Iran Offers Free Passage Through Hormuz If US Deals
Reuters: "Iran could consider allowing ships to sail freely through the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack as part of proposals it has offered in negotiations with the United States if a deal is clinched to prevent renewed conflict, a source briefed by Tehran said." Immediate thought is that it would be weird for Tehran to be like "well, want to control the Strait but we'd be cool with free passage across the other part rendering our control useless" But it's also not clear if this would be a bi-directional go-forward thing or simply letting the ships trapped there for 6 weeks return home. Article notes "Hundreds of tankers and other ships and 20,000 seafarers have been stuck inside the Gulf since the Iran war began on February 28." Also some small details like: 1. didn't say if it was *all* ships 2. didn't say if they would help remove any mines 3. most importantly, "the source added that the proposal hinged on whether Washington was prepared to meet Tehran's demands" Another week another round of let's see where any of this goes.
CFTC Probes Pre‑announcement Volume Spikes, Seeks Trader IDs
👀 “The CFTC is looking into at least two instances [March 23 and April 7] over a period of about two weeks where trading volumes surged shortly before major announcements, the people said. Data requested from the exchanges include the...
Iran Views Closed Strait as Leverage Amid Time‑Wasting Crisis
From Iran's perspective keeping the Strait closed for a full month while not being actively bombed is an ideal position from which to continue building steady leverage. Truly hope this ends soon, but, again, this remains a crisis of lost time—and...
US Petroleum Inventories Drop 9M Barrels, Crude Rally Stalls
US total commercial petroleum stocks fell by 9 million barrels last week. Crude was down by 0.9 MMbbl, gasoline by 6.3 MMbbl, and diesel by 3.2 MMbbl. Crude had been building faster than usual over the past month and appears to now...
Extreme Brent Backwardation Pushes Physical Prices $20 Above Dated Brent
Charting the Brent complex today to add some context to the numbers bouncing around. Pretty well everything weird in the current oil market can be explained via *extreme* backwardation (i.e., near-term delivery premia), and as you can see the intense futures...
Questioning Panic over Possible Hormuz Closure
"I don't get why people fret about the Strait of Hormuz being closed for six weeks when it might not be closed sometime in the future" https://t.co/2QU64RAu5W
Bullish on Oil as Hormuz Closure Sparks Market Tension
I'm used to oil hate because, well, I'm not a permabull and normally the dooming is deeply overwrought This episode has been weird bc I'm bullish oil given THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS BEEN CLOSED FOR SIX WEEKS and now I've...
April Sees 10 MMbpd Crude Draw in First Nine Days
Good morning, oil watchers. Vortexa tracking crude/condy stock draws of 10 MMbpd through the first 9 days of April. That's a lot.
Dated vs Prompt Brent Futures Spread Widening
Dated Brent crude vs prompt Brent futures Normally pretty tight, but not right now. Mind the gap. https://t.co/sTrTsmJpQs
Optimism OK, but Market Data Refutes “No‑need” Claim
Nothing wrong with believing that the Iran War will soon end and Hormuz will be reopened next week. Feels sanguine at this point, but possible and I hope you’re right But you’re irresponsibly wrong if you argue that market reaction thus...
34 Hormuz‑crossing Ships Possibly Gathered in One Room
are the 34 ships that crossed Hormuz today in the room with us now? https://t.co/R9lTj4xb7T
IEA Anticipates Additional SPR Releases Amid Gulf Shutdowns
IEA ready for further SPR releases on top of the record 400 million barrels already announced. Even if this crisis ends by the end of the month the market is looking at upwards of a BILLION barrels unproduced given Gulf shut-ins. Won't...
OPEC+ Crude Output Hits Record Low Since 1990
OPEC+ crude production fell to an all-time low for the expanded producer group in March. And for OG OPEC, its the lowest recorded crude production since Desert Storm in 1990. https://t.co/SUrjKb3ZLD
Hormuz Crisis Triggers Localized, Bumpy Demand Destruction
Normally I talk about the two main types of demand destruction: Price elasticity (i.e., gasoline is really expensive so I'll drive less or buy an EV) vs Income elasticity (high oil prompted a financial crisis and I lost my job) But given how...
