There are 3 options atm: 1. Call it a victory destroy as much as possible and go home - a disaster for the west. 2. USA secures the strait alone - a potential disaster for USA and especially a political disaster for Trump. 3. Wait and see. Don't do 1. Don't do 2. Leaves the optionality to open the Strait later, which is the clear win for the west. This gives everybody time to think things over. https://t.co/FGHomUNCI7

Trump prepares to end the campaign in Iran, but offers to help an international coalition policing the Gulf and the strait. Very important for Europa to think long term here. If USA leaves now, the Gulf will no longer be...
This is the US off-ramp plan. However the best solution for the west is a joint securitization of Hormuz (secures the strait, makes control over Iran permanent, and creates leverage towards China) US is unlikely to do this alone, thus they...

Here is what I think will happen if USA can't keep strait of Hormuz open - I do think that USA will have a very low threshold for pain in the Gulf because Trump is elected on avoiding 'forever wars'....
Countries bordering Russia is not going to rely on defense from Europe in the future. Poland, the Baltic, Finland and Ukraine are not going to be hardliners against USA
I think it is much more a matter of taking a side. If China starts sending weapons then European planes in the sky over Iran will matter, because China supports shooting down European planes
If China is doing this, USA might be forced to destroy Kharg and go home and leave the mess. If China and Russia supports Iran and Europa is not helping USA, then USA cannot secure a stable solution, but must...
Context is that China needs oil from Iran. The cacth22 is: 1. China helps: USA wants to get a fast offramp and avoid boots on the ground - will happen if China helps (then Russia is in a Catch22). China is unlikely...
Maybe sounds like just words, but countries not chipping in here are running a risk. Let us look at the US perspective: 1. Iran is a terroist state, that has been supporting terroism for decades, had a 'death over...
A short video, sharing my view on: 1. What will make this market bottom 2. How to trade technology stocks when fear is in the market. https://t.co/g39ErSlEhI