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Tim Duy

Tim Duy

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Economist; Fed watcher; policy trajectory and rate‑sensitive sectors

Data Shows Firms Are Passing Through Price Increases, Defying Fed
Social•Mar 18, 2026

Data Shows Firms Are Passing Through Price Increases, Defying Fed

Fed: "K-shaped economy, firms can't pass through price increases." Data: "Firms pass through price increases."

By Tim Duy
Trade Services Inflation Accelerating, Now Double Pre‑pandemic Pace
Social•Mar 18, 2026

Trade Services Inflation Accelerating, Now Double Pre‑pandemic Pace

IDK if this is really much of a silver lining. On trend means that trade services are passing on costs at twice the pre-pandemic pace. That speaks to embedded inflation above target. https://t.co/IwClLNNndO

By Tim Duy
Trump's Influence Undermines Fed Credibility Amid Rate‑Cut Skepticism
Social•Mar 18, 2026

Trump's Influence Undermines Fed Credibility Amid Rate‑Cut Skepticism

When you see markets pricing in no chance of a cut in April, and less than a cut this entire year, and we are still talking about the possibility of three dissents against holding rates constant today, you realize how...

By Tim Duy
Fed Overstates Shelter Inflation's Impact on Target
Social•Mar 11, 2026

Fed Overstates Shelter Inflation's Impact on Target

The odd part is that Fed officials have made a big deal about the importance of falling shelter inflation apparently without remembering it has a smaller impact in their actual inflation target.

By Tim Duy