The software debt wall: * $40B maturing 2028, mostly junk-rated * 53% rated B- or lower * a third of them already trading at 80¢ on the dollar * distressed software loans doubled in jan to a record $25B * banks now restricting lending to private credit funds in the sector These loans were issued in 2021 at near-zero rates. They refinance into 5%+ while AI disintermediates the product.
Oil shock is reversing (Strait clearing narrative), curve flattening continues (rate hikes priced in), credit widening (HY spread breakout), and rent collapse vindicates office REIT pressure. De-escalation moves favor equities; watch if $94 oil holds or bounces.
YouTube’s ad revenue in 2025 was $40.4B. More than Disney, NBC, Paramount, and WBD’s combined. (@THR)