War Triggers Soaring Commodity Prices, Gas up 85%
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... European Natural Gas: +85% Heating Oil: +80% Brent Crude Oil: +54% Urea: +48% WTI Crude Oil: +46% Gasoline: +44% Diesel: +42% Sulfur: +25% Coal: +24% Fertilizer: +23% Palm Oil: +13% US Natural Gas: +8% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7%
Massive Bets on US Iran Invasion Raise Ethical Concerns
Polymarket: 60% chance that the US will have troops on the ground in Iran by the end of April. >$22 million wagered on this so far. I don't think it should be legal to "bet" on something like this - you're creating...
Rising Gas Prices Drag Down Discretionary Spending
Energy sector $XLE: +33% YTD Consumer Discretionary sector $XLY: -10% YTD Higher gas prices are expected to reduce discretionary spending. The more you spend at the pump, the less you have to spend elsewhere (travel, restaurants, clothing, etc.). Video: https://t.co/kTI1Olplo7
All Markets Plunge, Crypto Crashes Below All‑Time Highs
% Below All-Time High ExxonMobil: 0% S&P 500: -7% Google: -14% Apple: -14% Nvidia: -19% Gold: -20% Amazon: -21% Meta: -25% Tesla: -26% Palantir: -28% Microsoft: -31% Bitcoin: -44% Silver: -45% Ethereum: -57% MicroStrategy: -75% Fartcoin: -92% Trump Coin: -96% Melania Coin: -99%
7.6% S&P Dip Is Typical, Not Alarming
The S&P 500 is now down 7.6% from its January peak. Is that a lot? Not at all. This is right in line with the median correction off an all-time high since the March 2009 low. We see a decline of this amount...
US Debt Swells $2.8T Since July, Near $40T
The US National Debt has now increased by $2.8 trillion since the Debt Ceiling was raised last July. The Federal Government continues to borrow from our future to spend money like drunken sailors today. Next stop: $40 trillion... https://t.co/rtXuDORPwa
S&P Holds Near High Amid War, Oil Shock
Remarkable with everything that's going on that the S&P 500 is only down 6% from its high. Market seems to be pricing in a short-lived War with Crude Oil crashing back down. This is the hopeful outcome but is the market...
No Tax Increases, $40 Trillion Debt Looms
There's zero talk of raising taxes to fund this. $40 trillion in National Debt coming soon... https://t.co/zauvCi19PA
Energy Surges, Financials Slump: 40% Sector Gap
>40% spread between the best and worst performing sectors so far this year... -Energy $XLE: +31% -Financials $XLF: -11% Video: https://t.co/kTI1Olplo7
Cleveland Fed Predicts 3% CPI, Hikes Outweigh Cuts
The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 3% CPI Inflation reading for March, up from 2.4% in February. There is now a higher probability of a Fed rate HIKE (8%) in April than a rate CUT (0%). https://t.co/yoWBJBbDDN
S&P 500 Faces Frequent >1% Drops Ahead
The S&P 500 fell 1.4% today, its 7th daily decline so far this year with a loss above 1%. Expect to see many more of these days in the coming weeks/months - the average year since 1928 has 29...
Global Inflation Rates Set to Shift Dramatically Next Month
This chart is going to look at lot different a month from now. Global Inflation Rates... https://t.co/97kgL1q8Hx
Australia Raises Rates Again, 25 Bps to 4.10%
Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the second straight month, 25 bps move up to 4.10%. https://t.co/tBFSesl4qo
California Gas Hits $5.53, 49% Above National Average
Gas prices in California are 49% above the US national average. $5.53 per gallon. https://t.co/cdwV8Mxi27
Energy Price Surge Threatens to Reverse US Inflation Decline
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices have been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis......
BDCs Lag While S&P Holds Near January Peak
The last 2 times BDCs were in a bear market (2020 & 2022), the S&P 500 was in one as well. Interesting divergence today with the S&P 500 down only 5% off its January high... Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
Higher Rates, Free Market, Not Fed Cuts, Win
There's going to be a lot of people complaining this week when the Fed doesn't cut rates. Let them. It's the right decision. In fact, interest rates should be much higher than where they are today. The free market should...
