How the UK’s Options for Rebuilding Ties With Europe Stack Up
Bloomberg Economics estimates that Brexit has shaved 2‑4% off UK GDP, a loss roughly half of which could be recouped by tighter trade ties with the EU. The analysis puts the annual fiscal hit at about $40 billion, lower than the Bank of England’s 3.5% and the OBR’s 4% estimates. New polling shows a majority of Britons now favor re‑joining the bloc, prompting Labour leaders to explore closer relationships. Bloomberg models three scenarios, with a customs‑union reunion delivering the modest 0.4‑percentage‑point boost.
China’s Oil Imports Plunge to Eight-Year Low on War Disruptions
China’s crude oil imports fell to roughly 33 million tons in May, equivalent to 7.8 million barrels per day, marking the lowest level since October 2017. The drop reflects the impact of the Iran war, which disrupted supply routes, and Beijing’s decision to...
India Bonds to Extend Gains as Easing Oil Boosts Sentiment
Indian government bonds are set to extend recent gains as oil prices slipped to around $94 a barrel, easing pressure on yields. The benchmark 2035 note is expected to trade between 6.92% and 6.98%, down from Monday's 6.95% close. The...
InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX News Wrap: OpenAI Has Confidentially Filed for a US IPO
OpenAI has confidentially filed a U.S. IPO prospectus, signaling a possible September market debut and targeting a valuation of up to $1 trillion. The filing puts the ChatGPT maker in the same league as Anthropic and SpaceX, which are also eyeing...
G30 Treasurer Urges Global South to Unite Against Economic Fracas
Guillermo Ortiz, treasurer of the G30 and former Bank of Mexico governor, urged the Global South to unite in response to tightening liquidity and protectionist policies highlighted at the inaugural Tito Mboweni lecture in Cape Town. He warned that structural...
China Trade Defies Iran War Drag as Exports, Imports Beat Estimates in May
China’s May trade data showed exports jumping 19.4% year‑on‑year and imports rising 27.4%, both surpassing Reuters forecasts. The export surge was led by AI‑related and renewable‑energy products, while import growth was concentrated in semiconductor chips and gold. Despite the trade...
Oil Prices May Hit $150 per Barrel Soon if Iran War Continues, Energy Economist Says
Oil could surge to $150 per barrel within months if the Iran‑U.S. conflict persists, according to Rystad Energy chief economist Claudio Galimberti. Brent is trading near $94 while global inventories sit at historically low levels. Galimberti argues that boosting the...
Trump Tariffs Steer Brazilian Timber From the US to Mexico
Brazil’s Paranaguá Container Terminal saw timber exports to Mexico jump 33% in Q1 2026, pushing Mexico ahead of the United States as the top destination. Overall North American shipments reached 231,900 tonnes, with timber accounting for 110,000 tonnes, the terminal’s largest commodity. The...
China’s Subsidy Machine Is Reshaping Global Capitalism
Governments worldwide are pouring record subsidies into strategic sectors, with the OECD reporting a $108 billion surge—the highest since the 2008‑09 crisis. China is outspending OECD peers by three to eight times, channeling roughly $47.5 billion into advanced semiconductors and solar manufacturing....
Inflation Could Top 4% This Week. The Bond Market Wants Fed Chair Warsh T...
Inflation is projected to hit 4.2% in May, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, intensifying pressure on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. A strong jobs report pushed tech stocks lower and lifted Treasury yields, with the 2‑year at 4.16%...
An Inflation Storm Is Brewing in the Pacific Ocean — and Your Portfolio I...
Investors expecting U.S. inflation to ease after the Iran conflict may be mistaken, as a powerful El Niño is projected to surge later this year. The climate phenomenon is set to tighten global commodity supplies, pushing food, energy and metal prices...
Consumers Are Trading Clothing Purchases for Trips to the Gas Station
The Iran war’s surge in gas prices is reshaping U.S. household budgets, prompting shoppers to prioritize fuel over new clothing. AI‑driven SoLo NowCAST data shows apparel’s share of general‑merchandise spending dropped 1.8 percentage points between February and April 2026, about...
