Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Hong Kong Makers Rush Exports to Hedge Against Expected US Tariffs
Hong Kong manufacturers are front‑loading shipments to pre‑empt a likely July increase in US tariffs, while grappling with a 50% jump in long‑haul freight rates and higher diesel prices. The move reflects a reactive strategy to protect margins as geopolitical and energy shocks tighten supply‑chain costs.
Oil Prices Hit $104 as Iran Conflict Rises, Yet US Stocks Edge Higher
Brent crude rose 2.9% to $104.21 after President Donald Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was on “life support.” Despite the jump, the S&P 500 inched 0.2% to a fresh record, highlighting investors’ optimism even as higher gasoline costs pressure households.
Gold Rises with US–China Talks, MidEast Conflict in Focus
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, with spot gold reaching $4,757.59 an ounce and U.S. June futures climbing to $4,768.20. The rally was sparked by heightened attention on the upcoming U.S.–China summit and renewed tensions in the Middle East, which...
Higher Energy Prices Naturally Balance Supply and Demand
But they are already doing that by pushing for demand destruction. By telling people to work from home, reduce mobility, refiners to not buy so much oil or spend foreign exchange, or refiners not able to pass on higher input...
Import Bans Would Push Gold Prices Higher
If gold imports are banned, prices would go up no? Supply lower and demand still high? Indian gold price always higher than in Hong Kong for example because demand is higher and due to import duties.
Oil Prices Rise as Fragile US-Iran Talks Sustain Supply Worries
Oil prices nudged higher in early Asian trade as fragile U.S.-Iran cease‑fire talks kept supply worries alive. Brent crude rose 30 cents to $104.51 a barrel and WTI gained 31 cents to $98.38, after both benchmarks jumped nearly 2.8% the...
Indians Buy Gold to Hedge Inflation and Rupee Decline
Gold imports = gold purchases at lower price = higher asset value as gold has appreciated. Indians buy gold because it's a real asset and a good hedge against inflation or depreciation of rupee vs USD and vs gold.
Tariffs Hurt Consumers, Ranchers Block Trump’s Trade Gains
Worst of all worlds for Trump, tbh. Admit imports lower prices (and tariffs increase them), but don't get any actual market benefit bc of opposition from profiteering US ranchers & their GOP friends in Congress.
Gold Steady as Traders Track Strait of Hormuz Stalemate, Inflation Risks
Gold held near US$4,740 an ounce on Tuesday as traders weighed the escalating deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz, which has lifted oil prices and revived inflation worries. President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s reaction to a U.S. peace proposal as...
Zimbabwe Bans Raw Lithium Exports, Shaking Global Battery‑Metal Supply Chain
The Zimbabwean government imposed an outright ban on raw lithium ore and unrefined spodumene concentrate exports on Feb. 25, 2026, disrupting Chinese toll‑refining operations and prompting a price floor for lithium carbonate. The move, dubbed the “Zimbabwean Gambit,” forces local value‑addition...
Cheniere Energy Boosts 2026 Outlook After Record LNG Exports in Q1
Cheniere Energy lifted its full‑year 2026 EBITDA guidance to $7.25‑$7.75 billion after reporting Q1 adjusted EBITDA of more than $2.3 billion and a record 187 LNG cargoes. The company said geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East have tightened global LNG markets, reinforcing...
Physical Oil Cargo Prices Plunge 90% as Buyers Pause Ahead of US‑Iran Deal
Physical oil cargo premiums have slumped by as much as 90% in the past month, with buyers stepping back while a US‑Iran peace deal looms. The retreat follows a brief rally that saw Brent futures breach $105 a barrel, underscoring...
Food Prices Spike Again, Vegetable Oil Leads Surge
The FAO Food Price Index rose for a third straight month in April, hitting its highest level since Feb 2023. Vegetable oil prices led the surge, rising 5.9% MoM. THE US-ISRAELI WAR'S COLLATERAL DAMAGE IS MASSIVE. https://t.co/Z5NCEspTDb
Woodside Has an LNG Pricing Problem
Australia’s Woodside Energy is struggling to secure buyers for LNG from its newly commissioned Louisiana plant because it is charging higher liquefaction fees than rival U.S. exporters. Reuters, citing unnamed sources, says the pricing gap is deterring utilities and traders...
U.S. Oil Exporters Under Scrutiny
The United States has surged as a global swing supplier of energy amid the Iran war‑induced shortage, shipping 153 million tons of crude, gasoline, LNG, diesel, jet fuel and ethane from January to April 2026. That represents a 20% year‑over‑year increase...
Copper Hits Record High on Data‑Center Demand, Mine Disruption
From the Wall Street Journal: "Copper prices notched a new record high Monday, rising on strong demand for data-center construction, supply disruptions at one of the world's largest mines and surging input costs." #economy #markets #inflation #copper @wsj
Why the Oil Price Is Stable
Morgan Stanley’s latest charts show crude oil prices holding steady despite ongoing geopolitical tension. The market entered the conflict with sizable inventory buffers and continues to price in a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to the equilibrium,...
