Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
EDAM Is ‘Solid and Stable’ so Far, Says CAISO
The California Independent System Operator’s Extended Day‑Ahead Market (EDAM) launched on Friday and is operating smoothly, with prices across all commodities staying within expected ranges. Transfer volumes hit 600 MW, and all market areas passed 100% of the resource sufficiency test. Early data showed price convergence of $0.25/MWh across hubs before diverging in the evening ramp, highlighting the market’s co‑optimization. CAISO officials emphasized the growing role of battery storage and announced new participants in the Western Energy Imbalance Market, extending the market footprint to 24 balancing authorities.
Citi Sees Oil ‘Moving Around Like Crazy’ in Hope-and-Fear Dance
Citigroup’s global head of commodities research Max Layton warned that oil prices will remain wildly volatile until a clear outcome emerges from the ongoing US‑Iran conflict. He highlighted the difficulty of predicting Iran’s actions under its new leadership, saying markets...
Gold Fields Lists 'Significant’ Price Increases Caused by US-Iran War
Gold Fields reported a sharp rise in mining costs during Q1 2026, with all‑in sustaining costs (AISC) up 13% to $1,829 per ounce and all‑in costs (AIC) up 10% to $2,046 per ounce. The increases stem from higher diesel, explosive,...
Marinakis Gas Carrier Firm CCEC Speeds up Newbuild Deliveries in Market Boom
Capital Clean Energy Carriers (CCEC), owned by Evangelos Marinakis, announced it will accelerate the delivery of three of its nine LNG carriers. The firm arranged with Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries to receive the vessels ahead of schedule. This move aims...
If The World Ran Out Of Gas, What Would You Drive?
Jalopnik asks readers to imagine a world without gasoline as U.S. pump prices hit $4.53 per gallon amid geopolitical tension with Iran. The article highlights how soaring fuel costs are pushing drivers to consider electric vehicles, conversions, or alternative transport...
Oil Falls Below $100 on Peace Deal Hopes
Oil prices slumped on Thursday, with Brent crude falling 4.3% to $96.96 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropping 4.7% to $90.64. The decline pushed Brent below the psychologically important $100 threshold, driven by fresh optimism that a U.S.-Iran...
Gold Hits $4,645, Silver Surges 5.5% as Dollar Weakens to 98.30
Traders saw spot gold rise to $4,645 and silver climb over 5.5% to $77 after the U.S. dollar index fell to 98.30. The rally is underpinned by technical breakouts and a broader shift in risk sentiment, prompting fresh buying in...
Glencore Q1 Shows African Copper Cathode Up 68% as Cobalt Falls 40% Amid DRC Quota
Glencore reported a 68% year‑on‑year rise in copper cathode from its Democratic Republic of Congo assets to 67,900 tonnes, while cobalt output fell roughly 40% to 5,100 tonnes. The shift reflects the DRC’s new cobalt export quota and a strategic...
Airlines Are Grappling with Dwindling Supplies of Jet Fuel
Airlines are confronting a sharp decline in jet‑fuel availability after the near‑total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for both crude oil and refined products. The blockage has halted the export of Gulf‑sourced jet fuel, driving prices...
Poland Keeps Rate at 3.75% as Iran War Fuels Energy‑Price Inflation
Poland's Monetary Policy Council left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% for a second consecutive month, matching analysts' expectations. The decision was driven by a resurgence of domestic inflation as the Iran war pushes energy prices higher, while the...
European Wheat Futures Dip Below €190/T as Weather Improves and Profit‑Taking Hits Market
European wheat futures slipped below €190 per tonne on Tuesday, driven by profit‑taking and more favourable weather across the continent. The price drop comes even as U.S. hard‑red‑winter wheat faces drought‑related stress, highlighting a split between European supply comfort and...
Global LPG Conversations: From Shock to Softness: Why the European Propane Market Eased
In this episode, Argus editors Peter Wilton and Efkaris Skourou examine why European propane prices have softened despite a global supply shock caused by the war in Ukraine. They explain that steady U.S. LPG imports into Northwest Europe, driven by...
Geopolitical Tensions Push Oil Trading Higher in Q1, easyMarkets Reports
Geopolitical tensions in early 2026 drove a sharp rise in crude‑oil trading on easyMarkets, making oil one of the fastest‑growing assets despite overall volume moderation after a hectic 2025. Gold stayed the platform’s most traded instrument, though activity fell about...
Oil Prices Slide on Hopes for Renewed U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
Oil prices fell on Thursday after President Trump announced that the United States had held “very good talks” with Iran, reviving hopes for renewed peace negotiations. The market reaction lifted U.S. equities while gasoline prices continued to rise, with regional...
![[COPY] Does the Market Need OPEC/OPEC+?](/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=75,format=auto,fit=cover/https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!U0yT!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff871be01-f761-4d21-9cd5-ffe117586429_188x188.png)
[COPY] Does the Market Need OPEC/OPEC+?
