Today's Commodities Pulse
Lower‑48 gas producers expand output despite storage surplus
U.S. lower‑48 natural‑gas operators are adding production capacity even though storage inventories remain in surplus, according to NGI. At the same time, spot prices are climbing as summer temperatures rise and LNG demand increases.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Traders Eye Northwest Natural Gas Repricing as Canadian Imports Plummet, but Improved Flows Limit Upside (For Now)
Northwest natural‑gas prices rebounded in early May, climbing above $1.30 per MMBtu after a month of sub‑$1 levels. The price gap between California’s Malin hub and the Northwest Sumas point tightened dramatically, reaching just 2 cents—a fraction of the typical 46‑cent spread. The rally reflects a 1.1 Bcf/d drop in Canadian exports to the Pacific and Rockies, while regional storage sits well above the five‑year norm. Maintenance on TC Energy’s GTN pipeline further constrained Malin supplies, briefly lifting premiums elsewhere.
Fertilizer Matters EP49: Middle East Conflict - The Potash Market Anomaly
In this episode, Argus senior editor Mike Nash talks with global potash editor Julia Campbell about how the Middle East conflict is affecting the potash market. While direct supply of MOP (mineral oil‑based potash) remains stable, higher oil and gas...
Driving Less, Canceling Vacations, and Tightening Budgets: All the Ways Americans Are Coping with Soaring Gas Prices
U.S. gasoline prices surged to $4.54 per gallon, the highest level since the early‑2022 Ukraine war, as the conflict in Iran pushes global oil markets higher. A new Ipsos‑Washington Post‑ABC poll shows 44% of Americans have reduced driving, 34% have...
WTI Crude Oil Settles up 61 Cents to $95.42 per Barrel
WTI crude oil settled at $95.42 per barrel, up 61 cents, as the market absorbed ongoing Iran‑U.S. tensions. December WTI futures rose $1.50 to $79.85, narrowing the gap with near‑term contracts and signaling a bullish term structure. Traders are pricing...
Global Commodities: An Inventory Detour
In this episode Greg Shearer and J.P. Morgan’s European natural‑gas analyst Otar Degboadzi discuss how inventory levels are shaping commodity markets. They note that U.S. gas storage is near full capacity (about 2.2 trillion cubic feet), while European gas inventories are...
Oil Prices Rise As US-Iran Fighting Continues
Brent crude jumped to $101.47 a barrel and WTI to $95.71 after the United States and Iran exchanged air strikes, reigniting fears over the Strait of Hormuz and the cease‑fire. Traders priced in potential supply disruptions, pushing prices up as...
Golden Pass LNG Feed Gas Climbs as Second Cargo Prepares to Leave Texas
Golden Pass LNG loaded its second export cargo from the Texas terminal as feed‑gas nominations surged to a new high. The ramp‑up of Train 1 continues, signaling progress toward the plant’s full commercial capacity. This milestone comes amid ongoing global LNG...
Will DOJ Victory Reduce Price of Chicken, Pork and Turkey?
The Justice Department settled a case with Indiana‑based Agri Stats, requiring the firm to share detailed processor data that regulators say helped lift chicken, pork and turkey prices. In March, chicken averaged $3.25 per pound, pork $3.30 and turkey $4.68,...
The Iran War Has Broken the Oil Market’s $100 Barometer
The Iran war has kept Brent crude near $100 a barrel, but refined products are soaring. J.P. Morgan notes jet‑fuel prices have jumped about 72% and gasoline up roughly 52% since the conflict began on Feb. 28. U.S. refiners are shifting output...
Friday Footnotes: A Rundown of the Week that Was
Midweek, corn, soybeans and wheat prices fell after reports suggested a possible peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The market is seeing a clash between bearish fundamental traders, who worry about tighter global grain supplies, and...
