Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Mosaic to Scale Back US Phosphate Production over High Input Costs
Mosaic, the largest U.S. phosphate producer, announced it will halve output at its Faustina, Louisiana, and Bartow, Florida plants due to soaring sulfuric acid prices, a key input for monoammonium phosphate. The curtailment trims U.S. production by roughly 3.4 million tons, undermining the Biden administration’s goal of boosting domestic fertilizer supplies. Mosaic also paused expansion in Brazil and warned that global phosphate supply could fall short of demand, especially as China limits exports. The company says the cuts are temporary and will be reversed once sulfur markets stabilize.
Japan's SPR Draw Outpaces US at 1.5 MMbpd
Between the end of March and beginning of May, Japan drew down crude stocks—mostly its SPR—at a rate of ~1.5 million barrels per day. Japan's SPR releases started much more quickly than the US' and that 1.5 MMbpd *average* draw rate...
Indian Oil Marketers Flag Strait of Hormuz Disruption as Top Boardroom Risk Amid $105 Brent Spike
India’s state‑run oil marketing companies disclosed under‑recoveries of roughly ₹1 lakh crore ($1.2 bn) after Brent crude surged to $105 a barrel, prompting senior executives to elevate Strait of Hormuz disruptions to a primary risk‑management focus. The move underscores a broader shift toward...
Egypt Unveils Plan to Boost Phosphate Output and Expand Fertiliser Exports
Egypt's Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouli announced a government‑led initiative to raise phosphate output and move from raw ore exports to value‑added fertiliser production. The plan targets domestic demand and a larger share of international markets, leveraging scientific research and international...
Natural Gas Futures Sustain Intraday Momentum as Summer Demand Nears, War Endures
Natural gas futures continued their intraday rally as the market priced in a hotter summer and persistent geopolitical tension. Prices rose roughly 3% to around $2.55 per million British thermal units, reflecting tighter European storage and higher U.S. demand for...
Silver Price Jumps to Two-Week High Despite US-Iran Deadlock
Spot silver surged 7% to nearly $86 per ounce, hitting a two‑month high despite a deadlock in US‑Iran peace talks. Gold edged up about 0.4% as investors weighed the geopolitical tension and broader macro data. Technical analysis shows silver breaking...
Spain's Wholesale Power Prices Hit €44/MWh, Making It Europe’s Cheapest Market
Spain's wholesale electricity price averaged €44 per megawatt-hour (about $48) in the first four months of 2026, undercutting Italy, Germany and the UK. The drop reflects a rapid shift from gas to wind and solar, with gas‑driven plants setting the...
Geopolitical Tensions Set to Spike Energy and Metal Prices, Analysts Warn
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett says commodities will be the biggest trade of the next five years as fresh explosions near Iran’s Strait of Hormuz and a tense US‑China summit raise supply‑risk fears. The events have already pushed West...
South Korea’s Kospi Sets New Record as Oil Prices Surge Amid Iran‑U.S. Tensions
South Korea’s benchmark Kospi opened 3.67% higher to a fresh all‑time high, buoyed by a jump in Brent crude to $105.7 per barrel. The rally unfolded as President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s latest peace proposal, reviving geopolitical risk premia across...
The Permian Pipeline Buildout Reaches Critical Mass
Natural gas production in the Permian Basin has doubled since 2018, reaching 25.4 billion cubic feet per day and representing 22% of U.S. marketed gas. Takeaway capacity has lagged, driving deep discounts at the Waha hub and occasional negative pricing. Three...
Aramco CEO’s Bombshell Warning Exposes the Fragile State of Global Energy Markets
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned on the first‑quarter earnings call that the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly one billion barrels of oil from the market and could keep global supplies tight for years. He said...
Silver Prices Becomes Increasingly Volatile To The Upside - Production Impaired Globally
Silver prices have surged with pronounced volatility over the past week, reflecting growing market tension. Analysts link the rally to a looming supply crunch as sulfuric acid shortages disrupt copper and other base‑metal mines that generate roughly a quarter of...
Iran War Chokes ‘Major Driver’ of Global Economy
The U.S. war in Iran has choked the Strait of Hormuz, trapping roughly 15 million barrels of crude and 5 million barrels of petroleum products each day. The resulting supply squeeze pushed U.S. diesel prices 60 percent higher than a year ago, the...
Why California’s Soft Natural Gas Prices May Not Last
California’s natural‑gas prices, among the nation’s lowest, are under pressure as expanding LNG export capacity, rising western power demand, and shifting pipeline flows tighten regional supply. The SoCal Citygate and PG&E Citygate benchmarks have historically lagged the Henry Hub, but...
Bulls Gaining Edge in ‘Tug of War’ as Natural Gas Trying to Break Through Resistance
Natural gas June futures are testing a key technical resistance, with prices probing the upper Bollinger Band. Production outlook remains bearish and LNG export constraints are dampening market sentiment. Forecasts show rising summer heat, adding demand pressure. The market is...
