letter revealed nearly $920 million in crude‑oil short contracts opened just an...
Oil Prices Drop and Stock Markets Rise After Reports of Deal to End Iran War
Oil markets fell and global equities rose after reports that the United States and Iran are close to a one‑page memorandum ending the war. Brent crude dropped to $97 (≈£73) per barrel before rebounding above $101, down from a peak...
Brazil Central Bank Holds Tight Policy as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Pressures
Brazil's central bank approved a 0.25‑percentage‑point cut to the Selic rate, bringing it to 14.5%, yet signaled that monetary policy will remain restrictive. Officials cited the war in the Middle East, higher global oil prices and strong domestic demand as...
Iron Ore Hits $110.25/ton, Highest Since Oct 2024 as Chinese Buyers Return
Iron ore futures surged 1.6% to $110.25 a ton in Singapore, the highest price since October 2024, as Chinese steel producers rushed back to the market after a five‑day holiday. The rebound reflects a sharp shift in demand from the...
Q&A: How the Strait of Hormuz Closure Affects Global Oil Supply
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted the transit of roughly 20% of the world’s oil, sending shockwaves through global commodity markets. Tim Statts of Schneider Electric explains that despite the U.S. being the top oil producer, it...
Sustainable Funding for Agriculture
Food inflation in the Philippines surged to 6.1% in May, with rice prices up 13.7%, while fuel‑driven cost spikes hit fish and vegetables. The 2026 national budget earmarked ₱215 billion (≈$3.9 billion) for agriculture, a 38% increase, yet formal credit to farmers...
Opinion: A Fertilizer Crisis Is Driving up Costs — Don’t Waste a Homegrown Solution
Global supply shocks have driven U.S. fertilizer prices up as much as 40%, adding six‑figure costs to farmers. The article proposes using digestate—nutrient‑rich fertilizer from biogas digestion of manure and food waste—as a domestic alternative that can lower input costs...
Gold, Silver Firm up on Prospects of Easing US-Iran Tensions
Gold surged to ₹1,50,860 per 10 g (≈ $5,600 per ounce) and silver to ₹2,49,067 per kg (≈ $93 per ounce) as news of a possible US‑Iran peace deal lifted market sentiment. The rally coincided with Brent crude dropping 7% to about $102...
Burning Money: Waha Gas Price
Upstream operators in the Permian are facing a 47‑day stretch of negative gas prices at the Waha hub, driven by a surge of roughly 22 Bcf/d of associated gas from record tight‑oil drilling that outpaces existing takeaway capacity. The imbalance forces...
Norwegian Government Attacked over Decision to Reopen North Sea Gasfields
The Norwegian Labour government approved the reopening of three North Sea gasfields and the opening of 70 new offshore exploration areas, committing roughly $2 billion to restart the Albuskjell, Vest Ekofisk and Tommeliten Gamma fields by 2028. The move is framed as a...
Gas Prices Are Spiking. So Why Aren’t U.S. Oil Companies Drilling More?
U.S. gasoline prices have surged to around $4.50 a gallon as the Iran‑U.S. standoff blocks the Strait of Hormuz, trapping roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil. The World Bank projects a 24% jump in global energy prices in 2026,...
JSE Gold Shares Surge on Hopes of US-Iran Deal
Gold and silver posted their strongest weekly gains as optimism over a potential US‑Iran peace deal lifted bullion prices. In London, gold climbed to $4,680.20 per ounce, up 3.7%, while silver surged 5.5% to $76.81. The news also sent the...
Context Call: May 2026 (Video)
In this second Context Call, the host reviews the ongoing Hormuz Strait closure and its ripple effects on the global oil market, noting a recent flare‑up of violence but no immediate shift in supply fundamentals. Brent crude remains anchored around...
Ongoing Hormuz Closure Could Expand Bunker Wait Times Globally: Analyst
The Strait of Hormuz has remained effectively closed since the Middle East war began on Feb. 28, prompting S&P Global analysts to warn that a month‑long shutdown could push two‑week bunker fuel lead times in Asia to a global two‑week norm. Asian...
Oil and Gas Prices Fall Sharply, Driven by Hopes of Strait of Hormuz Reopening – as It Happened
Oil and gas prices plunged on Tuesday as optimism grew that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen and a U.S.–Iran peace memo might be near. Brent crude fell 11% to $97.48 a barrel, its lowest level since April 22, while U.S....