Trump's Iran Oil Blockade Threatens Global Supply, Economy
Quoted alongside @reziemba in this @WSJ writeup on the implications of Trump’s threatened blockade of Iranian oil exports and what it means for the oil supply—and global economic—outlook. https://t.co/ndEafAkcaG
Iran Poised to Hit Upstream Oil if Tanker Seized
All eyes on the first Iranian tanker to test Trump’s blockade. Iran has thus far left most upstream oil production assets and export infrastructure untouched, but that’s Tehran’s next obvious escalatory ramp should the US Navy attack/seize an Iranian tanker.
US Vows Impartial Hormuz Blockade, Protects Non‑Iranian Navigation
More restrained than Trump’s blanket Hormuz blockade announced this morning. CENTCOM: “The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of...
Hormuz Offset Claims Exaggerated, Real Capacity Far Lower
Bunch of people have asked so to answer directly: these Hormuz offset numbers are entirely bunk. Absolutely fair to be optimistic about the war ending and Hormuz reopening, but it’s fundamentally flawed to say we’re offset the Hormuz supply loss and...
All Tanker Types Mapped: Dirty, Clean, Gas Carriers
Since folks seem to love tanker maps, here's ALL the tankers, courtesy of @Vortexa. Blue are dirty tankers (crude, fuel oil, etc.), white are clean product tankers (gasoline, diesel, etc.) and orange are gas carriers (LNG, LPG, etc.) https://t.co/FNC46mr4l2
Trump Vows to Double Blockade if Houthis Block Strait
Don’t worry, folks—if the Houthis block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, Trump will just double blockade it.
Hormuz Closure Could Cut Gulf Output by 15 MMbpd
Current Middle East Gulf production shut-ins stand at ~13 MMbpd (out of a ~105 MMbpd market) If Trump blockades the Strait and forces Iran to shut in production that total rises to ~15 MMbpd. It’s been strange to see Iran continue to...
Quick Summary of Today’s Strait of Hormuz Events
This morning’s Strait of Hormuz developments, summarized so you don’t need to read the president’s rambling morning long-posts: https://t.co/KWcJKMp2QV
Iran's New Hormuz Demand Echoes Pre‑war Dispute
Same core disagreement from before the war started. (Oh, also, Iran now demands control of Hormuz, which it obviously didn’t before) https://t.co/P2i5MVuzpB
Three VLCCs Mark Iran War’s Biggest Outbound Flow
By volume today's 3 VLCCs represented the largest outbound tanker flow thus far in the Iran War. Rather than vessel count, the Bloomberg chart below shows deadweight tonnage. https://t.co/OG2Rjb6Vtp
Reduced Odds Trump Would Enforce Oil Export Ban
Let’s look on the bright side—all else equal, this probably reduced the odds Trump imposed an oil export ban.
Oil Prices Drop After Iran Ceasefire, Hormuz Still Closed
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices collapsed following the announcement of an Iran War ceasefire, during which attacks have continued, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed; all eyes on weekend negotiations Summary below, full report...
Empty VLCCs Rush to US, Relieving Hormuz‑Starved Markets
Very cool seeing the wave of empty tankers heading to the US to pick up some desperately needed crude for Hormuz-starved markets. All the tankers on the map below are empty VLCCs (~2 million barrel capacity each) currently heading for the...
PEMEX Confirms Olmeca Refinery Safe After Petcoke Fire
*PEMEX SAYS OLMECA REFINERY IS SAFE, OPERATIONAL AFTER FIRE It was reported to have been a fire in petcoke storage. The number of people I saw being like "CoInCiDenCe?!" smh
Futures Can Diverge From Spot Prices Long-Term
While phys/spot crude $ HAS to reflect immediate supply/demand pressures, and the spread to future cargoes needs to reflect scarcity (backwardation) or surplus (contango), futures $ never NEED to converge—and can remain steeply below—to those same levels in the short/medium-term
Gulf Shut‑ins Suggest Negative Prices, Futures Mislead
Here's something to think about and chew on: The mass production shut-ins across the Gulf (~13 MMbpd) imply effectively negative crude prices West of Hormuz—otherwise they could and would still be selling to someone. But futures markets are "implying" (as far as...
Trump's Flip‑flopping on Iran's Hormuz Toll Deal
One of my favourite things about Iran’s Hormuz tolls aspirations is that Trump can’t decide where he stands on the issue. Some days he couldn’t care less, other days like today he claims it’s a dealbreaker, yesterday he was musing about...
Record Prompt Backwardation Drives Extreme Spot Premiums
The vast majority of the “dislocation between physical and paper barrels” is very simply extreme backwardation, meaning the steep premiums for spot deliverable barrels (as BBG referred to them today, ASAP barrels) relative to later-dated cargoes. Crude futures curves have...
Live Talk: Iran War Ceasefire's Impact on Oil
Sitting down with @notthreadguy for a live conversation about the Iran War, the "ceasefire", and what it all means for oil. Starting now, tune in!
Kuwait Air Defenses Counter Ongoing Drone Attacks
I WAS ASSURED THAT THE FIRING HAD CEASED [Kuwaiti] air defenses in the Armed Forces are currently dealing with hostile attacks from drones that penetrated the country's airspace, targeting a number of vital facilities.
Iran's 15‑ship Limit Won't Mean 15 VLCCs
I'm not sure who needs to hear this but Iran's 15-ship daily limit isn't going to be 15 VLCCs each laden with 2 million barrels of oil.
Brent Rebounds Above $97, Still Far From $110 Peak
Brent crude back above $97, still well below the $110 we were at pre-“ceasefire” announcement, but ~$7 off this morning’s low. https://t.co/I0q5dXg0RD
Ceasefire Uncertain, Hormuz Still Blocked, Oil Market Stressed
Spoke with @PnPCBC earlier today about the Iran War "ceasefire", how the rough first day still had plenty of fire on both sides, how flow through Hormuz has yet to actually resume, and what it all means for the supply-starved...
Ceasefire Fails as Hormuz Shipping Hits Weekly Low
A ceasefire, in which attacks continue on both sides To reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is now more closed than yesterday with the fewest daily ship crossings in more than a week https://t.co/9NH0BmZ5Qv
Drone Strikes Saudi East-West Oil Pipeline Pumping Station
“Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline carrying crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export has been attacked, the Financial Times reports, citing two unidentified people familiar with the matter.” - pumping station was hit at 1 p.m. local time -...
Read Iran's 10‑point List Before Trusting Trump's Optimism
Do yourself a favour and actually read Iran's 10-point conditions list that Trump optimistically referred to as a "basis for negotiations"
Hormuz Rerouting Offsets Shortfall, yet 13 MMbpd Remains
Flow through the Strait of Hormuz doesn't need to re-reach pre-war levels to normalize global balances thanks to rerouting (and constant Iran flow) But we still have ~13 MMbpd of production shut-in That's how much more we'll need to push through Hormuz...
Tomorrow’s Hormuz Tanker Count Cuts Through Market Noise
Let’s see how many tankers cross the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow. Literally everything else is noise.
Hormuz Ceasefire Permits Mere 10‑15 Ships Daily
From account close to Tehran—not saying it’s correct, but it’s the first real colour we’re getting on what any interim Hormuz reopening during the ceasefire could look like: “During the two-week ceasefire, only about 10 to 15 ships will be permitted...
Strait Reopening Will Eliminate Dark Ship
Heads up that if that Strait *actually* reopens, ships will be crossing with their AIS transponders on so we can cut it with all the contested dark (ie AIS off) transit estimates.
Today's Brent Mirrors 2014 Levels After Inflation Adjustments
Dated Brent was at ~$105 in April 2014, before the BIG shale-induced rout in crude prices. Adjusting for inflation, that's roughly where we are today. And the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. (Also the lapsed appropriations note at the bottom of the BLS'...
Exports Lag Production; Inventory Loads Faster than Restart
Keep in mind that exports ≠ production. Production was shut in because after they stopped loading new tankers inventory capacity was rapidly exhausted—they'll be able to load tankers from that same inventory much sooner than they'll be ablet to get field...
Iran's Draft Rejects Ceasefire, Demands Permanent War End
“Response has 10 clauses, rejects a ceasefire while demanding a permanent end to the war in line with Iran’s considerations… … also includes a protocol for safe passage through the Strait, reconstruction & lifting sanctions” So it’s either fire and brimstone or...
Early Signs Suggest Iraq Flow Could Become Significant
There’s something to this Iraq stuff, even if it’s still too early to say how consequential this flow will grow to be https://t.co/S1itXIUl4L
Double‑digit Prompt Spreads Demand Explicit Delivery Month Quotes
When you need to explicitly include delivery months in all crude futures price quotes because we have double digit prompt timespreads https://t.co/cvrXe7FuP3
War Claims Near End, yet Satellite Images Suppressed
> say war is almost over for weeks > repeatedly jawbone oil market lower > say war definitely nearly done > pressure satellite imagery providers to *indefinitely* withhold imagery from war zone that could help market (and public) make their own judgements