AI of the Coast: The 5-Year Roadmap to General AI

The OpenAI Valuation Trap: Someone’s Math Is Wrong

OpenAI’s current valuation of roughly $300 billion hinges on a projected $30‑50 billion in annual revenue by 2030, despite today’s $14 billion ARR and heavy compute burn. The post argues that rapid cost declines—about 80 % per year in model inference—are turning frontier AI into a commodity, eroding the premium that justifies high multiples. Microsoft’s unwinding of its exclusive Azure‑OpenAI partnership threatens a key distribution channel, as the cloud giant builds its own models and backs rivals. Without a breakthrough in application‑layer stickiness, OpenAI’s three‑pronged bet on consumer, SaaS, and research may be untenable.