With Fed Set to Meet Next Week, December's Rate Cut Now Looks Questionable
In December 2025 the Federal Reserve voted for a third consecutive rate cut despite growing dissent, a decision now viewed as premature. Subsequent data show core PCE inflation accelerating to 4.1% year‑over‑year and overall PCE at 5.5%, while the labor...
Nigeria’s Telecom Operators Dispute Data Showing Foreign Investment Collapse
Nigeria’s telecom sector saw foreign investment plunge 93% to $7.24 million in Q1 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, shrinking its share of total capital imports to 0.07%. The Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) disputes the figures,...
Rupiah’s Collapse Could Trigger a Political Crisis for Prabowo
Indonesia's rupiah breached a new low of 18,155 per US dollar on June 8, sparking fears of a broader crisis. The depreciation is inflating import‑dependent costs, driving up energy, food and transport prices for households. Rising inflation, stagnant wages and large‑scale...
Oil Price Falls Back and Markets Recovering After Iran Announces ‘End of Military Operations’ Against Israel – Business Live
Markets steadied after Tehran announced the end of its military operations against Israel, pulling Brent crude down to $94.58 a barrel from a brief $98 peak. European equities, led by the FTSE 100, edged higher, while bond yields fell across the...
Global Economic Implications of the 2026 Middle East War
A new study models two energy‑price shock scenarios stemming from a potential Middle East war: a one‑year oil surge to roughly $120 per barrel, and a three‑year prolonged elevation. Both cases depress global GDP in 2026 and lift inflation, but...
Higher Energy Prices Due to the Middle East War Would Slow Economic Growth Globally, Particularly in Emerging Markets
The 2026 Middle East war has pushed oil to roughly $120 a barrel and doubled LNG prices, creating a one‑year shock that drags global growth lower and lifts inflation. Emerging economies feel the brunt as fertilizer costs surge, cutting agricultural...
Oil Prices Surge as Iran Conflict Flares, While Global Stocks Skid on Selling of Tech Shares
Oil prices jumped more than $4 per barrel on Monday as Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, pushing Brent to $97.69 and U.S. crude to $94.67. Global equities fell sharply, led by an 8.3% plunge in South Korea’s Kospi after heavy...
DOJ Appeal Throws Fresh Uncertainty Into Tariff Refund Process
The U.S. Department of Justice filed an appeal on June 2 challenging a Court of International Trade order that mandated universal refunds for tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The appeal questions the court’s authority to extend relief...
Bank of Canada Set to Hold Rates as Economists Urge Patience Amid Mixed Signals
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% on June 8, even after a surprisingly strong May jobs report that added 88,000 positions and pushed the unemployment rate down to 6.6%. Economists view the data as...
Inflation Poses Bigger Risk than Growth This Fiscal as Monsoon and Crude Weigh on Rural Demand: Nuvama
India’s FY27 outlook is shifting from a growth‑centric view to an inflation‑driven slowdown, especially in rural areas. Nuvama projects headline CPI at about 5.7%, well above the RBI’s 4.6% target, as food prices rise amid delayed monsoon and high crude...
India Rupee Defense Lifts Key Forex Tool Past $110 Billion Mark
India’s central bank has pushed its net‑short dollar book to roughly $110‑115 billion, setting a fresh record across both on‑shore and off‑shore markets. The position rose sharply from $95.3 billion in April, eclipsing the previous high of $103.1 billion recorded the month before....
Houthis Enter the Fray as Israel and Iran Trade Missiles
Israel struck a petrochemical plant in Iran’s southwest and Tehran responded with missile attacks on northern Israel, marking the first direct clash since the April cease‑fire. The escalation prompted Yemen’s Houthi movement to announce a navigation ban on Israeli‑linked vessels...
Market Outlook for the Week of 8thst-12th June
The week ahead is light on major events, but markets will focus on a slate of data releases and central‑bank decisions. Australia’s Westpac sentiment index rose 3.5% in May, yet remains in the low‑80s, while the U.S. is set to...
