Frederik Ducrozet - Latest News and Information
Subtle but important point. The ECB's baseline incorporates nearly two rate hikes. The adverse and severe scenarios use the same assumptions, and thus may require more than two hikes to bring inflation back to target. Only makes things sligthly less bad😭
ECB sources suggesting they could hike in April, but if it goes that far I think June is more likely. ECB meeting: 30 April Consumer Expectations Survey (27 March, too early) Survey of Professional Forecasters (4 May, but they’ll get hints) Corporate Telephone...
🇪🇺 Unfortunately for the ECB, and despite the staff best efforts to use a later-than-usual cut-off date, their baseline scenario looks instantly obsolete. Market pricing for inflation is already consistent with the adverse scenarios. The main question is about indirect effects....
🇪🇺 ECB's risks scenarios, including a severe shock generating a mild recession, a rise in unemployment and core inflation peaking at 4%. The latter don't include any monetary policy change as @Lagarde noted, as opposed to the staff which accounts...
🇪🇺 ECB decision more balanced. The GC is "well positioned to navigate this uncertainty", not signalling any imminent move. Risk scenarios to be published at 3:45pm. Key will be "the magnitude of indirect and second-round effects of a stronger and...
🇨🇭 Stronger verbal intervention language from the SNB: "the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased". https://t.co/yuDHGc7oUG https://t.co/wcrzVudyN7
All talk, no action from other central banks this week, except for the RBA which hiked rates to 4.10%, the highest among DM central banks. https://t.co/JKCGcBPwIG
🇺🇸 The year-to-date increase in US gasoline prices is now larger than in 2022. https://t.co/2FtHzNrQpA
🇪🇺 Not only did @KazimirPeter signal a strong ECB hawkish bias, but he said that every meeting should be alive after March. *ECB'S KAZIMIR SAYS RATE HIKE ON IRAN MAY BE CLOSER THAN THOUGHT "I don’t want to speculate about April or...
Markets pricing in rate hikes from the ECB, the BoE... and the SNB. You gotta be kidding me.
“US officials believe a joint release in the range of 300mn-400mn barrels — 25 to 30 per cent of the 1.2bn barrels in the reserve — would be appropriate.”
🇪🇺 Don't think there's much to worry about in today's euro area inflation numbers. Core goods inflation is rising, but several temporary factors drove the upside surprise in services (Olympics effect?), barely offsetting the downside surprises from last months. https://t.co/UqbbT9rLY9
Emmanuel Macron: « Now is the time for the EU to launch a joint borrowing capacity, through eurobonds. » https://t.co/NqqbjjecXk
