Gulf States Under Fire, With Mina Al-Oraibi | The President’s Inbox

Why It Matters

The conflict jeopardizes the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and threatens the Gulf’s role as a global trade hub, forcing businesses and governments to reassess risk and strategic exposure.

Key Takeaways

• UAE intercepted majority of Iranian missiles, showing robust defenses.
• Attacks target civilian infrastructure, disrupting trade and tourism hubs.
• Gulf states maintain defensive posture, pursuing diplomatic reparations.
• Iran's Revolutionary Guard now drives war strategy, limiting diplomatic channels.
• Potential US ground troops could escalate conflict and threaten global oil flow.

Summary

The President’s Inbox interview with Mina Al‑Oraibi, editor‑in‑chief of The National, focuses on the fifth week of Iran’s missile and drone barrage against the Gulf, detailing how the United Arab Emirates and neighboring states are coping with unprecedented attacks.

Al‑Oraibi notes that more than half of the missiles and drones aimed at the UAE have been intercepted, underscoring the effectiveness of the region’s air‑defense systems. The strikes have largely bypassed military sites, instead hitting civilian targets such as Emirates Global Aluminium, Dubai Airport, desalination plants, and even the Fairmont Hotel on the Palm, a clear strategy to sow terror and disrupt commerce.

She emphasizes the Gulf’s strictly defensive military response while pursuing an aggressive diplomatic campaign, securing a UN Security Council resolution condemning Iran and laying groundwork for future reparations. The interview also reveals that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps now dominates war‑making decisions, marginalizing civilian leadership and complicating any diplomatic resolution.

The fallout threatens global trade: the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, prompting U.S. discussions of ground forces that could further destabilize oil flows. Long‑term economic damage, potential war‑reparations, and a reshaped security architecture in the Gulf make the conflict a pivotal moment for regional and worldwide markets.

Original Description

This episode unpacks how the war with Iran will affect the future of the Gulf countries’ security and economic prosperity.

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:

Mina Al-Oraibi, Editor-in-Chief, The National

We Discuss:

1. Whether Gulf states supported or opposed the war with Iran and their role in the intensive diplomatic efforts to avoid conflict before it began.

2. How Iran’s retaliation expanded the war into the Gulf, targeting civilian infrastructure, energy hubs, and global transit points.

3. The scale of drone and missile attacks across the region, and what they reveal about modern asymmetric warfare.

4. Who is actually in charge in Iran, and how the IRGC is shaping decision-making and escalation.

5. Why regime change in Iran remains unlikely, despite internal unrest and external pressure.

6. Why Gulf leaders don’t want a simple ceasefire, but rather a long-term security reset that addresses Iran’s missile and drone programs.

7. How the war is stress-testing Gulf economies and their long-term bets on stability, globalization, and diversification.

00:00 - Introduction to The President’s Inbox

01:13 - Current Mood and Resilience in Abu Dhabi

02:34 - Diplomatic Efforts to Avoid War

04:00 - Iranian Targeting of Gulf States

06:00 - Impact on Civilian Infrastructure

08:04 - Gulf States' Defensive Response

10:43 - Power Dynamics and Leadership in Iran

12:43 - Internal Protests and Regime Stability

14:26 - U.S. Ground Troops and Strait of Hormuz

18:32 - Threats to Desalination Infrastructure

20:25 - Regional Mediation and Pakistan's Role

21:55 - Future Security and Political Solutions

25:05 - China and Russia’s Geopolitical Roles

29:20 - Long-term Prosperity and Gulf Security

Find us

Gulf States Under Fire, With Mina Al-Oraibi - https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/gulf-states-under-fire

The President’s Inbox - https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox

Apple Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-presidents-inbox/id1172546141

Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/65u6jcFyV5BnlVhhzSi7UJ

Related Content

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/245317.pdf

Security Council Adopts Gulf-Backed Resolution Condemning Iran Attacks; Russia Bid Fails - https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167119

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

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