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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
The BEA’s decision to change legal services source data in the PCE from CPI (around 11.3% in Jan) to PPI (1.8% in Jan) cut the core PCE MoM chg by 8bps (would have been 0.44% vs 0.36%). Could defend move on the merits (not political) but timing & lack of heads up were troubling. https://t.co/Cnbyz5PdC5
It missed b/c of a methodological change that the BEA introduced today that cut the core PCE by about a tenth relative to expectations. And even then, it still rounded to 0.4%.
The peak for the PCE's core goods x-autos series was 5.3% YoY in 2022. We're not there , but it will jump from 2.3% in Jan26 to 2.9% in Feb26 tks to a 1.0% MoM surge. Outside of covid, it's...
Tmrw, we'll see the YoY core CPI vs YoY core PCE spread widen to around -65bps, which would be the 3rd largest in four decades. Shelter cooling helped to narrow the spread over the last 18m to about +20bps in...
We still need Feb PPI , but Feb core PCE looks much stronger than Feb core CPI. On Friday, Jan core PCE will also be stronger than Jan core CPI. This is not shelter. Instead, it reflects the differences in...
The birth-death model added -46k fewer jobs to the NSA tally this Feb vs last Feb, but it also added +44k to Jan26 vs Jan25. It just shifted around job growth in the first 2 months. Blaming B/D for the...
ISM prices surged by 11.5 pts to 70.5, highest since Jun 2022. ISM said higher px for steel & alumin drove px index. That is unsurprising & has been evident in PPI data since Liberation Day. For manufacturers, the cost...
For PPI, will be curious to see if we get the potential upside risk from offices of physicians (near-record jump in Medicare reimbursement rates of >3% could boost this item) & health insurance (expiration of ACA subsidies). IF those materialize,...
