John Spencer

John Spencer

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Chair of Urban Warfare Studies; doctrine, TTPs, and equipment in urban operations.

Israel Kills Iran's Senior Intelligence Chief Khatib
SocialMar 18, 2026

Israel Kills Iran's Senior Intelligence Chief Khatib

Israel eliminated another very senior Iranian figure, Iran's intelligence minister, Esmaeil Khatib, last night. Khatib led terrorist activities against American targets (to include assassination attempts of American political leaders and sleeper cells) around the world. “Khatib had been appointed Minister of Intelligence...

By John Spencer
China's Stakes in Iran Are Higher than Expected
SocialMar 18, 2026

China's Stakes in Iran Are Higher than Expected

"China Has Much to Lose in Iran," I had a great talk with the @WSJ @WSJopinion Kate Odell on Iran, China, and more. https://t.co/Ms3i2Z5N7M

By John Spencer
China Realizes Hard Power Needed Beyond Economics
SocialMar 17, 2026

China Realizes Hard Power Needed Beyond Economics

"China Is Learning the Lessons of Hard Power" @ForeignPolicy Great analysis. I agree. https://t.co/lY4cNmw8Do China Is Learning the Lessons of Hard Power Economic strength alone is insufficient If the United States can dismantle that pillar in a region closely tied to China’s energy...

By John Spencer
Israel's Strikes Aim to Enable Iranian Regime Overthrow
SocialMar 17, 2026

Israel's Strikes Aim to Enable Iranian Regime Overthrow

Decapitation of Basij leadership, headquarters/infrastructure strikes, checkpoint hunting. IMO Israel is doing the work to set the conditions for the population to take back their government when the time comes.

By John Spencer
Targeting Iran's Elite May Open Negotiation Path
SocialMar 17, 2026

Targeting Iran's Elite May Open Negotiation Path

Great analysis, I agree with @stavridisj “This is a big deal, if killing Khamenei was a 10, this is a 8 1/2…this is a big deal taking these two out…drilling down below the 4 star, 3 star, 2 star [Iran political...

By John Spencer
Iran’s Nuclear Program Now Fully Crippled, Says Insider
SocialMar 17, 2026

Iran’s Nuclear Program Now Fully Crippled, Says Insider

I don’t do polymarket, but that is not going to happen during this U.S. administration or Israeli government watch. Iran’s entire nuclear program has been attacked (from top scientists, centrifuges, centrifuge manufacturing, weaponization, research centers, and every component of the...

By John Spencer
Weapon List Reveals Civilian‑targeting Actors, Urges Sanctions
SocialMar 17, 2026

Weapon List Reveals Civilian‑targeting Actors, Urges Sanctions

A great list of weapons and their components used to attack civilians and civilian areas in Ukraine. It would make a great addition to sanctions lists for Russia, Iran, and North Korea. There is a list of those who target...

By John Spencer
Seizing Kharg Island Would Checkmate Iran’s Oil Revenue
SocialMar 16, 2026

Seizing Kharg Island Would Checkmate Iran’s Oil Revenue

Taking Kharg Island (variety of ways) "kind of checkmate" - General (ret) Jack Keane, Chairman @TheStudyofWar , on @FoxNews "The Straits of Hormuz eventually will be a problem that will be solved, but not immediately. Kharg Island; Kharg Island,...

By John Spencer
China's Military Gear Proves Inferior in Recent Wars
SocialMar 16, 2026

China's Military Gear Proves Inferior in Recent Wars

Like I wrote about last week, China's military equipment has been shown to be inferior in multiple recent and ongoing conflicts. https://t.co/zXE50ZTq1t

By John Spencer
Iran's War Weakens Its Power, Boosts Regional Security
SocialMar 16, 2026

Iran's War Weakens Its Power, Boosts Regional Security

I fully agree. Iran will emerge from this war weaker. The United States, our forces in the region, Israel, and our partners will ultimately be more secure. Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities, its long-held assumption that it could build forces...

By John Spencer
China Risks Belt‑Road Investments as US‑Israel Iran Conflict Escalates
SocialMar 16, 2026

China Risks Belt‑Road Investments as US‑Israel Iran Conflict Escalates

"China Has a Lot to Lose in the U.S.-Israel War on Iran," my latest in @WSJ @WSJopinion The U.S.-Israel war against Iran isn’t only reshaping security and the balance of power in the Middle East. Its stakes are also high...

By John Spencer
Global Race Accelerates Development of Directed Energy Weapons
SocialMar 16, 2026

Global Race Accelerates Development of Directed Energy Weapons

Yes, and AeroVironment is not the only manufacture of directed energy weapons. Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems manufacturers the drone and missile proven Iron Beam. India’s DRDO working aggressively on directed energy weapons (such as the 30kW laser-DEW Mk-II(A) and...

