Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees to modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision as the conflict in the Middle East constrains output and shipments. Delegates said the move signals alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Also developing:
The episode examines how the escalating Iran‑Houthi conflict is driving oil prices above $100 per barrel and triggering a sharp market sell‑off. It highlights the G7 finance ministers' meeting, where they will discuss measures such as cutting fuel duties to ease household costs, while central banks weigh inflation risks versus economic slowdown. European inflation data, especially Germany’s jump to around 2.7%, is reviewed as an early gauge of the energy shock’s impact, influencing expectations for ECB rate hikes. The hosts also note the broader implications for global trade routes and upcoming U.S. payroll data.
Gold prices have slumped about 25% from their record $5,602 (≈€4,873) peak to around $4,500 (≈€3,915) despite the ongoing Iran war, as a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields eroded safe‑haven appeal. The drop triggered a rapid unwind of...
Economists warn that a sustained oil price of $150 per barrel, driven by escalating US‑Israel‑Iran tensions, could push the global economy into a rare mid‑year recession. Brent crude already breached $116, reflecting heightened war risk and supply concerns. Oxford Economics...
Commercial electricity prices have jumped 19% since 2019, reaching 12.8 cents per kilowatt‑hour, while industrial rates hit 8.1 cents/kWh, driving unprecedented cost volatility for C&I firms. Traditional procurement and efficiency measures no longer shield margins, prompting a shift toward Distributed Energy Resource...
The cocoa market has swung from record highs—above $4,000 per metric ton—to a sharp decline, leaving Ghanaian and Ivorian farmers unpaid for delivered beans. While chocolate makers scramble to cut margins, shrink bar sizes, or substitute ingredients, smallholder growers remain...
Gold prices slipped on Monday, with spot gold falling 0.6% to $4,466.99 per ounce, marking a 15% monthly decline—the sharpest since October 2008. The drop was driven by a surge in energy prices after a Houthi attack, which lifted Brent...
Electric vehicles rely heavily on Gulf‑sourced aluminum, but the U.S.–Iran conflict has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, forcing major smelters in Bahrain and Qatar to cut or halt output. Toyota and Nissan have already trimmed production by roughly 40,000 units,...
South Korea is weighing a nationwide driving‑curb policy if global crude oil prices climb to roughly $120‑$130 per barrel, up from the current $100‑$110 range. The measure would extend the current public‑sector vehicle rotation system, marking the first country‑wide restriction...
Gold futures climbed 0.78% on Monday, reaching $4,528.23 per ounce in New York. In India, spot demand pushed the price of gold on the Multi‑Commodity Exchange to ₹1,44,800 per 10 grams, a ₹518 (0.36%) increase for April contracts. The rally was driven...
Al Taweelah smelter damage raises new risks for UAE aluminium supply, bauxite flows, and Gulf freight markets. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/al-taweelah-smelter-damage-raises-new.html
The biggest oil supply shock in history has reached the one-month mark And the energy industry is warning that the crisis is only beginning 👇⚠️ https://t.co/AZ661hxNtt https://t.co/HF3YvOdLZx
European markets opened lower on Monday but quickly split, with Germany's DAX barely down 0.04%, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.59% and France's CAC 40 edged up 0.05%. The divergence follows a 50% jump in Brent crude since the Iran...
why oil price rises have been so orderly so far, and why that is about to change.. https://t.co/TAIdkwIkdQ
COLUMN: Five weeks into the Third Gulf War, the math of oil-barrel counting is intractable: The world is short of the black stuff. Enter demand destruction. @Opinion https://t.co/Y2DPUcHM8s
The Australian federal government announced a temporary halving of the fuel excise, cutting pump prices by about 26.3 cents per litre, and reduced the heavy‑vehicle road user charge (RUC) to zero for three months. It also postponed a scheduled 6% RUC...
JUST IN: Markets dropped to a four-month trough as the oil price surge unnerved traders.
JUST IN: Trump's Strait of Hormuz warning and Iran's counter-threats are making oil prices jumpy.
India’s brewers warn of glass bottle and aluminium can shortages as gas‑driven packaging costs surge, while farmers describe fertilizer as “as precious as gold” after Urea prices jumped to $600/ton. A parallel cash‑flow squeeze at fuel depots, caused by oil...
JUST IN: Goldman Sachs now sees Brent crude averaging $85 a barrel in 2026, an $8 increase to their prior forecast.
Maersk announced an emergency fuel surcharge and temporarily halted operations at its Salalah terminal after a drone attack injured a worker and damaged a crane. The move comes as the Israel‑Iran‑Houthi conflict closes the Strait of Hormuz and pushes global...
U.S. pump prices are climbing toward $4 a gallon as the Iran‑Israel war drives crude above $100 a barrel and diesel to record levels. Analysts warn the surge could deepen stagflation, hitting families and farmers alike.
Oil prices jumped above $116 a barrel on Sunday as Iran‑backed Houthi militants fired missiles and drones at Israel, extending the conflict into its fifth week. Brent crude rose 3.3% to $116.25, while U.S. WTI climbed about 3% to nearly...
The United States’ 50% tariff on aluminum imports, lifted from a 10% rate in 2018, is being called counterproductive as the Iran‑Israel conflict chokes shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Industry analysts say the duty adds a “Midwest premium” that...
