Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees to modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision as the conflict in the Middle East constrains output and shipments. Delegates said the move signals alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Also developing:
The Metal Movers episode examines how the Iran‑Israel conflict has disrupted global steel markets, from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to direct strikes on Iranian steel plants. Reporters detail the immediate supply shock—loss of roughly 500,000‑600,000 t/month of Iranian billets and slabs, halted pellet shipments, and higher freight and insurance costs—causing price spikes for slab, hot‑rolled coil and rebar across Europe, Asia and the Gulf. They also explain how the energy crunch and rising gas prices are squeezing electric‑arc furnace producers, while Chinese and other Asian suppliers are stepping in to fill the billet gap. The team’s expertise at Argus Media provides real‑time data and market‑level insight into these cascading effects.
$Gold - The March candle was a bearish engulfing candle similar to September 2011. At the monthly low it hit the 10 month MA as it did in September 2011. The bull market may be over and gold could suffer...
US ferrous scrap prices are projected to fall about 3.1% month‑on‑month in April, with the Fastmarkets Trend Indicator slipping to 46.9, below the neutral 50 threshold. Consensus sentiment hit a record low of 47.0, indicating minimal agreement on future direction....
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has ignited a multi‑commodity crisis, with illicit diesel siphoning in India, Brent crude up 60%, urea prices up 30%, and helium spot prices jumping 70‑100%. The fallout is rattling supply chains from fuel to food and high‑tech...
Ivanhoe Mines announced a reduction in its copper production guidance for the Kamoa‑Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The cut follows a severe flood in 2024 that forced a shutdown of underground mining in May 2025. Management outlined...
A new analysis by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and The Brattle Group finds that investor‑owned utilities requested $18 billion in rate increases last year, with roughly two‑thirds approved, signaling further retail electricity price hikes. From 2019 to 2025, residential electricity rates...
The International Energy Agency warned that oil supply disruptions from the Middle East will intensify in April as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, cutting off more than 12 million barrels per day. The loss is projected to be twice March’s...
The escalating war with Iran is destabilizing Middle‑East oil supplies, prompting global buyers to seek alternatives. African basins—particularly offshore Namibia, Ghana, and Nigeria—are attracting heightened investor attention thanks to favorable geology and lower‑cost drilling technologies. New seismic imaging and digital‑oilfield...
India’s major oil refiners, long buoyed by cheap Russian crude, are now grappling with tighter supply and falling margins as the Gulf war disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this key shipping lane has choked the flow of...
The Biden administration imposed countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imports, effectively creating a hidden tax on U.S. farmers. Because the United States relies on overseas sources for roughly 80 % of its phosphate, the tariffs raise input costs and squeeze farm...
Hormuz Closure, December Futures Signal Post-Inflation Deflation - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz might have already triggered a global recession, with lose-lose implications for most risk assets and commodities -- particularly crude oil. Rolling to front-month just before...
Natural Gas $5, T-Bonds 5%: Inflation vs. Deflation - January (Jan27) US natural gas futures and the 30-year Treasury bond on the same scale highlights inflation vs. deflation implications of $5 per million BTU gas and 5% yields. Full report on...
Toray Industries announced a temporary surcharge on select products to offset sharply higher crude oil, naphtha and other petrochemical raw material costs driven by escalating Middle East tensions. The price adjustment targets performance chemicals, carbon‑fibre composites, fibres and textiles, with...
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz prompted a limited easing of sanctions on Russian crude, sparking a sharp surge in Urals oil prices. At the same time, Russia’s oil export capacity is being hampered by a series of...
March 2026 saw a sharp market downturn driven by the escalating war with Iran. While most major asset classes posted losses, the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity‑Indexed Trust (GSG) surged more than 24%, making it the month’s top performer, and cash...
Oil prices slipped after President Trump reiterated his willingness to end the Iran conflict without tying it to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials responded with cautious optimism, saying they are ready to end hostilities but demand...
CFTC enforcement chief David Miller announced a new enforcement drive against insider trading on prediction‑market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. He pledged to hire additional staff, pursue civil and criminal cases, and roll out a streamlined cooperation policy, signaling...
Indonesia is preparing a progressive export levy on processed nickel products such as nickel pig iron and ferronickel. The tax starts at about 2% when LME prices sit between $15,000‑$16,000 per ton and can rise to roughly 10% as prices...
Kenyan Matatu Owners Association urged the government to reinstate fuel subsidies if global price shocks raise local fuel costs. The association warned that higher fuel prices would be passed to commuters, straining household budgets and sector profitability. MOA President Albert...
The Persian Gulf oil embargo has driven global oil prices to record highs, pushing diesel to roughly $5.50 per gallon and inflating a full tanker truckload to about $50,000. This surge threatens the cost structure of small Alaskan placer‑gold miners,...
Wood Mackenzie projects Guinea’s Simandou mine to become the leading driver of seaborne iron‑ore supply growth, targeting about 16 million tonnes of exports in 2026 with a phased ramp‑up thereafter. After two decades of delay, the project entered execution following Guinea’s...
Oil prices have surged since Iran’s conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts warn the rally may be just the beginning. Strategic petroleum reserves and inventory drawdowns have temporarily softened the shock, yet significant volumes of oil remain stranded...
Ok, so here is the debate: Bull: higher oil price will raise inflation and reduce the LEVEL of disposable income/profits. But even if oil prices stay high, impact on GROWTH eventually wears off. Its a soft patch. And since we know...
