April CPI Spikes to 3.8%, Fed Lagging Behind
US CPI Inflation Rate moved up to 3.8% in April, its highest level since May 2023. The Inflation Rate is now back above the Fed Funds Rate and CPI is likely headed above 4%. The Fed is once again behind the curve and should be hiking interest rates. https://t.co/kIpBFM9q7t
Fuel Oil Spikes 54%, Gasoline up 28% in Year
Price changes over last year (April CPI report) Fuel Oil: +54.3% Gasoline: +28.4% Electricity: +6.1% Transportation: +4.3% Apparel: +4.2% Overall CPI: +3.8% Food away from home: +3.6% Shelter: +3.3% Medical Care: +3.2% Gas Utilities: +3.0% Food at home: +2.9% New Cars: +0.2% Used Cars: -2.7%
Historic S&P Rally Unlinked to Bear Market Cycle
The 16% gain in the S&P 500 over the last 6 weeks is the 11th biggest 6-week gain for the index since 1950. What's unique about this rally? It's the only example in the top 20 that did not occur either during...
Mexico Delivers Final 15th Rate Cut to 6.50%
Global Central Bank Update: -Mexico cut rates for the 15th time in the cycle with a 25 bps move down to 6.50%. The board stated this will be the final cut in the easing cycle. https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ https://t.co/669sf1Lo6O
Healthcare Adds 1.8 M Jobs; Other Sectors Lose 128 K
Insane stat: Healthcare and Social Assistance have added nearly 1.8 million private-sector jobs in the US since the end of 2023 while all of other industries combined have lost 127,800 jobs. https://t.co/LpZ31hL2fD
U.S. Adds 55k Jobs Monthly, Strongest Six‑month Streak Since 2025
55k US jobs per month were added over the last 6 months, the strongest 6-month growth rate since May 2025. https://t.co/nDPoQrhKtq
S&P 500 Hits 7,400, Doubling in a Decade
The S&P 500 just crossed above 7,400 for the first time. A year ago it was at 5,600. 5 years ago it was at 4,200. 10 years ago it was at 2,100. $SPY https://t.co/cBBlLJhbOb
April Unemployment Hits 4.3%, Jobs Surpass Expectations
US Unemployment Rate remained at 4.3% in April, the lowest level since last August & well below the historical average of 5.7%. 115k jobs were added vs. 63k expected. February/March were revised down⬇️16k. YoY wage growth: +3.6%. Overall: strong report,...
US Gas Prices Surge 53% to 30‑Year High
Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.56 per gallon, their highest level since July 2022. The 53% spike over the last 10 weeks ($2.98/gallon to $4.56/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years. https://t.co/TTvJBJvcVF
Australia Raises Rates Again, 4.35% Target
Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the third straight meeting, 25 bps move up to 4.35%. https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ https://t.co/r926jXlyCl
Bond Market Flags Risk as 30‑Year Yield Tops 5%
The 30-Year Treasury yield closed above 5% today and it not far from its highest level in more than a decade. The stock market may be ignoring Iran and Inflation, but the bond market is not. Video: https://t.co/2JUqFjVZ49
0.1% of Users Capture 67% of Polymarket Profits
Insane stat: 0.1% of the accounts on Polymarket have earned 67% of the profits. https://t.co/HV9J2nDCmt
US Bond Market Endures Record 69-Month Drawdown
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 69 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/Y1cdWffv71
S&P 500 Closes Week at 12th All‑Time High
The S&P 500 ended the week at another all-time high, its 12th of the year. $SPY Video: https://t.co/Mc35tZCH30
Top S&P 500 Winners Across 5‑20 Year Horizons
The best performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last 5, 10, 15, and 20 years... https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ https://t.co/EuWF4B4RuU
Mortgage Rates Rebound From Historic Lows to 6.3%
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.30% https://t.co/Ji2noTwgDL
Apple’s $732B Buyback Dwarfs 488 S&P 500 Firms
