Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
The Closer – Fertilizer, Stable Sentiment, Expectations Up – 5/7/26
Fertilizer prices are beginning to moderate after a wave of strong first‑quarter earnings from leading producers. The sector’s earnings beat expectations, with many companies reporting double‑digit revenue growth. Meanwhile, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations shows one‑year inflation expectations at 3.64%, a multi‑year peak. Despite these dynamics, overall market sentiment remains stable and not overly bullish.
California Has Four to Six Weeks of Gasoline Left
The California Energy Commission reported that the state’s gasoline and diesel inventories are sufficient for four to six weeks of normal consumption. The data comes as the final tanker of crude oil from the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran shut...
WTI Crude Slides Near $97.50 as Bears Target 38.2% Fibonacci Break
West Texas Intermediate fell to the mid‑$97s on Wednesday, breaching the 200‑hour SMA and prompting bearish traders to watch the 38.2% Fibonacci support at $96.40. Momentum indicators remain negative, and political news on a potential US‑Iran ceasefire adds to the...
Oil Firms Can Lose Money Even at $100 per Barrel
How Oil Companies Lose Money at $100 Per Barrel Instead of massive profits, some oil companies even face bankruptcy. Energy economist Ed Hirs explains. https://youtu.be/tkY-3oUHXAY
World Bank Warns 24% Energy Price Jump in 2026 as Geopolitical Shocks Widen
The World Bank’s new Commodity Markets Outlook warns that heightened geopolitical risk will push global energy prices up 24% in 2026, far exceeding past oil‑supply shocks. The forecast follows the Middle‑East war’s impact on oil output and shipping, signaling broader...
Oil Price Plunge on Iran‑Peace Hopes Sparks Broad U.S. Stock Rally
Optimism that Washington and Tehran are nearing a tanker‑deal drove Brent crude 3.8% lower to $97.38 a barrel, prompting the Dow Jones up 59 points, the S&P 500 0.1% and the Nasdaq 0.2% on May 7. Strong earnings from DoorDash, Datadog...
LME Aluminium Gains as SHFE Closes for Labour Day, Prices Up 0.9%
London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium climbed to $3,528.5 per tonne, up 0.87% on May 5, while Shanghai Futures (SHFE) remained closed for China’s Labour Day holiday. The divergence reflects bullish global macro factors and weak domestic demand in China.
AMERICA'S BIGGEST EXPORT IS NOW GOLD FOR 5 STRIAGHT MONTHS: The Record Bullion Drain to China, the 1971 Parallel, and...
U.S. gold has become the nation’s top export for five straight months, outpacing oil, pharmaceuticals and aerospace. The bulk of the bullion is routed through Swiss refineries and ends up in Chinese vaults, reflecting Beijing’s push for hard assets in...
Canada Leads Way Lower as Mild Forecasts Weigh on Spot Natural Gas Prices
Spot natural gas prices in Canada fell sharply this week as milder-than-expected temperature forecasts reduced demand outlooks. The Henry Hub‑linked Canadian price slipped to its lowest level in six months, trading around C$2.10 per MMBtu (≈US$1.55). Analysts attribute the drop...
Protein Powder Shortage Threatens America’s Biggest Food Craze
The U.S. protein market is facing a severe whey powder shortage as demand for protein‑fortified foods surges. Prices for standard whey have risen more than 50% since January, with 80% concentrate topping $11 per pound and isolates holding firm in...
Potential for ‘Super El Niño,’ Soaring LNG Demand Lift US Forward Natural Gas Prices
Forward natural gas prices in the United States are firming as forecasts of a strong El Niño raise expectations of record‑high temperatures. At the same time, growing global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is bolstering long‑term consumption outlooks, especially in...
Narrow Wall Street Rally Masks Deepening Energy Scarcity
Wall Street rebound driven by smallest number of stocks on record via Financial Times. Narrow gains are not good. My friends who are closest to the energy markets are completely flummoxed by the drop in futures prices for WTI and...
Iran Reduces Oil Production by 400,000 Bpd, Further Cut Back Expected
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Iran has already cut oil output by about 400,000 barrels per day and may trim it further as domestic storage fills. A naval blockade has sharply reduced Iranian crude exports, leaving tankers stranded and...
Summer Airfares Set to Surge as Jet Fuel Shortage Grips Market
Jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the Iran‑related conflict began, pushing U.S. Gulf Coast benchmarks above $330 per gallon—about 50% higher than pre‑war levels. The surge has forced major airlines such as Delta and American to record $2‑$4 billion...
Oil Shock Far From Over: Energy Giants Warn Global Fuel Supplies May Stay Tight for Months After Iran Deal
Oil supplies will continue to tighten in the coming weeks even if a U.S.-Iran peace deal ends the conflict, because it will take weeks for shipments to resume from the Gulf and for inventories to rebuild. Executives from TotalEnergies, Equinor...
What the Jet Fuel Crisis Means for Your Summer Flights and Travel Plans
Canadian summer air travel faces unprecedented turbulence as a U.S. travel boycott and a global jet‑fuel crisis converge. Airlines have slashed U.S. capacity—Air Transat will end all U.S. flights by June—while expanding domestic routes to capture displaced demand. Jet‑fuel prices...
