US Banks Post Record Q1 Trading Revenue, Stocks Surge
The 6 biggest US banks posted a record $45 billion in trading revenue during Q1, up 17% YoY. Their stock prices have soared over the past year... $C: +110% $GS: +81% $MS: +78% $BAC: +46% $JPM: +34% $WFC: +27% https://t.co/iQiw72CVNW
Iran Conflict Fuels Massive Commodity Price Surges
Since the start of the Iran war... Sulfur: +67% Jet Fuel: +66% Urea: +51% Diesel: +50% Heating Oil: +40% WTI Crude Oil: +37% European Natural Gas: +34% Gasoline: +32% Fertilizer: +31% Brent Crude Oil: +31% Coal: +14% Palm Oil: +10% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +4% S&P 500: +1% $VIX: -8%
S&P 500 Total Return Hits New All‑Time High
Including dividends, the S&P 500 is now up over 2% YTD with the total return index closing at a new all-time high today. $SPX https://t.co/oE5qym7Qb6
Volatility Clusters: Big Ups Follow Big Downs Near March Low
The S&P 500 rose 1.2% today, its 4th big up day (>1% gain) in the past 2 weeks. The V-shaped recovery off the March low is another reminder for investors: volatility cuts both ways and is not linear over time....
Nvidia’s Decade Return Dwarfs All, Outpaces Inflation
Last 10 Years NVIDIA $NVDA: +21,630% Bitcoin $BTC: +17,401% $AMD: +9,278% Tesla $TSLA: +2,071% Apple $AAPL: +919% Netflix $NFLX: +863% Google $GOOGL: +763% Microsoft $MSFT: +707% Amazon $AMZN: +704% Meta $META: +501% S&P 500 $SPY: +293% Gold $GLD: +280% US Inflation (CPI): +39%
Producer Prices Up 4.6% Annually; Fed Should Hold Rates
Producer Prices in the US rose 4.6% per year over the last 5 years and over 25% in total. 2% inflation is a myth. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year. https://t.co/sm0qnaFXWD
US Tariff Revenue Drops 29% Before Massive Refunds
US tariff revenue moved down to $22 billion in March, a 29% decline from the peak revenue levels last November ($31 billion). This is before the impact of IEEPA duty refunds which are expected to total $170 billion in the...
VIX Drops 38% in Two Weeks, 7th Largest Crash
The 38% decline in the $VIX over the last 2 weeks is the 7th biggest volatility crash in history. https://t.co/WG93PaZexq
S&P 500 Near New Record, Up 1% YTD
The S&P 500 is now up 1% YTD and above the level it was at when the Iran war began. Only needs another 1% gain to hit a new all-time high. $SPX Video: https://t.co/GTwCFLgKqY
Government Claims 21% Health Insurance Cost Decline Over Five Years
The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 21% over the last 5 years... https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ https://t.co/YUTqN8BlGp
US Federal Deficit Swells: $1.2 Trillion Shortfall in Six Months
In the first 6 months of the 2026 Fiscal Year the US Federal Government took in $2.5 trillion and spent $3.7 trillion. Don’t try this at home. https://t.co/L0Zec6hR6L
Fed Fooled World Into Ignoring 4% Inflation
The greatest trick the Fed ever pulled was convincing the world 4% inflation didn't exist. https://t.co/2nQtRmlH9U
March CPI Spikes to 3.3%, Fed Cut Odds Zero
Overall US CPI moved up to 3.3% in March, the highest level since April 2024. The odds of a Fed rate cut this month: 0% https://t.co/LVl4ndgw8H
Fuel Oil Soars 44%, Used Cars Slip 3%
Price changes over last year (March CPI report) Fuel Oil: +44.2% Gasoline: +18.9% Gas Utilities: +6.4% Electricity: +4.6% Transportation: +4.1% Food away from home: +3.8% Medical Care: +3.7% Overall CPI: +3.3% Shelter: +3.0% Food at home: +1.9% New Cars: +0.5% Used Cars: -3.2%
S&P 500 YTD Flat Despite Market Turmoil
S&P 500 YTD total return: +0.0% After all that ... it’s like nothing ever happened. https://t.co/YsLkrj3kUt
Exxon Outperformed Salesforce After Dow Swap
In August 2020, Exxon was removed from the Dow and Salesforce was added to the index. Total Returns since... Exxon $XOM: +396% Salesforce $CRM: -39% https://t.co/8HfMqrkk8i
