Brent Crude Nears $110, Signaling Economic Strain
Behold, the global economy cracking. Brent crude approaching $110/bbl, up >$16 higher since Friday’s close. https://t.co/exH8mOBUXy
Oil Prices Surpass $100, Market Still Surging
Crude >$100 I’d say here we go, but honestly can’t believe we’re still going. https://t.co/14yKcmsMOq
Iraq's Shut‑in Oil Exceeds Feared Russian Supply Loss
The volume of crude production that Iraq has *already* shut-in is larger than the peak of *feared* [but never realized] Russian supply loss in early 2022 that spiked crude prices above $120 per barrel.
Hormuz Traffic Set to Return, but Irregular Amid War
I, too, believe that shopping traffic through the Strait will begin to pick up again, but “regular” isn’t a word that will apply again so long as the war continues And ships will only do so because prices and economic incentives...
Trump-Era Sanctions Gave China Cheap Oil, Now Supply Wanes
This galaxy brain it’s-all-about-China’s-oil talking point drives me *insane* Only reason China was able to buy so much discounted crude from Ven/Irn/Ruz was because of US sanctions, largely imposed by the Trump admin(!), which scared off other buyers and left them...
One Tanker Passes; Massive Scale‑up Needed Amid Supply Backlog
Wow, one whole large tanker?! Need to up that >100-fold and just simply to return to normal. And that’s not counting the massive backlog of ships, disruptions, and durable damage to both regional infrastructure and global supply chains that will take months...
US, Israel Plan Special Forces Raid on Iran's Uranium
Axios: “The US and Israel have discussed sending special forces into Iran to secure its stockpile of highly enriched uranium at a later stage of the war” 👀⏰ Nuclear material a predictable a boots-on-the-ground pretext, but what’s most worrying to me...
Guyana and Exxon Profit From Venezuela's Turmoil
Been saying this for a while: Guyana (and by extension Exxon) was a big collateral winner of Venezuela developments. https://t.co/QzfRIJKK1F
Trump's Presidency Keeps Oil Prices Higher, OPEC+ Cuts Production
The best—only?—argument that Trump is bearish for oil prices is that OPEC+ wouldn't have hiked crude production as aggressively last year in a world in which Harris was sitting in the White House.
Rising Crude-on-Water Could Prevent Oil Price Collapse
Roses are red, violets are blue. You can avoid a price collapse despite an oil glut if crude on water's rising, too. 💘 Happy Valentine's Day, oil watchers.
US Ramps up Pressure, Threatens Chinese Oil Imports
Maximum Pressure 2: More max, more pressure, another round of threatening Chinese sanctioned oil imports. https://t.co/UNNBJOFLTx
Enbridge Rejects West Coast Bitumen Pipeline Over Jurisdiction Risks
Enbridge a no on appetite to build proposed bitumen pipeline to Canada’s west coast “I don’t think investors or the infrastructure companies should be taking on the risk of development in jurisdictions that have historically created a challenge” Still some N Gateway...
Crude Swings on Hormuz Alert, US‑Iran Talks, Venezuela Relief
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈📉Crude prices rise on Hormuz advisory before falling back on the prospect of longer US-Iran talks, with headlines dotted with a flurry of US sanctions relief on Venezuela’s oil sector. Summary below, link to full report in...
Key Differences Between OFAC's New GL
This is actually the best way to describe the difference between GL 49 and GL 50 (the two Venezuela-related General Licenses issued by OFAC today)
Notable Absentees Among Firms Granted Venezuelan Upstream Access
Can't help but notice who ISN'T on this list of companies who just gained access to invest and operate in Venezuelan upstream. https://t.co/qrLcy4bd48
Argus Targets Venezuelan Crude for U.S. Gulf Delivery
This is an interesting oil market transparency development. Argus "will assess three grades of Venezuelan crude oil, Merey, Hamaca and Boscan, for delivery to the U.S. Gulf coast, which Argus said is now the most likely destination for Venezuelan cargoes" https://t.co/RaKzvH53Rp
Brent Option Skew Halves, Signaling Lower Iran Risk
Brent crude option skew—which many have been treating as a proxy of oil market Iran risk perception (see comp to June 2025)—continues to deflate. Down more than half from a week ago, with prices down ~$3/bbl from Wednesday high. Gives a sense...
