China Solar Cell Prices Fall for Third Consecutive Week as Upstream Costs Ease

Why It Matters

The price softening signals tightening margins for Chinese cell makers and could reshape global supply dynamics ahead of the export‑tax rebate phase‑out, affecting downstream module pricing and project economics.

Key Takeaways

• TOPCon M10 cell price fell 0.36% to $0.0558/W.
• N-type M10 wafer price dropped 3.92% to $0.147 each.
• Cell production down 7.8% YoY; capacity utilization ~40%.
• Silver paste prices fell over 20% from January peak.
• Exports rose to 14 GW, up from 12.8 GW last year.

Pulse Analysis

The latest OPIS report highlights a rare three‑week streak of declining cell prices in China, driven primarily by lower polysilicon and wafer costs. While the TOPCon M10 cell now trades at $0.0558 per watt, the broader wafer market has seen a sharper 3.9% slide, underscoring the ripple effect of upstream commodity easing. This price trajectory coincides with the imminent cancellation of China's export‑tax rebate on solar products, prompting buyers to reassess procurement strategies before the fiscal shift takes effect.

Production data reveal a 7.8% year‑on‑year drop in cell output for the first two months, with manufacturers operating at roughly 40% of installed capacity. The deliberate curtailment of output aims to balance inventories and protect margins, especially after a steep 20% decline in silver paste prices that had previously squeezed profitability. By reducing run rates, firms hope to stabilize the market, yet the lingering weak demand for installations keeps pressure on wafer consumption, leaving supply relatively abundant.

Despite the softness in cell pricing, module manufacturers report more resilient module prices, thanks to higher costs for glass, EVA and POE driven by natural‑gas and oil price spikes. Export volumes, however, have risen to about 14 GW, indicating that international demand remains a bright spot for Chinese producers. Analysts anticipate that once the front‑loaded buying surge around the tax rebate deadline fades, both cell and module prices may continue to track each other downward, compelling developers to factor tighter cost structures into their 2026 project budgets.