Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Prices for Salmon From Norway Climb Heading Into Week 19
Atlantic salmon exported from Norway rose sharply in Week 18, with the Sitagri Salmon Index showing continued gains into early Week 19. As of 3 May, the average global export price reached NOK 91.87 per kilogram (approximately $8.54 or €7.90), up nearly NOK 10 ($0.93) from the previous week. The price surge reflects tightening global supply and strong demand from key markets. Norway, the world’s leading salmon producer, now commands higher export rates across Europe and North America.
Brent Crude Slides Below $100 on US‑Iran Deal Hopes
Good morning. Brent crude is currently trading below $100 per barrel on hopes for a US-Iran deal (CNBC chart). #oil #energy #economy #markets
Physical Oil Market Does Not Run on Political Timelines
Rystad Energy says a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal is already pushing down oil futures, but physical markets will lag. It estimates a six‑to‑eight‑week gap between credible access to the Strait of Hormuz and a return to 80‑90% of pre‑disruption volumes,...
Lithium Surge Drives AMG Revenue, yet EBITDA Lags
Macro: lithium surge boosts AMG revenue; EBITDA down vs strong comps. Drivers: Bitterfeld ramp, vanadium margins, inventory writedown reversal. Risks: leverage, working-capital. Trade: buy dips.— Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Nickel Demand to Grow on EV Shift, but Africa’s Global Production Share Remains Small
Global nickel demand is set to rise as electric‑vehicle and energy‑storage markets expand, with batteries already representing 13 % of consumption in 2023. Production surged 47 % from 2019 to 2023, driven largely by Indonesia’s rapid output growth. Africa, despite holding about...
The Oil Security Paradox: Every War Becomes an Oil Crisis in a Fossil-Fuel Economy
On March 10, 2026 Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, removing roughly 20 percent of global oil trade and sending Brent crude above $120 a barrel. The shock rippled worldwide, pushing US gasoline to $4 a gallon and prompting emergency measures in over...
Stock Market Today: Oil Prices Extend Slide on Hopes of Talks
Oil prices fell about 3% to $98 a barrel as optimism grows over renewed U.S.-Iran talks to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The dip coincided with a retreat in Treasury yields and a weakening dollar, which...
Natural Gas Prices Weekly Update – JKM, TTF and Henry Hub (7 May 2026)
Natural gas prices rose across the major benchmarks last week as geopolitical tension and supply constraints tightened markets. In Asia, the JKM index climbed to the low $18s per MMBtu after fears of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure. Europe’s...
New Zealand Faces ‘Massive Negative Energy Shock’, OECD Warns
The OECD’s 2026 economic review warns New Zealand of a "massive negative energy shock" that could cripple export‑driven industries unless the country dramatically expands renewable electricity generation. It critiques the government’s $1 billion LNG port plan as a short‑term band‑aid that will...
RON95 and Diesel Prices up RM0.05/litre, Subsidised Petroleum Prices Maintained From 7-13 May
Malaysia’s Ministry of Finance announced a 5‑sen increase for RON95 to RM4.02 ($0.88) per litre and diesel to RM5.17 ($1.14) per litre for the week of 7‑13 May, while RON97 stays at RM4.90 ($1.08). The government will keep subsidised fuel rates...
1973: War in the Middle East Causes Oil Crisis in Britain
In October 1973, Arab nations imposed an oil embargo after the United States air‑lifted $2.2 billion in weapons to Israel, causing global barrel prices to quadruple. Britain, though not formally targeted, responded with a 50 mph speed limit, petrol‑ration cards and saw...
Today's Oil Prices Boost U.S. Economy, Not Burden
"Oil prices are at similar levels to 2007." Truth: We have a long way to go to hit $148/barrel peak oil from 07/08 and on an inflation adjusted basis it was well over $200/barrel. We are far away from that...
Federal Labor Unveils Plans for Fossil Gas Reservation to Ensure Share of Production Is Not Exported
Energy Minister Chris Bowen announced a new east‑coast gas reserve that will require exporters to set aside 20% of their output for the Australian market starting July 2027. The reservation applies to contracts signed after the policy takes effect and...
The Spot Mirage: Low Wholesale Prices Show the Future, but Are a Poor Signal for New Wind and Solar
Wholesale electricity prices in Australia’s NEM have fallen so low that they cannot fund new wind or solar projects, creating a looming two‑year supply gap once the current 4 GW of large‑scale renewables are commissioned. The shortfall stems from oversupply, which...
Hamilton’s Net Oil Price (WTI) Variable
Hamilton’s Net Oil Price (NOP) metric applies a three‑year rolling average of WTI crude to smooth short‑term volatility. The chart, covering 1970‑2025, highlights recession periods in gray and shows how NOP has behaved across multiple business cycles. While the pre‑2010...
Snorkelling for Negative Prices
The episode examines Norway’s unusually low hydro reservoir levels after a record‑cold winter and a severe precipitation deficit, which have turned the country from a net power exporter into an importer for the first time in years. Experts explain how...
