Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees to modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision as the conflict in the Middle East constrains output and shipments. Delegates said the move signals alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Also developing:
Indian Oil Corp (IOCL) rolled back an initially announced 100% hike in aviation turbine fuel (ATF) for domestic airlines, setting the price at ₹1,04,927 per kilolitre (≈ $1,260), about an 8.5% rise from March. The ministry limited the increase to a 25% (₹15 per litre) partial rise for scheduled flights, leaving the full hike applicable only to non‑scheduled charter flights. At the same time, commercial LPG cylinder prices jumped roughly ₹200 (≈ $2.4) to ₹2,078.5 in Delhi, while premium petrol, diesel and Shell’s retail fuels also saw modest hikes. The moves come as Brent crude hovers around $102 per barrel and Saudi LPG contracts surge to $780 per tonne, prompting concerns over airline margins and broader inflation.
Facor’s ferro-chrome auction drew sharply higher bids as tight Indian spot supply pushed prices above base levels. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/indian-ferro-chrome-auction-prices-rise.html
Good morning China 🇨🇳 At open on Wednesday, 4/1 SGE #Silver traded at RMB18957.0/kg ($85.484/Troy oz) Spot #Silver is $75.189/Troy oz SGE premium at 13.7% over spot
The war in the Middle East has pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel, threatening diesel‑dependent Pacific economies. Fiji could see its imported fuel bill jump $670 million by 2025—about three times its annual healthcare budget—while Vanuatu faces a potential $120 million...
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Since the US-Israeli war on Iran started, India’s oil imports from Russia have nearly doubled. Good news. IT’S A SIGN THAT THE ILL-CONCEIVED SANCTIONS REGIME IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN. https://t.co/XzP5Xxh83g
Oil from the Gulf that has been in transit to its destinations is about to dry up. Then, there will be a crunch. Paul Krugman employs standard econ arithmetic to end up with a price range of $99/BBL to 372/BBL, depending...
Singapore’s Energy Market Authority will raise household electricity tariffs by 2.1% to S$0.56 /kWh (about $0.41) and the overall tariff by 2.0% to S$0.52 /kWh (≈$0.38) from 1 April to 30 June 2026. The average monthly bill for a four‑room HDB flat rises S$1.80 (≈$1.33)...
POLL: Has the June WTI crude oil futures contract peaked? ($104 on March 9th, $99 last night, $94 currently)
Rising oil prices and heightened US‑Iran tensions caused South Korea’s KOSPI to plunge 4.3% and Japan’s Nikkei to tumble more than 2% on March 31, wiping out the region’s 2026 rally. The sell‑off spread to the MSCI Asia Pacific index,...
Even if oil flows recover, refineries are the real squeeze, says Macquarie's Vikas Dwivedi Refinery run cuts have tightened product supply. It will take 4-6 weeks to recover after Hormuz opens to full transit. And there's uncertainty about refinery damage.
Australia’s east‑coast gas market is projected to face tight supply conditions during the winter months of Q3 2026, according to the ACCC’s interim gas inquiry report. The balance could swing between a 12 PJ shortfall and a 3 PJ surplus, largely dependent on...
JUST IN: Brent crude oil futures surged 60% in March, delivering the biggest monthly gain ever.
In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Grant Sporer breaks down the physical supply chains of copper and gold, explaining mining, processing, and tradable forms while highlighting the dominant role of China in copper smelting. He contrasts copper’s industrial demand—driven by...
Thai food exports are projected to fall 7.3% year‑on‑year to 1.4 trillion baht (about $39 billion), potentially hitting a five‑year low. The first quarter is expected to plunge 11.5% to 306 billion baht ($8.6 billion) as Middle‑East conflicts disrupt Gulf shipments and re‑exports via...
Crude oil futures ended March with a modest daily decline but posted robust monthly gains, driven by heightened geopolitical tension. The ongoing war in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have constrained supply and...
On March 31, 2026, global crude oil prices edged higher, with Brent crude closing near $85 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) around $80. The rise reflected OPEC+’s decision to extend voluntary output cuts and a modest draw...
Chile reported its lowest monthly copper output in almost nine years, producing 378,554 metric tons in February 2026 – an 8.5% decline from January and 4.8% lower than a year earlier. The drop marks the smallest monthly figure since a...
May natural‑gas futures slipped slightly, closing at $2.884 per million British thermal units after peaking at $2.977 on Tuesday. Analysts attribute the dip to record U.S. production and a seasonal warming trend. Demand estimates show residential and commercial consumption at...
Energy Intelligence’s March 31 roundup highlights a resurgence of LNG development, with Polar LNG unveiling a near‑shore liquefaction plant on Alaska’s North Slope—an idea dismissed in 2018. Egypt is accelerating upstream gas projects to relieve a regional supply crunch, while...
The article highlights that front‑month Brent and WTI futures have moved in lockstep since 2022, underscoring a highly integrated global oil market. It rebuts former President Trump’s claim that U.S. oil prices consistently diverge from world prices, labeling the view...
With the Hormuz Strait all but closed, the crude oil futures curve is back to the backwardation levels of the first few days of the conflict. The front contract is about $23 higher than the 9th contract, indicating that the...
U.S. average gasoline prices rose above $4 a gallon for the first time in nearly four years, prompting S&P 500 futures to jump 1.1% and Nasdaq futures 1%. Traders are weighing the inflationary impact against hopes of de‑escalation in the...
