
Industrial production nudged up 0.2% in February, marking a modest 1.4% year‑over‑year gain, a small but positive signal for the NBER recession gauges. Homebuilder confidence ticked higher in March yet remains historically low, with 37% of builders cutting prices. Gasoline surged to $3.85 a gallon and diesel topped $5, pushing daily consumer fuel costs up by $375 million. The White House responded by temporarily waiving summer gasoline formulations and the Jones Act for 60 days, while pending home sales showed a slight month‑over‑month rise but remain down year‑over‑year.

The latest BLS jobs report showed U.S. employment contracting by 92,000 jobs in February, with a further 69,000‑job downgrade for December and January, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Over the past 12 months, employers added just 156,000 jobs—far below...