Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
Ireland launches €250M relief package as heating oil prices double
Heating oil prices in Ireland surged from about $545 to over $1,090 per fill within a month amid the Middle East conflict. The government responded with a €250 million ($273 million) relief package that includes excise cuts and a diesel rebate, though experts say a national energy‑security strategy is still lacking.
Also developing:
By the numbers: Oil majors acquire $164M of Alaska oil leases
The author updates the key precious‑metal charts amid heightened market volatility driven by the Iran‑related oil price surge. Despite a sharp pullback, gold remains in an uptrend, as its 200‑day moving average stays upward‑sloping. The metal has become deeply oversold, a condition that often precedes a bounce, and recent price action suggests the rebound may be starting. The primary technical focus is gold’s support zone between $4,300 and $4,600, formed over the past five months.
Oil prices jumped sharply after the Iran‑Israel conflict entered its fourth week, prompting a sell‑off in European equities. Traders cite higher energy costs and heightened geopolitical risk as the main drivers of the market slide.
Larry Fink: oil could hit $150/bbl — even AFTER a ceasefire — if Iran remains a threat. Brent is already at $112. The tail risk isn't priced. Equities are still trading like this ends cleanly. What does $150 oil do to inflation? To...
Australia faces a deepening petrol crisis as more than 500 service stations have run out of at least one fuel type, driving prices sharply higher. The shortage stems from the war sparked by the US and Israel in Iran and...
Lotta people love to play with Hormuz offset balance math—and boy, oh boy, the numbers I've seen bouncing around... But let's keep it dead simple and focus on pure output: There's now ~10 MMbpd of crude oil production shut-ins confirmed across the...
Russia banked on a windfall after oil prices spiked when the Strait of Hormuz closed and the United States briefly eased sanctions on its crude. The surge lifted Urals prices near Brent, temporarily rescuing a revenue stream that had collapsed...
2026 Pump-Then-Dump Risks in Both Gold and Crude - Gold's big green 2026 annual candle to its Jan. 29 high of $5,595 an ounce risks turning red by year-end -- particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is secured -- with...
The U.S. government issued an executive order invoking the Defense Production Act to accelerate domestic mining and processing of elemental phosphorus, a critical input for glyphosate herbicides. The move seeks to reduce reliance on foreign sources amid global supply concerns.
A West Asia conflict‑driven LPG shortage has hit Uttarakhand, forcing hotels and restaurants to turn to biogas, CNG and other alternatives. Operators cite rising costs and supply gaps, while officials warn the disruption could linger.
Unionized workers at Swift Beef's Greeley, Colorado, plant have entered the third week of a strike that began March 16, demanding higher wages and better health care. JBS USA is operating the facility at limited capacity while shifting production elsewhere,...
Macro: Tadawul -0.13%; financials, real estate & retail lag. Oil jump (Brent $105) and firmer USD drive divergence. Risk: oil volatility, FX swings. Trade: buy energy exporters. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Gas-fired generation will be squeezed by LNG shortfall Global gas-fired electricity generation is likely to be among the hardest hit sectors following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the loss of production as a result of damage to two...
Ukrainian drone strikes on the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust‑Luga and the Kirishi refinery have knocked out roughly half of Russia's oil export capacity, the most severe disruption since the 2022 invasion began. The attacks, combined with recent seizures...
Oil prices broke the $100‑a‑barrel barrier as renewed Iran‑U.S. hostilities forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and threatened the Bab el‑Mandab corridor. The supply squeeze is inflating import bills for emerging‑market economies while boosting revenue for oil exporters.
Larry Kudlow appeared on multiple Fox Business programs on March 27, 2026, warning that escalating Iran tensions could spark volatility in U.S. equities while noting a rally in energy stocks. His commentary set the tone for investors watching the S&P...
The National Stock Exchange of India received SEBI clearance to list Dated Brent (Platts) crude oil futures starting April 13, 2026, under the ticker BRCRUDEOIL. The monthly contracts, running through 2027, aim to give Indian market participants direct exposure to...
Pre-war Strait of Hormuz flow (crude + products): ~20m b/d. My updated flow assumptions: Iran: ~1.5m b/d (SoH) UAE: ~1.0m b/d (Fujairah above pre-war) KSA: ~5.0m b/d (Yanbu above pre-war) Plus ~1.0m b/d (Non-Iranian SoH tankers) Plus >2.0m...
A Filipino farmers’ coalition, Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas, warned on March 29 that soaring fuel prices are pushing farmers and fisherfolk deeper into debt and could trigger a nationwide food crisis. Diesel‑driven irrigation and transport costs have surged, while fertilizer prices...
Taking stock 1 month into oil market madness: The stress is in refined products. Diesel Price topping $8 in California is picture perfect 👌
Indonesia nickel ore quotas may tighten feedstock supply in 2026 without solving oversupply in downstream nickel products. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/indonesia-nickel-ore-quotas-risk.html
The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) will launch Dated Brent Crude Oil (Platts) futures on April 13, 2026, after receiving SEBI approval. The contract will be cash‑settled, with monthly settlement based on the simple average of Platts Dated Brent...