China Sees Record Panda Bond Issuance in 2026 as Foreign Borrowers Pile In
Panda bond issuance in China surged to a record 136.5 billion yuan (about $19 billion) in the first five months of 2026, a 90.3% year‑on‑year increase. In May alone, 11 foreign issuers sold 14 bonds worth 26.64 billion yuan ($3.7 billion), with Kazakhstan and...
Solar Projects to Be Hit by Big Increase in Costs Due to New Australian Anti-Dumping Decision
The Australian government has announced a 48% anti‑dumping duty on hollow steel tubing imported from China, Taiwan, Malaysia and South Korea, a component critical for utility‑scale solar mounting systems. The tariff is retroactive to September 2023, meaning projects already built...
Goldman Sachs Pushes Fed Rate-Cut Call to 2027 on Strong US Jobs Data
Goldman Sachs now projects the Federal Reserve will keep policy rates unchanged through 2026 and only begin cutting in June and December 2027, a full year later than its prior outlook. The revision follows a surprisingly strong U.S. payrolls report...
Hormuz Strait Will Be Open but with Transit Fees, Iran Envoy to Moscow Quoted
The Strait of Hormuz will stay open, but Iran and Oman plan to levy transit fees, Iran’s ambassador to Moscow said. Fees will be calculated according to vessel type, cargo and prevailing conditions. The United States has warned Oman against...
Setting Sun: Japan's Car Makers Deprioritise Europe as China Races In
Nissan announced that Chinese firm Chery may take over one of the two production lines at its under‑utilised Sunderland plant, underscoring a broader retreat of Japanese automakers from Europe in favour of Japan, North America and China. Honda and Mitsubishi...
US CPI Leads High-Stakes Week as Fed Hike Expectations Build; ECB and BoC Meet
US CPI due Wednesday is forecast to climb to 4.2% year‑on‑year, with core inflation edging to 2.9%, reviving expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Fed funds futures now price a roughly 75% probability of at least one more increase...
Hong Kong Stocks Slump as AI Rallies in Asia Unwind on US Rate-Increase Anxiety
Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.8% as AI‑driven rallies unwound across Asia, dragging the Hang Seng Tech Index down 3.1% and mainland China's CSI 300 off 1.9%. The pullback was sparked by a blowout US jobs report that lifted Treasury yields...
One Global Shock, Many Inflation Paths: Inflation Persistence After the Great Moderation
Policymakers once believed the post‑COVID inflation surge was waning, but price levels and headline inflation have settled above pre‑pandemic norms. Research shows that economies differ sharply in inflation persistence, driven mainly by their historical inflation experience and the magnitude of...
Malaysia Secures RM92.8 Billion In Approved Investments In Q1 2026
Malaysia recorded RM92.8 bn (≈ $20.6 bn) of approved investments in Q1 2026, creating 50,226 jobs – a 46.7% rise from the same period last year. Foreign investors contributed RM56.2 bn (≈ $12.5 bn), accounting for 60.5% of total approvals, while domestic investment grew 13% to RM36.6 bn...
OPEC+ Raises Output Targets for Fourth Straight Month Despite Hormuz Crisis Crippling Actual Supply
OPEC+ announced a fourth straight monthly increase in production quotas, lifting the July target by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd). The move follows a dramatic drop in actual output as the US‑Iran conflict has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz,...
Iran War Has Cost U.S. Families $100 Billion
Moody's Analytics estimates the Iran war has imposed roughly $100 billion in extra costs on U.S. households, translating to about $750 per family. The figure combines higher military spending and surging oil prices after the United States and Israel launched operations...
'Making in Russia for India' Eyes Fertilisers, Critical Mineral Mining JVs
India’s ambassador to Moscow unveiled a "Making in Russia for India" strategy that seeks joint‑venture projects in fertilizers, critical minerals and mining. A flagship urea plant in Russia will churn out 2 million tonnes a year, earmarked entirely for export to...