Apple has bought back $732 billion in stock over the past 10 years, which is greater than the market cap of 488 companies in the S&P 500. $AAPL https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih https://t.co/dSTt9FzbyM
Nvidia’s Decade Return Dwarfs All, Even Inflation
Last 10 Years NVIDIA $NVDA: +22,875% Bitcoin $BTC: +17,205% $AMD: +10,030% Tesla $TSLA: +2,362% Apple $AAPL: +1,233% Google $GOOGL: +999% Netflix $NFLX: +932% Microsoft $MSFT: +844% Amazon $AMZN: +717% Meta: $META: +425% S&P 500 $SPY: +312% Gold $GLD: +245% US Inflation: +39%
War Sparks Massive Commodity Surge, Stocks Rise, Volatility Falls
Since the start of the Iran war... Jet Fuel: +80% Sulfur: +68% Heating Oil: +56% WTI Crude Oil: +55% Brent Crude Oil: +52% Diesel: +48% Gasoline: +47% Urea: +47% European Nat Gas: +44% Fertilizer: +23% Coal: +13% Palm Oil: +13% Iron Ore: +8% Wheat: +6% S&P 500: +5% $VIX: -15%
Meta Tops Q1 Revenue Growth, All Tech Outpace S&P
Q1 Revenue Growth, YoY % Change... Meta $META: +33% Google $GOOGL: +22% Microsoft $MSFT: +18% Apple $AAPL: +17% Amazon $AMZN: +17% Netflix $NFLX: +16% Tesla $TSLA: +16% S&P 500 $SPY: +10%
Apple Posts Record Q1 Revenue, Net Income, Margins
Apple revenues increased 17% over the last year to a new Q1 record of $111 billion. Net Income grew 19% year-over-year to new Q1 record of $30 billion. Gross margins increased to 49% (from 47% a year ago), the highest...
Amazon's Revenue Soars to $810B, 24% CAGR
Amazon Revenue (Billions) 2026 (est): 810 2025: 717 2024: 638 2023: 575 2022: 514 2021: 470 2020: 386 2019: 281 2018: 233 2017: 178 2016: 136 2015: 107 2014: 89 2013: 74 2012: 61 2011: 48 2010: 34 2009: 25 2008: 19 2007: 15 2006: 11 24% annualized growth over the last 20 years
Amazon Hits Record Q1 Revenue, Profit, Margins
Amazon revenues increased 17% over the last year to a new Q1 record of $182 billion. Net Income increased 77% YoY to $30 billion, the highest quarterly profit in company history. Operating margins increased to a record 13.4% from 12.0%...
California Gas Tops $6, 40% Above National Average
Gas prices in California have moved up above $6.00/gallon, 40% higher than the US national average ($4.30/gallon). https://t.co/pB0UfwGqPX
S&P 500 Surpasses 7,200, Doubling Decade‑Long Gains
The S&P 500 just crossed above 7,200 for the first time. A year ago it was at 5,600. 5 years ago it was at 4,200. 10 years ago it was at 2,100. $SPX https://t.co/b24VEKNTKj
Brazil Slashes Rates Again, Down to 14.5%
Global Central Bank Update: -Brazil cut rates for the second month in a row, 25 bps move down to 14.50%. https://t.co/a53O5fczcP
Core PCE Hits 3.2%, Prompting Likely Fed Hike
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) came in at 3.2% in March, the highest level since November 2023. This was the 61st consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut in...
Bond Market Sees 12% Chance of Fed Hike, 5% Cut
The bond market is now pricing in a higher probability of a Fed RATE HIKE (12%) by the end of this year than a RATE CUT (5%). https://t.co/i77bnsp7MR
Fed’s $9 Trillion Money Printing Drove Inflation, Not Supply Shocks
The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell. Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth:...
Meta Q1 Revenue Hits $56.3B, Profit Margin Peaks
Meta revenues increased 33% over the last year to a new Q1 record of $56.3 billion. Net income increased 61% YoY to a new record high of $26.8 billion. Net profit margin of 47.5% was a new all-time high. $META...
Microsoft Q1 Revenue Hits Record $83B, Azure Soars 40%
Microsoft's Q1 revenues increased 18% over the last year to a new record high of $83 billion. Net income grew 23% YoY to a new Q1 record of $32 billion. Azure and cloud services revenue increased 40% YoY, beating estimates. $MSFT...
Fed Cuts Raise 30-Year Yield; Inflation Still Looming
The Fed started cutting rates in Sep 2024 with the 30-year Treasury yield below 4%. They cut rates 175 bps and the 30-year yield is now approaching 5%. The Fed may be done with inflation, but inflation isn’t done with the Fed....
