Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Shell Posts $6.9B Q1 Profit on Iran War Oil Spike, Raises Dividend 5%
Shell Plc reported adjusted first‑quarter earnings of $6.92 bn, far above the $6.1 bn consensus, driven by soaring oil prices after the Iran‑U.S. conflict. The super‑major also lifted its dividend by 5% to $0.3906 per share while trimming its quarterly share‑buyback to $3 bn.
Explained: What Is the New ‘NACHO’ Trade, and How Is It Different From ‘TACO’
Wall Street has shifted its meme‑driven shorthand from “TACO” to “NACHO,” standing for “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.” The new term emerged in late April as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, throttling more than 20% of daily global oil...
European Stocks Slip as US‑Iran Tensions Push Markets Lower
European equities fell on Friday as fresh U.S.-Iran clashes in the Strait of Hormuz dampened risk appetite. The slide was compounded by early UK election results that battered Prime Minister Keir Starer's Labour Party and lifted Nigel Farage's Reform U.K....
Turkey Keeps Economic Course Amid Middle‑East Conflict, Warns Inflation Risks
Turkey's Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek told a summit in Istanbul that the Middle‑East war will not change the country's economic roadmap. He warned that inflation could stray from targets, but pledged to keep fiscal discipline and a tight...
Middle East Crisis: FAO Sounds Warning over Fertiliser Supplies
FAO Director‑General Qu Dongyu warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are creating a fertilizer shortage that will depress crop yields from late 2024 through 2027. The corridor handles 20‑45% of global agri‑input exports, and delays force farmers to...
Iran War Slashes Hormuz Traffic, Sends U.S. Gas Prices 50% Higher
Iran’s war with Israel and the United States has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, collapsing tanker movements by more than 80% and driving U.S. gasoline prices up 50% to $4.48 a gallon. The disruption threatens to remove over 600 million...
DOJ, CFTC Probe $2.6 B of Oil Futures Trades Tied to Iran Announcements
The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are investigating more than $2.6 billion in oil futures positions that were entered minutes before major Iran‑related announcements by President Trump and Iranian officials. Regulators say the timing suggests possible misuse...
What the UAE’s OPEC Exit Means for the Global Energy Market
The United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC, effective May 1, ending a five‑decade affiliation. The move reflects a decade‑long strategic pivot toward economic diversification and reduced reliance on hydrocarbon revenues. Abu Dhabi’s broader vision includes expanding non‑energy sectors and...
Ships at L.A.'s Ports Face a Fuel Shock That's Shaking the Economy
Shipping fuel costs at Los Angeles and Long Beach ports have surged, with very low‑sulfur bunker prices jumping nearly 88% to $1,080 per metric ton since the Iran‑related conflict began. The spike has pushed fuel to about 25% of a...
Gold Gains As Dollar Dips Ahead Of Jobs Report
Gold prices climbed above $4,700 an ounce on Friday as the dollar index lingered around the 98 level, reflecting a softer greenback ahead of the U.S. non‑farm payrolls and upcoming CPI data. Spot gold jumped 0.7% to $4,721 per ounce,...
Is the Silver Bull Back?
Silver futures on the COMEX experienced a rapid 13.7% rally this week, climbing from $72.21 to $82.12. At the same time, open interest fell to levels not seen in decades, signaling a near‑absence of speculative buyers. The combination of soaring...
Fastmarkets Clarifies Inclusion of Government-Set Benchmark Pricing in Indonesia Nickel Ore Assessment
Fastmarkets clarified its pricing methodology for Indonesian nickel ore after the government revised the HPM benchmark formula. The new decree, effective April 15, raised the corrective factor for 1.6% nickel ore to 30%, added cobalt, iron and chromium, and switched...
Brent Oil Price Futures Understating Physical Market Stress
Analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, warn that Brent futures are masking acute physical‑market stress. The Dated Brent contract, which reflects prompt‑delivery crude, has surged above $130 per barrel, far outpacing the front‑month futures hovering near $98. A widening...
Food Prices Rise to Highest in Three Years on Iran War Costs
Global food‑commodity prices hit their highest level in over three years, with the UN food index rising 1.6% in April. The surge is driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking diesel and fertilizer supplies....
IEA Chief, Canada Leaders Address Oil Market Turmoil Tied to Iran Conflict
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and senior officials in Ottawa to address oil market turmoil linked to the Iran‑related conflict. The discussions centered on disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and...
Oil Liquidity Collapses as Traders Retreat Amid Iran Conflict Volatility
Liquidity in global oil markets has sharply thinned as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz push traders to the sidelines, Bloomberg reports. Brent futures open interest fell to its lowest level since August, reflecting a...
China Curbs Demand as US Supply Stalls, Reshaping Oil Market
Supply and demand determine the oil price. If the Americans can't boost supply to keep prices low, then the Chinese know how to dampen demand. Superb insights in here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-05-08/iran-war-china-s-invisible-hand-is-rebalancing-the-oil-market
EU Russian Arctic LNG Imports Hit $4.4bn Record Despite Sanctions Measures
EU imports of Russian Arctic Yamal LNG surged to a record 6.69 million metric tonnes in the first four months of 2026, a 17.2% increase from a year earlier. At current Dutch TTF prices, European buyers paid roughly $4.4 billion for the...
