Jet Fuel Prices Skyrocket Amid Limited Supply
Jet fuel prices are *soaring* if you can get your hands on any, that is.
Gas Prices Shocked Me After Years of Driving
First time filling the family whip since the start of the Iran War that I made this face when I saw the price https://t.co/1riTWbn89v
Join My First Twitter Space Tonight at 9 Pm
Heads up that I’m chatting with @MacroEdgeRes and @DonMiami3 tonight at 9pm—my first Twitter space in a long while, join us! https://t.co/Z6jMw46ttX
Crude Spot Markets Reach Unprecedented Tightness, Spreads Near Whole Dollars
It's not a great sign when you start simply rounding crude timespreads to the nearest full dollar per barrel Brent prompt spread at $10/bbl, WTI at $14, Dubai at $17 (we normally talk about term structure in cents...) Crude oil spot markets have...
Futures Signal Oil Prices Will Normalize by Summer
HASSETT: "You don't have to believe me, just look at the futures markets, which trade future contracts on these things--and they're way back headed towards normal by the fall and certainly into the summer" https://t.co/MJNzrqID5k
Iran Conflict Could Waste Over One Billion Barrels
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 The Billion Barrel Cost of a Longer Iran War The total volume of unproduced Gulf barrels is set to rise above one billion barrels over full shock duration; lost production in April alone will absorb nearly the entire...
Renting Cushing WTI Barrel Yields 25% Monthly Return
Prompt WTI timespreads today hit a record high of $15/bbl If you've currently got a barrel of physical WTI-deliverable crude in the Cushing area, you can *rent* said barrel to the market for the next two and a half weeks and...
Iran War and Hormuz Blockade: A Marathon, Not Sprint
"Pace yourself. The Iran War and Hormuz closure is a marathon, not a sprint." https://t.co/BU5JGk7A7w
WTI Crude Hits Highest Level Since Early War Melt‑Up
WTI crude just absolutely sending it. The US crude benchmark is now at its highest level since that melt-up we got on the second Monday of the war. https://t.co/4hONtQf997
April Shut‑ins Match Historic 400 MMbbl IEA Release
If we assume that Hormuz remains closed for the next month, which now seems like a pretty solid bet, the barrels not produced by Gulf states thanks to production shut-ins in **April alone** will be roughly equivalent to the entire...
Markets Await Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
“Markets are forward looking, and they’re just looking forward to a future when the Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed.” Aren’t we all. https://t.co/U9K3hLC2zT
Will Hormuz Reach 80% Shipping Flow by April?
Is the Strait of Hormuz open* before the end of April? *let's define it as 80+% of pre-war shipping flow
US May Waive Iran Sanctions to Enable Hormuz Toll Payments
Iran is still heavily sanctioned by the US, which complicates the payment of any tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, both today or in a future where Tehran maintains some control of the Strait Wouldn't be surprised to see...
Caught Between Alarmist Labels and Gulf Military Optimism
Starting to slip into a more familiar and comfortable position in which half my replies accuse me of being an alarmist permabull and the other half think I'm woefully sanguine about the US military assets heading for the Gulf. https://t.co/4lySW5Xl92
Iran Conflict Scenarios Push Oil Prices Above Pre‑War Levels
My rough Iran War scenario probabilities over the next month are: 🌮 40% unilateral TACO, Iran maintains some hybrid control of Strait 🪖 30% boots on the ground, strait stays blocked, spiked risk of more upstream attacks, global economy withers 🤷🏻♂️...
Iran’s New Leader, Same Regime, Strait Reopens
Probably not important bc who sweats the details in war or diplomacy... but Iran's current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, assumed office in July 2024. New Supreme Leader, same president (and regime) as before. Also this morning we appear focused on the Strait reopening...
Trump Ended Carter Doctrine, Shaping Iran War Politics
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with @gbrew24 about Trump killing the Carter Doctrine and how to think about the political contours of the Iran War on *all* sides of the conflict and...