By John Spencer
War Appears Simple, Yet Its Complexity Defies Oversimplification
SocialMar 16, 2026

War Appears Simple, Yet Its Complexity Defies Oversimplification

“Everything in war is very simple, but the simplest thing is difficult.” - Carl von Clausewitz Be mindful of “analysts” or media that oversimplify strategy, war,’warfare while not recognizing the uncertainty, fog and friction, complexity of geopolitics, and all the information...

By John Spencer
China Bears Brunt of US‑Israel‑Iran Conflict
SocialMar 15, 2026

China Bears Brunt of US‑Israel‑Iran Conflict

"China is the biggest loser in all of this [U.S./Israel-Iran War]...the reason we are having this conversation. Iran's nuclear progress like centrifuge manufacturing - China...ballistic missiles production - China." my talk tonight with @PoloSandovalCNN @CNN https://t.co/jN0HZ51bVz

By John Spencer
Self‑styled Military Expert Clueless About Strategic Planning
SocialMar 14, 2026

Self‑styled Military Expert Clueless About Strategic Planning

Imagine a self proclaimed “military expert” telling his followers that in all of the U.S. National Security Council, Joint Staff, CENTCOM, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), and JTF staff, they did not plan for scenarios in the Strait of...

By John Spencer
War Zones Serve as Global Arms Showroom
SocialMar 14, 2026

War Zones Serve as Global Arms Showroom

“The battlefield is the ultimate arms exhibition. Countries that spend billions of dollars on military equipment…Every destroyed radar, every neutralized air defense battery, and every successful penetration of an air defense network sends a signal to the global defense market”

By John Spencer
Gulf States Seek Ukraine's Defense Expertise Amid Iranian Threat
SocialMar 14, 2026

Gulf States Seek Ukraine's Defense Expertise Amid Iranian Threat

“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” – Napoleon Iran threatening Ukraine only reinforces why many Gulf states are seeking Ukraine’s expertise after years of defending against Iranian drones and Russian missiles now being used against sovereign countries...

By John Spencer
Assessing Operation Epic Fury's Success in Securing Hormuz Traffic
SocialMar 13, 2026

Assessing Operation Epic Fury's Success in Securing Hormuz Traffic

I joined @benshapiro this morning to discuss how Operation Epic Fury is going, are we achieving our objectives, will we be able to ensure traffic in the Straights of Hormuz?

By John Spencer
U.S. Moves to End 47‑Year Iran Conflict
SocialMar 12, 2026

U.S. Moves to End 47‑Year Iran Conflict

The objectives are in fact clear and restated almost daily. Personally, I appreciate the U.S. taking steps to stop a 47 year war against the U.S., our troops, our interests so my son and my daughters do not have to...

By John Spencer
US Military Dominance Exposed as China Falters Globally
SocialMar 12, 2026

US Military Dominance Exposed as China Falters Globally

I agree with this analysis, "US military supremacy shines as China fails big in Iran, Venezuela [Pakistan]" @thehill https://t.co/jG7J0FVegY "China has become the laughingstock of the international community...In less than a year, their system has failed catastrophically in Pakistan, in Venezuela...

By John Spencer
Ukraine’s $1,000 Drones Inspire Global Defense Innovation
SocialMar 12, 2026

Ukraine’s $1,000 Drones Inspire Global Defense Innovation

"These are Ukraine’s $1,000 interceptor drones the Pentagon [and now many countries] wants to buy." https://t.co/UK44ifiKp8 Through surviving daily Russian attacks / war crimes from missiles and drones with whatever means they could acquire comes an innovation that will save many...

By John Spencer
U.S. Crude Exports Serve as West’s Strategic Reserve
SocialMar 12, 2026

U.S. Crude Exports Serve as West’s Strategic Reserve

America’s Strategic Oil Exports @WSJ Great and important read. I still believe the WSJ Editorial Board does some of the most balanced and informed analysis in the media. https://t.co/sxJ6f76VCl The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that its 32 member countries will...

By John Spencer
Iranian Rocket Near Jerusalem's Sacred Sites Sparks Prayer
SocialMar 12, 2026

Iranian Rocket Near Jerusalem's Sacred Sites Sparks Prayer

Iranian rocket lands "a few hundred meters from the Old City, the Western Wall, Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Church of the Holy Sepulchre." I have warned about this in the past. The reckless and desperate behavior of the Islamic regime in...

By John Spencer
US‑Israel Operation
SocialMar 12, 2026

US‑Israel Operation

Fully agree with General Petraeus. The U.S. and Israel have had enormous success. The operation continues. The straights of Hormuz a significant variable at the moment.