Europe’s Negative Electricity Price Hours Double in Q1 Amid Renewables Surpluses, Market Imbalances
EU‑27 day‑ahead power markets recorded 1,223 negative‑price hours in Q1 2026, more than double the 593 hours logged in Q1 2025. The surge was led by Spain (347 hours), Portugal (294 hours) and Greece (138 hours), while Nordic markets returned to zero...
China TOPCon Solar Cell Prices Stabilize as Holiday Lull Slows Trading
China's TOPCon solar cell prices held steady at $0.0486/W in early May, ending a streak of declines. The stability coincides with a week‑long Labor Day holiday that dampened trading activity. Upstream supply dynamics could pressure prices later in Q2 2026...
India Demand Subdued on Higher Prices, China Premiums Hold Firm
Gold demand in India weakened as higher spot prices prompted buyers to delay purchases, pushing April imports toward a 30‑year low of roughly 15 metric tons. Dealers offered discounts of up to $15 per ounce and premiums of $6 per ounce...
Philippines, Vietnam Agree on Fixed-Price Rice Deal Till April 2027
The Philippines and Vietnam have signed a fixed‑price rice trade mechanism delivering 1.5 million metric tons of Dai Thom 8 rice at $450 per ton through April 2027. The agreement was sealed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Prime Minister Le Minh Hung on the sidelines of...
Britain Can’t Afford Another Gas Price Shock – Nuclear Is the Answer, Says MP
Rising gas prices driven by Middle East instability are hitting UK households and businesses, reviving fears of another cost‑of‑living shock. MP Charlotte Nichols argues that accelerating new nuclear capacity is essential for energy security, climate goals, and protecting nature. The...
Dubbo Sale 7 May 2026: Young Cattle, Slaughter Cows Firmer in 6760 Head Yarding
The Dubbo cattle yard on May 7, 2026 featured 6,760 head, dominated by cows and weaner calves, with a modest selection of yearlings and finished steers/heifers. Prices for young cattle rose, with prime vealers and yearlings fetching AUD 380‑461 c/kg (≈ US $2.5‑3.0/kg). Feeder steers and...
Crude Oil Production Growth Prospects in 2027 Bright, Say Analysts
Analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, see a bullish outlook for crude oil production in 2027 despite short‑term supply constraints from the Iran conflict. They cite a favorable 2026 base effect, the potential unwinding of OPEC‑plus cuts totalling up...
Fastmarkets Proposes to Raise Frequency of Normalization Coefficient for Daily Iron Ore Indices: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets has proposed moving the normalization coefficient for its Iron ore 61% Fe fines and 62% Fe fines CFR Qingdao indices from a monthly to a daily update cycle. The change is intended to better mirror rapid intra‑month price movements...
China's Oil Imports Drop, Re‑exports Surge, Demand Stalls
China is importing less oil & re-exporting more. This one of the first genuinely bearish physical signals to emerge since the war began. @JavierBlas offers no satisfying explanations but I will China’s overproduction machine has hit a demand wall. https://t.co/snT1YW3WuM #oil #China #energy #economy...
Trump Says U.S. Oil Exports Need No Restrictions
President Donald Trump said there’s no need for any US export restrictions on oil or jet fuel to address US price increases sparked by the war with Iran. “We don’t need them,” he told reporters Thursday in Washington. “And we have...
Protectionism Makes Everyone Poorer During Global Shocks
Recent global shocks—from the Iran war to Ukraine and the Strait of Hormuz—have prompted governments to impose trade restrictions that often spike prices and volatility. WTO monitoring shows that during the first two months of the Ukraine conflict, 53 trade...
Hormuz Closure Could Add 0.6% to 2026 Inflation
Even under a cautiously optimistic scenario in which the closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for 1 quarter, the surge in oil prices is expected to raise US headline inflation by 0.6 percentage points and core inflation by 0.2...
China’s Covert Oil Import Cuts Cap Prices, Flatten Differentials
COLUMN: China is quietly slashing oil imports, an invisible hand that's rebalancing the market in the middle of the Hormuz closure. (The shift has not only capped benchmark oil prices, but also triggered a collapse in physical differentials) @Opinion https://t.co/GND1uXtbwV
Diesel, Kerosene Rollback Likely Next Week, Says DOE
The Philippine Department of Energy said a strong chance exists for diesel and kerosene price rollbacks next week, with diesel expected to fall about P9 (≈ $0.16) per litre and kerosene about P12 (≈ $0.22). Gasoline is projected to rise modestly by...