Aramco CEO Says Demand 'Rationing' Will Continue
Saudi Aramco reported a 26% jump in first‑quarter adjusted net income, reaching $33.6 billion. The profit increase came amid heightened geopolitical risk as Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit chokepoint. CEO Amin H. Nasser said...
Publication of Fastmarkets’ Steel Scrap No1 Busheling, Delivered Mill Chicago Assessment on Monday May 11, 2026
Fastmarkets published its latest No1 busheling steel scrap price for the delivered‑mill Chicago market on Monday, May 11, 2026. The price is included in the firm’s North America ferrous scrap assessment package and follows the company’s standardized methodology. The release...
Copper Scarcity Drives 77% Price Surge Since 2023
It's been three years since this fireside with @ErikSchatzker at @BloombergLive’s @QatarEconForum in 2023. The message is even truer now than it was then: copper is fundamental to the global economy and when it comes to supply, there’s just not...
Trump Reportedly to Sign Orders Aimed at Lowering Beef Prices
President Donald Trump is poised to sign two executive orders aimed at lowering beef prices for American consumers. One order would temporarily suspend the tariff‑rate quota on beef imports, effectively reducing tariffs once import volumes reach a set threshold. The...
Natural Gas Cash Markets Heat Up
U.S. natural gas cash prices rallied on Monday, with Tuesday‑delivery contracts strengthening across most regions. The surge was fueled by warmer weather forecasts, scheduled pipeline maintenance, and a sharp rally in NYMEX futures that added momentum. Despite the gains, the...
US Shale Producers Report Muted Fuel Price Impacts
U.S. shale operators say diesel price spikes from the Middle East conflict have had only a muted effect on their costs. The limited impact is attributed to a recent shift toward electric‑drive and dual‑fuel drilling rigs. These newer rigs reduce...
Soybeans, Corn, and Wheat Start the Week Higher
Soybean futures climbed for a second session, with July beans up $0.05 to $12.13 per bushel, buoyed by higher soybean oil and crude oil prices. Corn edged higher to $4.75, supported by fund buying and recent USDA export sales, while...
Market Watch: June Nymex Climbs as Forecasts Warm
June NYMEX natural‑gas futures jumped 15.3¢ to $2.91 per million British thermal units, marking a notable intraday gain. Gelber & Associates said the market still feels like a shoulder‑season but the demand mix is improving where it matters most. An...
PH Fuel Prices Still Easing Amid Uncertainty
The Philippine Department of Energy announced a further cut to diesel (‑₱9.57/L, now ₱71.19‑₱93.83/L or about $1.30‑$1.70) and kerosene (‑₱13.30/L, now ₱111.70‑₱136.70/L or about $2.02‑$2.48), while gasoline ticked up 0.47 PHP (~$0.008) per litre. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said the nation’s...
Trump Backs Suspension of US Gasoline Tax
President Donald Trump called for a suspension of the federal gasoline excise tax of 18.4¢ per gallon, arguing it would help curb soaring fuel prices as the Iran‑related oil market turmoil persists. The proposal has bipartisan backing, with Senate bills...
China's April Inflation Rises to 1.2% as Energy Costs Surge Amid Middle East Conflict
China's consumer price index rose to 1.2% year‑on‑year in April 2026, outpacing the 0.8% market forecast. The surge was powered by a 4.6% jump in transport costs as higher global oil prices, spurred by the Iran conflict, ripple through the...
Asia’s Energy Buffers Strain as Iran War Triggers $299 Billion Losses
Asia’s first‑line energy reserves are running dry as the Iran‑U.S. war keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, driving Brent crude to $120 a barrel and slashing global urea supplies by 30%. The United Nations estimates $299 bn in economic damage and...
Daily Energy Report
India’s strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) are being drawn down faster, causing a noticeable dip in the country’s crude oil inventories. Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to curb fuel use amid a Hormuz‑driven global price surge, framing the call as...
Tuesday: Eyes on Australia Budget for Household Help
The episode covers three main topics: the upcoming Australian federal budget and its potential cost‑of‑living measures, rising oil prices after Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s peace‑talks offer, and a deep‑dive on how the Middle‑East conflict threatens aluminium supply, given the region’s...
Today's Gas Prices Feel Cheaper Than Past
At $4.52 per gallon, real-terms gasoline prices are no more expensive than most of our lives. We're not driving a 1979 Oldsmobile Cutlass. A 2025 Ford F-150 is not the same fuel economy as a 2008 F-150. And people earn...
