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InterestArb

InterestArb

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Fixed-income/arb trader; posts on arb/special situations including mergers.

WTI Crude Plummets $27 in Two Days
Social•Mar 21, 2026

WTI Crude Plummets $27 in Two Days

Yes, but there is more to it than just that..... such as the $27 spread in CLK26/CLK28 May 26 WTI Crude Oil Futures settled $98.23 May 28 WTI Crude Oil Futures settled $71.23

By InterestArb
US 10‑Yr Yields Rise, 20‑Yr Near 5% Mark
Social•Mar 21, 2026

US 10‑Yr Yields Rise, 20‑Yr Near 5% Mark

UST 10 Yr Notes went home 4.386 on Friday, yield about 10.3bp's higher. 20 Yr Bonds just 2bp's away from that 5% Handle.

By InterestArb
S&P 500 and June E‑Mini Breach Key Support, Risk Downside
Social•Mar 21, 2026

S&P 500 and June E‑Mini Breach Key Support, Risk Downside

Both S&P500 and S&P June E-Mini Futures looked to have violated levels that could lead to additional downside. https://t.co/lo2FDEAZl2

By InterestArb
June S&P 500 E‑Mini Closes Below Key Line, Equities Risk
Social•Mar 19, 2026

June S&P 500 E‑Mini Closes Below Key Line, Equities Risk

A close below the horizontal line shown below on the chart of the June S&P 500 E-Mini may not bode well for equities..... https://t.co/sQT9z0yJfP

By InterestArb
Silver Futures Slip Below $77, Bearish Outlook Persists
Social•Mar 16, 2026

Silver Futures Slip Below $77, Bearish Outlook Persists

Silver Futures: Down >$3.5 to the $77 handle. I feel like the lone or one of the few folks who have remained negative on higher prices (for now) based on a few different factors.

By InterestArb
S&P 500 Poised to Retest Feb 2025 Highs
Social•Mar 15, 2026

S&P 500 Poised to Retest Feb 2025 Highs

S&P 500 Index feeling a tad top heavy, if a couple of nearby lines of support get captured, it could set up a move back toward the the February 2025 highs (6,147) prior to the puke that took out...

By InterestArb
May Futures Collapse, Open Interest Near Zero
Social•Mar 13, 2026

May Futures Collapse, Open Interest Near Zero

Boolish Silver folks watching May Futures drop $3 and getting close to sub $80. If folks really really wanted more physical, they should have stayed long March Futures, the open interest is a measly 875 contracts vs 77,604 in May (FYI...

By InterestArb
Shorts, Not Longs, Control COMEX Silver Deliveries
Social•Mar 12, 2026

Shorts, Not Longs, Control COMEX Silver Deliveries

Silver: The truth about recent Deliveries........ only talking COMEX Guys are posting Bullish comments here regarding Silver deliveries, and folks wanting to take position of the Metal. I wonder if they understand the longs are not in control of the delivery...

By InterestArb
Rate Pressure Drives Treasury Yields Higher
Social•Mar 11, 2026

Rate Pressure Drives Treasury Yields Higher

Tplex: Rate complex under pressure UST 10 Yr Notes 4.20% +6.5bp's Dimes 112-00+ down 14/32's

By InterestArb
Extreme Backwardation Signals Temporary, Overdone Oil Price Spike
Social•Mar 10, 2026

Extreme Backwardation Signals Temporary, Overdone Oil Price Spike

You didn't have to be a genius to look at the extreme backwardation in the Futures curve for crude oil to call the current price spike temporary, and overdone. #CrudeOil

By InterestArb
Oil and Silver Futures Reclaim $80+ Levels
Social•Mar 10, 2026

Oil and Silver Futures Reclaim $80+ Levels

Oil and Silver Futures cross back over in the $80's. Can't make this kinda stuff up if you tried. April Crude $85+, May Silver $89+

By InterestArb
Crude Oil Futures Likely to Stabilize Near $94
Social•Mar 9, 2026

Crude Oil Futures Likely to Stabilize Near $94

Crude Oil Futures could be unchanged soon $93.66 after the high of $119.48 kinda like that day in Silver Futures

By InterestArb
Silver Futures +$5, E‑Minis
Social•Mar 9, 2026

Silver Futures +$5, E‑Minis

Insane moves no longer insane, Silver tame today.... Silver Futures +$5 from LOD E-Minis +132 from LOD

By InterestArb
10‑Year Note Futures
Social•Mar 9, 2026

10‑Year Note Futures

10 Yr Note Futures fall again (-13.5/32's to 112-00+) Since tagging 114 and seeing the UST Active 10 Yr Note fall under 4%, it has been a steady reversal aided by the war in the Middle East. https://t.co/aX13QG6ARo

By InterestArb