Traders Front‑Run Crude Market Before Trump’s Iran Threats
Quite the chart from @axios on suspected crude market front-running ahead of Trump’s major Iran War proclamations. https://t.co/lZY1JkMKCp
Live on Bloomberg: Oil Markets and Iran War Outlook
Heads up that I'll be LIVE on @BNNBloomberg to talk oil markets and the [??end of??] the Iran War this morning at 11:15am ET. https://t.co/bqG3IGwkQS
Gulf Shut‑ins Cut Iraq, Iran Output by ~13 MMbpd
GULF SHUT-IN UPDATE: Brings Iraq's confirmed shut-ins to ~3.5 MMbpd as of yesterday, lifts overall confirmed *crude* Iran War output shut-ins to ~9.5 MMbpd. Gas condensate/NGL output losses are on top of that. ~200 million barrels of expected crude won't be...
Spot Dubai Crude Holds Premium Amid Hormuz Uncertainty
Balance of the month cash Dubai crude barrels (white line) still trading higher than the prompt Oman futures (blue) I'm seeing quoted this morning, which are down more sharply, but spot Middle East barrels certainly feeling less pressure and all...
Analysts Await Hormuz Reopening Amid Iran War Headlines
Every oil analyst reading the Iran War's done headlines and watching the Iran War's done price action waiting for the Strait of Hormuz to actually begin flowing again https://t.co/4kBqUoI2Np
Iran Rejects Ceasefire, Keeps Strait Closed for Strategic Gain
Iran reportedly “focused on achieving strategic objectives”, “does not accept a ceasefire”, and won’t “enter such a process with parties that violate agreements” Iran will negotiate but as long as the Strait remains closed time is on Tehran’s side, and that’s...
Uncertain Govt Action; Physical Oil Markets Soon Prevail
I’m asked frequently about whether governments are intervening in futures markets already, and I have no idea nor have I seen any evidence. But, if they are and if Hormuz remains shut, it’ll only work for a bit longer before physical...
Everyone Navigates Iran War Oil Market Differently
No judgment. We’re all dealing with the Iran War oil market in our own way.
Trump Pushes Iran Ceasefire to Keep Strait Open
So Trump admin is [rightly] panicking about the Strait of Hormuz so they’re going to try to get Iran to agree to a 1-month ceasefire to negotiate during which I’m sure Trump wants the Strait open Iran’s main leverage is the...
High Oil Prices and Weak Loonie Boost Canadian Producers
Soaring oil prices, tight WCS differentials, and a lagging Loonie is a fantastic combination for Canadian oil producers.
Hormuz Crisis Sparks Global Oil Shockwave Across Time
I've been describing the Hormuz crisis as a detonation in spacetime. It hit spot crude markets in the Middle East and refined products markets in Asia first. Then the shockwave travels further through time down the delivery curve, and out geographically toward...
Oil Shortage Anywhere Hits All Nations Equally
The trouble with looking at the current Hormuz crisis through the lens of which countries have historically imported the volumes is that all of these countries will now be rabidly bidding for all the other barrels. A barrel of oil lost...
Iran Demands Guarantees, Rejects Missile Limits in Talks
Reuters on Tehran's tougher negotiating stance: - Iran would seek guarantees against future attacks - Refuse limits on missile programme - Trump says talks have already taken place, Iran denies - Control over Hormuz would be a key issue - Israel believe US-Iran agreement unlikely
Kuwait's Shutdown Could Cost over 100M barrelsKuwait's Shutdown Could Cost over 100M Barrels
Helpful timeline info from @Amena__Bakr on restart timelines for shut-in production. At lest count Kuwait had already shut in 1.6 MMbpd of production (likely higher by now), roughly 30 million barrels unproduced by end-March. Let's be generous and use 3 months from...
Oil Expert Claims Hormuz Strait Unnecessary, Misreads Market
Guy who clearly understands how oil markets work: "see, we never needed the Strait of Hormuz 😏"
Closing the Strait Threatens Demand, Requires Immediate Action
This is how you begin to destroy demand. Much more will be necessary if the Strait doesn't reopen soon.