Taiwan's Energy Crisis Fueled by Costly Spot LNG
Taiwan is spending its way out of an energy crisis 🇹🇼💰 The country received 35% of its LNG from Qatar/UAE last year. All of that supply is now being replaced by more expensive shipments from the spot market
US NatGas Surplus Grows to 96 Bcf, Prices Slip
U.S natural gas comparative fell 12 bcf to a surplus of 96 bcf week ending May 1 Spot price fell $0.04 to $2.66 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/mxouFSaNgi
Monsters of Rock: Albemarle Rides Lithium Turnaround to Print Cash in March Quarter
Albemarle posted a 670% year‑over‑year profit surge in the March quarter, propelled by a dramatic rebound in lithium prices and higher production volumes. Spodumene prices have risen above $2,750 per tonne, with UBS forecasting a peak of $4,250 per tonne...
US Crude Exports Plunge, Net Imports Rise to 0.7 Mmb/D
US crude exports fell 1.7mmb/d from 6.4 to 4.8 mmb/d week ending May 1 Imports decreased 0.3 mmb/d to 5.5 mmb/d Net imports rose 1.4 mmb/d to 0.7 mmb/d #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/AamhCIUJgi
PJM Admits Capacity Price Surge, Calls for Market Overhaul
PJM just cried "Uncle". They admit that capacity prices are up 1,000%+ in two auctions and that money goes to existing generators, doesn't send a signal to build new on 3 year contracts. The prescription is pretty bold. They aren't...
Oil Futures Rise After U.S., Iran Trade Fire; Stock Futures Quiet After Court Rejects Trump’s Tariffs
U.S. forces launched retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian targets after Navy vessels were attacked, pushing West Texas Intermediate crude up about 2% and lifting Brent prices. The geopolitical flare‑up came as a federal court rejected President Donald Trump’s latest tariff proposal,...
Jet Fuel Demand Plummets From Record Highs, Trend Downward
Jet fuel demand has collapsed from extreme highs It's still above average, but the trend is down fast. The slowdown is already in motion. #OilMarkets #JetFuel #DemandDestruction #EnergyEconomy https://t.co/JDwHlYnP3u
Oil Prices Rise After US and Iran Exchange Fire in Hormuz Strait
Oil prices rose on Friday in Asian markets after the United States and Iran exchanged fire in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military reported intercepting what it called unprovoked Iranian missiles, drones and small‑boat attacks and responded with...
WTI Spot Carries $30 Risk Premium Amid Inventory Gap
WTI spot price includes a $30 risk premium Inventories say $75, markets say $105 CI decreased 7 mmb and price rose $10.14 week ending May 1 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/yJuiZBpbBn
Philippine Peso Gains 1.6% on Oil Price Relief, Eyes Stronger Trade Balance
The Philippine peso rose 1.6% to 60.345 per dollar, its strongest daily gain in a month, after oil prices slipped on optimism surrounding a potential US‑Iran peace deal. The move lifts the peso from its status as Asia's worst performer...
Copper Holds Steady at $13,393/Ton as Traders Eye US‑Iran Truce
Copper settled at $13,393 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, ending a three‑day rally as market participants weighed a potential US‑Iran truce. The pause reflects uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, a factor that could...
The Wrap: AI and Metals Surge, Dollar Gyrates and Private Credit Sinks
Gold prices jumped nearly 3% in five days while silver outperformed, driven by supply bottlenecks in India and broader Asian markets. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet rebounded to roughly $6.65 trillion, adding $42 billion of Treasury bills in February, signaling renewed reserve...
Prices of Used EVs Spike, From Already Lofty Levels, as Gasoline Prices Spike. But Electricity Prices Also Soared
U.S. gasoline prices have surged 57% to $4.58 per gallon, prompting a rebound in demand for used electric vehicles. At auction, wholesale prices for used EVs climbed 3.4% in April to $29,453, marking a 7.8% year‑over‑year increase and widening the...
Morgan Stanley Sees Gold at $5,200 (Central Bank Buys, Fed Cuts), Fear Trade Is Now Dead
Morgan Stanley projects gold to reach $5,200 per ounce by year‑end, driven by renewed ETF and central‑bank buying and anticipated Federal Reserve cuts in early 2027. The bank notes gold has fallen 14.5% since the Iran conflict, underperforming both the...
Chicago Grain and Oilseed Futures Drop on Hopes of US‑Iran Peace Deal
Chicago grain and oilseed futures fell on Tuesday after market participants grew optimistic that the United States and Iran are close to a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The optimism eased earlier supply‑concern fears for nutrient‑intensive...
Mining Alpha with Michael Gentile – Junior Miners Repriced as M&A Sets New Gold Benchmarks
Two landmark acquisitions have reset pricing benchmarks for junior gold miners. G Mining Ventures acquired G2 Goldfields for roughly $600 per ounce, while Agnico Eagle purchased Rupert Resources at $500‑600 per ounce, each representing about a 70% premium to current...
China's Dip‑buying Fuels Emerging Global Gold Rush
China continues to buy the dip in gold. A global gold rush is unfolding right in front of our eyes. https://t.co/mQgTbFf90L https://t.co/QRErTYJHa9
Tiny Brent Swing Now Just Another Thursday
Brent went from a $5/bbl decline to a $2/bbl gain today. Once upon a time that would have been a really remarkable day. Now it’s just Thursday. https://t.co/LZ2YTU2NNo