Crude Oil Moving Off of Low Levels and Back Toward the Next Target at the $95 Area
Crude oil bounced from session lows near $89.85 after finding support above $88.70, stabilizing the market as optimism around Iran negotiations faded. The rebound peaked at $97.34, but prices settled lower, with traders eyeing the $95 resistance – the 50%...
IEA Chief Warns Iran War Could Spark the Biggest Energy Crisis Ever
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that the war in Iran and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger the largest energy crisis in history. Speaking with Canada’s Energy Minister Tim Hodgson, Birol said the...
Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Jump Over $300 per Ton as Iran Conflict Disrupts Supply
U.S. nitrogen fertilizer prices have surged since the Iran‑U.S.-Israel war began on Feb. 28, 2026, with anhydrous ammonia climbing from $828 to $1,123 per ton and 28% nitrogen solution rising 25% to $543 per ton. The spike adds more than $20...
‘Mideast War, El Niño May Weigh on Coconut Industry’
The Philippines’ coconut sector faces a perfect storm as the Middle East war forces the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, inflating ocean freight and war‑risk surcharges. At the same time, a strong El Niño is expected to depress export volumes...
Bernreuter: Daqo Sales Slump Reveals ‘Irrational’ Polysilicon Market Dynamics
Chinese polysilicon giant Daqo New Energy reported an 88.3% plunge in Q1 2026 sales even as output ticked up to 43,402 metric tons, up from 42,181 MT a quarter earlier. The stark mismatch, highlighted by Bernreuter Research head Johannes Bernreuter, signals a market where...
US Corn Gluten Meal and Feed Prices Hold Steady, While DDGS Exports Reach 3-Month High
U.S. corn gluten meal and broader feed prices held steady despite mixed market signals, while grain futures slipped across the board. July corn futures fell to $4.80 per bushel, pressured by rapid planting progress and lower crude oil prices. Dried...
Tightened Supply Chains: Strait of Hormuz & Bitumen Markets
In this episode of The Asphalt Story, Irina, Kayvan, and Oliver discuss how the Strait of Hormuz disruption is tightening bitumen supplies for European and African markets. They explain that reduced crude flows from Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq are...
Q&A: How Global Trade Tensions Are Reshaping Ag Markets
Geopolitical flashpoints—from the Iran‑linked Strait of Hormuz closure to lingering U.S.-China tariff disputes—are reshaping agricultural markets. Fertilizer prices have spiked as the Hormuz bottleneck persists, while U.S. soybean shipments to China plunged 75% year‑over‑year. Export dynamics are shifting, with corn...
Increased Supply and Uneven Demand Keeps Pressure on Bloodmeal Markets
Bloodmeal prices have slumped sharply as abundant supply meets tepid demand. Fastmarkets reports the ruminant bloodmeal FOB Missouri River fell 38% year‑over‑year to $826.79 per short ton in April, while porcine bloodmeal FOB Iowa/Missouri/Nebraska dropped 31% to $917.26 per ton....
Gold Daily Call for May 7th, 2026
Gold is rallying toward the $4,800 per ounce mark, nudging just above its 50‑day moving average of $4,799. The 4‑hour stochastic oscillator signals an overbought condition, suggesting momentum may be peaking. Traders are advised to let existing long positions run...
Nickel Market Ignoring Sherritt Exit, Chinese Consolidation Looms
The market is not pricing in the nickel news of Sherritt leaving Cuba. S has material until June. Can the Cuban's manage the mine? What about the tailings issues? If Canada no longer can process material...
Russia Sells Ruble, Buys Yuan to Curb Appreciation
Since the US-Israeli war on Iran, oil prices have SURGED & so has the value of the Russian ruble. To prevent the ruble from excessive strengthening, Russia is SELLING the ruble & BUYING foreign currency, primarily the Chinese yuan. https://t.co/zThMoq7cun
China’s Weekly Soybean Crush Volume Stable at 1.62 Million Tonnes Ahead of Labor Day Holiday: NFSRDC
China's soybean crushing activity held steady at 1.62 million tonnes in the week to May 1, matching the previous week and remaining above last year’s level. Imported soybean inventories at major crush plants rose to 4.93 million tonnes, while soybean meal and oil...
Brazil Hits Record Soybean Exports, China Takes 69%
🇧🇷Brazil exported 16.7 million metric tons (615 mbu) of soybeans in April, a new all-time record. Brazil exported a record 40 mmt (1.48 bbu) in the first four months of 2026. Top destinations by share: 🇨🇳China 69% 🇪🇺EU 8% 🇹🇷Turkey 4% 🇹🇭Thailand 3% https://t.co/YKBbfHBknk
Unusual, Concentrated Oil Volumes Precede Key Announcements, Says Onyx Founder
Reuters: "Let's stay with the facts. The volumes were highly unusual. They were concentrated. They were ahead of key announcements," said Jorge Montepeque from Onyx Capital Group, who helped design the modern system of setting oil prices at pricing agency...