I sat down with @GoldSwitzerland partner Matthew Piepenburg, a former hedge fund trader who made millions during the dot-com bubble at 28, and author of "Rigged to Fail." Gold just crashed 25%. He says buy more. "Gold is not rising to an...
Malaysia’s Energy Commission warned that electricity generation costs will rise as global fuel markets tighten, especially after the Middle‑East crisis. About 80% of natural‑gas pricing for power is fixed domestically, but the remaining 20% is imported and linked to the...
Oil prices slipped below $100 per barrel after President Trump signaled a possible end to the Iran conflict, prompting Brent and WTI to trade under the psychological $100 mark. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose 10.3 million barrels, while the API data...
Oil prices plunged on Wednesday, with Brent June futures slipping 4.35% to $99.45 per barrel and U.S. WTI falling 3.99% to $97.34. The decline came despite signals that the U.S.-Iran conflict could be winding down, as investors reacted to lingering...
When a regulator tells you not to worry, read the footnote. The Energy Commission confirmed higher electricity tariffs are coming, and in the same breath, noted that more than 8 out of 10 household users will not be affected — for...
CHARTS OF THE DAY: What's the inflationary impact of the US-Iran war for Europe (and thus the ECB and BoE)? Sure, the price of oil and refined products has risen. But paralells between the curent shock and the 2022 energy...
Last week natural‑gas prices diverged across regions. In Asia, the JKM spot index jumped to $20 /MBtu, spiking into the high‑$22s amid renewed Iran‑related geopolitical risk and unplanned Australian LNG outages. Europe’s TTF fell to $18.3 /MBtu as Norwegian deliveries rose and...
📊 GOLD – D1 Market Outlook 🪙 🔎 On the Daily timeframe, a Demand Zone (Rally–Base–Rally) has formed 📈 and above we have a Supply Zone (Drop–Base–Drop) acting as resistance. 📉 ⚡ The market may take a pullback toward the demand zone before...
Global jet‑fuel prices have surged, with the International Air Transport Association reporting an average of $195.19 per barrel and the U.S. Argus index exceeding $4.60 per gallon—more than double pre‑conflict levels. The spike is forcing airlines to trim capacity, with...
For decades, the price at the Malaysian petrol pump has been a rare constant in an ever-changing global economy. But the familiar green nozzle is about to represent a significant shift in the household ledger.
Malaysia’s food prices could surge as much as 50% after an energy shock tied to the Iran war drives fuel costs higher. Traders report raw ingredient prices already up 20‑30% before the fuel jump, forcing hawkers and restaurants to consider...
The article warns that global LNG downstream investment is lagging behind a surge in liquefaction capacity, driving the regas‑to‑liquefaction ratio down from 2.7 in 2015 to 2.4 in 2025 and projected to hit a historic low of 1.75 by 2035....
Trump has unleashed a positive feedback loop that’s going to have significant negative impacts: Reduced fertilizer supply = higher cost, farmers planting less, additional crop failure = lower crop supply = higher food prices + inflation, which will drive up...
Watch Price of Brent Should Be Higher to Reflect Situation in Iran War, Says Ellen Wald - Bloomberg @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #iran https://t.co/rdYCFWeqvC
I will keep retweeting updates of @GasBuddyGuy great data. This dispersion in diesel prices is both striking and relevant.
Though fertilizer prices are soaring, so far food prices are not. Good news from Alan Beattie in the Financial Times. Featured on today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/4bpBb11NI9
Gas grid operator VNG has urged the German government to take action to make sure storage is refilled with price spreads uneconomical amid high prices driven by the Middle East war. https://t.co/wlBhZjRU8Z
The big drop you see in Brent crude prices overnight is primarily the prompt (ie front-month) contract roll from May to June May Brent crude contract expired at >$118 June currently [somehow??] trading at $101 So relieved to hear this will be entirely...
Spoke to @AJEnglish on Iran war & energy. Crises always drive up fossil fuel prices. That's not a bug but a feature of dependence. The only hedge against this kind of disruption is the clean energy transition. The economic case just got...
Brent has fallen sharply as the US sounds increasingly like it just wants to declare "mission accomplished" and end this war. I do think the midterm elections later this year mean the US is on a very tight timeline and...
When the G7 price cap was being negotiated in 2022, one US bank had an oil forecast of $380. That was the oil sector talking. It hates interference in its business. It's the same now. $150 or $200 forecasts...
Brent futures are beginning to reflect physical reality $118. 35 closing price was only $0.68 less than peak Ukraine in late March 2022 Much steeper backwardation now https://t.co/N03VvzUcs3
For non-Macro Tourist eyes only: LIVE Shot of the "end of the war" in TRENDING Energy Price terms https://t.co/BnmybmKwlL
India's top coal producer said output fell in March, but that it still has enough stockpiles to meet higher demand 🇮🇳⚠️ Coal consumption in India is now on an upward trajectory on expectations of a hot summer and gas shortages due...
If usa friendly regime takes control of strait of Hormuz it will be very bullish., https://t.co/bpWTMUPjFa
🇵🇰Pakistan LPG price surge intensifies hardship for citizens 🇧🇩A deepening shortage of LPG now grips Bangladesh’s domestic market. 🇰🇭Cambodia Races to Avert Fuel Crunch as Global LPG and Diesel Shortages Bite https://t.co/6D1Hdd0QGy
Iran is Trump's Waterloo He won’t be able to spin this as a “win,” says @RanaForoohar Oil shock + AI unwind + credit crack = a fast, market-led 20-30% correction. The K-economy masks the impact on most Americans #OilMarkets #AI #Credit #Recession