Fed Must Erase 12% Excess Inflation Before Rate Cuts
The Fed should not even think about cutting rates again until the 12% additional inflation we've had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There's no point in having an inflation target if you're not going to adhere...
Fertilizer Prices Surge 35%, Fueling Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since October 2022, rising 35% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: https://t.co/pOPRl50mmA
Energy Surges While Financials Tumble YTD
Top 3 S&P 500 Sectors YTD... 1) Energy: +29% 2) Utilities: +10% 3) Staples: +9% Bottom 3 S&P 500 Sectors YTD... 1) Financials: -11% 2) Consumer Discretionary: -7% 3) Tech: -5% Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
Higher Stock Returns Reward Higher Risk
The only reason why stocks have a higher long-term return than bonds and cash is to compensate investors for taking on the greater risk of uncertainty, volatility and drawdowns along the way. Without this risk there would be no higher reward....
Promises of 5% Growth Ignore Looming Debt Reality
January 2025: "Don't worry about the $2 trillion deficit and the rising national debt. We are going to grow our way out of it with 5% Real GDP." Today: "Wait till next year." https://t.co/D1ZtfYxn0r
S&P 500 Logs 32nd 5% Pullback Since 2009
The S&P 500 is down 5.4% from its Jan 28 peak, the 32nd pullback >5% since the March 2009 low. Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
Magnificent Seven All Down, Lagging S&P 500
All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year and underperforming the S&P 500. Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
Crude Oil's 48% Surge Marks Second‑Largest 2‑Week Jump
Crude Oil Futures started trading in 1983. The 48% spike over the past 2 weeks was the 2nd biggest 2-week % increase in history. From $67/barrel to $99/barrel... Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
Government Claims 20% Health Insurance Cost Drop—Absurd
The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 20% over the last 5 years... https://t.co/Iw2M0izZim
Core PCE Hits 22‑month High, Fueling Fed Hike Odds
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved up to 3.1% in January, the highest level in 22 months. That was the 59th consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut next...
US Gas Prices Surge 20% in Two Weeks, 30‑year High
Gas prices in the US are up over 20% in the past two weeks (from $2.98/gallon to $3.59/gallon). That's the biggest two-week spike that we've seen in the past 30 years. https://t.co/satpQMppWO
Everything Plummets: Crypto Crashes Harder than Stocks
% Below All-Time High Chevron: 0% S&P 500: -5% Gold: -9% Apple: -11% Google: -13% Nvidia: -14% Amazon: -19% Meta: -20% Tesla: -21% Palantir: -26% Microsoft: -27% Netflix: -30% Bitcoin: -44% Ethereum: -58% MicroStrategy: -75% Fartcoin: -94% Trump Coin: -96% Melania Coin: -99%
Fed Cuts Unlikely as Inflation Stays Above Target
At the start of the year, the market was pricing in 2 Fed rate cuts. Today: just one cut, and not until the September meeting. The reality is inflation never moved down to the Fed's 2% target and is now moving higher....
US Inflation Far Exceeds 2% Myth; Fed Must Hold Rates
Consumer Prices in the US rose 4.4% per year over the last 5 years and over 24% in total. 2% inflation is a myth. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year. https://t.co/yilrof4KhM
Presidents' Endless Pledge: Balancing the Budget, Year After Year
“The Federal Government cannot continue to spend more money than it takes in.” - Jimmy Carter (1978) “For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit, mortgaging our future and our children's future.” - Ronald Reagan (1981) “We must bring the Federal budget...
Cleveland Fed Sees 2.87% CPI, 60th Month Above Target
The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 2.87% CPI inflation rate for March, up from 2.4% in February. That will be the 60th consecutive month (5 straight years) with inflation above the Fed's 2% target. There's no way Powell cuts...
Bond Market Predicts Near‑Zero Chance of Fed Cut
Bond Market: less than 1% probability of a Fed rate cut next week. Lloyd Christmas: so you're telling me there's a chance? https://t.co/29QHtCRSqe
SPR Releases Are Optics, Not Price Drivers
Reminder: tapping the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve" is just about optics. It has no meaningful impact on the price of Oil because the reserve is so small, only representing 20 days of US Oil consumption (assuming we used it all) and...