Institutions Bet $22M on Copper Supercycle by 2026
Big money just spoke loud and clear on the LME. A monster Sept ’26 15,500–17,000 call spread traded in 5,500 lots for roughly $22 million in premium. That’s not retail noise, that’s institutional conviction betting copper is heading significantly higher by late...
Jean-Hugues De Lamaze: Is Hormuz the New Fukushima?
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has halted roughly a quarter of global oil output and significant LNG volumes, creating the worst energy shock on record, according to the IEA. The disruption mirrors the systemic shock of Fukushima but...
Going Industrial. Manic Metals Report 05/11/2026
The Manic Metals Report shows industrial metals such as copper and aluminum surged after a robust jobs report and strong manufacturing data signaled a resilient U.S. economy. Meanwhile, gold and silver gained as oil prices slipped, reaffirming the classic inverse...
The Daily: Hormuz Holds, Oil Climbs, and AI Keeps Leading
Oil prices surged above $100 as the Hormuz deadlock deepened, reigniting inflation and rate pressures worldwide. AI infrastructure spending remains a growth engine, highlighted by over $10 billion of demand for Cerebras Systems ahead of a potential IPO price hike. The...
Silver Surges as Demand Outpaces Constrained Supply
Oops. I was told the silver bubble burst two months ago and that it was never coming back. That view failed to understand a simple reality: Commodities never peak when structural demand is rising while both current and future supply remain heavily constrained. Classic...
Copper Shrugs Off Middle East Uncertainty to Eye Record High
Copper is approaching its highest ever close, trading around $13,730 per ton on the LME, as broader base‑metal prices rise despite the US‑Iran standoff. Tight supply, declining Chinese inventories, and strong demand from clean‑tech exports are driving the rally. Analysts...
India State Refiners Eye Modest Fuel Price Hike
Indian state‑owned refiners are poised to raise retail diesel and gasoline prices by about 5 rupees per litre (≈$0.05) in the coming days. The modest increase is intended to offset an estimated daily loss of 10 billion rupees ($105 million) caused by...
Brent Futures Slightly Below Dated Brent, No Major Dislocation
Prompt Brent futures are currently $103/bbl, while latest Dated Brent quote is at $105/bbl. Hardly the stuff of acute dislocation. World is in a record supply deficit, though at this stage market still choosing to be more patient re: accumulating the consequences...
Rising Gold Prices Reshape Engagement Ring Market as Material Value Dynamics Shift
New research from 77 Diamonds shows that soaring gold prices have cut jewelry‑sector gold demand by more than 23% in Q1 2026, even as overall global gold demand rose 2.1% year‑on‑year. Gold prices jumped 16.2% quarter‑over‑quarter, making newly produced gold rings less...
Iran War Fuels Energy Shock, Raising Fed Rate Uncertainty as Analysts Warn of Delays or Hikes
The Iran war has driven diesel prices up 56%, inflating the U.S. trucking fuel bill from $155 billion to $250 billion and triggering a 14‑point swing in earnings‑estimate revisions. Analysts say the energy shock could force the Federal Reserve to postpone rate...
Oil Rally Lures Shale Independent, but Majors Unswayed
Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel amid Middle East supply disruptions, prompting a mixed response from U.S. producers. Diamondback Energy announced a 3% output lift to over 520,000 barrels per day and plans to add 2‑3 rigs, signaling a...
K+S Group Posts €156.9 Million Q1 Loss as Potash Prices Slide
K+S Group posted a €156.9 million (≈$170 million) loss after tax for Q1 2026, driven by weakening potash prices and an oversupplied market. Revenue rose to €1.06 billion, but the price slump erased earnings gains, signaling stress in the global fertilizer sector.
India's Sensex Drops 1,082 Points as Oil Prices Surge and Modi Calls for Austerity
The BSE Sensex slid 1,082 points (about $13.2 bn) and the NSE Nifty fell 309 points as Brent crude breached $105 per barrel and Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to curb fuel, gold and foreign travel. The sell‑off erased roughly...
Current Price of Oil as of May 11, 2026
Oil prices rose to $107.67 per barrel for Brent crude on May 11, 2026, up 48 cents from the previous day and roughly $43 higher than a year ago. The increase reflects tightening global supply, OPEC+ output decisions, and robust U.S. shale...
China Drives Platinum Surge, Prompting South African Production Boost
China is pulling platinum into the country hard. A major Chinese refiner reports surging physical delivery demand on the new Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum contract. Speculators and industrial users are opting for delivery rather than closing shorts, capturing the premium over...
Competitive Power Markets Have Delivered. Abandoning Them Would Be a Mistake.
Competitive wholesale electricity markets, exemplified by PJM, have spurred billions in private generation investment and created a 40% surplus in Pennsylvania, while Virginia’s vertically integrated model leaves it the nation’s largest electricity importer. The author argues that rising power prices...
4 Big Energy Stories - 5.11.2026: Stop This Madness, Please
Oil prices jumped on Monday after President Donald Trump labeled Iran’s latest peace‑proposal response unacceptable, reigniting supply concerns as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. Brent crude rose $2.70 to $103.99 a barrel and U.S. WTI climbed $2.24 to...
