Semiconductors Soar While Software Lags Sharply
Returns over the last year... Semiconductor ETF $SOXX: +108% (All-Time High Today) Software ETF $IGV: -14% (52-Week Low Today) https://t.co/aYmabDVzCs
Tech Giants Plunge, All Below All-Time Highs
% Below All-Time High S&P 500 $SPY: -2% Palo Alto Networks $PANW: -26% CrowdStrike $CRWD: -30% Microsoft $MSFT: -33% Palantir $PLTR: -38% Applovin $APP: -49% Salesforce $CRM: -53% Intuit $INTU: -55% Oracle $ORCL: -60% ServiceNow $NOW: -63% Adobe $ADBE: -67% https://t.co/ogmB8CgBa1
VIX Dips Below Pre‑Iran War Level, Signaling Calm
The $VIX ended the day at 19.49, which is below the level it closed at the day before the Iran war began (19.86 on Feb 27). All is calm again... https://t.co/8iOlF6bfQZ
Trump‑linked Events Drive Outsized S&P Gains
"What started as a tongue-in-cheek observation that “Trump always chickens out” has become a consistently profitable pattern. Over the 300-plus trading sessions since Trump took the oath of office last year, 9 of the S&P 500’s 10 biggest gains have...
Greed Wins: S&P Up 31% After VIX Spike
Update: a year ago, the $VIX ended the week at 45.3, one of its highest weekly closes in history. The S&P 500 has rallied 31% since then, adding to the list of times when it paid to be greedy when...
S&P 500 Rebounds 31% After Historic April Plunge
Update: the S&P 500 has gained 31% since last April when it experienced one of the biggest 2-day declines ever (-10.5%). $SPX https://t.co/KcyPMWIw8p
US Gas Hits $4.12, 38% 5‑Week Surge
Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.12 per gallon, their highest level since August 2022. The 38% spike over the last 5 weeks ($2.98/gallon to $4.12/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years. Video: https://t.co/e3t0Md56BN
Unemployment Hits 4.3%, Jobs Surge Beyond Forecast
US Unemployment Rate moved down to 4.3% in March, the lowest level since last August & well below the historical average of 5.7%. 178k jobs were added vs. 51k expected (but February revised⬇️to -133k from -92k). YoY wage growth: +3.5%,...
2026 Forecast: Economy Expected to Grow 4‑5% Real
“We are going to see a very, very strong economy this year. We could see between 4 and 5% real growth." - Scott Bessent, Jan 2026 https://t.co/JlonK53rXZ
Market Odds Suggest US Troops Soon Despite Trump’s Vague Timeline
“We’ll be leaving very soon, within two weeks, maybe a couple of days longer to do the job. But we want to knock out every single thing they have." -President Trump (3/31) If this is true, why is Polymarket showing a...
War and Hormuz Stalemate: Each Blocks the Other
They won’t end the war until Hormuz opens. But Hormuz won’t open until the war ends.🤔 https://t.co/z3QG3m2ZIs
US Bond Market Endures Record 68‑Month Drawdown
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 68 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/iK6GQkwPgq
S&P's Biggest Rally Highlights Volatility’s Two‑way Nature
The S&P 500 gained 2.9% today, its biggest up day since last May (China tariff pause rally). Important for investors to remember: volatility cuts both ways and is not linear over time. Big down days and big up days often...
March: Energy Surges as Equities, Metals Tumble
March... Oil $USO: +55% Gasoline $UGA: +42% Commodities $DBC: +15% $VIX: +27% Energy $XLE: +10% Bitcoin $IBIT: +3% Bonds $AGG: -2% S&P $SPY: -5% Mag 7 $MAGS: -6% REITs $VNQ: -6% Retail $XRT: -7% International Developed $VEA: -9% EM $IEMG: -9% Gold $GLD: -11% Silver $SLV: -20%
VIX >30 Predicts Strong Yearly Market Gains
The $VIX closed above 30 in each of the last 2 trading days. Historically, this level of fear in the Volatility Index has been associated with above-average future stock market returns (+21% over the next year on average). But the...