The article questions OPEC’s relevance after the United Arab Emirates left the cartel, arguing that OPEC’s governance differs from classic commodity cartels. It highlights the oil sector’s capital‑intensive nature, where sunk costs dominate and operating expenses are low. During prolonged...
Diesel Prices Squeeze US Farmers ‘Barely Getting by’ Amid Tariffs and Drought
U.S. farmers are confronting a sharp diesel price jump to about $5 a gallon as the war with Iran disrupts fuel markets, coinciding with the critical spring planting window. The surge follows a $34.6 bn loss from recent tariff retaliation, squeezing...
Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Fertilizer Scarcity Will Affect Next Harvests and Food Supplies, FAO Warns
The FAO warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are creating a global fertilizer shortage that will depress crop yields and tighten food supplies in the latter half of 2026 and into 2027. Director‑General QU Dongyu told the MED9++...
“Tomato Prices This Winter Were Among the Highest I’ve Seen in My 25-Year Career”
Tomato prices in winter hit a 25‑year high, with beef tomatoes topping €3 ($3.24) amid supply problems in Spain. Other vegetables show mixed trends: aubergines have fallen to about €0.70 ($0.76), cucumbers are plentiful, and green peppers trade at €2...
U.S. Electricity Prices Keep Rising
U.S. electricity prices climbed 6.7% year‑over‑year in April 2026, with the 12‑month trailing average up 6.5% and regional spikes of 21%‑25% in New Jersey and Washington, D.C. The rise mirrors a five‑year trend driven largely by natural‑gas fuel costs. Meanwhile, political opposition...
Oil Prices Fall Below $100 as U.S.-Iran Tensions Keep Traders Focused on Strait of Hormuz Risks
Oil prices slipped below the $100 mark on Thursday as geopolitical risk in the Middle East resurfaced. Brent crude fell 1.85% to $99.40 a barrel while U.S. WTI rose to $93.21, reflecting mixed market reactions. President Donald Trump warned that...
South African Miners Pivot to Atlantic Diesel Supplies
South African mining firms are redirecting diesel purchases from the Middle East to suppliers in the United States and Brazil. The shift follows a sharp rise in diesel prices linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which now...
THE SUPPLY SIDE OF GOLD IS BROKEN: 15 Years of Flat Production, the Historic Discovery Drought, the M&A Illusion &...
Gold’s supply side has stalled for 15 years, with annual mine output essentially flat despite prices soaring from under $1,000 to over $4,500 per ounce. The industry recorded zero major discoveries (2 million‑plus ounces) in both 2023 and 2024, a historic...
WTI Crude Peaks Near $120; Bonds, Grains Stabilize
Peak Inklings: $100 Crude, 5% T-Bonds, $5 Corn and Gas, $12 Soy Roughly $120 a barrel in WTI crude oil may be reaching its peak potential, akin to $147 in 2008 and $130 in 2022. Staying below $100 would reinforce the...
Electricity Prices Went Up In April — But Not Because of Iran
Electricity prices in the United States rose 6.7% in April 2026 compared with the same month a year earlier, and the 12‑month trailing average climbed 6.5%. The increase follows a five‑year pattern of steady growth driven chiefly by natural‑gas fuel...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Global markets opened largely red, mirroring yesterday's sell‑off, though losses were milder. Soy meal was the sole commodity posting gains, while futures rose on a war‑premium boost as geopolitical tensions eased. Energy prices corrected from recent peaks, and equity indices...
Crude Oil Lower-High Pattern Holds, Fueled by US Stocks
Crude Oil Pump-Then-Dump Pattern Appears Intact The crude oil pattern of lower highs since 2008 is being tested in 2026 and looks intact. My graphic shows a top potential determinant for maintaining the lower-lows trend -- the lofty US stock market. Full...
Iran War Halts Global Rate Cuts, Fuels Inflation and Slashes India's Growth
Major central banks have frozen interest‑rate cuts as the Iran war pushes oil prices higher, while the U.S. Federal Reserve warns of a lingering inflation shock. S&P Global responded by trimming India's FY27 growth outlook to 6.6%, underscoring the war’s...
Gold Prices Rally As Middle East Tensions Ease
Gold prices jumped about 1% on Thursday, with spot gold reaching $4,735.74 an ounce and June futures climbing to $4,742.64. The rally was driven by optimism around a potential U.S.–Iran peace deal and easing Middle East tensions, which also softened...
U.S. Diesel Stocks Hit 20-Year Low Amid Hormuz Closure
U.S. DISTILLATE STOCKS have fallen to the lowest for the time of year for more two decades as closure of the Strait of Hormuz creates a worldwide shortage of diesel and similar fuels. Since the war began, distillate inventories have...