The upside to Japan’s risk aversion – ample petroleum reserves The Yen has weakened against the US$ since the Iran war drove the oil price higher, but so too has the AU$. Japan imports most of its energy needs, so a...
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... Heating Oil: +77% European Natural Gas: +71% Brent Crude Oil: +58% WTI Crude Oil: +51% Urea: +48% Diesel: +44% Sulfur: +43% Gasoline: +42% Fertilizer: +29% Coal: +21% Palm Oil: +14% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7% US Natural Gas: +6%
Costco announced its first standalone gasoline station in Mission Viejo, California, slated for public opening by the end of June, with a second site planned for Honolulu in 2027. The move comes as national gasoline prices edge toward $4 per...
My latest with @davidlin_TV on physical vs. paper oil markets: "The physical markets are trading well above the paper market prices. Eventually, the paper market is going to be MUGGED BY REALITY, & the price of the paper market will be...
2025–26 likely marks the peak plateau for global oil @acidiclemon2 Everything depends on duration A quick resolution could trigger a price-driven rebound (low probability) Longer disruption==> contraction defines the years ahead (high probability) #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
“.. US government officials and Wall Street analysts are starting to consider the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel.” @business https://t.co/jKbSZuzsl7 https://t.co/RvefSmh0vP
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices. That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than...
Gold Price Forecast: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Surges 10% After Crash—Bottom In or Bull Trap? https://t.co/CwnEhFzNtn $XAUUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/NoYtoXTuYs
Oil spiked above $99 as Middle East tensions escalate. This week's jobs and confidence data will show if the economy can handle the shock or if cracks are starting to emerge. 🟢 Open https://t.co/muP4Yrt2q1
Turkey is selling gold to support the lira. Over the past two weeks, the central bank has sold around 58 tons (~$8 billion). At the same time, since 2020, Turkey has been among the top three gold buyers (alongside China and Poland)....
Before the Battle for Hormuz, Europeans were paying about 3x more for nat gas than US consumers. Today, they are paying about 6x. Europe has to drill. Chart below is from my latest piece. https://t.co/pfIpV5UZy3
"More expensive oil is bad for Europe, Japan and Korea, all big importers. It is actually a net benefit to the U.S., as an exporter and the world’s biggest producer." — The Wall Street Journal Russia and the Middle East also benefit.
Diesel: $3.89 → $5.37/gal. Every truck. Every delivery. Every shelf. The inflation pipeline hasn't fully hit yet. Freight costs are the slow burn that shows up 60-90 days later. You haven't felt this yet. You will. $XLE $IYT https://t.co/OaV580UlNv
Correct. In the mid-2000s, FERC was full of applications to build LNG import terminals. In that world, global gas shocks like 2022 and today would cause US prices to spike, but today the U.S. is largely insulated.
Interesting take. Always tough to predict #lithium price. I think a doubling from here in 2026 is rich but not impossible. China’s current supply freak-out is real.
How high will WTI oil get by the end of the year? @kalshi market says $139 https://t.co/d9FiMu2DQS https://t.co/2ac3ey45Us
Generac $GNRC investor day had some pretty frightening commentary on power costs and how it will impact consumer/business budgets Power costs are going to double, more than double in the next decade.
Wheat isn’t tight yet—but the setup is turning, writes @gaurav_kochar Weather stress & weaker global crops are building risk that can reprice fast. #Wheat #Commodities #FoodSecurity #Markets
40% of global helium is offline It's critical for computer chips and there's only a few weeks of inventory https://t.co/NrxRXjRzCl
Australia LNG offline for weeks. Half its exports hit. This market has no buffer left. https://t.co/wV9mseaJW8 #LNG #EnergyCrisis #Oil #Geopolitics
This is the advantage of having the conflict on your home turf and close targets. How does Brent not go above 125 and stay higher for longer if this escalates? https://t.co/gDEQNzeiGJ
Japan is switching naphtha imports from the Middle East to other countries, says Prime Minister Takaichi 🇯🇵 ⛽️ Japan relies on the Mid East for >70% of naphtha imports, and has 20 days of stockpiles Shortages threaten supply of petrochemicals, plastics,...
I'm starting a new weekly video every Saturday morning on markets and macro. The first episode was yesterday. I discussed why upside to oil is limited even if we embargo Iranian oil. Brent at $115 already prices significant disruption. You...
Smart take from @HolaPrimeTrade on the Hormuz situation 🎯 When key chokepoints get threatened, commodity traders need to be ready. Oil volatility = opportunity for those positioned right. Check https://t.co/pKoy2KGz8x for firms with the best energy trading conditions 🛢️⚡
⭕️For now, whatever your estimates of global oil consumption growth for 2026, subtract about 300 kb/d from it. This number will change as we move forward.
A recurrent theme since war began is that central banks are selling gold. That's mostly not true, but there is one central bank that did. Turkey's gold holdings have fallen 50 tons in recent weeks. But Turkey is an outlier...
As the outbreak of a regional war disrupts global energy markets for the second time in four years, oil & gas importing countries will be motivated to find alternatives; coal, nuclear, renewables and EVs alike, as @bradplumer & Rebecca Elliott...
Latest instalment in the “Miliband is a moron” series Britain’s gas imports to be cut despite energy security threat https://t.co/EsJkZMM8LL