Home Prices Slow, Sellers Outnumber Buyers, Prices Set to Drop
US home prices increased 0.9% over the last year, the slowest growth rate since June 2023. There are currently a record 46% more sellers than buyers nationally. Absent manipulation from the Federal Government/Reserve, prices will come down and homes will...
Rent Prices Fall, Still Cheaper Than Mortgages Nationwide
US Rents were down 1.7% over the last year, the 34th consecutive month with a YoY decline. Renting a home is cheaper than paying a mortgage in all 50 of the largest metro areas in the US. https://t.co/swZ96UHKp8
Energy Price Surge Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices had been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis. CPI...
Mortgage Rates Rebound From Historic Lows to 6.38%
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.38% (highest since Sep 2025) https://t.co/EZVocXbneE
Betting on War: $50M Wager Fuels Conflict Incentives
Polymarket: 70% chance that the US will have troops on the ground in Iran by the end of April. >$50 million wagered on this so far. It shouldn't be legal to "bet" on something like this - you're creating a financial incentive...
US Gas Hits $4.10, Biggest 4‑week Jump in 30 Years
Gas prices in the US rose to $4.10 per gallon last week, their highest level since August 2022. The 33% increase over the last 4 weeks ($3.07/gallon to $4.10/gallon) is the biggest 4-week spike we've seen in the past 30 years....
Fertilizer Prices Surge 52%, Threatening Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since September 2022, rising 52% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. https://t.co/KYmqkbca60
Energy Soars, Financials Plunge: Stagflation’s Sector Split
A stunning 53% spread between the best and worst performing S&P 500 sectors so far this year: -Energy $XLE: +41% -Financials $XLF: -12% This is what stagflation looks like... https://t.co/mjjvgXsRDs
S&P 500 Slides 9%, Longest Correction Since 2022
The S&P 500 is now down 9% from its January peak. This is the biggest correction since the tariff tantrum last April and the longest since the 2022 bear market. $SPX https://t.co/QciAw5ESf1
All Magnificent Seven Stocks Lag S&P 500, Deep Declines
All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year (-8% for Apple to -26% for Microsoft) and underperforming the average stock in the S&P 500 (which is down -1%) by a wide margin. https://t.co/61SEyeq0tV
Iran War Triggers Double‑digit Commodity Price Surges
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... Heating Oil: +77% European Natural Gas: +71% Brent Crude Oil: +58% WTI Crude Oil: +51% Urea: +48% Diesel: +44% Sulfur: +43% Gasoline: +42% Fertilizer: +29% Coal: +21% Palm Oil: +14% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7% US Natural Gas: +6%
Market Crash: Every Listed Asset Plummets Below All‑Time High
% Below All-Time High ExxonMobil: 0% S&P 500: -9% Apple: -14% Gold: -20% Nvidia: -21% Google: -22% Amazon: -23% Tesla: -28% Palantir: -32% Meta: -34% Microsoft: -36% Silver: -43% Bitcoin: -48% Ethereum: -60% MicroStrategy: -77% Fartcoin: -94% Trump Coin: -96% Melania Coin: -99%
S&P Faces Historic Wave of 1%+ Daily Drops
The S&P 500 fell 1.7% on Friday, its 10th daily decline so far this year with a loss above 1%. Expect to see many more of these days in the coming weeks & months - the average year since...
S&P 500 Slides
The S&P 500 is down 7% in the first 59 trading days of 2026, the 14th worst start to a year in history. $SPX https://t.co/giuunxMRVO
Global Inflation Rates Set to Shift Dramatically Soon
This chart is going to look at lot different a month from now. Global Inflation Rates... https://t.co/RrBw1EeUo3
Record February Home Purchase Cancellations Hit 13.7%
42k US home purchases were canceled in February which equates to 13.7% of all homes under contract. That's the highest cancellation percentage for any February on record. https://t.co/QuxiWyB3TE
US Money Supply Jumps 5%—Largest Rise Since 2022
The US Money Supply grew 5% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since June 2022. After a brief hiatus, money printing is back. https://t.co/bnnPEsB9x6
72% Want Congress to Approve Ongoing Iran War
Poll results: 72% of respondents said this is a war and Congress should be required to approve continued military action against Iran... https://t.co/FayWJf10w0
Majority Predict US Recession Within the Year
Poll results: 60% of respondents said the US economy will fall into a recession this year... https://t.co/tNssjMxbdK
War Triggers Soaring Commodity Prices, Gas up 85%
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... European Natural Gas: +85% Heating Oil: +80% Brent Crude Oil: +54% Urea: +48% WTI Crude Oil: +46% Gasoline: +44% Diesel: +42% Sulfur: +25% Coal: +24% Fertilizer: +23% Palm Oil: +13% US Natural Gas: +8% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7%
Massive Bets on US Iran Invasion Raise Ethical Concerns
Polymarket: 60% chance that the US will have troops on the ground in Iran by the end of April. >$22 million wagered on this so far. I don't think it should be legal to "bet" on something like this - you're creating...
