Today's Commodities Pulse
Updated 3h ago
Oil breaches $100 as US readies Hormuz blockade, Goldman Sachs profits surge
Brent crude climbed to $102.31 per barrel as the United States prepared a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation pushed WTI above $100, reigniting concerns over supply disruptions. Goldman Sachs reported a 48% jump in investment‑banking fees, posting a net profit of $5.63 bn for Q1.
Iran War Triggers Biggest Gas Price Jump in Six Decades, Fueling U.S. Inflation Surge
U.S. gasoline prices leapt 21% in March, the largest monthly increase in six decades, as the Iran war disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The surge drove consumer inflation to 3.3% year‑over‑year, raising concerns for the Federal Reserve and energy‑intensive industries.
GasBuddy Warns $4 Gas May Not Be the Ceiling
U.S. gasoline prices topped $4 per gallon on April 8, reaching a $4.16 national average—the highest level since summer 2022. The surge stems from a U.S.–Iran conflict that crippled Strait of Hormuz traffic, pushing West Texas Intermediate crude to about $113 per...
Here's What the Futures Markets Are Saying About Oil and the Conflict in the Persian Gulf
Oil futures are trading in backwardation, indicating near‑term supply concerns as the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed. Roughly 34 % of global crude normally passes through the strait, and the curve suggests traders view the disruption as temporary. The market’s...
Metal Shock: Gulf's Largest Aluminum Producer Declares Force Majeure
Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the Gulf’s largest aluminium producer, has declared force majeure on portions of its contract book after Iranian missile and drone strikes damaged its Al Taweelah smelter, forcing a shutdown. The outage removes roughly 4% of global aluminium...
Energy Crunch Tightens Cotton Outlook
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven oil prices higher, inflating energy costs for cotton growers and mills. The USDA now projects global cotton output to drop by roughly 3.9 million bales in the 2026/27 season. Rising energy expenses have...
U.S. Oil Production Increases Vulnerability to Price Shocks
Being a top producer doesn’t insulate the U.S. from oil shocks It amplifies exposure. Oil is priced globally, and the U.S. economy is more oil-intensive than its peers, so higher prices hit harder. Those who think the US is less affected are...
U.S. Inflation Jumps as Gas Prices Surge Amid Iran Conflict
Consumer prices climbed 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the biggest annual rise since May 2024, as gasoline surged 21% amid the Iran war’s impact on oil markets. The spike sharpens pressure on the Federal Reserve and raises near‑term cost burdens for...
Iran War Triggers Strait Toll, Helium Shortage and 20% U.S. Gas Spike, Stoking Global Inflation
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a new toll regime and choking oil‑linked supply chains. Helium shipments from Qatar, India’s LPG imports and U.S. gasoline prices have all surged, driving U.S. inflation up...
India's Hormuz Dependence Exceeds Global Average, Raising Energy Security Concerns
India's import routes for crude oil, natural gas and especially LPG rely on the Strait of Hormuz at rates higher than the global average, exposing a strategic vulnerability. Officials say diversification of supply sources and domestic gas expansion are under...
FTSE 100 Holds Near‑Flat as UK Investors Await US‑Iran Peace Talks
The FTSE 100 ended Friday at 10,603.48, down just 5.4 points (‑0.05%), as investors in the UK stayed on the sidelines pending U.S.–Iran diplomatic talks. Energy and utility stocks led the modest gains while broader caution kept the benchmark near...
Oil Prices Could Race Past $150 as Ceasefire in ‘Difficult Phase’
Oil analysts at Kpler warn that Brent crude could surge past $150 per barrel if the flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained as the US‑Iran ceasefire enters a difficult phase. Brent currently trades around $94, reflecting...
At $3.39 a Litre, Australia’s Fuel Relief Still Falls 153 Cents Short
Diesel prices in regional Australia have surged to A$3.39 per litre (about US$2.24), far exceeding the federal government’s three‑month fuel relief promise of a 58.7‑cent (≈US$0.39) saving. Even after the Road User Charge is removed and the fuel excise is...
Capstone Ends Strike, Boosts Output Amid Tight 2026 Copper Market
Capstone ended the Mantoverde strike and began ramping output as copper markets stay tight in 2026. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/capstone-mantoverde-strike-ends-as.html
Americans May Be Stuck with $4 Gas for a While
U.S. drivers are now accustomed to paying around $4 per gallon as the Iran‑Israel conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz largely closed. A two‑week cease‑fire was announced, but shipping firms still deem the waterway too risky, limiting oil tanker traffic...
Energy‑GDP Link Means Hormuz Blockade Threatens Global Economy
Here is what data tells over 50 years of my tracking. Energy and world GDP track perfectly 1:1. Full shock incoming if Hormuz still stays choked. War not only risks global shortages, but exposes the fragility we’ve ignored. More information in the...