Elasticity Holds Crude, Corn Prices; Copper Vulnerable to Market Swings
Crude, Corn, Copper vs. Primary Forces of Elasticity, Dependency Elasticity is a top force that has kept the primary energy and agriculture commodities -- crude oil and corn -- under price pressure for decades, and 2026 is a good test. Ample...
Saudi MAP Shipment Departs; Eight Phosphate Ships Await
Incase you are wondering how the global fertilizer crisis is shaping up - the 2nd Saudi cargo of MAP just left the Persian Gulf for Brazil since the end of Feb. There are 8 ships loaded w/phosphates waiting. https://t.co/MjbR9M1Cx7
Correction to Zircon, Premium Grade, 66.5% ZrO2 Min, Bulk, Cif China, Price on May 7: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets corrected its price assessment for premium‑grade zircon (66.5% ZrO₂ minimum) CIF China, originally posted at $1,600‑$1,700 per tonne. The accurate range is $1,600‑$1,670 per tonne, and the pricing database has been updated. The correction is part of Fastmarkets’ industrial...
Trump Opens Beef Imports to Curb Soaring Prices
Imports (and tariff cuts) to the rescue, AGAIN: "Trump Clears Way for More Beef Imports, Aiming to Bring Down Record-High Prices" https://t.co/PrVADPxrF7 https://t.co/WqLArEHL6p
Record Diesel Prices Threaten Truckers, SMEs, and Consumers
If diesel hits an all time record? What will it do to trucking? Especially owner operators? And to supply chains? Especially SMEs? And consumers?
Goldman Sachs Lifts 2026 Nickel Forecast on Supply Squeeze
May 11 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 average nickel price forecast to $18,500 per metric ton from $17,200 on Monday, citing tighter Indonesian supply due to reduced ore quota allocations and sulfur shortages.
Corn Dominates Export Inspections, Far Ahead of Others
Export inspections for the week ending May 7 (mln bu): #corn 66.6, grain sorghum 3.1, #soybeans 24.1, #wheat 18.8 #oatt
China's Fertilizer Exports Surge in April Despite Controls
China's fertilizer exports jumped in April which is not what you'd have expected given exports controls were imposed in ~late March. That's good news for farmers though
Kharg Island Sees Longest Tanker‑free Stretch Since War’s Start
Kharg Island update: @CopernicusEU satellite imagery shows no supertanker loadings on May 8, May 9 and May 11 (we don't have data for May 10 from either Sentinel 1 or Sentinel-2 🛰️). It looks like the longest stretch without loadings...
Price Controls Temporarily Bridge Futures‑Physical Gap, Then Collapse
Another way to say "disconnect between futures & physical" is "price controls." Price controls work for a while...until they don't.
Silver Returns to Daily Uptrend with Higher Highs
silver (right) is back in a short-term/daily uptrend with higher highs and higher lows on the chart... https://t.co/6dR69hG8lT
Oil Shifts From Inflation Gauge to Geopolitical Fragility Signal
Higher oil prices used to signal market tightness Now they signal system disorder Oil is evolving from an inflation-growth indicator to a geopolitical fragility indicator #OilMarkets #WTI #OVX #Volatility #Energy #Geopolitics #IranWar #UkraineWar #Commodities #Macro #SystemicRisk #TrumpTariffs
Industrial Metals Surge as Data Center Demand Rises
You can't build all those data centers without industrial metals. The Bloomberg Industrial Metals index closed Friday at the highest level since June 2022. Included in this are aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc and lead. https://t.co/SSMF2A8lms
USDA Confirms 380k Tons to Mexico, 128k to South Korea
USDA confirms the following U.S. corn export sales: ▪️380,000 metric tons to Mexico (220kt in 2025/26 and 160kt in 2026/27) ▪️128,000 tons to South Korea in 2025/26
Markets Overestimate Rate Cut; Stay Cautious on Pumps
Markets are pricing in Kevin Warsh like he's going to cut rates on day one. He can't. Oil is $105 and CPI is still 3.7%. The committee won't move. Be very careful chasing pumps in this market.
Yield vs Oil: Diverging Trends on 3-Day Tick Chart
3-day tick chart ... * White (right scale), U.S. 10-year yield * Blue (left scale), June WTI Crude Oil Futures What is the difference? https://t.co/nwUGdEL9j4
Fertilizer Giant Shows War‑Driven Price Surge Amid Supply Chain Chaos
Major US fertilizer company...whose end market product's price is SOARING as a result of the war...and yet 👇. "Supply Chain Breaks 101" class just started; take good notes, the lessons contained in this earnings release will be on the final...
China Hikes Gas to $5/Gallon, Pumps Stay Calm
#China raised gas prices on May 8 to $4.99/gallon nationally. In Beijing, price at the pump is now $5.15/gallon. No long lines at the pump as there were in the earlier days of the Iran war though. My visit to...