Lithium Prices Jump 24%, Signaling Commodity Supercycle
Lithium carbonate prices have SURGED over 24% in the past month, reaching their highest level since 2023. As I’ve said, "We're entering a commodity supercycle. I like lithium and vanadium.” STAY LONG or GET LONG. https://t.co/esoCtb8RoX
Crude Oil Soars As U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Remains Elusive
Crude oil prices jumped on Monday, with WTI June futures climbing to $98.75 a barrel, a 3.5% gain, after the United States rejected Iran’s proposal to end hostilities. The rejection keeps the strategic Strait of Hormuz closed, heightening supply‑risk concerns...
Trump to Slash Beef Tariffs to Curb Meat Prices
US President Donald Trump will sign an executive order to, in effect, lower tariffs on foreign beef imports as the White House struggles to reduce meat prices.
USDA to Release First Winter Wheat Estimates Amid Poor Ratings
40% of the nation's winter #wheat crop rates Poor to Very Poor this week. USDA releases its first production estimates based on actual field surveys tomorrow. #oatt https://t.co/zUENPEeYTN
Bigger Natural Gas Storage Build Ahead, but Gap to Last Year Continues to Close
Natural Gas Intelligence estimates an 86 Bcf injection for the week ending May 8, matching the five‑year average and narrowing the annual surplus to 52 Bcf, down from 75 Bcf a year earlier. The injection marks a 23 Bcf week‑over‑week rise and supports higher forward...
Markets Rally as Iran Peace Hopes Fade
JUST IN: Oil, stocks, VIX, and yields rise as hopes for an Iran peace deal plunge.
India, EU Inventories, and China Refineries Drive Oil Market
The Oil Market’s Hidden Stories: India, EU Oil Inventories, and China’s Refineries Daily Energy Report https://t.co/nprzgQ2K3f
Why June Is the Oil Market’s Point of No Return
The U.S.-Iran conflict has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 14.5 million barrels per day of Middle‑East crude and driving global oil inventories down at a record 11‑12 million barrels daily. JP Morgan warns that only 800 million barrels of the 8.4 billion‑barrel...
OPEC Output Drops to Record Low Amid Hormuz Disruption
JUST IN: OPEC oil output hits a new low in April due to Hormuz export disruption.
Cocoa Prices Surge 50% YTD Despite Recent Crash
Cocoa crashed, but it's up 50% from January... not like we ever saw a drop in chocolate prices https://t.co/2TNYkxdpnV
Permian Natural Gas Prices Surpass 2025’s Negative Run
Permian Basin natural gas prices are on track to spend a record number of days in negative territory in 2026, with the Waha hub already posting 118 negative‑price flow days. Excess production has forced shut‑ins exceeding 620 MMcf/d, highlighting a severe...
California Gas Prices Poised to Climb Past $6 per Gallon
Think $6 Gas Is Bad? It’s About to Get Even Worse in California https://t.co/9uG3o8qsPg “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.” ― H.L. Mencken
Trump Admin Unveils Two Plans to Tackle Beef Prices
The Trump administration will announce two new strategies Monday to address record beef prices and support rebuilding the domestic cattle herd, according to a @DroversCTN report. https://t.co/wSml9OdPWz
Hawke’s Bay Baker Says Wholesalers Should Be ‘Stepping up’ as Butter Prices Spike Again
Butter prices in New Zealand have jumped again, with a 500 g Woolworths block climbing from NZ$7.30 (≈$4.4 USD) to NZ$8.39 (≈$5.0 USD). Local baker Courtney Booth reports her weekly butter spend of about NZ$800 (≈$480 USD) and notes wholesalers charge roughly NZ$9 ($5.4 USD) per...
U.S. Crude Futures Rise to $98.07, Up 2.8%
JUST IN: U.S. Crude Oil Futures settled at $98.07 per barrel, up $2.65 or 2.78 percent.
Gold Ticks Lower Amid Increasing Oil-Driven Inflation Concerns After U.S. Rejects Iran's Peace Plan
Gold edged lower on Monday, slipping 0.01% to $4,730.50 per ounce after the United States dismissed Iran's counter‑proposal to a peace plan, reigniting oil‑driven inflation concerns. Silver surged 6.5% to $85.84 per ounce as investors shifted toward risk‑on assets. The...
Fastmarkets Extends Consultation on Proposal to Launch Price Assessment for Tungsten Unwrought Metal Bar, CIF Main Ports Europe, US, Japan
Fastmarkets has extended the consultation on its proposed price assessment for unwrought tungsten metal bars to May 26, with a decision slated for May 29. The new index would price 99.8% pure tungsten bars on a CIF basis to major ports in...
Real Gasoline Prices Are (Relatively) Low; Gas Prices Are Rising Sharply
Real gasoline prices are low in inflation‑adjusted terms, yet they have surged sharply, rising about 23% from February to April 2024. This jump exceeds the month‑on‑month growth seen after the 2022 Russian‑invasion price spike and the pre‑Great Recession surge. Retail...