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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
The public market is just one giant volatility trade now-based off of quant factors. This is what happens when you hollow out active management. You could make the argument it’s way more efficient now, but I think we’ll find out that when you have homogeneous counterparties that all have the same incentives, that creates systemic risk. If you want a healthy market you need millions of counterparties interacting for different reasons. When you centralize asset management, you create giant sausage making factories of financial slop that scale well but there are always side effects. Be careful not to be caught with the herd here….
On one hand, Trump laid out the 21st Century Manhattan project with the Genesis Plan, promising to lead the world in AI- an objectively good thing for America. @DavidSacks On the other hand, he goes into Iran cutting off oil...
This is actually looking like a great framework after oil hit $110 tonight… Aged pretty well for now. Can change in about ten minutes tho 😂
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
This is an incredibly thought-provoking global macro piece from @infraa_. If the gov't revenue decline from AI disruption of white collar workers isn't counter-balanced by taxation from AI productivity, we could be tip-toeing into a potential Sovereign Bond Implosion....
This is what happens when export $ recycling slows in a world that is deglobalizing. I.E. When the movement from Capital to Labor shifts, the flow of equity flow moves from digital to real things, from software to hardware, trade...
Yep- Skew on TLT (calls expensive to outs) like 1 month out is in the 90th%tile. Gonna get shaken out before yields go lower. Let’s talk about this tomorrow on @ForwardGuidance
Why is the mkt so centralized? Well, only megacorps survive the red tape & regulatory fees. “Regulation favors the incumbent” Most scaled companies extract value instead of innovate. They use short-vol strategies that extract from the middle class instead of grow...
Whose ready for the short-squeeze in software over the next week because the 26 year-old analysts at the multi-platform funds convinced their PM's to go max short? Then we'll get the Consumer Staples pullback at the same time, when all the...
The least productive part of our economy keeps getting wealthier...If you have a larger balance sheet you've relatively benefitted because of continuous gov't support, while labor has been shoved in a locker. Whatever happened to the party of labor?? hmm🧐🧐 "About 30%...
Employment in S&P 500 companies is 18% of total US employment, but 35 cents of every dollar that goes into the SPX goes to 7 companies. This is a market structure problem and a major issue with our 401k system.