Irish Farmers Association president Francie Gorman wrote to Agriculture Minister Martin Heydon demanding the EU suspend the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism for fertiliser imports. The plea comes as natural‑gas‑linked fertiliser prices have risen by about 66% since early March and...
U.S. and Iranian hostilities have slashed daily tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz by up to 95%, pushing Brent crude above $113 per barrel and inflating marine insurance to double‑digit percentages. The disruption fuels market anxiety while regional diplomats...
Brent crude rose above $115 a barrel, up $3 over the weekend, as the Middle East war entered its fifth week. The conflict, which began on February 28 with Israeli and U.S. airstrikes in Iran, has tightened global oil supplies....
I’ve been describing the supply loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an “air pocket” moving through the normal flow of oil out of the Gulf Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in...
The Strait of Hormuz blockade is pushing oil and natural‑gas prices higher, which in turn is inflating fertilizer costs. The article spotlights three commodity‑linked stocks that could benefit: CF Industries, whose North‑American gas access fuels strong earnings of $1.46 billion in...
Oil markets opened the week on a bullish note, with Brent crude climbing about $2.70 to roughly $115.30 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate rising $2.35 to near $102 per barrel. The gains came as U.S. equity index futures...
The United States has authorized a Russian‑flagged tanker, the Anatoly Kolodkin, to deliver between 650,000 and 730,000 barrels of crude oil to Cuba, temporarily easing a long‑standing de facto oil blockade. The move coincides with a broader, short‑term relaxation of Russia‑related...
The author updates the key precious‑metal charts amid heightened market volatility driven by the Iran‑related oil price surge. Despite a sharp pullback, gold remains in an uptrend, as its 200‑day moving average stays upward‑sloping. The metal has become deeply oversold,...
Oil prices jumped sharply after the Iran‑Israel conflict entered its fourth week, prompting a sell‑off in European equities. Traders cite higher energy costs and heightened geopolitical risk as the main drivers of the market slide.
Larry Fink: oil could hit $150/bbl — even AFTER a ceasefire — if Iran remains a threat. Brent is already at $112. The tail risk isn't priced. Equities are still trading like this ends cleanly. What does $150 oil do to inflation? To...
Australia faces a deepening petrol crisis as more than 500 service stations have run out of at least one fuel type, driving prices sharply higher. The shortage stems from the war sparked by the US and Israel in Iran and...
Lotta people love to play with Hormuz offset balance math—and boy, oh boy, the numbers I've seen bouncing around... But let's keep it dead simple and focus on pure output: There's now ~10 MMbpd of crude oil production shut-ins confirmed across the...
JUST IN: Some oil refiners turn to Brent Oil as Dubai benchmark becomes increasingly unstable https://t.co/t3Ib44eX0I
JUST IN: Asian buyers are bidding up Brent Crude Oil, paying steep premiums as supply tightens Pushing global oil prices upwards of $115/ barrel https://t.co/kh3DZ9EpdH
Oil going straight up to levels we were looking for - staying Long in Brent $BNO terms https://t.co/MJlPz9oFW6
🌏 Asia ORB Set | GC High: 4537.70 | Low: 4511.80 🎬 Live trade 9am: https://t.co/UFRUqEw6Kf ─────── 🌍 Middle East tensions spike, driving safe-haven bids. ─────── 📊 Gold futures grinding higher, testing 4535.00 resistance. ─────── 🎯 Watch 4537.70 ORB high—break ignites bullish surge.
📈Speculators' grain & oilseed bullishness has reached the levels of late March 2021 & 2022, times when balance sheets certainly looked tighter than today. But are supplies at risk this year? Fewer corn acres? Big bean oil demand? Weather scare? Trade...
Just mentioned to my business partner (wife) that Brent opened at $16.25 Realized I’m now dropping the leading $100
Gas prices in the US rose to $4.10 per gallon last week, their highest level since August 2022. The 33% increase over the last 4 weeks ($3.07/gallon to $4.10/gallon) is the biggest 4-week spike we've seen in the past 30 years....
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since September 2022, rising 52% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. https://t.co/KYmqkbca60
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... Heating Oil: +77% European Natural Gas: +71% Brent Crude Oil: +58% WTI Crude Oil: +51% Urea: +48% Diesel: +44% Sulfur: +43% Gasoline: +42% Fertilizer: +29% Coal: +21% Palm Oil: +14% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7% US Natural Gas: +6%
My latest with @davidlin_TV on physical vs. paper oil markets: "The physical markets are trading well above the paper market prices. Eventually, the paper market is going to be MUGGED BY REALITY, & the price of the paper market will be...
2025–26 likely marks the peak plateau for global oil @acidiclemon2 Everything depends on duration A quick resolution could trigger a price-driven rebound (low probability) Longer disruption==> contraction defines the years ahead (high probability) #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
“.. US government officials and Wall Street analysts are starting to consider the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel.” @business https://t.co/jKbSZuzsl7 https://t.co/RvefSmh0vP
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices. That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than...
Gold Price Forecast: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Surges 10% After Crash—Bottom In or Bull Trap? https://t.co/CwnEhFzNtn $XAUUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/NoYtoXTuYs
