Ernie Tedeschi - Latest News and Information
It’s particularly amazing because we’ve had extensive methodological changes to CPI since the blue line ended, including a major one literally the month after it ended that make this comparison apples-to-oranges.
I basically agree. There are genuine anxiety closets in the labor market worth monitoring but the tenaciousness of wage growth & core services inflation suggest its state is still one of net heat overall. Modeling from the @KansasCityFed estimates we're...
A propos of Powell's comments just now: non-housing services inflation versus ECI wage growth. You can see a bit of a wedge opening up, with nominal wage growth cooling while services inflation stays tenacious. https://t.co/WmtcQV5Cxr
No change to the FOMC's short-run rate projections, but interestingly, median FOMC participant sees long-run growth now at 2% (up from 1.8% in December) and R* at 1.1% (up from 1%). https://t.co/dAHaot3Kk4
Incredibly, Sweden passed a staffing law that went into effect--I'm not making this up--Oct 2022. It requires temp/staffing firms to offer permanent positions after 24 months, & there's legal speculation there it might apply to consulting firms too. 1/2 https://t.co/xwN37kW7ne
The *number* outside the labor force will organically rise as the population ages. It says *zero* about labor market health. A better measure is the participation *rate* of prime-age individuals, which excludes those likeliest to be retired or students. It's near...
@sffed updated their numbers Friday: Strong 2.6% labor productivity growth driven by higher utilization: deeper use of capital & labor, e.g. existing data centers exerting higher CPU loads. To be clear, this is real & it may be AI-related, but it's not...
Over the last 6 months, payroll employment growth has averaged -1K/month while the unemployment rate has risen +0.12pp. Consistent with the idea that we're at a shallow but still slightly-positive breakeven on the NFP side, which we're obviously not clearing over...
NFP swings by industry between Feb 2026 & prior 12M average. Couple of notes: 1. Even adj for Kaiser strike, health care was near-0 in Feb, a large swing down from its prior +36K/M average. 2. Big down swings in Leisure &...
That young workers are broadly seeing a decline in employment rates regardless of education is consistent with our low-churn labor market. Hiring & voluntary quits have corrected from their 2021/22 Great Resignation highs & now young workers are feeling frontline...
AI could be affecting the labor market right now, but it's also important to remember that we're all still living in the shadow of pandemic decisions made years ago. We should treat their downstream effects as at least as strong...
For @stripe's 2025 annual letter released today, we dug into a ton of macro data. One pattern jumps out: the economy is sorting winners and losers faster than before. As @collision put it—”the sorting machine is whirring faster”. /1
Helpful thought-experiment, but undersells: 1) competition & demand elasticity for cheaper code, 2) how fast monetary & fiscal pol move at 10% U3, & 3) wealth effects/reinvestment bolstering productivity & offsetting wage loss. Tail risk yes. Base case no. https://t.co/BDbOcr4sHF