By John Spencer
Delaying Action Costs More: Strategy and Uncertainty Discussed
SocialMar 11, 2026

Delaying Action Costs More: Strategy and Uncertainty Discussed

"Can America and Israel finish the job? A conversation with John Spencer." I had a great talk w/ my dear friend @havivrettiggur on his "Ask Haviv Anything" podcast. We talk about strategy, uncertainty, and the price of waiting too long...

By John Spencer
Israel, U.S. Seek Conditions, Not War, for Iran Regime Change
SocialMar 11, 2026

Israel, U.S. Seek Conditions, Not War, for Iran Regime Change

Both Israel and U.S. are clear on this. "Iran regime change not military goal, creating conditions for it is" https://t.co/LsttUiENZi

By John Spencer
Hezbollah Launches 100 Rockets; Lebanon Fails to Curb Group
SocialMar 11, 2026

Hezbollah Launches 100 Rockets; Lebanon Fails to Curb Group

Hezbollah fired roughly 100 rockets into Israel. The group remains undeterred and continues to follow the orders of the Iranian regime. Lebanon has failed to disarm Hezbollah or assert sovereignty over its own territory.

By John Spencer
Goal: Destroy Navy, Halt Missiles, Deny Iran Nuclear Weapons
SocialMar 10, 2026

Goal: Destroy Navy, Halt Missiles, Deny Iran Nuclear Weapons

"Our objectives...the same as day I gave my first briefing here on Operation Epic Fury...missile and their ability to make them, two destroy their navy, and three permeant deny Iran nuclear weapons, forever." @SecWar https://t.co/4T9ht30KJZ

By John Spencer
New Proof of India's Deep Damage in Pakistan
SocialMar 10, 2026

New Proof of India's Deep Damage in Pakistan

More evidence of the damage India caused deep in Pakistan during the 2025 Operation Sindoor.

By John Spencer
US and Israel Cripple Iran's Missile, Nuclear Assets
SocialMar 10, 2026

US and Israel Cripple Iran's Missile, Nuclear Assets

.@CENTCOM says U.S. forces have struck over 5,000 targets and sunk or damaged over 50 ships in the last 10 days. Add Israel's over 3,000 targets to that and you get a lot of capability and resources lost for the...

By John Spencer
Iran's Military Crumbling as US‑Israel Gains Ground
SocialMar 10, 2026

Iran's Military Crumbling as US‑Israel Gains Ground

I agree. "Iran Isn't Winning This War," @WSJ editorial board. https://t.co/twzXYJsVjZ The reality inside Iran and the region is that the U.S. and Israel continue to make progress. The regime loses more of its military each day, along with the ability...

By John Spencer
Trump Threatens to Endorse Killing Iran's New Leader
SocialMar 9, 2026

Trump Threatens to Endorse Killing Iran's New Leader

“President Trump…would back the killing of new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei if he proves unwilling to cede to U.S. demands” @WSJ https://t.co/0jKyXatr7r

By John Spencer
Iran's Attack on Turkey Risks NATO Escalation, Turkey Holds Back
SocialMar 9, 2026

Iran's Attack on Turkey Risks NATO Escalation, Turkey Holds Back

Major mistake by Iran to attack Turkey (NATO) and Azerbaijan. https://t.co/vImYh9g8cV Turkey did not immediately comment on any formal steps within NATO. It had previously said it had no intention of invoking the bloc's Article 4 that would call allies to consult...

By John Spencer
Iran's Plan to Outpace US‑Israel War Control Failing
SocialMar 8, 2026

Iran's Plan to Outpace US‑Israel War Control Failing

“In other words, Iran hoped to widen the war faster than the United States and Israel could control it. So far, that strategy appears to be failing.”

By John Spencer
Iran's Regime Now Reacts, No Longer Drives War
SocialMar 8, 2026

Iran's Regime Now Reacts, No Longer Drives War

“The Islamic regime in Iran is no longer shaping this war. It is reacting to it.”

By John Spencer
Trump’s “Unconditional Surrender” Targets Iran’s Weapons, Not Regime
SocialMar 7, 2026

Trump’s “Unconditional Surrender” Targets Iran’s Weapons, Not Regime

"And yes, President Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender” is consistent with the political objectives stated from the beginning of the war. It does not necessarily mean the surrender of the Iranian state. It means the unconditional end of the behaviors...

By John Spencer
AI Accelerates US Iran Operations, Boosting Analyst Efficiency
SocialMar 7, 2026

AI Accelerates US Iran Operations, Boosting Analyst Efficiency

“US military relying on AI as tool to speed Iran operations,” @business One of the many reasons the AI race is critical for the U.S. to lead. https://t.co/oOKSi9AgHM In the Iran campaign, AI technology has played a critical role by supporting the...

