EU Trade Chief Swipes at China’s Overcapacity, but Seeks ‘Meaningful’ Talks with Beijing
EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic called for practical, result‑oriented dialogue with China after meeting Li Chenggang at the OECD in Paris, warning that Chinese overcapacity and non‑market practices are distorting global markets. He highlighted the EU’s growing trade deficit with China of roughly €1 billion (US$1.16 billion) a day and stressed the need for concrete outcomes. Both sides are preparing for a Brussels meeting later this month with Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao, aiming to streamline the current 60‑group framework into a manageable platform. China dismissed the OECD subsidy report as one‑sided, underscoring diplomatic friction.
MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft
MacroVoices episode #535 features former Treasury official Michael Every discussing the Federal Reserve’s direction under Kevin Warsh, China’s expanding role in the global oil market, and how the upcoming U.S. midterm elections could reshape commodity prices. The conversation also dives...
On the Right Track
The Middle East conflict jolted global oil markets, exposing the Philippines’ heavy reliance on imported crude—about 98% from the region—and driving inflation above 7%. In response, the government is accelerating a shift toward indigenous renewables such as solar, wind, hydro,...
Fed's Daly: Policy Is in a Good Place and We Are Prepared to Respond Either Way
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Daly told investors that forward guidance is limited right now and the Fed’s policy stance is "in a good place," but she stopped short of confirming the current rate path. Daly acknowledged uncertainty about how the economy...
Trump Order Directs Customs to Crack Down on Tariff Cheats
President Donald Trump signed an executive order on June 3 directing U.S. Customs and Border Protection to tighten enforcement against tariff evasion and forced‑labor imports. The order mandates new AI‑driven shipment tracking, stricter reporting of importers‑of‑record, and tighter bond requirements to...
Trump’s Empire of Debt
The Financial Times argues that the United States is edging toward imperial overstretch as successive wars have been financed almost entirely by borrowing, pushing public debt toward its highest post‑World War II level. President Trump has asked Congress for a $1.5 trillion...
Mexico Investment Extends One of Longest Slumps in Decades
Mexico's gross fixed investment continued its multi‑month decline in March, falling 3.1% from a year earlier. The contraction follows a 3.5% drop in February, extending the longest investment slump in decades. The downturn reflects heightened uncertainty over domestic policy choices...
Outdated Payments Cost Singapore $7 Billion
Airwallex and the Centre for Economics and Business Research report that Singapore’s businesses lose roughly $7 billion each year because legacy cross‑border payment systems impose high fees, FX spreads and settlement delays. The study labels these hidden costs the “Global Growth...
EU Pledges Aid to Armenia, Accuses Russia of Economic Coercion
The European Union announced more than €50 million (about $55 million) in immediate aid for Armenia after Moscow imposed new trade restrictions, particularly on agri‑food products like flowers. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyden pledged assistance to diversify Armenian exports and support infrastructure...
Why Exclude Food and Energy From Inflation Measures? : Explaining Core PCE
The Federal Reserve relies on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index as its preferred inflation gauge, with a particular focus on the core PCE that strips out food and energy components. Food and energy prices are prone to sharp,...
Chinese Carmakers BYD, Chery Chart 80% Growth Overseas as EV Demand Spikes
Chinese automakers BYD and Chery are accelerating overseas sales as global EV demand spikes. In May, Chery shipped 181,571 vehicles abroad, an 81% year‑on‑year increase, while BYD delivered 160,177 units overseas, also up 81% and accounting for 42% of its...
Piero Cipollone: Europe's Money Evolves so People's Freedom to Pay Remains
ECB policymaker Piero Cipollone highlighted recent progress on the digital euro, noting that the Single Currency Package is moving through the ECON Committee and awaits a European Parliament position. He stressed that cash remains a core freedom, welcoming legislation that...
Kazuo Ueda: Economic Activity and Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that the recent surge in Middle‑East‑driven crude‑oil prices is adding inflationary pressure to Japan’s economy. He compared the current shock to past oil crises of the 1970s, the mid‑2000s boom, and the 2022...
Isabel Schnabel: From Money Market Funds to Stablecoins - Lessons for Central Banks
In a recent BIS speech, Isabel Schnabel warned that the rapid expansion of stablecoins—privately issued digital tokens pegged to fiat—poses fresh challenges for monetary authorities. She drew a historical parallel to the Bank of Amsterdam’s "bank money," an early form...
As India Rises in Critical Minerals Race, Can It Dent China’s Dominance?
India and the United States signed a framework agreement on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earths, aiming to reduce reliance on China’s dominant supply chain. The pact follows a $20 billion Quad initiative and includes provisions for joint mining,...
Wealthy Families Are Using Geopolitics as a Catalyst to Rethink Not Just Portfolios, but Purpose
AlTi Tiedemann Global’s co‑head of US client advisory, Kimberly Evans, says ultra‑high‑net‑worth families are using heightened geopolitical risk to rethink both portfolio composition and the purpose behind their wealth. Clients are increasingly refusing exposure to regions or industries that clash...
