Ridley: The Gas Price Shock Will Expose Britain’s Catastrophic Energy Misjudgment

Key Takeaways

• UK imports 60% of gas, paying triple US prices
• 100 shale pads could yield 40 bcm/year by 2030s
• Shale could make UK gas self‑sufficient, add £8bn exports
• Potential CO2 cut: 80 Mt by 2035
• Community benefits £600m, business rates £1.2bn by 2035

Summary

The recent surge in global natural‑gas prices has laid bare Britain’s over‑reliance on imports, costing households roughly three times what Americans pay. The author argues that a decade‑old decision to ban on‑shore shale fracking has left the UK vulnerable, missing an opportunity to produce up to 40 billion cubic metres of gas annually. Had shale development proceeded, the country could approach self‑sufficiency, generate export revenues and cut carbon emissions. The piece frames the gas‑price shock as a direct consequence of that policy misstep.

Pulse Analysis

The current gas‑price shock is not merely a market anomaly; it reflects a structural weakness in Britain’s energy mix. Over 60 % of the nation’s gas is sourced abroad, and the lack of a transparent world price index forces utilities to pay premiums that dwarf U.S. costs. This import dependence amplifies inflationary pressures on households and industry, while also exposing the UK to geopolitical supply risks, especially given the choke‑point of the Strait of Hormuz for LNG shipments.

A decade‑long prohibition on on‑shore shale fracking has frozen a potentially transformative asset. Industry estimates suggest that 100 shale pads in northern England could produce roughly 40 billion cubic metres of gas per year by the mid‑2030s—enough to cover two‑thirds of national demand. Coupled with existing North Sea output, the UK could achieve near self‑sufficiency, improve the balance of payments by an estimated £8 billion annually, and avoid up to 80 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions. The fiscal upside includes £600 million in community benefits and £1.2 billion in business rates, providing a tangible boost to local economies.

Policymakers now face a trade‑off between environmental concerns and energy security. While seismic activity from fracking remains a public worry, the article points out that comparable or greater tremors are already occurring at geothermal sites with far less controversy. As the Climate Change Committee acknowledges the need for gas in the transition decade, a calibrated shale strategy could deliver lower‑carbon domestic supply, stabilize energy prices, and safeguard industrial competitiveness, especially in chemicals and AI‑driven sectors. Re‑evaluating the fracking ban could therefore align economic, climate and security objectives.