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Japan Economy Watch

Japan Economy Watch

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Mostly about Japan, but also international trade and US economic policy

Shunto Provides Little Evidence For BOJ To Hike Rates
Blog•Mar 23, 2026

Shunto Provides Little Evidence For BOJ To Hike Rates

Japan’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) project a 5.26% headline increase for unionized workers, translating to roughly a 3.5% rise in base pay. Across all employees, the average wage gain is about 2.3%, well below the Bank of Japan’s 3% target needed for a 2% inflation rate. Real, inflation‑adjusted wages fell 0.8% this fiscal year and are expected to decline further. The BOJ is weighing these mixed signals as it debates a move toward normalising interest rates amid geopolitical uncertainty.

By Japan Economy Watch
Iran War Worsens BOJ’s Stagflation Dilemma, Postpones Rate Hike
Blog•Mar 8, 2026

Iran War Worsens BOJ’s Stagflation Dilemma, Postpones Rate Hike

The ongoing Iran war is intensifying the Bank of Japan’s stagflation dilemma, forcing a choice between raising rates or maintaining ultra‑low policy for longer. Core inflation excluding food and energy fell further below the BOJ’s 2% target in January, while...

By Japan Economy Watch
Chinese Automakers: Pioneering Technology, But Plunging Domestic Sales & Profits
Blog•Mar 5, 2026

Chinese Automakers: Pioneering Technology, But Plunging Domestic Sales & Profits

Chinese automakers have become the first to mass‑produce EVs featuring three breakthrough technologies: five‑minute charging, solid‑state batteries, and sodium‑ion cells that sidestep critical minerals. Despite this technical edge, their profit margins are collapsing as a fierce price war and excess...

By Japan Economy Watch