Q1 2026 vs 2025: What Changed in Ecommerce (The Data)

6% year over year, with the bulk of growth coming from returning customers rather than new acquisition. 3%, yet the platform’s return on ad spend (ROAS) slipped only 3%, indicating a more elastic marketplace. 65% increase in spend produced a 12% lift in ROAS, defying typical expectations that higher budgets erode efficiency. These trends suggest that both major ad networks have refined targeting algorithms, allowing brands to scale budgets without proportional performance loss.

Parallel to ad performance, the Direct‑to‑Consumer Confidence Index (DTCCI) reveals shifting shopper psychology. After a dip in early 2025, future purchase sentiment rebounded in March 2026 as geopolitical tensions eased and oil prices stabilized, prompting optimism about personal spending power. The index’s five‑question survey—covering economic outlook, intended purchases, and spender versus saver attitudes—provides a real‑time elasticity gauge for acquisition strategies. Brands that monitor these sentiment shifts can align budget allocations with consumer willingness to spend, reducing the risk of over‑investing during periods of fiscal caution.

The Common Thread Collective’s DTC Index underpins these insights, drawing from a curated cohort of roughly 300 consistently reporting D2C brands across verticals such as fashion, beauty, and health. By filtering for stable revenue and ad spend histories on Meta and Google, the dataset offers a granular view of performance benchmarks and elasticity metrics that larger, noisy datasets lack. Marketers can leverage the weekly updates and monthly newsletters to benchmark their own campaigns, identify incremental lift opportunities, and adjust creative tactics. co for actionable, data‑driven decisions.