World Bank Predicts Metals Price Rise in 2026
The World Bank projects a 17% rise in global metals and minerals prices in 2026, led by a 22% jump in aluminum and a 42% surge in precious metals. Strong industrial demand and ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East...
Hormuz Oil Flows to Drop to 40% Pre‑war Levels.
This is the most important chart of the day @Kpler projects flows thru the Strait of Hormuz to be at only 40% of pre-war levels a year from now. For all of you who have enjoyed criticizing Peak Oil for the last...
Brent Projected to Average $170+ by Q2 2027
Once cumulative oil losses are fully priced, the base case starts to look a lot like the adverse case @Mgubel The path is volatile, but it pulls Brent toward a ~$170+ average by Q2 2027. #Oil #Brent #EnergyCrisis #DemandDestruction #Commodities #EnergyMarkets...
Chinese Metal Exports Surge to Record Levels as Middle East War Fuels Demand
China's leading metal industry association reports that aluminum exports are on track for a record year, with the Middle East war cutting regional supplies and spurring demand for clean‑tech metals like copper. The surge highlights how geopolitical shocks are reshaping...
Silver Surge Signals New Era of Higher Metal Prices
What a move in silver. Game on. We are in a structurally higher metal price environment driven by decades of underinvestment, constrained supply growth, and a global macro environment that continues to favor hard assets. Markets are still very slow to fully...
Brent May Spike to $140, Then Settle Near $100
Base case: Brent pushes toward $140 by October Then demand destruction resets the market to a ~$100–105 clearing range. #Oil #Brent #EnergyCrisis #DemandDestruction #Commodities #EnergyMarkets #SupplyShock #Macro #Inflation #Energy https://t.co/rl6RmImm1d
OPEC Crude Output Hits 36‑Year Low as Iran War Slashes Exports
OPEC’s crude output fell by 420,000 barrels per day to 20.55 million bpd in April, the lowest level since 1990, after the Iran war forced deeper shut‑ins in Kuwait and Iran. The slump follows an 8.6 million‑bpd plunge in March, the steepest...
Australia Mandates 20% of New LNG for Locals
Australia will require its LNG producers to reserve 20% of its new gas production for the domestic market 🇦🇺🚢 The government aims to curb prices and avert shortages on the populous east coast. The gas industry AND environmentalists broadly oppose this https://t.co/9Nk7ADuxJe
Iran Crisis Highlights Global Oil Supply Security Risks
My panel discussion on @AJEnglish programme “Counting the Cost”, which tackled some key key big-picture questions around oil supply and energy supply security thrown up by the Iran crisis. https://t.co/8wzz9MElfI
Reframing Oil Pricing Strategy, Signals Balance Across Value Chain
The Thai government has tightened oil pricing policy by mandating a refining margin reduction to 5 baht per litre (about $0.14), up from 2 baht ($0.06). This move intensifies pressure on refiners, who already operate on thin margins below 1 baht/L ($0.03) and...
Bloomberg Brent Misleads; Real Oil Near $150, Hits Poor First
$110 Brent exists only on a Bloomberg screen. The real barrel is trading closer to $150. There’s already a shortage—but it’s hitting poorer countries first So stock markets don’t care. 👇 https://t.co/b1WsmkK3e3 #Oil #EnergyCrisis #PhysicalMarket #SupplyShock #EnergySecurity #Hormuz #Commodities #Inflation #GlobalMarkets #EnergyFlows
Texas Regulator Highlights Record Oil Exports, Rising Production Amid Iran Disruption
Texas Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian highlighted a record first‑quarter at the Port of Corpus Christi and Diamondback Energy’s plan to boost drilling and exports, linking the surge to Iran‑related supply disruptions. He credited years of state investment in drilling capacity...
Brazil Nears Full Beef Quota to China, Threatening Export Shift
Brazil's meatpackers are on track to meet the 2026 Chinese beef import quota by mid‑year, after shipping more than 510,000 tons—about 65% of the limit—so far. The looming quota cap, coupled with a 55% tariff on excess volumes, could shave...
April 2026 Global PMI Shows Rising Supply‑Chain Risks as Energy Shortages Hit Manufacturing
The April 2026 Global Purchasing Managers’ Index shows seven of 30 surveyed economies in outright contraction and 17 experiencing slowing growth, while input‑price inflation hits its fastest pace since 2022. Energy rationing tied to the Middle East conflict and the...
US Gasoline and Distillate Inventories Sink Below 5-Year Range, Set to Hit Historic Lows
U.S. gasoline and distillate stockpiles have fallen to levels not seen in five years, according to the latest Energy Information Administration data released on May 6, 2026. Nationwide gasoline inventories slipped to roughly 210 million barrels, while distillate supplies dropped to about 115 million...
Senate Ag Schedules Fertilizer Hearing
The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on May 12 to examine the persistent rise in fertilizer prices and the challenges of securing a stable supply for U.S. growers. Witnesses include Corey Rosenbusch of the Fertilizer Institute and representatives from...