Hormuz Closure Threatens 15 Million‑
Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed and will the global oil industry drain down ~15 million barrels of petroleum stocks outside the Middle East today alone because of it? https://t.co/YQqTHgKaN9
US Escalates Presence as Iran Negotiations Linger
Truly hope that this is really almost over. But can't help but remember all the way back to a month ago when the Trump admin was "negotiating" with Iran while accumulating military assets in the region. More marines will also arrive in...
Trump’s Victory: Strategic Iran Containment or Energy Crisis Manipulation?
I can't keep track. Is Trump winning because he achieved his goals and Iran is now entirely contained and Hormuz is open by next week? Or is Trump winning because he meant to trigger the largest energy crisis in history to flex...
Gulf Shut‑ins Could Cut 200 M Barrels in First Month
Current Gulf production shut ins alone, if held at current levels through end-March, will result in roughly 200 million barrels of crude *not being produced* over the first ~30 days of the Iran War Not simply displaced supply, but barrels that...
Trump Muses Joint Control of Hormuz with Iran
Reporter: “what about the Strait of Hormuz, who is going to be in control of that?” Trump: “uhhh, be jointly controlled …” Reporter: “by who?” Trump: “maybe me … me and the Ayatollah” https://t.co/hcwRS5PbZf
Hormuz Oil Flow Stalled, Supply Strain Persists
This is correct So much of the world now can increasingly just be driven by overconfidently posting through it—but not oil, not for long Hormuz flow still hasn't resumed and every day we're shedding more oil from the system That'll catch up—can't jawbone...
Unblocking Hormuz Strait May Avert Global Depression
🤙🏻 Call me, beep me, if you want to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and unwind the largest energy supply shock in history to avoid a global depression.
Trump’s Flip‑flop on Iran Rattles Oil Prices
> Trump threatens to attack Iranian power plants, thrust region further down path of major facility attacks > Crude price flat out of weekend > Trump says now he isn’t going to attack Iranian power plants > Crude price falls $16/bbl https://t.co/e81KQnsv14
Trump’s Iran Comments Send Brent Down $16
An off ramp? A TACO? Another bait and switch? Brent cratered ~$16/bbl on Trump’s latest post talking about “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. https://t.co/6dfE8zEiRE
Gulf Oil Output Could Fall 6.5 MMbpd in March
If held flat at current shut-in levels of around 9 MMbpd, Gulf crude oil production would be down by ~6.5 million on the month in March. Balance math gets much uglier when these run for a full month or more—and things...
Hormuz Blockade's Impact Varies: Short-Term Mild, Long-Term Catastrophic
On intensity, absolutely true. I think the overall effect will be less than the energy shocks of the 1970s if this ends **today** but if the Hormuz stoppage stretches out for months it'll blow the other two out of the water.
Lock in $5 per Gasoline Can via Spot Arbitrage
You can hold that garbage can full of gasoline and wait for higher prices, but risk Trump TACOing and prices dumping. Or you can simply sell the garbage can of gasoline into spot and buy the same garbage can back for...
Iran's Petrodollar Attack Meets 10 M
"Iran is going after the petrodollar system" Brother, they've already shut in 10 million barrels per day of Gulf crude oil production capacity. What petro?
Iranian Oil Claim Covers only One Week, Now Week Four
Even if this were true (which, naw), the 140 million barrels of Iranian oil on water Bessent cites here would offset roughly one week of Hormuz stoppage. We’re now in week 4.
Tourism Surge Threatened by Imminent Jet Fuel Shortage
This’ll do wonders for tourism. But we’re gonna start running out of jet fuel real soon anyway, so… https://t.co/Llcayc1dDX
Oil and Gas Impact Will Hit Everyday Life Soon
These "oil and gas are in everything" graphics are about to get very real super quick for a lot of people. https://t.co/E0aKS1NR3z
Closed Hormuz Lifts Oil $2‑3 Daily; Attacks Cause Spikes
I continue to expect crude prices to grind $2-3/bbl higher every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But if you start playing energy facility tit for tat that trend starts getting some step-change bumps real quick.