By John Spencer
US‑Israel Blitz Reveals Next‑Gen Allied Combat Tactics
SocialMar 7, 2026

US‑Israel Blitz Reveals Next‑Gen Allied Combat Tactics

"The future of war? US-Israel blitz on Iran unveils next-gen allied combat." @FoxNews I had a great conversation with @EfratLachter about the U.S.-Israel cooperation and performance in the war. https://t.co/vwCdVtwpLx

By John Spencer
Lebanese Justice Minister to Pursue Hezbollah Leader Prosecutor
SocialMar 7, 2026

Lebanese Justice Minister to Pursue Hezbollah Leader Prosecutor

Big if it happens: The Lebanese Minister of Justice will request the prosecution of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah.

By John Spencer
US‑Israel Air Dominance Enables Massive JDAM Strikes
SocialMar 6, 2026

US‑Israel Air Dominance Enables Massive JDAM Strikes

Like @SecWar said, now that the U.S. and Israel have air superiority if not supremacy, a much greater larger amount of attacks using large diameter JDAMs can occur.

By John Spencer
Reject Politicized Criticism; Focus on Official War Goals
SocialMar 6, 2026

Reject Politicized Criticism; Focus on Official War Goals

Crappy analysis. I agree strategy and strategic goals should be debated in the public and by our elected officials. But I personally can't stand politicized, biased, and inaccurate criticism viewed by some as analysis about the U.S. war goals in...

By John Spencer
Israel Strikes Deep Tehran IRGC Command Tunnel
SocialMar 6, 2026

Israel Strikes Deep Tehran IRGC Command Tunnel

More than 50 Israeli aircraft dropped bunker busting and penetrating precision bombs (a lot of them) on a deep buried military tunnel complex in Tehran used by the IRGC Supreme Command (whoever that is right now). No BDA yet. @jconricus

By John Spencer
Kurdish Militias Likely to Spark Iran Ground War
SocialMar 6, 2026

Kurdish Militias Likely to Spark Iran Ground War

Why the First Shots in an Iran Ground War Could Come From the Kurds @WSJ https://t.co/iCzYnG2yEs If a ground war is to be fought in Iran, the first shots could be fired in the country’s Kurdish areas, where militias say they...

By John Spencer
US Wins Over Iran, Reshapes Global Oil Power
SocialMar 6, 2026

US Wins Over Iran, Reshapes Global Oil Power

"U.S. Success Against Iran Could Be a Game Changer for World Oil Security," @WSJ https://t.co/ICXqOkIlg2 If Iran, along with Venezuela, is soon ruled by a regime friendly or at least not hostile toward the U.S., that would neutralize two oil exporters...

By John Spencer
Israel Used Fake Car Sightings to Mask Iran Strike
SocialMar 6, 2026

Israel Used Fake Car Sightings to Mask Iran Strike

Details into the Israeli (for sure there was a U.S. version) deception operation before the opening strike against Iran.

By John Spencer
Kurdish Peshmerga Will Fight Vigorously Against Iran
SocialMar 6, 2026

Kurdish Peshmerga Will Fight Vigorously Against Iran

When my unit jumped into Northern Iraq in 2003 during the invasion of Iraq, we linked up with the Kurdish Peshmerga, who fought alongside American forces all the way south to Kirkuk. The Kurds are a proud people and a warrior...

By John Spencer
New AI‑Driven Weapons Define Future Warfare
SocialMar 5, 2026

New AI‑Driven Weapons Define Future Warfare

AI-enabled kill chains, swarming drones, high-energy lasers and stealth clusters...the weapons pummeling Iran," my latest @DailyMail https://t.co/5DPTssFCRC World War I introduced the tank and large-scale air combat. World War II debuted radar, jet aircraft, and the atomic bomb. The Gulf War...

By John Spencer
Iran’s Underground Missile Bases Exposed, Become Strategic Liabilities
SocialMar 5, 2026

Iran’s Underground Missile Bases Exposed, Become Strategic Liabilities

"Iran’s Underground ‘Missile Cities’ Have Become One of Its Biggest Vulnerabilities" @WSJ The underground has advantages and disadvantages. #undergroundwarfare https://t.co/TgMup6jVwm Almost all of the dozens of missile bases are underground but have aboveground buildings, roads and entrances that make it possible to...

By John Spencer
Iran's War Rhetoric Ignored After Defeat by Israel
SocialMar 5, 2026

Iran's War Rhetoric Ignored After Defeat by Israel

“Iran: We are “Waiting” [and ready] for U.S. Ground Evasion.” @FoxNews unlikely, but bookmark as the example of delusional and irrational in war. Iran was dominated by Israel in June 2025. And now faces the greatest military on earth,...

By John Spencer