Rising Wholesale Power Prices: What Energy Buyers, Developers, and Lenders Need to Know About PPA Risk in 2026
U.S. wholesale electricity prices surged in 2025, with year‑on‑year gains of 62% in New York, 60% in New England, and 45% in PJM, driven by higher natural‑gas costs and tightening capacity markets. Despite a record 54 GW of new utility‑scale generation...
US Oil Plunges 13% on Iran Headlines Volatility
US oil price action today was nuts today. WTI dropped as much as -13.6% at the days low and looking to end the day down around -6.3% Tthe reactionary and skeptical elements of US-Iran headlines drive this volatility. Second biggest 'lower...
Tiny Price Elasticity Could Boost Canadian Output Dramatically
If the Canadian oil supply elasticity with respect to oil price were even 1/200th of the claimed oil supply elasticity with respect to average carbon pricing costs, we'd be producing 26 million barrels per day by next Tuesday. All numbers...
Iran War Boosts Russia April Oil Tax Revenue to 6 Month High
Russia’s federal oil tax receipts jumped to 707.1 bn rubles (about $9.5 bn) in April, the highest level since October, as the Urals crude price climbed to $77 per barrel amid the Iran‑related supply shock. The surge was partially offset by record...
Lithium Prices Surge; Albemarle Beats Profit Forecast
Lithium prices are marching higher ... @AlbemarleCorp's quarterly profit was more than double Wall Street's expectations. $ALB https://t.co/jtunCdXDQu
Only a COVID‑scale Demand Shock Offsets Hormuz Closure
"only thing that could possibly offset the supply lost due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be another exogenous COVID-level demand destruction event" https://t.co/PPzI5Mt2Ni
Competition Intensifies for Cropland Close to SE Wisconsin Dairies
Farmland values in southeastern Wisconsin have jumped 25%‑35% since December, according to Compeer Financial appraiser David Kluck. The surge stems from a tight supply of cropland and heightened interest from large dairies seeking nearby land to spread manure. Proximity matters...
WTI Crude Plummets 6% to $77, Possible False Breakout
December WTI crude oil futures slammed 6%... down to $77... was that a false breakout? https://t.co/QzrbXc0P6e
DHL CEO Warns of Jet‑fuel Shortfall in Asia, Threatens Air Cargo Capacity
DHL chief executive Frank Meyer warned that a persistent shortfall of 10‑12 million barrels of crude per day could tighten jet‑fuel supplies at key Asian airports, prompting flight cancellations and higher air‑freight charges. The warning follows Middle‑East conflict that has choked...
Brent Outpaces S&P 500 in the Past Five Trading Days
Brent crude prompt futures (white) vs S&P 500 futures (blue) over the past 5 trading days https://t.co/EFvg7xDNWL
European Gas Traders Buy Options Betting on €100/MWh Winter Spike
European natural‑gas traders have snapped up options contracts that price a winter benchmark at up to €100 per megawatt‑hour, more than double today’s level. The move signals growing concern that the Middle‑East conflict will choke supplies and force inventories to...
Indonesia Posts 5.6% Q1 Growth Amid Iran‑Related Energy Crisis
Indonesia's Statistics Agency reported a 5.61% year‑on‑year rise in first‑quarter 2026 GDP, beating Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal forecasts. The expansion came despite a regional energy shock tied to the Iran‑related conflict, highlighting the resilience of the Southeast Asian giant.
Brent Spread Returns to Pre‑war Levels, Doom Forecasts Falter
The spread between Dated Brent and the July futures price is back to pre-war levels. The same people who one month ago told us this thing can only go wider are still forecasting the apocalypse. Maybe they're right, but their...
Not All Oil Giants Are Prospering From the Iran War
Oil prices have surged amid the Iran‑Russia conflict, with Brent averaging $118 per barrel in Q1 2026, far above analysts’ $60 forecast. While the higher price environment should lift all majors, U.S. giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron are seeing only modest margin...
US Fuel Exports Surge 20% to 8.2 Mn Barrels Daily
Last week, the US exported more than 8.2mn barrels a day of refined fuels including gasoline, diesel & jet fuel, an increase of more than 20% from the same period last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. https://t.co/fTwGskrYWH...
Daily Energy Report
Oil markets tumbled on May 6 after Axios reported a near‑final US‑Iran memorandum of understanding that could end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude dropped more than 13%, briefly slipping below $100 per barrel to around $98...
Starved Supply Feeds Strong Profit Growth
Supply of nitrogen fertilizer remains tightly constrained by geopolitical tensions, export quotas and chronic underinvestment, while demand stays largely inelastic. The global market leader leverages low‑cost U.S. natural gas to achieve industry‑leading margins, growing revenue 11% and NOPAT 29% annually...
BIMCO Warns Project Freedom Pause Spikes Hormuz Risk
BIMCO Warns Abrupt ‘Project Freedom’ Pause Complicates Hormuz Risk Calculus. Oil and other products that come thru the Strait. Can this go on until supply shortage meets demand destruction? https://t.co/R2ZJUtaZxX