Brent Price Plunge Driven by May‑June Contract Roll
The big drop you see in Brent crude prices overnight is primarily the prompt (ie front-month) contract roll from May to June May Brent crude contract expired at >$118 June currently [somehow??] trading at $101 So relieved to hear this will be entirely...
Hormuz Closure Could Push Oil to $300 Barrel
If Hormuz remains close the price of oil and refined products could rise to $200, $250, $300 per barrel or any number.
Brent Crude Gains Nearly $50 Amid Iran Conflict
Brent crude prompt futures price, Iran-War-to-date. Up just shy of $50 per barrel over the past month. https://t.co/SERzQ38Bos
OPEC's Monthly Production Decline Hits Ugly Levels
Now we start getting the monthly average OPEC production numbers. And boy, oh boy, are they UGLY. Reminder: this is the *average* production decline m/m, the exit loss is even larger and that's where we'll land in the April data if this...
Iran War Triggers Structural Oil Price Upgrade
I don't see any reasonable scenario in which the oil market exits the Iran War in a healthier, more secure condition than where things stood before the war. It's a structural go-forward upgrade to oil pricing, at this stage it's just...
Oil May Rise Even If War Ends, TACO Unbearish
While a unilateral TACO is “bearish” relative to a boots on the ground regional blow-up scenario, it’s not bearish in absolute terms—and very likely still justifies crude prices higher than their current sanguine levels. So, yes, I think the war can...
Special Forces Grounding Diplomacy, Threatening Hormuz Oil Flow
While it’s possible that Iran’s enriched uranium could be secured by a diplomatic deal, most recent discussions have involved special forces’ boots on the ground And boots on the ground is going to seriously complicate efforts to reopen to Strait of...
Hormuz Closure Wipes Out Qatar’s Oil and Product Exports
We've lost a LOT of Gulf crude oil production capacity to shut-ins following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz But we've also lost refined products, condensates, and natural gas liquids Here's Qatar, which normally exports ~1.5 MMbpd of which only 1/3...
US Diesel Prices Soar Above $190 on Tight Margins
Brent Crude: $114/bbl US diesel crack spread (refining margin): $77/bbl US diesel wholesale market price > $190 per barrel
Outbound Traffic Outpaces Inbound; Strait Needs Two‑way Flow
We're managing to squeeze a few additional ships back out of the Strait of Hormuz, but as the Bloomberg chart below highlights far more are leaving (outbound) than returning (inbound). On one level that's obvious (who wants to go *into* the...
Hormuz Closure’s Oil “Air Pocket” Hits Regions Sequentially
I’ve been describing the supply loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an “air pocket” moving through the normal flow of oil out of the Gulf Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in...
Will Trump Trigger Another Crude Price Surge?
So, do we get another big Trump crude price jawbone tomorrow morning? And, if so, does it work again?
Small Brent Move Wipes Out $100 Profit
Just mentioned to my business partner (wife) that Brent opened at $16.25 Realized I’m now dropping the leading $100
Poorest Nations Hit Hard by Iran‑War Energy Crisis
The world's poorest will bear the brunt of the energy crisis caused by the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude Prices and S&P 500 Diverge, Highlighting Current Macro Snapshot
the juxtaposition of crude prices (white, Brent) and the S&P 500 (blue) last week is a great snapshot of the current macro moment https://t.co/SUUMhbRJuY
Hormuz Shutdown Creates Unprecedented Oil Supply Shock
Lotta people love to play with Hormuz offset balance math—and boy, oh boy, the numbers I've seen bouncing around... But let's keep it dead simple and focus on pure output: There's now ~10 MMbpd of crude oil production shut-ins confirmed across the...
Houthis May Keep Bab‑el‑Mandeb Strait Open
In fairness this means the Houthis are also considering not closing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, guys. https://t.co/ZiiVU0cw8C
Future View:
guy in the future: “So, how serious is this, on a scale of just noise to that time the Strait of Hormuz got closed?”