Gold, Silver Rates Today: Comex Gold Jumps $50/Oz, Silver Rallies $2 as Traders Track US-Iran Talks
Precious metals extended their rally on Friday, with Comex gold jumping $50 to $4,760 per ounce and silver climbing $2 to $82.16, up 5.45% for the week. The surge was fueled by optimism around a potential US‑Iran peace deal and...
Oil Prices Back Over $100 as Hormuz Remains Closed
Brent crude surged 1.8% to $101.80 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed following U.S. forces disabling two Iranian tankers. Meanwhile, U.S. employers added 115,000 jobs in April, far exceeding expectations and propelling the S&P 500 toward record highs....
Canadian Natural Hits Record Natural Gas Output, Holds Montney Supplies ‘in the Bank’
Canadian Natural Resources posted a record 2.668 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas in the latest quarter, the highest output in the company’s history. The surge coincided with a 6% rise in natural‑gas prices, reflecting tightening global...
‘The Risk of $5 Gasoline Can No Longer Be Dismissed’
Analysts warn that gasoline prices could reach $5 per gallon as supply‑side pressures intensify. Tight global oil demand, OPEC+ output cuts, and a series of U.S. refinery outages are converging to constrain fuel availability. Rising geopolitical risks in key producing...
Asia’s Heat Waves and Oil Shock Push Inflation to Multi‑Year Peaks
Heat waves linked to El Niño and a lingering oil price shock have driven inflation to multi‑year highs across emerging Asian economies. The Philippines and Pakistan saw consumer price inflation climb above 7% and 11% respectively, intensifying pressure on central banks...
Fertilizer Firms See Profit Windfall as War Upends Supplies
Fertilizer giants CF Industries and Nutrien posted roughly 20% sales growth in the latest quarter, driven by soaring nitrogen fertilizer prices after Iran’s war disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. Granular urea in New Orleans jumped about 36% and Egyptian prices...
How China Killed Every Rare Earth Competitor
China has maintained its rare‑earth monopoly for over two decades by deliberately slashing prices whenever a Western firm attempts to develop independent processing capacity. The price‑undercutting destroys the economics of new projects, causing investors to pull back and companies to...
Mozambique Slashes Diesel Affordability with 46% Price Surge Amid Iran War Shock
On May 7, 2026, Mozambique lifted regulated diesel prices by 46%, the steepest hike in the region, as the Iran war pushes global oil costs higher. The move joins Ethiopia, Gambia and Zambia in tightening fuel subsidies, exposing Africa’s vulnerability...
Correction to European Wheat and CVB Wheat Forward Curve Premiums and Outright Prices for September 1st-October 3rd, 2025
Fastmarkets issued a correction for European wheat and CVB wheat forward curve premiums and outright prices covering the September 1 to October 3, 2025 period. The notice lists 14 affected symbols, including FOB contracts for France, Germany, the Baltic, Poland, and Black Sea...
Backwardation Masks True Oil Price, Reflects Convenience Yield
Below we see the front contract for crude oil, as well as its 9-month forward (purple line). For WTI the spread is $109 vs $75. That’s called backwardation, and the lazy interpretation (of which I have been guilty) is that...
Premium PV Module Prices Rise in Europe Despite Softer April Demand
European premium solar‑module prices kept climbing in April despite a dip in the PV Purchasing Managers’ Index, which fell to 66 from 68, signalling slower demand growth. TOPCon bifacial and monofacial modules rose 9% and 6% respectively, reaching €0.117/Wp ($0.13)...
Oil Shock May Mirror 2022 Spike, Not Gulf War
Not to rain on this bullish parade, but there is a left tail lurking out there in the Strait of Hormuz. The more I learn about the mechanics of the energy market, the more concerned I am that what the...
Pakistan Shuns Spot LNG
Pakistan’s state‑owned LNG arm rejected an emergency spot‑market tender for two May cargoes, betting that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and cheaper long‑term supplies from Qatar will arrive. The decision follows a cease‑fire in the US‑Iran conflict but comes...