Trump Meme Coin Plummets 97% After Promotion
Update: The Trump Meme coin is now down 97% from his post promoting it back in January 2025, hitting another all-time low today. "Play stupid games, win stupid prizes" applies but this grift should never have been legal. https://t.co/5HHz6CbDvV
US Gas Prices Surge to $4.23, 30‑Year High
Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.23 per gallon, their highest level since August 2022. The 42% spike over the last 9 weeks ($2.98/gallon to $4.23/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years. https://t.co/Rw1sNI6MuP
Record Seller Surplus Signals Falling US Home Prices
US home prices increased 0.7% over the last year, the slowest growth rate since June 2023. There are currently a record 46% more sellers than buyers nationally. Absent manipulation from the Federal Government/Reserve, prices will come down and homes will...
30% of US Car Trade‑Ins Carry $7,
30% of car buyers trading in vehicles in the US now have negative equity, owing an average of $7,200 on their old loans. https://t.co/TpzmdcBSII
Traders Shrug Rhetoric, Buy Dips, Push SPX to New Highs
2026 is following the same playbook as 2025. Only difference is traders have become much more immune to extreme rhetoric and have been more confident in buying the dip, sending the stock market quickly back to new all-time highs. $SPX Video:...
S&P 500 CAPE Hits 41, Highest Since 2000
The S&P 500's CAPE Ratio has moved up to 41, its highest level since 2000 and now above 99% of historical valuations. $SPX Video: https://t.co/8sftndQio4
S&P 500 Posts 15% YoY Earnings Rise, 13th Straight Quarter
With 28% of companies reported, S&P 500 1st quarter earnings are up 15% over the prior year, the 13th consecutive quarter of positive YoY growth. $SPX Video: https://t.co/FSc0CyC2dz
S&P 500 Climbs Despite Longest Government Shutdown
Does a government shutdown negatively impact the stock market? No. The S&P 500 has gained an average of 0.4% during prior shutdowns and is up 4.8% during the current shutdown which is the longest in history at 70 days and counting. $SPX https://t.co/zrFBbspSbR
Fed Expands QE Despite Record Markets and Persistent Inflation
The stock market is at an all-time high. Credit spreads are near all-time lows. And inflation has been above the Fed's target level for 61 consecutive months, averaging 4% per year since 2019. So why is the Fed expanding its balance sheet (QE)? Video:...
S&P 500 Hits Eighth All‑time High of 2024
The S&P 500 ended the day at another all-time high, its 8th of the year. $SPX Video: https://t.co/RgOn4qX0pE
Retail Sales Soar as Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low
US Retail Sales hit another all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at its lowest level in history. Watch what they do, not what they say. https://t.co/mZJ1r5oqcI
Iran War Sparks Massive Commodity Price Surge, Markets Stable
Since the start of the Iran war... Jet Fuel: +60% Sulfur: +53% Urea: +49% Heating Oil: +46% Diesel: +46% Brent Crude Oil: +36% Fertilizer: +35% Gasoline: +35% WTI Crude Oil: +35% European Natural Gas: +33% Palm Oil: +14% Coal: +12% Iron Ore: +8% Rice: +6% S&P 500: +3% $VIX: -4%
Most US Stocks Lag Treasury Bills, Buy the Market
The majority of US stocks (59%) have underperformed Treasury bills over their lifetime and 45% end up having a negative cumulative return. “Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.” - Jack Bogle Video: https://t.co/yQSLZ1RFLj
Netflix Posts Record Q1 Revenue and Soaring Profit
Netflix revenues hit a record $12.3 billion in Q1, up 16% YoY. Net income hit a record $5.3 billion, up 83% YoY. Operating margins moved up to 32.3% from 31.7% a year ago. $NFLX https://t.co/L4wWI2gmjO
S&P 500 CAPE Hits 40, Tops 99% Historic Levels
The S&P 500's CAPE Ratio has moved up to 40, its highest level since 2000 and now above 99% of historical valuations. $SPX https://t.co/uhUt33SCp5
S&P 500 Rebounds From 7% Loss to +4.5% YTD
On March 30, the S&P 500 was down 7% in 2026, the 12th worst start to a year in history. After one of the biggest 3-week rallies ever, it's now up +4.5% YTD and above the average year at this...
Fertilizer Costs Surge 53%, Threatening Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since May 2022, rising 53% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: https://t.co/XaN1isYjSt
Historic S&P Rally Unlinked to Bear Market Cycle
The 11.9% gain in the S&P 500 over the last 3 weeks was the 13th biggest 3-week gain for the index since 1950. What's unique about this rally? It's the only example in the top 20 that did not occur either during...