Crude Prices Edge Higher Amid Hormuz Stalemate
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices rose modestly on the week after recovering from a Trump jawbone-driven rout on Monday given no real resolution to the Hormuz stoppage, and term structure keeps getting tighter. Summary below, link to...
Houthis Poised to Act if Iran War Escalates
Deleted the Walter QT re: Houthis because I couldn't find any other supporting reports. All I could find was this report (from yesterday) that noted the Houthis were read to respond militarily "should developments in the war on Iran require such...
Strait Reopening Prevents Catastrophic Fallout
"but the catastrophic consequences of the Strait remaining closed won't happen if the Strait reopens" https://t.co/iULTzt6N2d
Skepticism Over Trump's Quick Iranian Regime Change Promise
Silly in many ways, but specifically: given that we're already 4 weeks into the Iran War, it seems as if Slok here is implying that the Trump admin will achieve durable and favourable Iranian regime change between the weekend and...
Israeli Strikes Hit Iranian Steel, Tehran Retaliates Tit‑for‑Tat
This follows Israeli strikes that reportedly targeted steel industry facilities in Isfahan, Iran Tehran remaining very tit-for-tat in its responses A gas project for a gas project, steel plants for a steel plant—good reminder of why no one has yet taken out,...
Oil and Inventories Can’t Hit Zero without Industry Collapse
oil on water cannot be drawn to zero commercial inventories cannot be drawn to zero if either is at zero the oil industry quite simply no longer exists https://t.co/pLWqhb6KZB
Oil Market's Health Shown by Zero‑stock Longevity Queries
You know the oil market is in a healthy position when I keep getting questions along the lines of "but what if we just drew every global stock/inventory to zero, how long would that buy us?"
Brent Surpasses $110 as Hormuz Closure Cuts 15M Barrels Daily
Gm, oil watchers Brent crude back above $110 this morning because—and stop me if you’ve heard this one—the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and the world oil market is losing 15 million barrels every day that remains true https://t.co/jg4V9IlWhv
Oil Market Shows Growing Numbness to Political Hype
AND THE JAWBONE Crude "only" fell ~$4.50/bbl on the latest Trump post, which is less than 1/3 of the pullback he got on Monday, and the rout was reversed much more quickly. Oil market getting more numb to the nonsense. https://t.co/rgoe9w20zI
Brent Spot Tightness Near All‑Time High Amid Supply Fight
BRENT SPOT SO TIGHT Dated-to-Frontline (DFL) Brent crude oil timespread is currently sitting just shy of last week's all-time high, and if we closed here we'd finish at a fresh daily ATH. Signals extreme tightness in North Sea spot crude markets amidst...
NYT War Update Shows Iran Conflict Far From Over
NYT Iran War status check Certainly doesn’t 𝙛𝙚𝙚𝙡 like this is on the verge of wrapping https://t.co/VNfArjsLyq
DFL Spreads Near Spot, Strongest Indicator Despite Lower Spikes
Brent crude: - Flat price (white) - Prompt futures timespread (blue) - Dated-to-Frontline (DFL) spread (orange) All off their highs, but DFLs are both closest to the "real" spot market and they're trading nearest the high of the lot. In relative terms DFLs didn't get...
Resuming Hormuz Traffic Crucial Amid Iran War Uncertainty
My BNN Bloomberg conversation from earlier today for those who missed it. Talked about the state and trajectory of the Iran War, the growing physical-sentiment disconnect in oil markets, and how nothing really matters unless traffic through the Strait of Hormuz...
Paper
Coming to terms with the fact that no matter how the Iran War and Hormuz crisis ends it’s going to be far harder going forward to scoff at claims that the paper market isn’t pricing in physical oil market realities. Catastrophic...
Russia's Oil Exports Plunge 40% After Drone Attacks
Cool, cool, cool... "At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers ... the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern...