The Energy Transition Show with Chris Nelder

[Episode #271] – China Update 2026

In this episode, host Chris Nelder talks with CREA analyst Lauri Milivirta about China’s paradoxical energy trajectory: record additions of coal‑fire capacity alongside rapid growth in wind, solar, storage, and EVs, resulting in flat or falling CO₂ emissions. Milivirta explains that new coal plants are built mainly for capacity reserves, not generation, due to low capital costs, capacity‑payment subsidies, and an inflexible grid, even though utilization rates hover around 50% and are projected to drop further. He highlights that clean energy now meets all demand growth, making many of the planned coal projects economically and environmentally inefficient, and raises concerns about future stranded‑asset risks under China’s climate targets. The discussion underscores the tension between short‑term capacity security and long‑term decarbonization goals.