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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Price is set on the margin. One underappreciated problem n today's global fixed income markets is that the biggest participants (bank, insco, pension) are indifferent among G10 sovereigns. Local problems relatively small market like UK Gilts can then force global yields higher. https://t.co/31zDFTNIbB
Can you even imagine building a data center in the EU with behind-the-meter power when this could happen at any moment?
Insta-read #FOMC: No change in rates No change in '26 or '27 dots 1x dissent (slight hawkish) "Uncertain implications" of Iran Two-sided risk language
Rates moves from Jan FOMC to today are basically all in the front end https://t.co/z4SHlodCLM
Also, your monthly reminder that PPI doesn't measure what you think it measures, but it is a useful input into PCE.
Few #CPI takeaways: 1) Headline CPI +0.3% in line with exp; core +0.2% MoM also inline with exp. Unrounded core +0.216% 2) Pretty benign inflation read. Recall in recent years there's been some 1Q inflation accelerations; Jan renewed fears of such, but...
Curve shape (white) was completely uncorrelated with level of rates through first week of Iran conflict. That trend changed overnight when 10s peaked ~4.20%. Since then, have seen notable flattening. 1/ https://t.co/zHYcDKsXG6
Quick proof of theory: MTD return as of y'days close has a -41% correlation with today's return. Statistically significant relationship at the 0.01% level. https://t.co/5nNOjJXagQ
Month end rebalancing has slight fixed income SELLING after today's move. That's rare for Feb since new 10yr and 30yr UST issuance usually leads to buying for index rebalancing. It's really all about the equity underperformance MTD. https://t.co/JSSOj5jEOD
Small sector (~3% of USD fixed income), but wild relative flows into munis indicative of HNW demand. https://t.co/tEbLFk9ZiL
I will be joining @CNBC's @michaelsantoli this afternoon at 430p ET for a discussion of the credit markets--including, yes, private credit. Snip from our Outlook 2026. https://t.co/u8NP4oAYoL https://t.co/umYLiLDzTY
Few FOMC minutes takeaways: 1) Cmte basically in line with markets on major economic variables 2) Labor markets no longer outright weakening but remain fragile 3) Inflation decelerating as tariff passthru done, housing has downside (a misread on bad CPI method in Oct?) 1/...
IG credit spreads wider +4bps from late-Jan yet HY wider by only +2bps. Last two days have seen +2.5% equity upside that statistically should mean IG spreads -2bps. May be nothing, may be worries about supply. A "balanced" IG...