‘Cancelling Orders’ in China: How Hormuz Oil Crisis Is Hitting Transport, Manufacturing
The reopening and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven Brent crude to $100‑$105 a barrel, inflating fuel and petroleum‑based raw material costs for Chinese manufacturers. Higher freight rates—up to four times normal—are prompting firms to delay or...
Fuel Shortages From Iran War Threaten Asia’s Biggest Food Staple
The six‑week war in Iran has driven diesel and fertilizer prices sharply higher, choking the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting imports of key agricultural inputs to Southeast Asia. Rice farmers in Thailand, the Philippines, Cambodia and Vietnam face doubled or...
Tribal Gas Stations Offer a Reprieve From High Prices During Iran War
Tribal convenience stores with gas pumps are drawing price‑sensitive drivers as the Iran war pushes national gasoline prices above $4 per gallon. Because tribes are exempt from state fuel taxes, many stations sell gasoline $0.50‑$0.75 cheaper than nearby competitors, with...
Two‑Month Hormuz Reopening Too Late for Global Economy
Two months: that’s how long it might be before the Strait of Hormuz opens and resumes transit akin to before the war (from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett). Translation: We F’d up so bad and had zero plans to deal...
Saudi Oil Output, Exports Hit After Attacks on Energy Infrastructure
Saudi Arabia reported that recent attacks on key energy infrastructure knocked out more than 600,000 barrels per day of oil production and slashed East‑West pipeline flows by roughly 700,000 barrels per day. The offshore Manifa field and onshore Khurais complex...
Russia Targets 10.3 M Bpd Oil Output in 2026, Novak Says
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters Russia will lift oil output to 515 million metric tons in 2026 – about 10.3 million barrels per day – up from 512 million tons in 2025. The forecast comes as Moscow seeks to boost domestic...
ASX 200 Dips 0.14% to 8,960.6 as Oil Price Rebound Pressures Tech Stocks
The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.14% to 8,960.6 on Friday as crude oil prices rebounded toward $97 a barrel, dragging down technology shares. Energy stocks rose modestly, and investors remain wary of the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East and its...
Anglo Cuts 2026 Copper Outlook Amid Lower Collahuasi Grades
Anglo cut 2026 copper guidance as lower ore grades at Collahuasi weaken Chilean production expectations. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/anglo-2026-copper-guidance-falls-as.html
Oil Futures Lag Behind Spot Prices Amid Supply Shock
From The New York Times : “The futures and spot prices are rarely exactly the same, but the gap between them has grown unusually big in the past few weeks, so much so that oil executives and analysts say futures prices...
Oil Posts Biggest Weekly Loss Since 2020 Ahead of Iran-US Talks
Oil prices slipped sharply as the market digested the prospect of Iran‑U.S. talks. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.3% to below $97 a barrel, while weekly futures dropped 13.4%, marking the steepest decline since 2020. Prices remain over 30% above pre‑conflict...
US-Israeli Conflict Severely Disrupts Gulf Fertil
Fertilizer flows from the Gulf continue to be disrupted. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR DAMAGE. https://t.co/jiYKxSmV7U
Steady Lithium Price Rise Preferred Despite Deficit
Mr @Sw197843: Yes, the deficit is here but don’t expect an explosion too soon. A slow & steady price rise is the best thing for #lithium. https://t.co/4cJkLGIYRb
Bigger Diesel Price Cut if Middle East Truce Holds
The Philippines may see a larger diesel price cut of P5.50‑P6.50 per litre (about $0.10‑$0.12) next week if the Middle‑East cease‑fire endures. The cut follows double‑digit fuel price spikes that pushed diesel above P170/L ($3.10) and gasoline up 54‑72%. The...
Oil's $100 Benchmark Marks Beginning of Further Gains
The oil markets have seen a 15% correction. However, oil at $100 is the start. It's likely to go higher in the coming years. A must-watch video from @JoshYoung: https://t.co/mq89LrvTON
Ceasefire News Drops Oil Futures, Defying Shortage Expectations
There was lots of talk how acute "physical" shortage in the spot market would pull up futures prices of oil. That turned out to be totally wrong. News of a ceasefire pulled down futures, which in turn pulled down spot...
Crude Prices Dip Ahead of 'All-Or-Nothing' US-Iran Talks
Crude oil futures fell modestly on Friday as markets awaited a high‑stakes diplomatic meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan. The talks, described as “all‑or‑nothing,” aim to secure a lasting end to the Middle East conflict that has been...