Vale Indonesia Q1 Shows Nickel Output Decline, Cost Pressures
PT Vale Indonesia’s Q1 2026 earnings transcript is out. Key nickel output and cost trends were discussed—worth a read for insights on market direction. 📉🔍 NickelNews
Clean Energy’s Nickel Rush Is Heading Straight for some of Earth’s Richest Ecosystems – by University of Queensland (Phys.org –...
An international study led by University of Queensland researcher Jayden Hyman warns that meeting the surging demand for nickel—driven by stainless steel and clean‑energy technologies—will likely draw heavily on ecologically sensitive regions. By 2050, roughly half of the world’s mined...
Middle East Conflict Threatens DRC Copper and Cobalt Sector Amid Sulfuric Acid Shortage
China’s suspension of sulfuric acid exports amid heightened Middle East tensions is tightening a critical input for copper leaching worldwide. The disruption could shave up to 125,000 tonnes of copper output from the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2026, while...
HKEX Proposes Reviving Gold Futures as Bullion Volatility Spikes
Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEX) announced a proposal to re‑introduce gold futures, citing heightened investor demand for risk diversification amid geopolitical‑driven bullion volatility. The move aims to position Hong Kong as a premier gold‑trading hub and reconnect futures contracts...
Oil Backwardation May Signal Deeper, Lasting Market Stress
My sense has been that the market is interpreting the backwardated oil strip as a glass half full, concluding that the forward price of $75 is “right” and that the spot price of $109 is temporary. But what if it’s...
Physical Oil Spreads Collapse as Market Reverses
CHARTS OF THE DAY: Rightly or wrongly, the physical oil market has turned around (📉⤵️). Other physical datapoints (early May vs mid Apr): WTI is down to +$2.5 to Dated Brent from +$22 CPC is down to -$0.35 to Dated from +$7 Dalia (a...
Op-Ed: The Copper Supply Crisis Is a Sulfur Management Crisis – by Randy Allen (Mining.com – May 4, 2026)
China abruptly halted sulfuric acid exports on May 1, 2026, sending shockwaves through commodity markets. The move exposed a hidden bottleneck: sulfuric acid is essential for copper leaching, yet the mining sector has treated it as a waste byproduct. With global...
Canadian Stocks Slip 0.37% as Iran Tightens Grip on Strait of Hormuz
Canadian equities slipped 0.37% to 33,856.62 as Iran imposed new transit rules on the Strait of Hormuz, prompting concerns over oil supply disruptions. The decline erased gains from the previous session and highlighted heightened geopolitical risk for North American markets.
Hormuz Disruption Fuels Inflation, Boosts Commodities Amid Stubborn Rates
Market seems to be missing the fact that things will not be "normal" in the Strait of Hormuz for a long, long time. Inflation is on the rise and I like commodities here. Pain trade is going to...
How Canada’s Oilpatch Is Reacting to a Generational Price Shock
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US‑Israeli war with Iran have erased roughly a billion barrels of excess global oil inventory, driving prices to multi‑year highs. Canadian producers, such as Suncor, are enjoying windfalls but are only...
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FAO Food Price Index up for Third Consecutive Month Largely on Rising Vegetable Oil Prices
The FAO Food Price Index rose 1.6% in April, marking a third straight month of gains and a 2% increase over the previous year. The surge was driven primarily by a 5.9% jump in the vegetable oil index, its highest...
Iran Conflict Pushes Global Food Prices to Three-Year High
The United Nations’ food commodity index jumped 1.6% in April, reaching its highest level in over three years as the Iran‑Israel war disrupts supply chains. Prices for vegetable oils, meat and cereals drove the increase, with the meat index up...
Spanish Lettuce Dominates EU Markets
Spain continues to dominate the EU lettuce market, accounting for 50.5% of total sales in 2025 with 499.39 million kg exported, generating €690.34 million (≈ $753 million). The EU’s overall lettuce trade reached 988 million kg, valued at €1,578 million (≈ $1.72 billion), showing steady growth despite Brexit‑related statistical shifts....