Singapore Light Distillate Stocks Surge to Record Levels
Singaporean light distillate (eg gasoline/naphtha) inventories are *very* high right now. (seasonal chart, million barrels) https://t.co/ZgYbX7ZU9F
Venezuelan Production Growth Inflated by Low Baseline
30-40% growth *from what baseline*?! Venezuelan production has been all over the map over the past few months—some very flattering base effects from which to cherry pick.
Physical Possibility ≠ Economic Viability in Oil Markets
Again I’ll say: Virtually anything is physically *possible* in the oil market. Far fewer things are economically viable, let alone profitable. This is a nonsense take.
Tie US Aid to Venezuela Publishing Detailed
Secretary Wright, the only way to save Venezuela's oil industry—and I say this as an entirely disinterested party—is to tie any US support to reqs that the VZ oil ministry publicly publish regular, detailed oil industry statistics Simple bulk CSV file...
Supply Dynamics, Not Demand Forecast, Drive Oil Market
Sure, the IEA demand forecast update was negative... but pretty inconsequential in the scheme of the supply developments that are actually currently driving the oil market. https://t.co/P0KD7cPlR4
Venezuela's Oil Shifts: Implications for Canada Discussed in Calgary
I’ll be in Calgary in early March for a discussion hosted by the Canadian Heavy Oil Association about what recent developments in Venezuela mean for Canada’s oil industry. Join us! And drop me a line if you want to grab a...
US Canadian Crude Imports Plateau; Midwest Saturated, Gulf Pressure Wanes
🇨🇦🛢️🇺🇸 US Canadian crude imports by importing region and crude grade quality Total US plateauing/rolling over Midwest still key Canadian market, but entirely saturated USGC was the pressure valve, but fell back when TMX opened (first went to West Coast, now increasingly China)...
Western Canadian Refineries Thrive, Ontario Slows, East Rebounds
🇨🇦🏭⛽️ Canadian refineries are running strong in the West, have seen operations slip faster than seasonally normal in Ontario, and have had a bouncing start to the year in Quebec & Eastern Canada. https://t.co/CY8K1qOKIh
US Refineries Pivot From Canadian to Venezuelan Heavy Crude
US refinery heavy crude sourcing from Canada (red) vs Venezuela (pink), compared to refinery capacity (blue) 2010 on the left, 2024 on the right https://t.co/nKOX5T7tGn
Gulf Coast Refineries Boost Capacity, Replace Imports with Shale Oil
US Gulf Coast refineries (PADD3) have continued to grow distillation capacity while dramatically shrinking imports, displacing imported light and medium crudes with domestic light tight oil from the Shale Patch https://t.co/6EezXrbiQL
Brent Futures Steepen Backwardation, WTI Weakens
The Brent (white) and WTI (blue) futures curves are telling rhyming but importantly different stories right now Both have a backwardated front, depressed belly into contango past 2027 But Brent curve seeing steepening prompt backwardation (70c/bbl now) while WTI weakening (20c) https://t.co/5ZyF18ZPDO
Mexico’s Refineries Hit Highest Crude Processing Since 2014
🇲🇽🏭 Mexican refineries are processing more crude right now than any time since 2014. Thanks most obviously to the start-up of the Dos Bocas refinery, but helped along by high utilization across other large facilities. https://t.co/wEpnmiM8He
Canadian Oil Output Hits Record, Boosting Continental Production
📊 Fresh N. American Oil Data 📊 Continental petroleum output hits fresh high-water mark with Canadian supply reaching all-time highs amidst a bounceback in oilsands activity, offsetting flat-ish production in the US and Mexico Check out the Full report: https://t.co/7Xk7El7r1l