Diversify $10M T‑Bill Portfolio to Reduce Reinvestment Risk
Interesting question - can someone TBill and Chill on $10 million? The answer is: MAYBE? I think a good financial advisor would press this person to take some duration risk, diversify more into equities and longer bonds or alts to mitigate the extreme reinvestment risk of the TBill portfolio….
Escape Velocity Tool Shows Optimal 4.54‑Year Duration
I did a small update on our bond escape velocity tool. This shows the theoretically optimal point on the yield curve (or where your duration risk is limited). We added a shock scenario analysis and historical background on how escape...
Even 2000 Nasdaq Peak Yields 8.2% Annual Returns
My favorite stat about the 1999 tech bubble: If you bought the exact top of the Nasdaq 100 in March 2000 you have generated 8.2% per year since then.
Balancing Stress, Work, and Health: 7 Practical Tips
Everyone keeps me asking me how I'm a stressed out workaholic with a dad bod. Here are my 7 key tips: ....
Powell Earns C+ for Mishandling Transitory Inflation
My final grade for Jerome Powell: C+ He was generally a fine Fed Chairman. But the "transitory" thing has to ding his grade substantially. Yes, easy to say in hindsight, but the Fed failed to be sufficiently countercyclical during the largest...
ALM Software Turns Financial Planning Into Quantifiable Strategy
I created a video walkthrough of our new asset-liability matching software HourglassFP Pro. I know this methodology is new to most financial advisors, but I truly believe ALM is the way good financial planning should be done. This software helps you...
AI‑Powered ALM Tool Cuts Planning to 10 Minutes
I spent a lot of 2025 using a clunky version of GPT to build a pretty sophisticated 3 stage asset-liability matching tool. *TODAY* I took the framework of that tool and used Claude to reconfigure it into a single stage...
Oil Would Need $350 to Trigger 1970s‑style Inflation
My Leading Inflation Index has jumped to 3.95% after the recent surge in oil prices. But even this is not even remotely close to resembling the 1970s. In order to get a 1970s style rate of inflation (10%+) you'd need...
Tariff Threats Spike Energy Prices, Fuel Summer Inflation
This is the tariff playbook all over again. Step 1 - make a crazy threat. Step 2 - make a series of "deals" threatening armageddon two weeks out. The difference here is oil and gas prices won't just revert to...
Sticky Inflation Pushes Rate Cuts to Q3/Q4
Well, the good news in all of this, assuming it's actually coming to a close, is it hasn't lasted long enough to do material impact to the labor market. The bad news is we probably locked in stickier inflation which...
Peaky Blinders Flop; Project Hail Mary Shines Regardless
Peaky Blinders movie disappointed. Project Hail Mary did not...though doesn't need to be seen in a theater. https://t.co/yDjhbsihrK
Shift From Efficient Frontier to Temporal Risk Management
I created a tool to visualize your sequence risk in a portfolio. We talk a lot about the "efficient frontier", but the EF turns investing into a performance chasing and alpha optimization problem. The average investor doesn't care about this...
Retail Investors Miss Institutional Asset-Liability Matching Due to Fee Incentives
As Adam notes, it's interesting that big pensions, banks and insurance companies meticulously manage their portfolios using asset-liability matching process. Meanwhile, retail investors get style and factor investing shoved down their throat in exchange for high fees. Why aren't asset-liability...
Invest in Productive Assets, Not Mere Appreciation
I wrote a short opinion piece in response to the idea that Buffett has been wrong about gold and Bitcoin. Buffett's core argument is that you should build a portfolio around "productive" cash flow generating assets. Don't buy land and...
Foreign Stocks Surge 9.4% Early 2026, Outpacing US
Foreign stocks are off to a scorching start in 2026, continuing their outperformance from 2025: Foreign developed stocks: +9.4% US stocks: +2.2% Will it continue or is this a blip in the otherwise longer underperformance?