Plan for AI: Fast Takeoff, Slow Rise, or Plateau
3 scenarios for AI: 1) Automated coder in 2028, 1yr intelligence explosion to superintelligence in 2029 2) Automated coder in 2030, slower takeoff to ASI ~2036 3) AI plateaus around 2030. AI agents everywhere but don't reach true AGI for decades. What should you do in each?
Only Two Years
You may have two years left to prepare for the intelligence explosion. How are you going to spend them?
Current Trends Point to AI Explosion by 2030
Everything's unfolding exactly as you'd expect if there will be an intelligence explosion around 2028-2030.
Claude Opus 4.5 Codes Hour for $0.65 vs $21
In the METR benchmark: Cost for Claude Opus 4.5 to do 1h coding task: $0.65 Cost to pay humans to do the same: $21 AI is extremely cheap.
Top AI Forecasters Assign 10% Chance of Next-Year R&D Automation
In Feb, I was shocked to find some of the best AI forecasters think there's a 10% chance AI R&D gets automated *the next year*.