EU: Airlines Should Pay Passengers for Cancelations Due to Fuel Price Surge
European airlines face a sharp rise in jet‑fuel costs, with prices topping $200 per barrel and Lufthansa alone estimating a $2 billion hit this year. EU Sustainable Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas told the Financial Times that fuel price spikes do not...
Gold Bears Beware: Emerging Positive Pattern Highlighted
A lot of bears on gold it feels like, but @FrankCappelleri noted a potential positive pattern in his note this morning. 🥇 https://t.co/UXOaAOz64J
Oil Shock Persists: Tight Global Fuel Supplies for Months
Oil Shock Far From Over: Energy Giants Warn Global Fuel Supplies May Stay Tight for Months After Iran Deal. And the longer it takes to get a deal? https://t.co/sOpjmIj1ok
LNG Sector Seeing Near-Term ‘Supply Disruption’ Not ‘Demand Destruction’, Excelerate Says
Excelerate Energy, a U.S. floating regasification specialist, says the Middle East conflict is creating a short‑term supply disruption rather than eroding LNG demand. CEO Steven Kobos noted that new LNG projects coming online will expand the need for import and...
Jet Fuel Crisis Exacerbated by Hoarding, Not Supply
✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️ The Global Jet Fuel Crisis: It Would Have Been Mitigated Were It Not for Hoarding Daily Energy Report https://t.co/m1p26knF8S
US Crude Stocks Plunge 8.1M Barrels; Stay Long Oil
During this past week, US crude oil inventories fell by a staggering 8.1 million barrels. STAY LONG OIL. https://t.co/JNDz5oEds3
EDAM Is ‘Solid and Stable’ so Far, Says CAISO
The California Independent System Operator’s Extended Day‑Ahead Market (EDAM) launched on Friday and is operating smoothly, with prices across all commodities staying within expected ranges. Transfer volumes hit 600 MW, and all market areas passed 100% of the resource sufficiency test....
Hormuz Crisis Sparks Oil Shock and Market Outlook
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I'm joined by the one and only @ericnuttall to talk about the ongoing Hormuz crisis oil supply shock, how oil and gas equities are pricing the conflict, and what...
U.S. Urea Imports Soar to Record, Russia Leads Supply
🇺🇸U.S. imports of urea, a nitrogen fertilizer heavily used in farming, hit an all-time high in March 2026. The shipments were valued at $576 million. Q1 2026 imports were up 15% on the year. Top Q1 suppliers by volume: 🇷🇺Russia 30% 🇶🇦Qatar 25% 🇴🇲Oman...
Metals Lean on Stocks While Energy, Grains Revert
Normal autocorrelation in commodities vs. rising dependency. Energy and grains typically go down because they went up. Metals appear highly dependent on stocks to keep going up. https://t.co/ipBg8zbDaq
US Retail Diesel and Gas Prices Near Record Highs
GS: US Retail Diesel and Gasoline Prices Increased to Just $0.2/gal and $0.5/gal Below Their Respective All-Time Highs https://t.co/7rCLdcv6vm
High US Oil Prices Yet Recession Odds Remain Low
So US oil prices are remaining at very lofty levels with inevitable carry over effects on US (and global) GDP...but the probability of a recession has dropped to pre-war lows? Either the economy is less dependent on energy or we...
Oil Shortages Looming: Europe by May, US by July
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on when oil shortages will hit: "Parts of the world like Australia, Philippines, Thailand already are [in a shortage]. Europe will hit tank bottoms sometime in May. In the US it will be...
Commodity Supercycle Begins: Bloomberg Index Up 28%
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has reached over 140 points. The index is now up 28% this year. As I’ve said, "We're entering a commodity supercycle. You want to be long commodities.” https://t.co/up5X1itoJL
Energy Crunch Will Continue Despite Iran Peace Deal, Says Maersk
Maersk Says Energy Crunch to Persist Even If Iran Peace Deal Struck. Not surprising. This extended mess will not fix itself overnite. https://t.co/qJBag33bE9
WTI Plunges 11% as Rumor‑Driven Headlines Swirl
US benchmark crude oil (WTI) is down -11% over the past two days. Since both sides likes to make their rap battle threats on social, they should lay out clearly their terms on social so we can follow along. This market...
US‑Iran Conflict Affects 20% LNG, Just 3% of Global Gas
Shell CEO Wael Sawan: "While 20% of the world's LNG is impacted [by US-Iran war], that equals to only 3% of the world's natural gas." (An important point that's often overlooked)
Rising Gas Prices Make Tesla $2k Cheaper Annually
Markets are Speaking Gasoline commodity since January: +100% This is what higher gas prices do to EV demand. It's now almost $2000 cheaper to drive a Tesla than a gasoline-powered car per year. cc @elonmusk https://t.co/sx9JHvByFa
US Oil Inventories Drop 7.1 MMb, Crude Leads Decline
US comparative inventory fell 7.1 mmb for the week ending May 1 Crude oil and all refined products decreased except residual and distillate #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/ywcLKBDgl6