Rising Gas Prices Drag Down Discretionary Spending
Energy sector $XLE: +33% YTD Consumer Discretionary sector $XLY: -10% YTD Higher gas prices are expected to reduce discretionary spending. The more you spend at the pump, the less you have to spend elsewhere (travel, restaurants, clothing, etc.). Video: https://t.co/kTI1Olplo7
All Markets Plunge, Crypto Crashes Below All‑Time Highs
% Below All-Time High ExxonMobil: 0% S&P 500: -7% Google: -14% Apple: -14% Nvidia: -19% Gold: -20% Amazon: -21% Meta: -25% Tesla: -26% Palantir: -28% Microsoft: -31% Bitcoin: -44% Silver: -45% Ethereum: -57% MicroStrategy: -75% Fartcoin: -92% Trump Coin: -96% Melania Coin: -99%
7.6% S&P Dip Is Typical, Not Alarming
The S&P 500 is now down 7.6% from its January peak. Is that a lot? Not at all. This is right in line with the median correction off an all-time high since the March 2009 low. We see a decline of this amount...
US Debt Swells $2.8T Since July, Near $40T
The US National Debt has now increased by $2.8 trillion since the Debt Ceiling was raised last July. The Federal Government continues to borrow from our future to spend money like drunken sailors today. Next stop: $40 trillion... https://t.co/rtXuDORPwa
S&P Holds Near High Amid War, Oil Shock
Remarkable with everything that's going on that the S&P 500 is only down 6% from its high. Market seems to be pricing in a short-lived War with Crude Oil crashing back down. This is the hopeful outcome but is the market...
No Tax Increases, $40 Trillion Debt Looms
There's zero talk of raising taxes to fund this. $40 trillion in National Debt coming soon... https://t.co/zauvCi19PA
Energy Surges, Financials Slump: 40% Sector Gap
>40% spread between the best and worst performing sectors so far this year... -Energy $XLE: +31% -Financials $XLF: -11% Video: https://t.co/kTI1Olplo7
Cleveland Fed Predicts 3% CPI, Hikes Outweigh Cuts
The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 3% CPI Inflation reading for March, up from 2.4% in February. There is now a higher probability of a Fed rate HIKE (8%) in April than a rate CUT (0%). https://t.co/yoWBJBbDDN
S&P 500 Faces Frequent >1% Drops Ahead
The S&P 500 fell 1.4% today, its 7th daily decline so far this year with a loss above 1%. Expect to see many more of these days in the coming weeks/months - the average year since 1928 has 29...
Global Inflation Rates Set to Shift Dramatically Next Month
This chart is going to look at lot different a month from now. Global Inflation Rates... https://t.co/97kgL1q8Hx
Australia Raises Rates Again, 25 Bps to 4.10%
Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the second straight month, 25 bps move up to 4.10%. https://t.co/tBFSesl4qo
California Gas Hits $5.53, 49% Above National Average
Gas prices in California are 49% above the US national average. $5.53 per gallon. https://t.co/cdwV8Mxi27
Energy Price Surge Threatens to Reverse US Inflation Decline
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices have been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis......
BDCs Lag While S&P Holds Near January Peak
The last 2 times BDCs were in a bear market (2020 & 2022), the S&P 500 was in one as well. Interesting divergence today with the S&P 500 down only 5% off its January high... Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
