Tariff Threats Spike Energy Prices, Fuel Summer Inflation
This is the tariff playbook all over again. Step 1 - make a crazy threat. Step 2 - make a series of "deals" threatening armageddon two weeks out. The difference here is oil and gas prices won't just revert to where they were 6 weeks ago so you're going to have a lasting impact that elevates headline inflation thru Summer. That means no rate cuts and lots of angry consumers who will remember this when they vote in November.
Sticky Inflation Pushes Rate Cuts to Q3/Q4
Well, the good news in all of this, assuming it's actually coming to a close, is it hasn't lasted long enough to do material impact to the labor market. The bad news is we probably locked in stickier inflation which...
Peaky Blinders Flop; Project Hail Mary Shines Regardless
Peaky Blinders movie disappointed. Project Hail Mary did not...though doesn't need to be seen in a theater. https://t.co/yDjhbsihrK
Shift From Efficient Frontier to Temporal Risk Management
I created a tool to visualize your sequence risk in a portfolio. We talk a lot about the "efficient frontier", but the EF turns investing into a performance chasing and alpha optimization problem. The average investor doesn't care about this...
Retail Investors Miss Institutional Asset-Liability Matching Due to Fee Incentives
As Adam notes, it's interesting that big pensions, banks and insurance companies meticulously manage their portfolios using asset-liability matching process. Meanwhile, retail investors get style and factor investing shoved down their throat in exchange for high fees. Why aren't asset-liability...
Invest in Productive Assets, Not Mere Appreciation
I wrote a short opinion piece in response to the idea that Buffett has been wrong about gold and Bitcoin. Buffett's core argument is that you should build a portfolio around "productive" cash flow generating assets. Don't buy land and...
Foreign Stocks Surge 9.4% Early 2026, Outpacing US
Foreign stocks are off to a scorching start in 2026, continuing their outperformance from 2025: Foreign developed stocks: +9.4% US stocks: +2.2% Will it continue or is this a blip in the otherwise longer underperformance?