Trump Threatens Iranian Power Plants over Hormuz Closure
If Hormuz isn’t open in 48 hours Trump says he’ll start hitting Iranian power plants. https://t.co/HQZe2Sax7l
Iran Conflict: Endgame or New Beginning Unclear
Iran War basically done. Or it’s only just beginning. Definitely one of the two… … or neither. https://t.co/nwQPF9aQYG
Markets Stay Calm Amid Iran War and Hormuz Crisis
How it feels watching the Iran War, Hormuz stoppage, and the still-so-sanguine global market reaction as the world economy just rolls into calamity. https://t.co/2S9HlfVhPt
Middle East Escalations Trigger Volatile Energy Prices
> Israel will escalate. > Probably hit some energy stuff. > Iran will counterattack against other Gulf energy stuff. > Prices will spike. > Trump will say he had no idea about the energy attacks > Israel will say they won’t do it again > Prices...
Protecting Middle East Allies Threatens Global Energy Stability
(5) Protecting, at the highest level**, our Middle Eastern allies **imploding regional security, upending the global petroleum industry and shipping on which they rely, and—in best case scenario—ending the war in a politically unstable stalemate that’s sure to unravel again soon...
Oil Prices Surge Amid Fourth Week of Iran Conflict
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude rose in further fits and starts as the Iran War stretches into its 4th week and belligerents escalate to attacks on upstream infrastructure that have already wrought durable supply losses. Summary below, link...
Debating Trump's Role in Ending the Iran War
On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by my good friend @matthewmreed to discuss how the hell the Iran War could actually plausibly end I’ve been pretty open in my belief that Trump needs to...
Hormuz Blockage Highlights Critical Time‑loss Crisis
If true (BIG if), this might help avoid further escalation against upstream assets—which is good, because this can still get so, so much worse. But at its core, the Hormuz stoppage is a crisis of lost time—and we’re still no closer...
Iran War’s Energy Shock Threatens Canada’s Future
Had the opportunity to speak alongside @ExnerPirot and Bob Yawger of Mizuho about the Iran War, the largest energy supply shock in history, and what it all means for Canada on @therundowntvo. Airs tonight on TVO at 8pm ET. https://t.co/XJgEE8PqMA
US Skips Crude Export Ban, Eyes Refined Limits
*US WILL NOT IMPLEMENT CRUDE EXPORT BAN: POLITICO ... OK, so how about refined products? I've been saying up 'till now that they're going to be tempted to restrict trade, but that I thought they'd be more likely to restrict refined products...
Defenders Reframe US Oil Strategy as China‑Flexing Signal
Trump-defending reply-guys shifting from "this is fine, Trump said this will wrap quick, stop being a panican" to "idiot, the US is the world's largest oil producer—this was obviously always the plan to flex on China and Europe" Not a great sign re:...
East-West Line Underdelivers; Fujairah Adds Almost Nothing
2 main re-routing avenues available to Gulf oil producers are: 1. Saudi East-West line 2. UAE's pipe to Fujairah As of yet, we're seeing ~half of what we hope will be the 4-5 MMbpd of East-West flow. And virtually nothing extra from Fujairah. Theoretical vs...
Airlines Face $400M March Fuel Surge, Higher Fares
"Global airlines sounded the alarm ... over soaring jet fuel prices triggered by the US-Israeli war against Iran, warning of hundreds of millions of extra costs, higher fares and cuts to some routes." Delta fuel costs up by $400mn for March...
Jawboning Can Crush Oil Futures, Physical Markets Needed
Oil futures having a hard time rising much in anticipation of the scarcity barreling down toward us all when—as we saw last week—jawboning can dump prices by $10 and blow folks out We'll need physical markets to drag paper barrels to...
Oil Market Outlook Amid Iran Conflict Discussed
Had a great conversation with @KYRRadio and @pineconemacro about oil markets and Iran War. Check it out: https://t.co/n3LlJdESeO
Gulf Shipping Insurance Premiums Skyrocket to 5% of Ship Value
Gulf shipping insurance soars. Bloomberg: "The cost of coverage has leaped to about 5% of the value of a ship" At the beginning of the war, it was 0.25% (see FT piece to right) 5% is... insane. You're simply not paying that if you...
Iran Says Market Rumors Aim to Mislead Oil Traders
Iranian Foreign Minister: “Any claim to the contrary appears geared solely to mislead oil traders” 😅 There’s a whole battle of the jawbones happening on top of the acute physical market disruption.