Bill Seeks Moratorium on US Oil Exports
Democratic Representative Brad Sherman introduced the Stop Oil Exports to Lower Gas Prices Act, seeking a moratorium on U.S. crude, gasoline and diesel exports while the war with Iran continues. The bill aims to keep domestic supplies abundant, hoping to...
Energy Index Peaks, Mirrors 30‑Year Treasury Deflation Trend
Energy, T-Bonds, Stocks and Post-Inflation Deflation The Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex may have peaked in 2026 at about 500, similar to its 2005 apex, with deflationary implications. My graphic highlights the energy index's same-chart syndrome with the 30-year US Treasury (in...
Today's Gas Futures Mirror 2022 Peak, Pre‑war Levels
US gasoline (RBOB) futures curve today (white), the day before the Iran War kicked off (blue), and around the all-time highs of June 2022 (orange) https://t.co/v35dgEexze
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Overnight grain futures saw notable consolidation, setting a tighter market tone for the session. Volatility has characterized this week’s trade, and traders are positioning ahead of the May WASDE report, which will reveal the first new‑crop balance sheets of the...
US Gasoline Crack Spread Surges, Matching 2022 Levels
US gasoline crack spread (i.e., refining margin) continues to ratchet higher. WAY above the norm, currently tracking 2022's trajectory. https://t.co/h2HPzueo5V
2026/27 Wheat Stocks Uncertain,
🌾The world's wheat cushion for 2026/27 is still largely uncertain. Current analyst scenarios span a 16.5-million-ton range in ending stocks for the upcoming marketing year, a reminder that global food systems remain highly sensitive to production and demand trends. https://t.co/C3rbIt4bHj
Australian Shares Slip 1.7% as Mining and Energy Stocks Drag ASX 200 Below 8,750
The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 fell 149.9 points (1.69%) to 8,728.20 on Friday, extending early losses after Wall Street cues. Weakness in major miners and oil producers outweighed gains in technology shares, leaving the index below the 8,750 threshold.
Analyzing Oil Market Shock After Hormuz Closure
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz now into its 3rd month, I sat down for a wide-ranging discussion with @ProfGMarkets on the reverberations from the largest disruption in history of oil markets, and where we go from here....
Tyson Beef Faces $350‑$500M Loss Amid Cattle Shortage
"Tyson’s beef operations posted a wider loss, and the company expects the segment to lose $350M to $500M in 2026... the severity of the current cattle shortage has sent prices so high that meatpackers are losing money on every animal...
Toyota’s FY Profit Plunges 19% as U.S. Tariffs Wipe Out $9 Billion
Toyota Motor Corp posted a 19% decline in fiscal‑year profit to 3.85 trillion yen ($25 bn), saying U.S. tariffs on auto parts erased roughly $9 bn of operating income. The loss came despite a rise in global vehicle sales, underscoring how trade policy...
Silver Gains Amid Metals Complex Developments
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: May 8, 2026 - Silver's Lining..." Developments in the metals complex - via The Lyons Share https://t.co/LuHqjsW3zE https://t.co/VzwML7lZxc
Food Prices Hit Highest Level Since Feb 2023
The FAO Food Price Index rose 1.6% to 130.7 points in April 2026, marking a third consecutive monthly increase and reaching the highest since February 2023. @teconomics https://t.co/bpHk0ywtYy
Derivatives Push Up Prices of Oil Substitutes
Ripple Effects: Derivatives and oil-substitute product prices are now rising. - Plastics - Rubber - Cotton - Vegetable oils Only the beginning... https://t.co/79egdw2eDg
Oil Prices May Drop, Debt Burden Continues Rising
At some point, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and oil prices will fall back to pre-war levels. But the latest rise in long-term yields won't get reversed. Every shock that happens permanently ratchets up global fiscal stress. A one-way...