US‑Iran Conflict Affects 20% LNG, Just 3% of Global Gas
Shell CEO Wael Sawan: "While 20% of the world's LNG is impacted [by US-Iran war], that equals to only 3% of the world's natural gas." (An important point that's often overlooked)
Gas Prices Keep Rising, but Do Big Oil Companies Plan to Drill More? Not so Far
Oil majors such as Chevron, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips are keeping production plans steady despite Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel after the Iran‑Hormuz conflict disrupted supplies. Executives cite uncertainty over the war’s duration and a disciplined capital strategy that...
Rising Gas Prices Make Tesla $2k Cheaper Annually
Markets are Speaking Gasoline commodity since January: +100% This is what higher gas prices do to EV demand. It's now almost $2000 cheaper to drive a Tesla than a gasoline-powered car per year. cc @elonmusk https://t.co/sx9JHvByFa
US Oil Inventories Drop 7.1 MMb, Crude Leads Decline
US comparative inventory fell 7.1 mmb for the week ending May 1 Crude oil and all refined products decreased except residual and distillate #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/ywcLKBDgl6
Fertiliser Shortages to Have Dramatic Effect on Food Prices, Says Duke of Westminster’s Firm
Grosvenor Group, the Duke of Westminster’s property and farming conglomerate, warns that fertilizer shortages triggered by the Iran‑related closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed UK fertilizer costs up 50‑70% and could spark a dramatic rise in global food...
Iran's Oil Restrictions Threaten Prices, Risk War
This is an excellent point. Iran is disincentivized to allow all traffic because it can push up oil prices. This cannot be allowed. Actual wars have been fought over issues like this.
India’s Heavy Sour Crude Imports at 50% of Capacity
🇮🇳Key context: India’s current heavy sour crude imports are running at roughly half of its processing capacity.
API Weekly Report Shows Draws in Crude, Distillate, Gasoline
The American Petroleum Institute Weekly Statistical Bulletin is out showing draws against crude stocks, distillate and gasoline stocks. https://t.co/fp4XONEkmr
US Corn Exports Beat Averages; Soybeans Hit Year Low
🇺🇸U.S. corn export sales last week were modest vs expectations but well above weekly averages. Soybean sales were a marketing year low. Old-crop wheat sales missed, but new crop (188kt) met estimates of between 0-250kt. https://t.co/sGX9kRW1Cn
Jan ’27 Gas Futures Predict $3.30 Pump Price
Jan '27 gasoline futures are a dollar below the prompt... implying a AAA average pump price near $3.30 by late this year https://t.co/eTlTFWg6h2
Silver ETF Surges 11% in Two Days, Matching GDX
$SLV silver ETF +11% last two days.. best since February... simillar gain in $GDX https://t.co/sUSuHwO65U
Beef Price Surge Hits McDonald's Profits in Europe, US
Beef inflation is ore pronounced in Europe but is putting pressure on McDonald's franchisee profitability in the U.S., too. $MCD
Iran Conflict Disrupts Global Fertilizer Supply, Hits US
The Iran war is already having major repercussions on fertilizer supply, even in the US! Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/p0abfkJwEY
Discussing Oil, Iran, and Hormuz Tensions on Bloomberg Radio
Well, what is going on with #oil? #Iran? #StraitofHormuz? I'll be on @BloombergRadio to discuss in a few minutes. #oott @ACGlobalEnergy https://t.co/2nAmjfl1Yf
US Gas Prices Surge 53% to 30‑Year High
Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.56 per gallon, their highest level since July 2022. The 53% spike over the last 10 weeks ($2.98/gallon to $4.56/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years. https://t.co/TTvJBJvcVF
Oil Futures Drop Reflect Peace‑Deal Odds, Not Manipulation
Falling futures prices don't mean the paper market is manipulated. All the supply shortfall numbers at this point are well known. Markets are trading the length of the shortfall. Any headline that raises odds of a peace deal naturally pulls...
Shippers Brace for Rising B
Maersk: Cost of bunker fuel. Supply and price. Are shippers ready as Strait of Hormuz remains blocked?
WTI Oil Peaks in May, June, December; Dips March, August
Oil (WTI) -- Months Annually - 10 yr average Seasonality Best May +7.6% June +4.4% Dec +3.1% Worst Mar -2.8% Aug -2.4% Nov -2.2% Bloomberg "SEAG" Function.
India Hikes LPG Price 48% Amid Middle East Conflict
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India just hiked the price of the 19kg commercial LPG cylinder by ₹993. That’s a STAGGERING jump of almost 48% since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. RESTAURANTS AND CATERERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP...
Cocoa Prices Surge 38% Monthly, Signaling Quad2 Inflation
Cocoa inflating more than +9% in a day to +38% in a month = #Quad2 Inflation Accelerating https://t.co/v93q9RpLgl
Shell's Q1 Profits Jump as Iran War Lifts Prices
Shell says its profits surged in the first quarter as the Iran war drove oil and gas prices higher https://t.co/oiET1zMQ1V