US Extends Russian Oil Waiver Amid Iran War Shock
US likely to extend Russian oil waiver to temper Iran war shock, sources say https://t.co/0Xr3HV1riR
Governments Subsidize Oil for Bottom 70% Starting 27th
Governments around the world are providing subsidies to help mitigate impact of higher energy prices. Such efforts counter recessionary pressures, but to what extent and for how long? Government Launches High Oil Price Support for Bottom 70% Starting 27th https://t.co/EWO71DrdHN
China to Ban Sulfuric Acid Exports as War Hits Supply
China announced a ban on sulfuric acid exports starting in May, targeting acid produced as a by‑product of copper and zinc smelting. The restriction follows supply disruptions caused by the Iran‑Israel war, which has choked sulfur shipments from the Middle...
WA Households Miss Negative Pricing, Boosting Solar‑battery Push
In Western Australia, domestic customers don't have access to negative pricing events - because? @SynergyEnergy How about it @RogerCookMLA - a further incentive to put solar into batteries - and into batteries on wheels?
Central Banks' Gold Reserves Now Surpass US Dollar Holdings
JUST IN: Central banks' gold reserves hit a record $3.87 trillion, topping adjusted US Dollar reserves at $3.73 trillion by $140 billion, as gold assets tripled since 2022 while USD reserves fell $300 billion due to geopolitical tensions.
Gulf Allays Concerns over LNG Supplies
Gulf Development Plc, Thailand’s largest energy firm, said its LNG supply remained stable despite recent spot‑price spikes caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure and disruptions in Qatar’s exports. The company has diversified its gas purchases, notably sourcing from Nigeria,...
Rising Costs Force Southeast Asian Rice Farmers to Skip Planting
The war in the Middle East hits food staples ⚠️ 🌾 Rice farmers in Southeast Asia are deciding to skip planting for the next season due to rising fuel & fertilizer costs Some Thai farmers are leaving the crop in the ground...
US Industrials Set to Boom as Gas Prices Plunge
Natural gas drives the US industrial economy, not oil. US natural gas prices are -20% since the Iran war broke out. This will be tremendous for US industrials. https://t.co/4k1zWGD9Ix
Near-Record Storage, Early Snowmelt Hammer Western Gas Demand
An unusually warm winter has driven gas inventories across the western United States to near‑record levels, with storage now approaching 96% of historical capacity. The rapid snowmelt has also depleted the region’s snowpack, reducing hydroelectric generation by roughly 30% earlier...
US Industry Relies on Natural Gas, Now 20% Cheaper
For the most part, the US industrial segment runs on natural gas, not oil. And US natural gas prices have dropped by 20% since March 1st.
Oil Headlines Mislead; Brent Stuck Near $100
I can’t be the only one who sees these headlines day in and day out yet sees Brent crude struggle to hold $100/barrel and thinks there must be magic supplies of oil out there somehow.
Market View: US Gas Futures Tumble to 18-Month Low
U.S. natural‑gas futures dropped to an 18‑month trough this week as seasonal demand weakened during the shoulder months. A brief burst of colder weather was insufficient to lift prices, which slipped to roughly $1.70 per MMBtu, the lowest level since...
China Halts Jet Fuel Exports, Triggering Global Shortage
Jet fuel supply disruptions continue. China has halted jet fuel exports; Asia is running out of fuel. Major shortages could soon spread to Europe and the US. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR DAMAGE. https://t.co/1BeaFpUw8i
Energy Price Surge Drives up U.S. CPI Inflation
First Wave of Energy Price Spikes Hit CPI Inflation. Energy that Americans pay for directly: Gasoline, propane, fuel oil, other fuels, utility natural gas, and electricity https://t.co/SiGQSZV2zn https://t.co/uO9XHnvFt8
Iran War: Expensive Oil Drives Rising Inflation in U.S.
The ongoing Iran‑War has choked oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing diesel prices up 55% year‑to‑date and sparking a sharp energy‑price shock. In March, the energy component of the CPI jumped 10.9%, while the gasoline index surged...
Global Oil Trade Hits Record Amid Saudi Disruptions
🇺🇸US crude oil exports to increase to highest on record 🇮🇳India's Imports from Russia are Near Record High 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia's damaged oil facilities: What is the impact? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/pyGKWXbmpg
Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk
Crude futures fell on Tuesday as investors weighed the impact of upcoming U.S.-Iran talks on the Strait of Hormuz. WTI settled at $96.57 a barrel, down 1.3% and 13% for the week, while Brent slipped to $95.20, a 0.8% decline...
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Does Little for Fertilizer Availability, Prices
The recent U.S.-Iran cease‑fire will not quickly restore fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz, according to StoneX market specialist Josh Linville. About 930,000 tons of fertilizer are stranded on ships, yet India alone still requires roughly 600,000 tons more to meet...
Cattle Futures Finish the Week Higher
Cattle futures closed the week higher on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, with June live cattle up $2 to $240.20 and August live cattle gaining $1.40 to $244.75 per hundredweight. Feeder cattle also rose, as May contracts added $1.92 to $372.25...