Piero Cipollone: Money in the Digital Age
Central banks have long issued stable, trusted money, but the digital revolution is reshaping how consumers pay and how financial services operate. As digital wallets, fintech platforms, and instant settlement networks proliferate, central bank money risks becoming a legacy relic...
The Iran War Is Fueling a Global Debt Shock
The war in Iran has sent oil, gas and food prices soaring, turning a price shock into a debt shock for many developing economies. Governments across the Global South now face sharply higher borrowing costs as investors demand higher yields....
The Promise and Limits of the New G20 Template for Debt Restructuring
On May 27 the G20 published an illustrative template memorandum of understanding to guide future sovereign debt restructurings with official bilateral creditors under the Common Framework. The document spells out a step‑by‑step process involving an Official Creditor Committee, an IMF...
UK to Challenge EU over ‘Devastating’ Plans to Almost Halve Tariff-Free Steel Import Quotas
The European Union plans to slash tariff‑free steel import quotas from the United Kingdom by 47% compared with 2024 levels, prompting UK Business Secretary Peter Kyle to raise the issue with EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič. The UK has responded...
India’s Plunging Rupee Puts Surprise Rate Hike Bets on the Table
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is weighing a surprise rate hike as the rupee slides to record lows against the dollar. While most economists expect a hold at the 5.25% policy rate, a minority anticipate a move to curb...
Bank of Japan Expected to Raise Rates This Month, Sources Say
The Bank of Japan is poised to raise its short‑term policy rate to 1% at the June 16 meeting, up from 0.75%, marking the highest level since 1995. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent remarks have solidified expectations for a June hike,...
Mint Explainer | Why Has the US Proposed Fresh Tariffs on India?
The United States announced a new 12.5% tariff on Indian imports under Section 301 of the Trade Act, targeting goods linked to forced‑labour and excess industrial capacity. The move comes as the two nations near a bilateral trade agreement, raising questions...
GovGurus Episode 20 – Headwinds & Liquidity
In GovGurus Episode 20, host J. Richard Jones and Canadian Government Executive Editor‑in‑Chief Lori Turnbull dissect the Bank of Canada’s latest Financial Stability Report, highlighting rising household costs, mortgage strain, and waning investor confidence as warning signs of a possible...
Global Market: Japanese Bond Yields Mixed as BOJ Rate-Hike Expectations and Inflation Concerns Shape Sentiment
Japanese government bond yields moved in opposite directions on Thursday as the 10‑year benchmark edged up 0.5 basis points to 2.645% while the two‑year rose 1 basis point to 1.410%, marking its second consecutive gain. The moves reflect growing market...
Slumping Chinese Oil Imports ‘Shield’ Global Market From Higher Prices
China’s oil imports have dropped sharply, falling about 15% year‑on‑year in the first half of 2024. The decline has removed a major source of demand, helping to keep Brent and WTI prices below levels that would have otherwise risen amid...
Iran Oil Exports Plunge over 90% as US Blockade Bites
Iran’s seaborne oil exports collapsed by 93% in May, falling to 2.01 million barrels from 29.7 million in April, after the U.S. blockade line was enforced on 13 April. The crackdown forced a shift from VLCC crude shipments to smaller Panamax and Handymax...
Record Singapore-US Rate Gap May Widen Further on Inflows and Hawkish Fed Outlook
The two‑year Singapore dollar swap is now 246 basis points below its U.S. counterpart, the widest gap recorded since 2020. Strong economic growth and safe‑haven inflows have kept Singapore’s liquidity ample, pushing its overnight rate to a nine‑month low and...
The Commodities Feed: Dwindling Oil Inventories Leave Market Increasingly Vulnerable
U.S. commercial crude inventories dropped 7.97 million barrels last week, widening the 32‑million‑barrel draw over six weeks, while strategic‑reserve releases push the total decline to 15.97 million barrels. The tightening stockpiles come amid renewed Persian Gulf tensions that have lifted oil prices...
Kyodo News Digest: June 4, 2026
The U.S. Trade Representative announced a proposal to impose an additional 12.5% tariff on imports from Japan, China, South Korea and more than 40 other nations, citing concerns over forced‑labor goods. In Japan, Yamada Holdings and Edion Corp are moving...
Trump Administration Turns to a New Rationale to Justify Old Tariffs
The Trump administration announced a new set of tariffs ranging from 10 percent to 12.5 percent on imports from 59 countries and the European Union, citing forced‑labor concerns. The measures will be imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a...
USTR Proposes Additional Tariffs on Certain Nations, Citing Failure to Impose or Enforce Ban on Forced Labor
The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced a proposal to impose additional tariffs on several countries that have not enforced or instituted bans on forced labor. The move follows the 2021 Executive Order targeting products made with forced labor and expands...
USTR Proposes New Section 301 Tariffs on 60 Countries as Section 122 Duties Near Expiration
The U.S. Trade Representative announced a new Section 301 tariff regime targeting 60 countries as the temporary 10 percent Section 122 duties expire in late July. Countries with a forced‑labor import ban would face a 10 percent levy, while others would be hit with...