US Customs Duties Surge to $308B, Refunds Looming
The US collected a record $308 billion in customs duties over the last 12 months, which was 276% higher than what was collected in the 12 months prior ($83 billion). Who is paying this tax and how much of it will...
US Federal Deficit Hits $1 Trillion in First Five Months
In the first 5 months of the 2026 Fiscal Year the US Federal Government took in $2.1 trillion and spent $3.1 trillion. Don’t try this at home. https://t.co/nGKPLUJ4vh
Utilities Soar, Gasoline Drops; CPI Modestly Up
Price changes over last year (February CPI report) Gas Utilities: +10.9% Fuel Oil: +6.2% Electricity: +4.8% Medical Care: +4.1% Food away from home: +3.9% Shelter: +3.0% Overall CPI: +2.4% Food at home: +2.4% Transportation: +2.2% New Cars: +0.5% Used Cars: -3.2% Gasoline: -5.6%
Every 5% Dip Scares, Then Markets Rebound Higher
At today's low, the S&P 500 was down 5.2% from its Jan 28 peak, the 32nd pullback >5% since the March 2009 low. Each one came with a scary headline. Each one felt like the end of the world. But the world didn’t...
Rising Oil Prices Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
Lower energy prices were keeping US inflation rates from rising. But that tailwind will turn into a headwind in March with prices spiking on a YoY basis. We could easily see CPI rise above 3% if Crude Oil stays above...
Crude Oil ETF's 33% Surge: A 6‑Sigma Rarity
The Crude Oil ETF spiked 33% over the last week, the biggest weekly gain in its history. This was a 6-sigma event, which (assuming a normal distribution) is only supposed to occur once every 4,039,906 years. So we shouldn't see another spike...
VIX Spikes Often Precede Stock Rebounds—Still Just Probabilities
The $VIX increased 48% this week, the 21st biggest weekly spike ever. What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes? Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average forward returns. Does this always happen? No. There are no certainties in markets,...
WTI Jumps 36%, Second Biggest Weekly Rise in 40 Years
WTI Crude Oil prices spiked 36% this week to $91/barrel. This was the 2nd biggest weekly increase in the last 40 years, trailing only the 2020 Covid rebound after Crude Oil prices crashed to $15/barrel. Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes...
S&P 500 Faces Frequent 1%+ Drops Ahead
The S&P 500 fell 1.3% today, its 5th daily decline so far this year with a loss above 1%. Expect to see many more of these days in the coming weeks/months - the average year since 1928 has 29...
Netflix Surges 30%+, Outpaces Colgate, P&G;
Update: After a 30+% rally in Netflix, it now trades at a premium to Colgate and P&G. Investors really didn't like the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition and the stock has rallied every single day since they exited the bidding war...
Magnificent Seven All Lagging Behind S&P 500
All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are now down on the year and underperforming the S&P 500. Video: https://t.co/VjMx0vXyKp
February: Metals and Energy Surge While Stocks and Crypto Dive
February... Silver $SLV: +13% Energy $XLE: +10% Gold $GLD: +9% International Developed $VEA: +6% EM $IEMG: +6% Oil $USO: +3% Bonds $AGG: +2% S&P 500 $SPY: -1% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: -2% Financials $XLF: -4% Mag 7 $MAGS: -7% Software $IGV: -10% Bitcoin $IBIT: -22% Fartcoin $FART: -31%
Federal Deficit Swells to Historic 8% of GDP
US Federal Budget Deficit as a % of GDP... 1950s: -0.4% 1960s: -0.7% 1970s: -1.9% 1980s: -3.8% 1990s: -2.1% 2000s: -2.3% 2010s: -4.8% 2020s: -8.3% https://t.co/W7GwqCkcBx
Consumer Staples Outvalue Netflix on Forward P/E
Forward P/E Ratios... Colgate $CL: 23.4x Proctor & Gamble $PG: 22.5x Netflix $NFLX: 19.9x 🤔 https://t.co/3B4ig8yjTW
US Savings Rate Hits 4.5% — Lowest Since 1959
The personal savings rate in the US averaged 4.5% in 2025. History since 1959... https://t.co/umS9AR2N61