Trump Pushes Back Against Fed Rate-Hike Bets Following Strong US Jobs Report
President Donald Trump told NBC’s Meet the Press that the Federal Reserve would be mistaken to raise interest rates, even as a stronger‑than‑expected May jobs report fuels market expectations of tighter policy. He urged Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is...
Philippines and Vietnam: Partners for a Changing Asia
Vietnamese President Tô Lâm’s state visit to the Philippines culminated in the two nations elevating their relationship to an Enhanced Strategic Partnership, the first such pact the Philippines has signed with a Southeast Asian neighbor. The agreement broadens cooperation across...
Bank Lending Surges to 9-Month High as Business Demand Rebounds
Bank lending in the Philippines surged 11.4% in April, the quickest expansion in nine months, driven by a sharp rebound in corporate credit demand and steady household spending. Loans to residents rose to 11.8% while business‑related lending jumped 10.7%, outpacing...
Professional Forecasters’ FY27 Real GDP Estimate of 6.5% a Shade Lower than RBI
India’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) projects FY27 real GDP growth at 6.5%, a shade below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 6.6% estimate, while forecasting headline inflation at 4.9%, lower than the RBI’s 5.1% outlook. The median repo rate...
India Must Not Let US Section 301 Threats Push It Into a Lopsided Trade Deal: Experts
India faces a proposed 12.5% tariff on goods linked to alleged forced labour, a measure that experts say breaches WTO rules. The United States is also threatening an 18% Section 301 tariff on a broad range of Indian exports unless a...
Newsquawk Week in Focus: US CPI, OPEC, AAPL WWDC, BoC, ECB, UK GDP and Chinese Inflation
The week’s outlook centers on Apple’s WWDC 2026, where the company is expected to unveil a standalone Siri app and broader AI integration, marking CEO Tim Cook’s likely final keynote. Central banks dominate the calendar, with the Bank of Canada...
Hormuz Crisis Fuels Fresh Inflation Fears as Energy Strain Deepens
OPEC+ is set to approve a fourth consecutive monthly increase in production targets even as actual output has slumped from 42.77 million barrels per day in February to 33.19 million in April due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The ongoing disruption...
A Stock Trader’s Guide to the Start of ECB Interest Rate Hikes
European traders must now factor the European Central Bank’s anticipated 0.25 percentage‑point hike into portfolio decisions. The market has already priced in the move, but at least two more increases are expected before year‑end, creating sector‑specific pressure. Banks, especially Irish and...
How Geopolitical Flashpoints Are Spurring Global Supply Chain Diversification
Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions are prompting firms to abandon single‑source models in favor of diversified, regional supply chains. India is capitalising on the China+1 trend, positioning itself as a manufacturing and specialty‑chemicals hub for electronics, engineering and agri‑chemicals. Companies...
JAPAN'S TRAVEL SECTOR BOOSTS THE ECONOMY
Japan’s travel and tourism sector posted strong growth in 2025, with gross bookings climbing 8% to $94.2 billion. Inbound visitor arrivals hit a record 42.7 million, far exceeding the 14.7 million outbound trips by Japanese residents. The industry now contributes roughly 7‑8% of...
How a $35 Trillion Market Is Quietly Repricing America’s Financial Power
Central banks have pushed gold to about 27% of global reserves, surpassing U.S. Treasuries for the first time. The shift reflects growing geopolitical and sanction concerns, with buyers such as China, Poland, Turkey, India and even the stablecoin issuer Tether...
Turks Cannot Be Made to Believe Inflation Will Come Down, Says Veteran Economist
Turkey's official inflation rose to 33% in June, highlighting the difficulty of convincing the public that price growth will ease, veteran economist Mustafa Sonmez said. The government’s demand‑focused disinflation program cut inflation from 38% to 33% but supply‑side pressures—food at...
ECB Steps Up as G7’s Lead Hawk With Interest-Rate Hike Primed
The European Central Bank is poised to lift its benchmark rate by a quarter‑point on Thursday, marking the most pronounced tightening move among the G7 this cycle. The hike is driven by heightened inflationary pressure linked to the ongoing Iran...