OECD Sees India Growth Slowing to 6.3% From 7.6% in FY27
The OECD projects India’s GDP growth will decelerate to 6.3% in fiscal 2027, down from 7.6% in FY26. The slowdown is driven by higher energy costs linked to the Middle‑East conflict, which will pressure investment, exports and private consumption. Inflation...
USTR Proposes Tariffs on 60 Trading Partners over Forced Labor Policies
The U.S. Trade Representative is proposing Section 301 tariffs of 10 % to 12.5 % on a broad range of imports from 60 economies that have not adequately blocked goods made with forced labor. Fourteen partners—including Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the...
US Eyes New Tariffs on Phlilippines 59 Countries
The U.S. Trade Representative announced a proposal to impose additional duties of 10 to 12.5 percent on goods from the Philippines and 59 other economies that have not effectively blocked imports made with forced labor. The Philippines, already subject to a 10 percent baseline...
New U.S. Tariff Proposal Takes Aim at Forced Labor Goods From 60 Countries
The U.S. Trade Representative has unveiled a tiered tariff proposal targeting imports from 60 economies that fail to enforce forced‑labor bans, imposing a 10% duty on countries with enforcement commitments and 12.5% on others. Canada, despite CUSMA obligations, is slated...
New Forecasts Lay Out 2 Rocky Paths for Global Economy
The OECD’s latest outlook splits the global economy into two divergent paths driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict. If the war ends quickly, worldwide growth would modestly slow to about 2.8% this year, while a prolonged fight could push growth down...
Carney Says CUSMA Exemption Shields Most Canadian Trade From New U.S. Tariffs
Prime Minister Mark Carney said the United States’ proposed 10% tariff on forced‑labour goods will have little practical effect on Canada because the Canada‑U.S.–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) contains a carve‑out that exempts compliant Canadian exports. The tariff, announced by the U.S....
Global Trade Imbalances Have Changed Since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Now They Reflect New Risks
Global trade imbalances have shifted since the 2008 crisis, moving from debt‑driven excess to geopolitically driven disparities. The United States’ current‑account deficit has contracted to about 0.9% of global GDP, while China’s surplus has risen to 0.8%, surpassing its pre‑crisis...
OECD Warns Slowing Growth, Wage Pressure Will Test Canadian Employers
The OECD’s 2026 Economic Outlook predicts Canada’s GDP growth will slow from 1.7 % in 2025 to 1.2 % in 2026 before a modest rebound. The deceleration is linked to higher energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and a global slowdown to 2.8 % growth....
European Union Outlines Plan to Reduce Dependence on American Tech
The European Union unveiled a sweeping technology‑sovereignty package that tightens rules on cloud computing, accelerates data‑center construction, and revives its semiconductor sector. The proposal, known as the Cloud and AI Development Act and Chips Act 2.0, would favor domestic suppliers and...
Dollar Rises as Markets Price Out Quick Iran Deal and Price In Higher Fed Rates
The U.S. dollar rallied as markets doubted a swift U.S.-Iran nuclear deal and absorbed stronger‑than‑expected U.S. employment data. Brent crude climbed above $98 per barrel, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk and feeding inflation concerns. ADP reported a 122,000‑job increase in May,...
BOJ Chief Says Rate Hike Must Be Discussed Despite Iran War Uncertainty
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will thoroughly debate a policy‑rate hike at its June 15‑16 meeting, despite lingering uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. He warned that rising crude‑oil prices could trigger a faster‑than‑expected pass‑through...
Lesetja Kganyago: Managing Supply Shocks - the Role of Monetary Policy
South Africa’s central bank raised its repo rate from 6.75% to 7% as supply‑side shocks intensify. Persistent oil price spikes from the closed Strait of Hormuz, fertiliser shortages, and rising diesel costs are driving up food‑price inflation. Farmers warn that...
Fabio Panetta: Overview of Economic and Financial Developments in Italy
Fabio Panetta highlighted that the global economy proved unexpectedly resilient last year, posting 3.4% GDP growth—half a percentage point above forecasts. The United States grew over 2%, propelled by AI‑driven data‑center construction and rising equity valuations, while China added 5%...
Russia Tells France to Free Tanker Captain It Says Was Detained on False Charges
Russia has demanded that France release the captain of the tanker Tagor, which French authorities detained on what Moscow describes as fabricated charges. France’s navy intercepted the sanctioned vessel in the Atlantic and ordered it to French waters, a move...
A Rate Hike and Then What? Our ECB Preview
The European Central Bank is expected to raise the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% at its June 11 meeting, framing the move as an insurance hike rather than a aggressive tightening cycle. Inflation in the eurozone is...
Who Really Controls the Fed Board?
Kevin Warsh has taken over as Federal Reserve Chair while former chair Jerome Powell remains on the Board, creating a rare power dynamic. The Fed’s bylaws do not explicitly grant the chair agenda‑setting authority, leaving the role largely governed by...
Philip N Jefferson: Global Economic Developments and the US Economy
Federal Reserve Governor Philip N. Jefferson addressed the Bank of Japan, flagging three global forces shaping the outlook: soaring energy prices from the Middle East conflict, rapid advances in artificial intelligence, and lingering trade‑flow disruptions. He noted that while U.S....