David J. Doherty - Latest News and Information
Fintech professional who publishes detailed explainers on dealer hedging mechanics (vanna/charm), volatility dynamics, and OpEx effects.
AI Dev team progress report. I set up 8 agents on a silo’d mini Mac with a private GH project. I spent around a day setting them up and improving the working model. Yesterday I gave them a bunch of tasks via GH issues and they worked through them mostly autonomously. Some paper cuts, some big features. What went well: - Worked though lots of work. Would have taken multiple weeks for me to do by myself - Had a “quant” generate models for valuing financial instruments. Built…
Middle East energy crisis: Qatar: $20B revenue loss from ther facilities being hit. CEO of Qatar energy said it would take 3 years to fix. Dep of War needs $200B to fund Iran war. Irans facilities have also been hit. Trump says “It will...
Anyone got recommendations for beach houses in south Europe? I’m thinking Portugual/Spain/France. I’m specifically not looking for cities, but if it’s not too far from an airport that’s a bit of a bonus
Disposable personal income is rising. Oil price is rising. Budget deficits are rising. Going to be very hard to cut rates
In the 1970s gold was recommended in many places as a 10-15% weighting of your portfolio. Today it’s basically zero. Gold has shot up but if recommended allocations skew higher to follow prices it could be a long term tailwind...
SpaceX potentially IPO’ing on 6/9 (69). Musk wanted to keep his companies private as long as possible so the IPO will set off rumors that private markets can’t shoulder the cashflow needs of SpaceX’s spending. The IPO is allegedly time to align...
It’s hard to see how international countries will cooperate with Trump on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open after 14 months of erratic demands. It’s one thing for Trump to complain about paying for European protection (somewhat understandable) but asking...
Carlyle’s Currie warning on the risks of upward pressure on all commodities. Says hoarding can lead to sustained upward pressure and this marks a regime change, not a spike. References post dotcom bubble (China entrance to WTO; gulf war; etc)...
NY car musings: - Waze naively asking if the pot hole in NYC is still there - NY parking rate model: basically $14 to park your car, $14 to bring it back. Otherwise quite cheap (25c/hr from 8->24hrs) - still a couple meagre...
Kalshi markets on oil futures is crazy because it’s a 2nd derivative. Current oil price-> CL futures (first derivative) -> Kalshi (2nd derivative). Leads to very odd dynamics if Kalshi markets get big enough