Fastmarkets to Discontinue Three European Seamless and Welded Tube and Pipe Prices
Fastmarkets announced it will discontinue three European tube and pipe price indices—MB-STE-0807, MB-STE-0808, and MB-STE-0809—after receiving no market feedback during its consultation. The firm initially proposed dropping eight prices across Europe and India but will retain five after stakeholder input,...
Diesel and Gasoline Prices Surge Across U.S. Regions Amid Global Supply Concerns
U.S. diesel and gasoline prices jumped this week as the Middle East conflict tightened global oil supplies. The national on‑highway diesel average rose 29 cents to $5.64 per gallon, while gasoline climbed 33 cents to $4.45 per gallon, according to...
Nickel Spot Price Jumps 17% After Indonesia Cuts Production Quotas
Nickel’s spot price surged 17% in the first quarter of 2026 after the Indonesian government announced a 30% cut in ore production and a reduction in 2026 export quotas. The World Bank attributes the jump to the policy shift, which...
UK Bitumen Imports Increase in 1Q
UK bitumen imports rose 18% year‑on‑year to 225,000 t in Q1, despite a sharp spike in crude and bitumen prices after the US‑Iran war began on 28 February. Fixed‑price term contracts secured before the conflict helped offset higher input costs, keeping domestic...
Saudi Aramco Trims Arab Light Premium by $4 to $15.50 for June
Saudi Aramco reduced the official selling price of Arab Light crude for Asian buyers by $4 a barrel, bringing the June premium to $15.50 over regional benchmarks. The move follows a record‑high premium in May and reflects ongoing war‑driven supply...
Economic Recovery Lifts German Diesel Demand in 2025
German diesel consumption rose in 2025, marking the first increase in six years and signaling a tentative rebound in industrial activity after two years of recession. The economy grew 0.2% in 2025, ending a downturn that saw GDP contract by...
Be Careful: Don’t Fall for the US-Iran Deal Hype — Brent Drops Below $100
Oil markets tumbled as optimism grew around a possible US‑Iran cease‑fire. The United States said it expects Iran to answer a one‑page memorandum of understanding within 48 hours, which could lift Strait of Hormuz restrictions. Brent crude briefly slipped below...
India's NMDC Raises Iron Ore Prices in May
India's state‑run miner NMDC increased its iron‑ore prices for the fourth month in May, setting the 10‑40 mm Baila 65.5% lump ore at Rs 5,500 per tonne (about $58) and 64% Baila fines at Rs 4,700 per tonne. Both grades rose Rs 200 per...
UAE's Fujairah Bunker Sales Rebound in April
Marine fuel sales at Fujairah, the world’s fourth‑largest bunkering hub, rebounded in April, climbing to 57,000 t (910 t/d) from a March low of 29,000 t (460 t/d). Very‑low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) volumes rose to 37,000 t, while high‑sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) increased to...
Gasoline Costs 50% More Than It Did Before the Iran War
U.S. regular gasoline surged to an average $4.48 per gallon on May 5, a 50% increase since the Iran war began. The spike follows a 31‑cent weekly rise driven by crude oil climbing to $112 a barrel as the Strait of...
Potential Iran Deal Pushes Oil Lower, Energy Stocks Slide
🚨 Oil & Energy Selloff 🚨 Energy names getting hit hard this morning as geopolitics shift fast 👀 🛢️ Oil & Energy Stocks: -8.05% Axios reporting the US and Iran are nearing a 14-point framework to end the conflict — triggering a potential...
Copper Supply Lags Demand Amid Permitting Delays, Lower Grades, Policy Risks
At the FT Commodities Global Summit on April 22, industry executives warned that copper supply is falling behind demand due to permitting delays, higher capital costs, lower ore grades and policy uncertainty. Spot copper concentrate treatment charges slipped to a...
Cal‑Maine Poised for Upside as Egg Prices Dip
Egg prices are in a down-cycle, but market leader Cal-Maine (CALM) might be a buy. Strong balance sheet, low costs, and value-added eggs could fuel the next up-cycle. 💰🥚 EggStocks
Gas Surge Reinforces K‑Shape: Rich Forget, Poor Relive 2022
Required reading from @talmonsmith on the K-Shaped consequences of the latest surge in gas prices. While those at the top have long forgotten 2022, for those at the bottom, it's deja vu all over again.
