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EMAIL DIGESTS
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't always right) https://t.co/uLoEmkVecK
I'm a big advocate for stabilization policies generally, but.... The more you try to play games to stave off fundamental price adjustments altogether, the nastier they can get as time goes by. Could end up adding more volatility than what you've...
Waller’s not wrong about passthrough effects. They vary over time and are likely to be stronger the longer this shock goes on That said, the wise course is to look through them. It just turns out to be really hard in...
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
It is (too) low. Guessing some of the Fed officials were not willing to fold in Feb CPI data into their projections. And certainly not today's PPI data
Core PCE inflation has been marching upwards (>1% above target). Yet Fed officials are only inching up their forecasts (they're still offsides) No downside changes to u3 or output gap. Yet the Fed is still penciling in a cut for this year....
There's a growing bipartisan consensus in NJ for improving the permitting and regulatory environment for additional nuclear power generation. Great to see. There's room on the main Salem / Hope Creek site for additional large light-water reactors https://t.co/rlPo7Lq5dr https://t.co/bVJbEhfghL
Employ America Statement on the Coordinated IEA Release. https://t.co/goQS5uJUUS No stockpile release can compare to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but with the right preparation, there are still ways to make it helpful at the margin. https://t.co/K549sAsIrM
Before adding in geopolitical inflation risk, goods inflation outside food and energy is already running about 3% faster than what prevailed for most of the last 3 decades Much of this is tariffs, but bottlenecks from the AI boom are also...
I guess it's good Europeans are embracing nuclear power again but if SMRs are what they're hanging their hat on, they're going to continue to lag behind. They'd be better off paying attention to what's going on in Japan right...
Thank you to @IFP for publishing my piece investigating what role the CHIPS Act played in the manufacturing investment boom of the past few years. It wasn't all CHIPS-driven, but geographic & industrial cross-sections suggest a very substantial linkage: https://t.co/vseboy0GnV
A lot of hyperbolic takes on the jobs report. It was a soft (bad) report. On both surveys. Both were better in Jan There are reasons for data volatility that need more smoothing now. Labor income growth stable around 4.5% Prime...
Memory shortage reported back to back months in the ISM Manufacturing Survey. I suspect this will be with us for a while.... https://t.co/RUpjKtiOJ6
The ai advances are real, but they imply some very unpleasant bottlenecks for a bunch of industries, and risk stoking prices in a variety of goods. Tariffs arent the only source of short run inflation risk
This is probably where the focus of a lot of efforts needs to go, as much as it might seem small-bore / Clintonian Appetite for tax increases very low. Appetite for spending changes (up or down) also not high. Improving govt...