Semiconductors Soar While Software Lags Sharply
Returns over the last year... Semiconductor ETF $SOXX: +108% (All-Time High Today) Software ETF $IGV: -14% (52-Week Low Today) https://t.co/aYmabDVzCs
Tech Giants Plunge, All Below All-Time Highs
% Below All-Time High S&P 500 $SPY: -2% Palo Alto Networks $PANW: -26% CrowdStrike $CRWD: -30% Microsoft $MSFT: -33% Palantir $PLTR: -38% Applovin $APP: -49% Salesforce $CRM: -53% Intuit $INTU: -55% Oracle $ORCL: -60% ServiceNow $NOW: -63% Adobe $ADBE: -67% https://t.co/ogmB8CgBa1
VIX Dips Below Pre‑Iran War Level, Signaling Calm
The $VIX ended the day at 19.49, which is below the level it closed at the day before the Iran war began (19.86 on Feb 27). All is calm again... https://t.co/8iOlF6bfQZ
Trump‑linked Events Drive Outsized S&P Gains
"What started as a tongue-in-cheek observation that “Trump always chickens out” has become a consistently profitable pattern. Over the 300-plus trading sessions since Trump took the oath of office last year, 9 of the S&P 500’s 10 biggest gains have...
Greed Wins: S&P Up 31% After VIX Spike
Update: a year ago, the $VIX ended the week at 45.3, one of its highest weekly closes in history. The S&P 500 has rallied 31% since then, adding to the list of times when it paid to be greedy when...
S&P 500 Rebounds 31% After Historic April Plunge
Update: the S&P 500 has gained 31% since last April when it experienced one of the biggest 2-day declines ever (-10.5%). $SPX https://t.co/KcyPMWIw8p
US Gas Hits $4.12, 38% 5‑Week Surge
Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.12 per gallon, their highest level since August 2022. The 38% spike over the last 5 weeks ($2.98/gallon to $4.12/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years. Video: https://t.co/e3t0Md56BN
Unemployment Hits 4.3%, Jobs Surge Beyond Forecast
US Unemployment Rate moved down to 4.3% in March, the lowest level since last August & well below the historical average of 5.7%. 178k jobs were added vs. 51k expected (but February revised⬇️to -133k from -92k). YoY wage growth: +3.5%,...
2026 Forecast: Economy Expected to Grow 4‑5% Real
“We are going to see a very, very strong economy this year. We could see between 4 and 5% real growth." - Scott Bessent, Jan 2026 https://t.co/JlonK53rXZ
Market Odds Suggest US Troops Soon Despite Trump’s Vague Timeline
“We’ll be leaving very soon, within two weeks, maybe a couple of days longer to do the job. But we want to knock out every single thing they have." -President Trump (3/31) If this is true, why is Polymarket showing a...
War and Hormuz Stalemate: Each Blocks the Other
They won’t end the war until Hormuz opens. But Hormuz won’t open until the war ends.🤔 https://t.co/z3QG3m2ZIs
US Bond Market Endures Record 68‑Month Drawdown
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 68 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/iK6GQkwPgq
S&P's Biggest Rally Highlights Volatility’s Two‑way Nature
The S&P 500 gained 2.9% today, its biggest up day since last May (China tariff pause rally). Important for investors to remember: volatility cuts both ways and is not linear over time. Big down days and big up days often...
March: Energy Surges as Equities, Metals Tumble
March... Oil $USO: +55% Gasoline $UGA: +42% Commodities $DBC: +15% $VIX: +27% Energy $XLE: +10% Bitcoin $IBIT: +3% Bonds $AGG: -2% S&P $SPY: -5% Mag 7 $MAGS: -6% REITs $VNQ: -6% Retail $XRT: -7% International Developed $VEA: -9% EM $IEMG: -9% Gold $GLD: -11% Silver $SLV: -20%
VIX >30 Predicts Strong Yearly Market Gains
The $VIX closed above 30 in each of the last 2 trading days. Historically, this level of fear in the Volatility Index has been associated with above-average future stock market returns (+21% over the next year on average). But the...
Home Prices Slow, Sellers Outnumber Buyers, Prices Set to Drop
US home prices increased 0.9% over the last year, the slowest growth rate since June 2023. There are currently a record 46% more sellers than buyers nationally. Absent manipulation from the Federal Government/Reserve, prices will come down and homes will...
Rent Prices Fall, Still Cheaper Than Mortgages Nationwide
US Rents were down 1.7% over the last year, the 34th consecutive month with a YoY decline. Renting a home is cheaper than paying a mortgage in all 50 of the largest metro areas in the US. https://t.co/swZ96UHKp8
Energy Price Surge Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices had been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis. CPI...
Mortgage Rates Rebound From Historic Lows to 6.38%
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.38% (highest since Sep 2025) https://t.co/EZVocXbneE
Betting on War: $50M Wager Fuels Conflict Incentives
Polymarket: 70% chance that the US will have troops on the ground in Iran by the end of April. >$50 million wagered on this so far. It shouldn't be legal to "bet" on something like this - you're creating a financial incentive...
US Gas Hits $4.10, Biggest 4‑week Jump in 30 Years
Gas prices in the US rose to $4.10 per gallon last week, their highest level since August 2022. The 33% increase over the last 4 weeks ($3.07/gallon to $4.10/gallon) is the biggest 4-week spike we've seen in the past 30 years....
Fertilizer Prices Surge 52%, Threatening Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since September 2022, rising 52% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. https://t.co/KYmqkbca60
Energy Soars, Financials Plunge: Stagflation’s Sector Split
A stunning 53% spread between the best and worst performing S&P 500 sectors so far this year: -Energy $XLE: +41% -Financials $XLF: -12% This is what stagflation looks like... https://t.co/mjjvgXsRDs
S&P 500 Slides 9%, Longest Correction Since 2022
The S&P 500 is now down 9% from its January peak. This is the biggest correction since the tariff tantrum last April and the longest since the 2022 bear market. $SPX https://t.co/QciAw5ESf1
All Magnificent Seven Stocks Lag S&P 500, Deep Declines
All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year (-8% for Apple to -26% for Microsoft) and underperforming the average stock in the S&P 500 (which is down -1%) by a wide margin. https://t.co/61SEyeq0tV
Iran War Triggers Double‑digit Commodity Price Surges
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... Heating Oil: +77% European Natural Gas: +71% Brent Crude Oil: +58% WTI Crude Oil: +51% Urea: +48% Diesel: +44% Sulfur: +43% Gasoline: +42% Fertilizer: +29% Coal: +21% Palm Oil: +14% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7% US Natural Gas: +6%
Market Crash: Every Listed Asset Plummets Below All‑Time High
% Below All-Time High ExxonMobil: 0% S&P 500: -9% Apple: -14% Gold: -20% Nvidia: -21% Google: -22% Amazon: -23% Tesla: -28% Palantir: -32% Meta: -34% Microsoft: -36% Silver: -43% Bitcoin: -48% Ethereum: -60% MicroStrategy: -77% Fartcoin: -94% Trump Coin: -96% Melania Coin: -99%
S&P Faces Historic Wave of 1%+ Daily Drops
The S&P 500 fell 1.7% on Friday, its 10th daily decline so far this year with a loss above 1%. Expect to see many more of these days in the coming weeks & months - the average year since...
S&P 500 Slides
The S&P 500 is down 7% in the first 59 trading days of 2026, the 14th worst start to a year in history. $SPX https://t.co/giuunxMRVO
Global Inflation Rates Set to Shift Dramatically Soon
This chart is going to look at lot different a month from now. Global Inflation Rates... https://t.co/RrBw1EeUo3
Record February Home Purchase Cancellations Hit 13.7%
42k US home purchases were canceled in February which equates to 13.7% of all homes under contract. That's the highest cancellation percentage for any February on record. https://t.co/QuxiWyB3TE
US Money Supply Jumps 5%—Largest Rise Since 2022
The US Money Supply grew 5% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since June 2022. After a brief hiatus, money printing is back. https://t.co/bnnPEsB9x6
72% Want Congress to Approve Ongoing Iran War
Poll results: 72% of respondents said this is a war and Congress should be required to approve continued military action against Iran... https://t.co/FayWJf10w0
Majority Predict US Recession Within the Year
Poll results: 60% of respondents said the US economy will fall into a recession this year... https://t.co/tNssjMxbdK