Ethanol Production Slows, Stocks Hit Record Levels
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. ethanol production was relatively muted for a third straight week, though still in line with seasonal trends. Despite lighter output, ethanol stocks reached a May 1 record, surpassing pandemic-elevated 2020 levels. Bit of a slip in demand. https://t.co/rGJ2JTZhLk
Silver Poised Above 20‑day MA, Eyeing $81.35
$Silver - If nothing dramatic happens by the close it will close above the 20 day MA and invalidate further downside(at least in the short term). The next upside target is the 1st monthly resistance at 81.35 which coincides with...
US Refiners Ramp up Jet Fuel to Meet Shortage
CHART OF THE DAY: US refiners are going gangbusters trying to solve the global jet-fuel shortage (and to cash in record high margins). The chart shows seasonal jet-fuel output from 2000-to-date (2026 is top line in blue). The bottom outliers are...
24/7 Solar Beats Coal and Gas Costs Globally
24/7 solar+storage is already here: China $30/MWh, Brazil $65, Oman $69. By 2030, India, South Africa, and Spain will all be near $50 - all way cheaper than new coal ($70 to $85/MWh) and new gas ($100+/MWh) The Fire Age is...
US Crude Exports Plunge 1.7 MMbpd, Volatility Persists
EIA weekly data showing a sharp 1.7 MMbpd pullback in crude exports for the week (to still very high levels). That's a ~12 MMbbl weekly swing in the call on US stocks. ⚠️ Export data is especially volatile. https://t.co/pPxWDqXQ4w
Iran's Sole Leverage: Oil Price Spikes, Trump Counters
Thanks to @HolmanJenkins from the @WSJ for including me in this piece. Iran's only weapon in this standoff is to spike oil prices. The Trump administration has done a good job neutralizing this by periodically reminding markets oil prices can...
China's Domestic Coal Shields It From Energy Price Shocks
Because of its heavy reliance on domestically-mined coal, China is far less vulnerable to global energy price shocks than the EU. This and more featured in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/XIXIgRqQmP
US Gasoline Imports Hit Record Lows, Watch Weekly Data
In addition to inventories and booming exports, be sure to keep an eye on weekly import estimates in today's EIA weekly data release. Overall US petroleum imports have been running pretty low, and have been especially low for gasoline. https://t.co/qoDnrbjwLO
Oil Prices Must Drop Before 10:30 Am EIA Draw
They forgot “need to get oil prices down before 10:30am when the EIA announces another 20 million bbl draw
Silver Hits Six‑year Low with Weakest 40‑day Decline.
silver bullion had it's weakest 40-day % change in 6-years, cooling off after the strong rally into Jan '26... rally time? https://t.co/1Uq4DeIlHO
Oil Eyes Recovery Before Market Opens in 30 Minutes
Market opens in less than 30 minutes…can oil claw back the losses from the 5am drop?
EIA Weekly Data Release Sparks Unprecedented Calendar Block
Can't remember the last time I was this excited for a EIA weekly data release. Legit blocked my calendar. https://t.co/CrokkiCkKd
Gold's Weakest 40‑Day Move Sparks Dip Buyers
gold bullion with its weakest rate of change in the past 40-days (-11.1%) over the last 4-years... who's buying the dip? https://t.co/v3wUBnFBft
Beef Prices Stay High for RBI Until 2027
Beef costs are not expected to ease until "closer to 2027," per Burger King owner RBI. BK's beef costs rose 20% last year. $QSR
Nationwide Gas Prices Surpass $4, Avg $4.50
Gas prices now are above $4 per gallon in all 50 states, with the average topping $4.50 https://t.co/ctzY2rZFdb
US‑Iran Deal Hype Fades as Brent Slides Below $100
Be Careful: Don’t Fall for the US-Iran Deal Hype — Brent Drops Below $100 https://t.co/1xmqJkWtPm
Gold Climbs 3% on War Hopes and Bull Market Momentum
Gold up 3% on hopes of an end to the war. 🤔 Or gold up 3% as it is still in a secular bull market (and working off the January blow off top) and those tend to go higher....
Brent Peaks, Then Drops $30 Within a Week
Brent topped on the exact day of this cover, and is down $30 in less than a week. https://t.co/3lAlU2QZRA