With only one ship passing through the Strait last week, the oil curve has remained heavily backwardated. Looking at the correlations below, we see that gold and bonds have been positively correlated (with both under pressure), and Bitcoin and the...
In this episode, Argus senior reporter Denise Cheng talks with ammonia market editor Roof Sharp about the launch of Argus' new China FOB ammonia price assessment and the shifting dynamics of China's ammonia trade. China, once a major importer, is...
USDA forecasts sorghum planting at 6.12 million acres for 2026, an 8 % decline from 2025. The drop reflects drought impacts in the Plains, with Kansas acreage cut by 10 % and Texas also seeing reductions. Conversely, South Dakota’s sorghum area jumps 53 %...
Macquarie’s strategy team says copper is oversupplied and overpriced after a 1.5% drop to $5.47 per pound, roughly $12,000 a tonne. The metal has shed more than 16% – about $2,400 per tonne – from its January peak. The bank...
New York Harbor briefly became a net diesel exporter as traders shifted ultra‑low sulfur diesel (ULSD) shipments to Europe. A sharp rise in northwest European jet fuel prices created a price arbitrage window, flipping the usual discount relationship between European...
The USDA projects 50.113 million acres of hay will be harvested in 2026, a 1% increase over 2025, suggesting a modest boost in national supply. State‑level data reveal mixed trends: Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin expand acreage, while Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska...
The latest Daily Energy Report shows Iran remains the primary crude exporter through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar have halted shipments entirely. Saudi Arabia has rerouted most of its oil to the Red Sea, and the...
A month into this war: Iran is still exporting oil & to more customers Iran is making more money for its oil because prices are up Iran has effectively installed a tollbooth to enter and exit the Persian Gulf Russia is making more...
U.S. gas market insulated from war in the Middle East U.S. gas inventories are on course to finish the winter close to the average for the time of year, which has sent futures prices back below $3 per million British thermal...
Gold surged 2.6% on Tuesday, pushing COMEX June futures to $4,676.40 an ounce, while silver jumped 6.3% to $75.30. The rally followed Wall Street Journal reports that President Donald Trump is considering a diplomatic path to end the Gulf conflict...
Gas prices in north Aurora, CO along Tower Rd have relaxed to $3.61-3.64 after hitting $3.97 last week.
Extremely Low Positioning: Both #COMEX and #SHFE #silver open interest are currently trading at the very bottom of their historical ranges
BofA: Risk assets rallied today on the potential resolution of the Iran war. President Trump stated that the US “won’t be there” to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz Oil prices are less enthusiastic https://t.co/qqPBVmhvPG
Higher LNG prices also putting LNG terminals at risk. There's upside and downside here. To the extent that these were driving coal -> gas switching, more downside than up. But if coal is also constrained, would boost renewables.
If Hormuz remains close the price of oil and refined products could rise to $200, $250, $300 per barrel or any number.
Prices at the pump? UK running out of fuel? What should the government and the public do in the face of the US-Israel/Iran energy crisis? https://t.co/dVMIfX1kI1 via @Channel4News with @mattfrei
I can’t believe the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for four weeks. It seems like so much longer than that. Scarcely do I remember the last time petrochemicals, urea, helium and other fundamental components could safely transit to key...
Brent crude prompt futures price, Iran-War-to-date. Up just shy of $50 per barrel over the past month. https://t.co/SERzQ38Bos
#BrentOil Comp Doji Candle and Sideways. Needs Breakout $112.1. Support $100, $91.8, $84. RSI 71.5 Overbought but can go higher. Top Bollinger Band $111.6. Midpoint Line $102.5. Bottom Band $93.6.
China can still buy Iranian oil, but every barrel now comes with higher military risk, higher shipping costs, and the threat of sanctions or interdiction. What was once a quiet $8 to $12 discount trade is now a fragile, contested...
The EU will consider reopening a set energy measures used after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the bloc seeks to contain a fresh price shock tied to the Iran war https://t.co/pGEqjvd4Uf via @johnainger https://t.co/oxM0l6weH8
Q1 lesson: Cuts → Hikes. Stable oil → $112. Safe → Risky. Narratives flip faster than positioning. If you're still running January's thesis in Q2, you're not wrong in theory. You're just wrong in the market that actually exists. --- https://t.co/c8qhOLV3nI
China has exported cargoes of diesel and other fuels to energy-starved countries across Southeast Asia over the weekend, in what appears to be a signal of support despite export curbs imposed earlier this month https://t.co/Ho2QuntmBc
🌽Remarkable to compare expectations and outcomes for U.S. corn acres, March 2025 versus March 2026. Almost a straight copy+paste in all columns..... https://t.co/HT5yWSIhC3
LNG production in Qatar, normally ~80 mm tonnes, has been effectively OFFLINE since March 2. The new Golden Pass LNG export terminal in the U.S. will add only 18mm tonnes at full capacity. NEW SUPPLY CAN’T OFFSET WAR-DRIVEN LOSSES. https://t.co/tVmip8DsaM
$CL WTI pre-market: $101.84. $BNO Brent: $108. Iran demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. That's not a negotiating position. It's a non-starter — and everyone knows it. The war premium is permanent until proven otherwise. --- https://t.co/DwGuXTrsgJ
U.S. cotton plantings came in larger than expected and above 2025's area. All small grain plantings came in below expectations. https://t.co/QomfLCsn7M
U.S. wheat plantings come in lower than analysts expected across all categories. 2026 all wheat acres are set to hit an all-time low in records back to 1919. Spring wheat acres are seen at a 56-year low. https://t.co/EX4kMnksdH
